I'll be posting my movie reviews later this week, but for the time being they're delayed as the Oscar announcement will be Tuesday morning, and it's time for me to make my final projections on who will get nominated. For those who follow my twitter, it will come to no surprise to them that I have been following all the other Awards and nominations that have been anounced and handed out, hoping to see who will get nominated. I would prefer to have watched all the movies by now, instead, but it'll have to do. For most of the Awards, I've written out long lists of all those who seem like possible nominees, people who've been nominated for other awards this year for instance, but there is always a possibility that the Academy might go somewhere completely different in one or many of these categories. It's not unprecedent, the Academy members do have minds of their own, unfortunately. That's a long way for me to tell everyone that, I could just as easily be dead wrong on all these picks, and probably am. But its fun to see if I can get one or two categories right. So, my two cents, and here's the tea leaves I'm about to read. Lets start with the big one and go down this time.
Last year, I actually did predict all ten! It was also fairly easy to predict it, everybody had pretty much narrowed the possibilities to 11. Anyway, this year it's incredibly tricky. The rules been changed so that nobody knows exactly how many films will get nominated, it'll be between 5 and 10 films, and how to determine this is through the voting process in a manner that long, boring and hard to explain. So, this'll be by far, the toughest category to project the nominees, but there's a few ones that are definitely in. "The Artist",
"The Descendants", "Hugo," and "Midnight in Paris" have been nominated by practically every award show so far, they're sure-fire Best Picture nominees. After that it's a little tricky.
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"The Tree of Life"
IF THERE'S MORE, THAN THEY'LL BE...
I think the top eight are gonna get in. I'm not 100% positive on any of the other four, but I'm sure enough. The least likely of those is "The Tree of Life", probably the film that has divided people the most, but I think it's getting in. "The Help," also seems to be constantly sneaking into most Best Picture Awards and considerations, but I wouldn't be shocked if it's left off either. "Moneyball," is stronger in other in other categories, but in the end, it'll get in. "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," has made the biggest jump in recent weeks. It wasn't considered a major candidate for this category, but David Fincher got a very surprising DGA nomination, which caught a lot of people off-guard, plus it's been getting nomination from other groups as well. So, I'm predicting 8 nominations for Best Picture. Although "War Horse," getting in wouldn't shock me, but it went from being almost guarantee nomination, to barely making my long ballot. If there's 9, then it gets in, and 10 I think "Drive," could get the tenth nomination.
The Ides of March
I don't know what it is with this category, but I see only three guaranteed nominations, and I'm completely baffled on who's getting the fourth and fifth. Clooney, Dujardin, and Pitt, are all guaranteed nominees to me. After that, it could really be almost anybody. I'm still thinking that one of the nominees might be completely off my own board. I think I got every probable option here, but it sure feels like someone is missing here.
Demian Bichir-"A Better Life"
George Clooney-"The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin-"The Artist"
I don't quite know how that just happened, but I typed in Demian Bichir's name. "A Better Life," is a very small Indy feature, that earned him both a Spirit Award nomination, and a very surprising SAG nomination so far. I was trying to type in Leonardo DiCaprio for "J. Edgar," but something was stopping me. "J. Edgar," hasn't been particularly popular, but he's been getting nominated for it, yet something has never felt permanent about his name showing up. I wasn't sure about Fassbender either, but after his BAFTA nomination, I think that puts him in. I haven't seen the movie yet, can't really judge or explain or project, but something just tells me that he might be the strange name I'm missing here.
For a while, I still though Michael Shannon might be the name that snuck in, but practically every Award show for the last two months has avoided him. Ryan Gosling suffers from a split vote, (An actor can only be nominated for one film in one category) and I don't see enough people singling out one over the other, and over the other candidates to nominate him this year. Gary Oldman might get it too. He's never been nominated, and the BAFTAs loved "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy," although most American Awards have been ignoring it in most categories. The rest are long, longshots, but I can't eliminate them completely.
