Friday, August 22, 2014

2014 PRIMETIME EMMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS, THOUGHTS AND PREFERENCES!



Well, it's almost, Emmy Weekend Long Weekend-ending-on-a-, working Monday time again (Thanks NFL for ruining Emmy Weekend. How come your Super Bowl's never on a Tuesday afternoon?), and this year, everybody's a bit unsure on the final outcome after last year's thoroughly unpredictable Emmy had everyone scratching their heads. Except for me of course, and for the third straight year, I was the only person to correctly predict the winners of each and every Primetime Emmy Award categories last year, (Applause) Thank you, thank you, and this year, I plan and have every confidence that I will once again be perfect once again in my predictions.

(LAWYER'S NOTE: David Baruffi reserves the right to change or alter any/all of these picks at any time prior to, during, and/or after the 2014 Primetime Emmy Awards broadcast from now until the end of time.)

A few of the big awards have already been given out at the Creative Arts Emmys, and for those who wonder about the accuracy of those predictions, I made several of them on my twitter shortly before the ceremony before listening to GoldDerby.com Emmys hangout live, and btw, I'm open to doing more and more Google Hangouts nowadays, so I'm gonna be trying to participate in more of those as time goes on. So, follow me on Twitter, and let me know if there's an interesting film/tv/entertainment related hangout, to get even more of my analysis, in a new additional medium and forum. (If I am in any future hangouts that are posted on Youtube, I'll post a link on the FB page, and in the future, I'll do that on Twitter too. Whew, a lot of social media to sort through as this blog keeps getting bigger and bigger.) Anyway, to get you all ready, if you weren't already for the big night, we're gonna go over every category they'll award on Monday night, and a few other they already did. Happy Emmy Weekend, (Eye roll) everybody, and good luck Mr. Meyers.


COMEDY SERIES
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
The Big Bang Theory-CBS
Louie-FX Networks
Modern Family-ABC
Orange is the New Black-Netflix
Silicon Valley-HBO
Veep-HBO

If "Modern Family" wins again, and it is a favorite until somebody knocks it off btw, it'll tie the record with "Frasier" for wins and most consecutive wins in the category; "Frasier" won 5, and in a row they won 5, and only "All in the Family" and "Cheers" have four, and they didn't win theirs consecutively. And "Modern Family", had a big season this year; I wasn't watching it, frankly. I grew tired of the show 3-4 years ago honestly, and am frankly befuddled that it keeps winning and I think they're fairly sick of winning it also. The two likeliest to pull off the upset, are probably "Orange is the New Black" and "Veep". "Orange..." the newcomer, from Netflix, they got a lot of nominations, that said, who knows how many watched it on Netflix. "Veep", frankly I think is an overrated show, and I've discussed my reasoning on that before, but the Academy likes it; it's been nominated every year and it's done better every year, so it has to be considered. "Louie", if it wasn't gonna win last year when it had the momentum, then I don't think it'll ever win. "The Big Bang Theory" because they haven't won, is probably the show I'm most cheering for, despite this being a relatively weaker season, but I wouldn't be shocked if next it won finally. It is the biggest show on TV, certainly the biggest comedy, and it's the only one I consistently find funny. I think "Silicon Valley",- I won't discount it completely, but I got five episodes in a had to stop. And "Girls" should've been the winner this year, wasn't nominated and that's shameful that we're arguing and discussing between lesser HBO shows, when it should've won easily, and "Parks and Recreation" and "How I Met Your Mother"'s snubs, eh, frankly a bit ridiculous too, but it a tight race this year, that said, if "Modern Family" wins again their will be boos.

PREDICTION: "Veep"
PREFERENCE: "The Big Bang Theory"

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Louis C.K.-"Louis"-FX Networks
Don Cheadle-"House of Lies"-Showtime
Ricky Gervais-"Derek"-Netflix
Matt LeBlanc-"Episodes"-Showtime
William H. Macy-"Shameless"-Showtime
Jim Parsons-"The Big Bang Theory"-CBS

How weird is it that one network has three nominees in this category, and that none of that networks shows, including the three are nominated for Best Series? How weird is it that I said that and I was talking about Showtime being the network? Jim Parsons, the favorite again, and if he wins, he will tie the record, of 4 Emmy Wins for a Lead Actor, I believe with Kelsey Grammer and perhaps others. It's also tradition btw, that after a particular actor wins enough times for the same role then they ought to take their name out, but no word on Parsons with that. He's the favorite, although late coming-up, is Ricky Gervais, for "Derek", which apparently, is catching people's eyes because of the episode he submitted, so that is gonna be interesting. Remember, he won this category in an upset before, for "Extras", it was such an upset he didn't even show up to collect the award, and he is an Emmy favorite, with 2 wins an 21 total nominations, over all his series, and that's including the American version of "The Office", I think it'd be very wrong to discount him here. The other interesting name is William H. Macy, 'cause among all the confusions regarding what show goes into what category this year, "Shameless" switched categories from Drama to Comedy this year; never nominated as a drama but nominated in the comedy category, and Macy is a beloved actor, he's won Emmys before for TV movies and guest spots I think, so he's a name that's gonna be interesting. Louis C.K., probably more likely to win in another category than acting unfortunately. Cheadle, gets his obligatory nomination, no other major love for "House of Lies", almost the same with LeBlanc, although I think "Episodes" did sneak in elsewhere. Generally though, I'm thinking it's between Parsons and Gervais; I have a hard time imagining a third sneaking in, although this is the Emmys so who knows, but that's where I'm leaning.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Jim Parsons-"The Big Bang Theory"

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Lena Dunham-"Girls"-HBO
Edie Falco-"Nurse Jackie"-Showtime
Julia Louis-Dreyfus-"Veep"-HBO
Melissa McCarthy-"Mike & Molly"-HBO
Amy Poehler-"Parks and Recreation"-NBC
Taylor Schilling-"Orange is the New Black"-Netflix

As much as my disdain is for "Veep", I can't deny just how good the acting on the show is, and it's pretty special, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus certainly to keeps winning Emmys and the Academy wants to give them to her, so that's probably gonna happen. If there's an it's Taylor Schilling or Amy Poehler, and I hope it's Amy Poehler, 'cause it's just completely absurd and ridiculous now. Edie Falco, and I love "Nurse Jackie", glad she's in, although, it's another continuous just nominating her to nominate her thing. Melissa McCarthy's nomination sorta interesting, 'cause she fell out of the nominations last year in favor of Laura Dern for the now-cancelled "Enlightened", so she's a bit of an anomaly, and she is the only thing holding that show together most of the time, although I do like some of the other actresses on there, and there's a rumbling that her episode might pull off her second upset in this category, so let's not be shocked by that again, but still a longshot. Lena Dunham, as I have said, I thought should've won easily everything year, so I have a soft spot for Lena Dunham as well, but I know the Academy, I can't see the scenario where she gets in.

PREDICTION: Julia-Louis Dreyfus-"Veep"
PREFERENCE: Amy Poehler-"Parks and Recreation"

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Fred Armisen-"Portlandia"-IFC
Andre Braugher-"Brooklyn Nine-Nine"-FOX
Ty Burrell-"Modern Family"-ABC
Adam Driver-"Girls"-HBO
Jesse Tyler Ferguson-"Modern Family"-ABC
Tony Hale-"Veep"-HBO

Well, Ed O'Neill not nominated, is- well, that's what it is, and they better give him something soon, 'cause this is really ridiculous now. Like Bob Newhart ridiculous last year, when he finally won his first Emmy. That said, close race overall here I think. Tony Hale won last year, he might win again for "Veep", although he had the benefit of an "Arrested Development" season also, and he doesn't have that this year. Fred Armisen's is an interesting nomination, because he's almost technically a lead for "Portlandia", but because it's a Variety Series technically, he's not eligible in that category, so body of work, throughout an episode, might give it to him, but then again, it hasn't helped any "SNL" nominees in recent years either. Andre Braugher's an Emmy favorite, and I like "Brooklyn Nine-Nine", and I like him on it. I'm not necessarily as amazed he can pull that character off, but I'm glad he got in especially since that show, was the big disappointment on nomination day. It had won the Golden Globe, earlier and Andy Samberg, also snubbed, had won, the Globe, most people had it getting in, very shocked that it didn't get more at least. Pretty funny show as well, I think it's a bit "Barney Miller" meets "30 Rock", and I appreciate that. So he's got a decent chance; I like Adam Driver too, I'm not sure that was the very best episode, but I think it was a very good one he's in for. He's very underrated on that show, despite this being his second straight nomination, especially after Merritt Weaver last year, I would not be shocked if he got in. But I do tend to think, it's between Braugher, Hale, and Ferguson, although Ty Burrell won the SAG Award earlier this year, and that was weird, 'cause normally they don't give that to a supporting role; (The SAGs, don't do Supporting for Television for some reason) and he was up against four leads, so that's got me worried, and he's won before, so it's not impossible here. But I think Jesse Tyler Ferguson, who's been nominated every year for the show, and especially for this year, since the show centered so much around him, I have a strong feeling that he's probably getting in for this one. Not 100% by any means, and I won't be shocked by an upset, but if there's a chance that "Modern Family" could win a main acting Emmy, I think that's your best bet. If Tony Hale wins again, that's a predictor for Best Series.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Jesse Tyler Ferguson-"Modern Family"

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Mayim Bialik-"The Big Bang Theory"-CBS
Julie Bowen-"Modern Family"-ABC
Anna Chlumsky-"Veep"-HBO
Allison Janney-"Mom"-CBS
Kate McKinnon-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Kate Mulgrew-"Orange is the New Black"-Netflix