This is another category where the fifth nomination can come from anywhere. Viola Davis, Meryl Streep, and Michelle Williams, are all walking into nominations here, and Tilda Swinton has become a frontrunner as well. The BAFTAs also through a curveball into the category by nominating Berenice Bejo as Lead Actress, when every other Award show 'til now, has had her in Supporting Actress. She's a shoe-in to get nominated, but now the question is which category. (The rule states that if a performer gets vote for the same performance in both Lead and Supporting categories, than the category that got the most votes gets the nomination) The BAFTAs have done this before. A couple years ago, Kate Winslet was winning Supporting Actress for "The Reader," at most awards shows (Partly because there was a push to nominate her for lead actress for "Revolutionary Road") and the BAFTAs put her in the lead category, and the Oscars surprised everybody by following suit. (Winslet won that Oscar for "The Reader")
Viola Davis-"The Help"
Rooney Mara-"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep-"The Iron Lady"
Tilda Swinton-"We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Michelle Williams-"My Week with Marilyn"
I can see about seven or eight different names actually sneaking in and getting a nomination, but based on how well "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," has suddenly been doing, I think it's a fair guess that Rooney Mara is the one that's gonna steal that fifth nomination, especially if it gets a Best Picture, which I think it will. I didn't think it about a month, but I mentioned that that film had one of the biggest opportunities for a push, and man, I think it's gotten the biggest one so far.
If it isn't Rooney Mara getting in, it'll probably be Glenn Close, but I'm skeptical, despite many important nominations she's been getting. Kirsten Dunst, is an interesting one here, Foreign Awards have been remembering her in "Melancholia," I think it's more likely than some think. I think ultimately Bejo will land in Supporting, but she might steal it too. I think Mia Wasikowska for "Jane Eyre," is still in some of the Academy's minds as well. This'll be a close fifth nomination vote.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I think there's some possibilities for one or two people outside of the top five to get in, but this category looks locked up to me. At pretty much every Award show, at least four of these names have been nominated when they were eligible.
Kenneth Branagh-"My Week with Marilyn"
They oddly enough haven't all shown up at once until now, but most of them have always been there. Branagh, Brooks and Plummer have split the Awards, although Plummer is taking most of them. I think Jonah Hill might be the one that could be left off, but it's not looking like it.
Corey Stoll-“Midnight in Paris”
If somebody isn't on there, I wouldn't be shocked if Brad Pitt gets in for "The Tree of Life," making him a double nominee. It's not really likely, but I think that's more likely than people think. I think a certain amount of his "Moneyball," vote, is also for "Tree of Life," there might be a double nominee there. There's some worthy possibilities here, but it just doesn't seem like somebody else can get in. The Top five look set to me; I'll be shocked if I got any of these names wrong.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I'm having the hardest time trying to figure out which film Jessica Chastain is gonna get in this category. I think "The Help," is the likeliest, but it's split with "The Tree of Life," and "Take Shelter," and her co-star Octavia Spencer, not only looks like a lock, along with Berenice Bejo and Melissa McCarthy, but she might be the favorite to win, and I'm just not sold everybody likes "The Help," that much.
Berenice Bejo-"The Artist"
Janet McTeer-"Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer-"The Help"
Shailene Woodley-"The Descendants"
I've been looking around thinking Shailene Woodley was going to be the name that gets many nominations before falling off the ballot, but now I think it's going to be Jessica Chastain, be unfortunately punished for being good in too many movies. This will sneak Janet McTeer in. I don't think "The Help," is getting a two spots in the category.
Carey Mulligan is also suffering from two performances. It looked she was getting in for "Shame," for a while, but she didn't get a BAFTA which I thought would propel her for that film. She did, surprisingly get the BAFTA for "Drive," however. That just made it less likely she'd get nominated here. I'm still personally holding out hope that Judy Greer will get in for "The Descendants", but I think ultimately, it's going to suffer for being too small a role.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I didn't talk about this category yet, but I'm going through all of them this time. It looks like this category is going to Woody Allen, that's a given, and Michel Hazanvicius is getting nominated, but after that, it's a little tricky. The WGA awards don't always coincide here, and there's usually one or two surprises here.
The Artist-Michel Hazanavicius
Midnight in Paris-Woody Allen
A Separation-Asghar Farhadi
Young Adult-Diablo Cody
I've been thinking up 'til now that "50/50" won't sneak in here, but it seems to be the most consistently nominated other than "Midnight in Paris". "The Artist," didn't get a WGA nomination, which is the most peculiar of misses for the film that seems to be winning everything up 'til now. I have a hard time imagining it not sneaking in to this category. I also think "Young Adult," will get the nomination here, while it'll just fall short in the acting categories. I'm throwing in "A Separation," here too, as a hunch. Well-respected foreign films have a way of sneaking into the writing categories. If it's got a shot of something outside of Foreign Language Film, it's here.