The consensus seems to be that it's a two-person race between Allison Janney for "Mom" and Kate Mulgrew for "Orange is the New Black". Janney, four Emmy already for "The West Wing", she's beloved, everybody in Hollywood, knows exactly how good an actress she is, and it's a difficult, although it's not that great a show, and it's the only nomination the show got, but that's how beloved she is. Julie Bowen's won twice, always a possibility, same goes with Hale, if Anna Chlumsky wins here, that could mean "Veep" wins series. Mulgrew, an interesting nomination as well. Actually, I'm looking at Mayim Bialik for the upset though. I wouldn't be shocked by it, and if they keep giving the Emmy to Parsons it seems more and more ridiculous to not then give one to her, who's been in this industry and long prolific as any name up there as well, and like Ty Burrell, she's a supporting actress that got a SAG nomination earlier this year, and that's worth noting. Somehow, I'm just not convinced Janney's is gonna take this one, unfortunately, but I'm not as sure on Mulgrew either. McKinnon, is the obligatory "SNL" also-ran.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Mayim Bialik-"The Big Bang Theory", I'm gonna call the upset actually.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Episodes-Iain B. MacDonald-'Episode 309'-Showtime
Glee-Paris Barclay-'100'-FOX
Louie-Louis C.K.-'Elevator, Part 6'-FX Networks
Modern Family-Gail Mancuso-'Vegas'-ABC
Orange is the New Black-Jodie Foster-'The Lesbian Request Denied'-Netflix
Silicon Valley-Mike Judge-'Minimum Viable Product'-HBO

Not one 3-camera sitcom got nominated, that's disappointing. But, I guess, not unexpected. The one I'm actually kinda worried about for an upset here is "Silicon Valley", the fact that it got into directing, while "Veep" in particular didn't is a bit odd, considering how "Veep" everywhere else, seemed to be the preferred HBO show. That, can either be a weird anomaly or a sign that "Silicon Valley", might be more likely to win than not, and pull off the upset, but I tend to think that name recognition is what got the nomination for Mike Judge, and not much more, so I'm leaning more towards either "Louie", "Modern Family" or "Orange is the New Black". "Glee", has no real shot real, Iain MacDonald, pulling the upset for "Episodes", I'm acting kinda thinking about too, but not too deeply. Gail Mancuso won last year for "Modern Family", and they've won the directing award a few years in a row, it's a typical foreshadowing award anyway (Which makes "Veep"'s lack of a nomination also, particularly suspicious.) I think the money's going towards Jodie Foster winning for "Orange is the New Black", if for nothing else, but because the Academy loves it when a famous film director, comes and directs for television, and Foster, while better-known as an actress, is an incredibly talented director as well.

PREDICTION: "Orange is the New Black"-Jodie Foster
PREFERENCE: None

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Episodes-'Episode 305'-David Crane and Jeremy Klarik-Showtime
Louie-'So Did the Fat Lady'-Louis C.K.-FX Networks
Orange is the New Black-'I Wasn't Ready (Pilot)'-Liz Friedman and Jenji Kohan-Netflix
Silicon Valley-'Optimal Tip-To-Tip Efficiency-Alex Berg-HBO
Veep-'Special Relationship'-Story: Armando Ianucci; Story/Teleplay: Simon Blackwell and Tony Roche

Never count out Louis C.K.; he's won this category before, and usually is at his best with Writing nominations than anything else. No "Modern Family", but that didn't stop them last year. I have a very hard time finding the scenario where "Silicon Valley" wins this, so I think it's between "Orange..." and "Veep", with a slight possibility that "Episodes" could play spoiler here, and I think it's a tough call, and this- this looks like a predictor category too, if "Veep" or "Orange..." wins. Tough call, 'cause I think the Academy wants to honor both of them, Jenji Kohan, because she never won for "Weeds", and Armando Ianucci, because of "Veep", and "In the Loop", and a couple other British shows he's worked on, so this is a real toss-up to me.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Orange is the New Black"-Liz Friedman and Jenji Kohan

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Steve Buscemi-"Portlandia"-IFC
Louis C.K.-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Gary Cole-"Veep"-HBO
Jimmy Fallon-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Nathan Lane-"Modern Family"-ABC
Bob Newhart-"The Big Bang Theory"-CBS

As I am writing this, we're a few hours and counting 'til the Creative Arts Emmys, so I'm making these predictions late, and I'm still somewhat stumped by this category this year. Bob Newhart, finally won last year, his first Emmy, he probably should get three or four more makeups but.... Actually the only one I don't think has a shot here is Louis C.K., partly 'cause Jimmy Fallon's a favorite and he by most people has a better "SNL" hosting gig, plus, Louis C.K. has better chances to win in other categories, and Fallon is very unlikely to win in the Variety categories, so thisis gonna be where he makes up for that. That said though, Bob Newhart, does have another good episode, Nathan Lane, has been nominated multiple times in this role, like C.K., Fallon and Newhart, but hasn't won, he can win this. Gary Cole, well-liked, great character actor in Hollywood, he can win this for "Veep", and Steve Buscemi's a weird wild card for "Portlandia", which went over everybody's projections when the nominations came out, he has a lot more to do in his episode than the other nominees, especially when you consider % of screen time/episode length into the equation, and he's never won, and there is an erratic "Boardwalk Empire" contingency in the Academy, so this is one of the most interesting races going, and I really am stumped on this one. Just to fathom a guess, based on Emmy voting math it's between Fallon and Newhart, but don't be surprised by anybody winning this one; this is a close race.

PREDICTION: Bob Newhart-"The Big Bang Theory"
PREFERENCE: Steve Buscemi-"Portlandia"
WINNER: Jimmy Fallon-"Saturday Night Live"

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Uzo Aduba-"Orange is the New Black"-Netflix
Laverne Cox-"Orange is the New Black"-Netflix
Joan Cusack-"Shameless"-Showtime
Tiua Fey-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Natasha Lyonne-"Orange is the New Black"-Netflix
Melissa McCarthy-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC

Well, Joan Cusack's nomination, and she's got a decent chance at winning btw, but she was nominated last year for this role on "Shameless" but it was in the Drama Guest Actress category, and this makes her the first person ever nominated for the same performance in the same show, in both Comedy and Drama Series, so the weird anomaly of the "Shameless" genre change, continuing here, but with voters getting three chances to watch "Orange is the New Black", and two episodes 'cause Cox and Lyonne submitted the same episode, I believe, and it's seems backwards but the more a show gets nominated, in the same category, the more likely that show will win and it won't really split the vote the way people would think. Melissa McCarthy also has a shot here. Another first, Laverne Cox, the first ever transgendered actress to receive an acting Emmy nomination, that could push her over the edge, but right now, the way the tide's going, Uzo Aduba seems like the lock for this one, and I think Joan Cusack might be the biggest competition, but how many people really like "Shameless", that's the question, and she's up against "SNL", who's a monster in this category every year, and "Orange...", which is a monster in this they're first year of eligibilty.

PREDICTION: Uzo Aduba-"Orange is the New Black"
PREFERENCE: None
WINNER: Uzo Aduba-"Orange is the New Black"


DRAMA SERIES
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Breaking Bad-AMC
Downton Abbey-PBS
Game of Thrones-HBO
House of Cards-Netflix
Mad Men-AMC
True Detective-HBO

I wrote shortly after the nominations came out how everybody was gonna spend the next few weeks trying to reason their way into figuring out how "Breaking Bad" wouldn't win this category. (It might have somewhat easier if "The Newsroom" had been nominated like it FRIGGIN' SHOULD'VE BEEN!) Well, I check Goldderby just now, and not one editor or expert is picking anything other than "Breaking Bad"; I said last month you can bank it, and that holds true, it's winning it.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Breaking Bad"

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Bryan Cranston-"Breaking Bad"-AMC
Jeff Daniels-"The Newsroom"-HBO
Jon Hamm-"Mad Men"-AMC
Woody Harrelson-"True Detective"-HBO
Matthew McConaughey-"True Detective"-HBO
Kevin Spacey-"House of Cards"-Netflix

Everybody was shocked last year at Jeff Daniels win (Although he should've won) last year. Most think he's a longshot again, but that's why I'm not counting him out completely, but with Cranston's last year, McConaughey, as well as Harrelson, up for "True Detective", which means voters will see two performances from each of them, plus McConaughey's the man of the moment. Kevin Spacey's got a shot as always, especially since "House of Cards" got more acclaim this year than last, and more nominations too. Jon Hamm, I hope will win next year, and this is when we bring up the "Mad Men" acting curse, as it's at 31 acting nominations total, and has yet to win one, and doesn't look much like it'll win much more. (BTW, Jon Hamm is also the first person to be nominated in this category for seven consecutive years, so congrats to him for that.) This category's been surprising more often than not in the past, and I think Woody Harrelson might be the surprise winner here, and frankly, I didn't love "True Detective" like others, in fact I hate it more the more I thought about it, but I actually like Harrelson's work than McConaughey's and he's an Emmy winner and legendary television favorite, who also is now a big movie; that's the one that I'm looking at going, this might be where an upset comes in.

PREDICTION: Woody Harrelson-"True Detective"
PREFERENCE: Jeff Daniels-"The Newsroom"

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Lizzy Caplan-"Masters of Sex"-Showtime
Claire Danes-"Homeland"-Showtime
Michelle Dockery-"Downton Abbey"-PBS
Julianna Margulies-"The Good Wife"-CBS
Kerry Washington-"Scandal"-ABC
Robin Wright-"House of Cards"-Netflix

Claire Danes has won this award the last two years for "Homeland" but don't count her out quite yet, just because "Homeland" fell out of Best Series just after two years,  she submitted a supposedly really strong episode and the Emmys love. Frankly, just by sheer common sense, I would've voted for Kerry Washington just to not piss off Diahann Carroll two years in a row, mainly 'cause I'm afraid of her, but I just am not sure how much the Emmy voters like "Scandal". It'll get like Guest Actor thing, here and there and I love Kerry Washington but that show, comparatively is just hard to watch. Michelle Dockery has a decent episode too, Lizzy Caplan might pull off an upset, and I think "Masters of Sex" is one of those that might take a year or two, like "Breaking Bad" did before sneaking into Best Series, and it might steal something here ahead of time like this to foreshadow it. Robin Wright apparently picked  a weird episode and not the one most people think she should've picked and that's leaving her, who I probably would've presumed to be the favorite going in, just based on how well-received the shows were. Little surprised Vera Farmiga fell out of this category btw, but this- this really feels like one of the toughest categories to predict this year, but I think it's between Claire Danes and Julianna Margulies, especially since, while I've always kinda been frustrated with "The Good Wife" as a show myself, it is a good show, and it had a season that was so good that a lot of people thought it might jump back into Best Drama Series, which is very rare, for a Drama especially to fall out of the category and then go back in, but it might get honored here- Eh, they're both Emmy favorites I think I'm leaning towards Claire Danes 'cause it's a tougher, more complicated role, and because she's won two in a row, and I'm just not confident picking an upset here.

PREDICTION: Claire Danes-"Homeland"
PREFERENCE: Elisabeth Moss-"Mad Men" Michelle Dockery-"Downton Abbey" (How did Elisabeth Moss not get in btw?! Man, "Mad Men"'s never winning an acting Emmy, are they?)

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jim Carter-"Downton Abbey"-PBS
Josh Charles-"The Good Wife"-CBS
Peter Dinklage-"Game of Thrones"-HBO
Mandy Patinkin-"Homeland"-Showtime
Aaron Paul-"Breaking Bad"-AMC
Jon Voight-"Ray Donovan"-Showtime

Well, I know which one I'm rooting for but at first glance, it seems like a 3-way race between past winners Aaron Paul, in his last season of eligibility, and Peter Dinklage, who lost to Aaron Paul two years ago, and won in the year "Breaking Bad" wasn't eligible. He did beat out Josh Charles that year, his only year he was nominated previously, but his character also died suddenly this season, and it was a good "The Good Wife" season. Jon Voight's kind of an interesting addition to this too, I saw the first episode of "Ray Donovan", and I liked it, although oddly I preferred Shreiber's lead work; I'm a little surprised he got in, this might be a name-recognition nomination, but you never know. Kevin Spacey's having a hard time taking an Emmy for a better show, kinda unlikely to think Voight will sneak in. Patinkin and Carter, holdovers from last year, Patinkin, I don't know, but, I'm worried about dismissing Jim Carter completely. He's been nominated three years straight for this character, and he submitted the two hour season premiere (2 hours in the US, two episode in the UK) and you know, if you're looking for the one that doesn't belong, this is the one I'm leaning towards, and I love his character too; he's my favorite character on the show- In a way I'd say the show, almost revolves around him half-the-time, he's practically almost a co-lead, I'd say, so he's someone I think this might be a longshot upset here.

PREDICTION: Aaron Paul-"Breaking Bad"
PREFERENCE: Josh Charles-"The Good Wife"

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Christine Baranski-"The Good Wife"-CBS
Joanne Froggatt-"Downton Abbey"-PBS
Anna Gunn-"Breaking Bad"-AMC
Lena Headey-"Game of Thrones"-HBO
Christina Hendricks-"Mad Men"-AMC
Maggie Smith-"Downton Abbey"-PBS

If there's an upset, it will probably be either Joanne Froggatt or Maggie Smith. Froggatt because she submitted a powerful episode that might win any other year, and Maggie Smith because she's Maggie Smith, and is automatically half a favorite no matter what she's in (And as much as we joke about that, it is an automatic nomination because she is that damn good.) Eh, there won't be an upset. I've said that before and eaten my words, but there won't be an upset, Anna Gunn's gonna win again.

PREDICTION: Anna Gunn-"Breaking Bad"
PREFERENCE: Christina Hendricks-"Mad Men"

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Boardwalk Empire-Tim Van Patten-'Farewell Daddy Blues'-HBO
Breaking Bad-Vince Gilligan-'Felina'-AMC
Downton Abbey-David Evans-'Episode 1'-PBS
Game of Thrones-Neil Marshall-'The Watchers on the Wall'-HBO
House of Cards-Carl Franklin-'Chapter 14'-Netflix
True Detective-Cary Joji Fukunaga-'Who Goes There'-HBO

The glaring omission of Rian Johnson's nomination for the "Ozymandias" "Breaking Bad" episode is somewhat noteworthy. Vince Gilligan, who's never won in this category is up for Writing "Felina" (He's also for directing that episode), is the "Breaking Bad" nomination, but that said, he's probably gonna win for Best Series, and rarely does any single person sweep Writing, Directing and Producing, (Especially not in a last season of a show and that's an exception btw, only "The Sopranos" and "Upstairs, Downstairs" have won Best Drama Series in their last season, and it's weird that it's so assured that they'll win Drama Series.) so it's okay to look for an outsider here. Tim Van Patten and "Boardwalk Empire" is notable, but "Boardwalk..." has a way of sneaking into weird categories, despite not getting Best Series nominations. That said, smart money, is probably on "True Detective," but "Game of Thrones" won this last year, granted it was David Fincher, but Carl Franklin's a pretty well-known name too, and "Downton Abbey", don't look surprised if they win for that epic 2-hour premiere. I wasn't as impressed with it myself, but I also think the show, was in a bit of trouble at the end of the last season, so it already was losing me. Eh, honestly, I'm kinda leaning more towards this being the place where "Game of Thrones" get the accreditation. It's got the most nominations, we know that, for a fantasy show, a genre that traditionally doesn't do well at the Emmys (Although let's be fair here, most of them have absolutely sucked beyond belief, let's not pretend it was a complete bias, there hasn't been one as good as "Game of Thrones" before) but it's shown it can win, it's popular enough to get many nominations, if it's wasn't "Breaking Bad"'s last season, we might be having a different discussion in a few categories, etc. etc. Smart money's on "True Detective", but honestly, I'm kinda thinking upset here.

PREDICTION: "Game of Thrones"-Neil Marshall
PREFERENCE: "House of Cards"-Carl Franklin

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Breaking Bad-"Ozymandias"-Moira Walley-Beckett-AMC
Breaking Bad-"Felina"-Vince Gilligan-AMC
Game of Thrones-"The Children"-David Benioff and D.B. Weiss-HBO
House of Cards-"Chapter 14"-Beau Willimon-Netflix
True Detective-"The Secret Fate of All of Life"-Nic Pizzolatto-HBO

Hey, why are all the other categories up to six, but writing and directing are still five? Weird. Eh, I'm just checking Goldderby.com on this one, and all the predictors have "Breaking Bad", except one who's picking "True Detective", and most of the "Breaking Bad" love, what a surprise, "Ozymandias", I have never remembered an episode title, so much of a show that frankly I, I love, but I don't have stats like that memorized about it, not since "What Kind of Day Has It Been", which is a famous title of numerous season 1 finales of Aaron Sorkin shows, so "Ozymandias" should win.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE-"Breaking Bad"-Moira Walley-Beckett

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Dylan Baker-"The Good Wife"-CBS
Beau Bridges-"Masters of Sex"-Showtime
Reg E. Cathay-"House of Cards"-Netflix
Paul Giamatti-"Downton Abbey"-PBS
Robert Morse-"Mad Men"-AMC
Joe Morton-"Scandal"-ABC

Well, it's about time Robert Morse got nominated for a really strong performance in a  "Mad Men" episode, and the whole episode, revolves around him, but strangely he's not in it much, but he might have a shot at breaking the "Mad Men" curse this year. That said, this looks like it's between Beau Bridges and Joe Morton, although don't be too surprised by a Reg E. Cathay, or a Paul Giamatti upset. Bridges, well-liked, a favorite of the Academy, "Masters of Sex" is on their radar, and he's won this category before for other shows. That said, "Scandal", won last year, Paul Bucatinsky's performance, and apparently, there's a thought going around that "Scandal" might become the new "Law & Order" in this category, and that's certainly a possibility, and apparently Morton's episode is particularly impressive, and he's moved up on most experts ballots in recent weeks. Tough call a bit; I think it's a bit up in the air.

PREDICTION: Joe Morton-"Scandal"
PREFERENCE: Robert Morse-"Mad Men"
WINNER: Joe Morton-"Scandal"

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Kate Burton-"Scandal"-ABC
Jane Fonda-"The Newsroom"-HBO
Allison Janney-"Master of Sex"-Showtime
Kate Mara-"House of Cards"-Netflix
Margo Martindale-"The Americans"-FX Networks
Diana Rigg-"Game of Thrones"-HBO

Kate Mara's an interesting anomaly here, 'cause she switched from putting her name in Supporting Actress last year, where she wasn't nominated, and now was only a Guest Actress this year, and then does get nominated, and don't completely discount "House of Cards" across the board, btw; it's not impossible that they would have a chance at sweeping much of these awards, but that said, this is pretty much Allison Janney's to lose again; she's the favorite, she's beloved, many people love her on this show, she was nominated for Comedy Series for "Mom" of all things they love her so much, and she can win that.... There's too much in her favor. If there's an upset, Kate Burton might be a surprise, and I don't think we can count out Jane Fonda, despite limited screen time in her episode selection, but this is an uphill battle to pull it out for anybody other than Janney.

PREDICTION: Allison Janney-"Masters of Sex"
PREFERENCE: Jane Fonda-"The Newsroom"
WINNER: Allison Janney-"Masters of Sex"


MINISERIES/TV MOVIES
OUTSTANDING MINISERIES
American Horror Story: Cover-FX Networks
Bonnie & Clyde-Lifetime
Fargo-FX Networks
Luther-BBC America
Treme-HBO
The White Queen-Starz

Well, "Fargo" started as a miniseries, but it's now been renewed for next year. (Frustrated sigh) 1,2,3,- there's at least four recurring series in this category folks?! Okay, "Treme"'s got it's last season, and due to an actual technicality moved into this category 'cause it's final season didn't have enough episodes to qualify for series, although it's good to finally see it get recognized, but the Academy's got to take a cue from the Golden Globes of all fucking people, and stop letting shows pick a category at random. Anyway, the last time this category was 100% guarantee predictable winner was "Mildred Pierce", and they lost to "Downton Abbey" in it's first season, when it was submitted as a Miniseries, so take that with a grain of salt, but it looks like "Fargo", is gonna walk with this Emmy, the only real one, that could win, that wouldn't completely be an upset, is "American Horror Story: Coven", because A. it hasn't won before, but B., while it usually gets a lot of Emmy nominations other than an acting and series award occasionally, it usually just racks up technical awards, this time it snuck into Writing and Directing, and that's unusual with any series that's been on multiple years and didn't get into those categories before, so that's where to look for the upset, but unless everyone's misreading this, "Fargo"'s just way too strong.

PREDICTION: "Fargo"
PREFERENCE: "Treme"

OUTSTANDING TELEVISION MOVIE
Killing Kennedy-National Geographic Channel
Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight-HBO
The Normal Heart-HBO
Sherlock: His Last Vow (Masterpiece)-PBS
The Trip to Bountiful-Lifetime

Something I didn't catch until later, Stephen Frears has pulled off a weird anomaly, having directing and Oscar-nominated Best Picture, "Philomena", while in the same year, having directed an Emmy nominated TV movie, with "Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight". Just an observation; he's a great director but he has no chance of winning either of these. Again, this is fairly predictable with "The Normal Heart" being the favorite, but "Sherlock..." did unbelievably well at the Creative Arts Emmys, and really over-performed there, but still, that's predicting a longshot against what's probably gonna win most everything right now.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "The Normal Heart"

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE
Benedict Cumberbatch-"Sherlock: His Last Vow (Masterpiece)-PBS
Chiwetel Ejiofor-"Dancing on the Edge-Starz
Idris Elba-"Luther"-BBC America
Martin Freeman-"Fargo"-FX Networks
Mark Ruffalo-"The Normal Heart"-HBO
Billy Bob Thornton-"Fargo"-FX Networks

Wow, Goldderby.com is really split here. The experts are projecting Billy Bob Thornton, the Editors however, have him, mostly in third, and in fact have Mark Ruffalo as the favorite, and actually they pushed up Martin Freeman as a possible winner, and Freeman's nomination is particularly interesting here, 'cause he's up in both Lead and Supporting Actor, here for "Fargo" along with his co-star Thornton, and also against his co-star for "Sherlock..." Benedict Cumberbatch, while he's up for Supporting for "Sherlock..." and actually, he's got a shot to win both of these btw; and that's never happened that somebody wins two Miniseries/Movie acting awards in the same year, for two different Miniseries or TV movies. A lot of big names here; Cumberbatch might pull off an upset too if the Creative Arts show that "Sherlock..." is stronger than the cult favorite in America than most think it is. Ejiofor, it he and McConaughey win, it's almost a makeup for him not getting the Oscar. I like "Luther" a lot actually, and Elba is beloved from "The Wire" and he didn't any Award respect for that, so he has an outside shot, especially with this split at the top, I think this is a very wide-open category this year.

PREDICTION: Martin Freeman-"Fargo"
PREFERENCE: None

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE
Helena Bonham Carter-"Burton and Taylor"-BBC America
Minnie Driver-"Return to Zero"-Lifetime
Jessica Lange-"American Horror Story: Coven"-FX Networks
Sarah Paulson-"American Horror Story: Coven"-FX Networks
Cicely Tyson-"The Trip to Bountiful"-Lifetime
Kristen Wiig-"The Spoils of Babylon"-IFC

The Kristen Wiig nomination for the miniseries comedic parody "The Spoils of Babylon" came out of nowhere to most people (Although, I'll toot my horn on this one, I had a suspicion once I saw her name on the long ballot of weak nominees that she might sneak in.) and that's throwing a wrench into this, 'cause almost everyone had Cicely Tyson winning this easily for "The Trip to Bountiful", which she already won a Tony for last year, and the character won an Oscar, back in the mid-'80s, so this is a role with a traditional of winning, and Tyson hasn't won before despite plenty of nomination in numerous categories, so on the surface this looks right. But, Jessica Lange's here, for a show (Not a role per se) that she's won for before. Sarah Paulson's here, for the same show, and she was nominated last year in Supporting and moved up last year. (And a lot of people were shocked she lost last year to Ellen Burstyn for "Political Animals" in one of last year many big upsets) Other names here too, Helena Bonham Carter's playing Elizabeth Taylor, and were not even really thinking much about her performance strangely enough. This category had an upset last year with Laura Linney too, so don't presume that because "AHS..." and "...Bountiful" got the Movie and Miniseries nominations that they're the automatic favorites.

PREDICTION: Cecily Tyson-"The Trip to Bountiful"
PREFERENCE: Sarah Paulson-"American Horror Story: Coven"

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE
Matt Bomer-"The Normal Heart"-HBO
Martin Freeman-"Sherlock: His Last Vow (Masterpiece)-PBS
Colin Hanks-"Fargo"-FX Networks
Joe Mantello-"The Normal Heart"-HBO
Alfred Molina-"The Normal Heart"-HBO
Jim Parsons-"The Normal Heart"-HBO

Well, here's the look of the TV Movie/Miniseries outlook in this one category, four of "The Normal Heart" dominating, a "Fargo" nod, and a coming-on-strong and over-performing "Sherlock..." nomination. Freeman, I think can pull off an upset here, and Colin Hanks would've shock me either, very quietly he's become a really engaging actor in recent years, especially on television. His work on "Mad Men" and "Dexter" in recent years, he's been on some failed comedies as well in some memorable funny parts, very underrated actor; he might be better than his famous father is when all's said and done. That said, this is almost certainly going to somebody from "The Normal Heart", probably Matt Bomer, is gonna win. Frankly, I wasn't as impressed with him as I was with Molina and Parsons for instance, but it's probably Bomer's Emmy to lose.

PREDICTION: Matt Bomer-"The Normal Heart"
PREFERENCE: Jim Parsons-"The Normal Heart"

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE
Angela Bassett-"American Horror Story: Coven"-FX Networks
Kathy Bates-"American Horror Story: Coven"-FX Networks
Ellen Burstyn-"Flowers in the Attic"-Lifetime
Frances Conroy-"American Horror Story: Coven"-FX Networks
Julia Roberts-"The Normal Heart"-HBO
Alison Tolman-"Fargo"-FX Networks

Not that I needed another reason to worry about Ellen Burstyn getting a nomination in this category, after pulling off aforementioned "Political Animals" upset for this category last year, lets- we berated that a few times now, but she is a spectacular Oscar-winning actress who can play anything, so the nomination and the win, shouldn't have been that surprising, but "Flowers in the Attic", is a notoriously unfilmable horror novel,- yes, horror,- this is not your typical Lifetime movie, and it's an infamous literary character she's playing, and she needs to play it just as over-the-top as all the "AHS..." actors, maybe more, and if this was a just slightly weaker field, I think she might sneak in for a second straight Emmy in the category. The rest of the field however.... Two more Oscar winners in Bates, who's an Emmy favorite, and gets nomination for the strangest things, (I think I was the only one who actually watched and liked "Harry's Law") and Julia Roberts, she's coming off a good Oscar nomination too, and this is a strong performance from her in "The Normal Heart", although I'm a little reluctant on it, 'cause I thought the other performances were more interesting, but that said, don't presume it's always the most well-known, in fact be very cautious that it isn't. The Miniseries/Movie actings are the kind of category that makes a star sometimes, (Angelina Jolie for "George Wallace" and "Gia" for instance) and Alison Tolman getting in for "Fargo", and there's a lot of people predicting her in a crowded field to break through.

PREDICTION: Alison Tolman-"Fargo"
PREFERENCE: Frances Conroy-"American Horror Story: Coven"

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A MINISERIES, MOVIE  OR A DRAMATIC SPECIAL
American Horror Story: Coven-"Bitchcraft"-Ryan Murphy and Brad Falchuk-FX Networks
Fargo-"The Crocodile's Dilemma"-Noah Hawley-FX Network
Luther-Neil Cross-BBC America
The Normal Heart-Larry Kramer-HBO
Sherlock: His Last Vow (Masterpiece)-Steven Moffat-PBS
Treme-"...To Miss New Orleans"-David Simon and Eric Overmeyer-HBO

Being a huge "Coupling" fan, I'd like to see Steven Moffat get this, and he might for "Sherlock...", but I think it's between "Fargo" and "The Normal Heart". "AHS..." lucky to be nominated, "Luther", I don't know what to think of that nomination but I can't fathom it sneaking in for a win here. The only real reason I'm reluctant to give it to "The Normal Heart" is because, while I think there's a very big desire to honor a great and important playwright like Larry Kramer, he was basically adapting his own work, from the stage to the television screen, and there are some changes but not a whole lot per se, and he had a lot of the same actors from the most recent stage production also, so, that could be a double-edged sword that throws it to "Fargo" or "Sherlock...", but eh, I just think "The Normal Heart" has too much going for it.

PREDICTION:"The Normal Heart"-Larry Kramer
PREFERENCE: "Treme"-David Simon and Eric Overmeyer

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A MINISERIES, MOVIE OR A DRAMATIC SPECIAL
American Horror Story: Coven-Alfonso Gozem-Rejon-"Bitchcraft"-FX Networks
Fargo-Adam Bernstein-"The Crocodile's Dilemma"-FX Networks
Fargo-Colin Bucksey-"Buridan's Ass"-FX Networks
Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight-Stephen Frears-HBO
The Normal Heart-Ryan Murphy-HBO
Sherlock: His Last Vow (Masterpiece)-Nick Hurran-PBS

Eh (Shrugs), I don't know. Stephen Frears is the biggest name but that "Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight" did not go over well, so I think his nod is half-name recognition. I'm leaning towards either Murphy for "The Normal Heart", Nick Curran for "Sherlock..." and the two "Fargo" nominations, and it looks like most experts are predicting Bernstein among the "Fargo"'s. I think Ryan Murphy's name is a bit toxic himself at the moment, although unusually, he did do a good job, not a great one though, but I think the writing was the real key so I'm leaning towards "Fargo", although that's pretty much all I got on this one.

PREDICTION: "Fargo"-Adam Bernstein
PREFERENCE: None


VARIETY
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SERIES
The Colbert Report-Comedy Central
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart-Comedy Central
Jimmy Kimmel Live-ABC
Real Time with Bill Maher-HBO
Saturday Night Live-NBC
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon-NBC

Apparently now that it's not an election year, and after last year "The Colbert Report" finally proved that it's possible, now it seems that nobody thinks "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart"'s got a chance here. That's actually making it want to predict it more. BTW, first off, I wrote down every Creative Arts Emmy predictions before those awards on Saturday, but at those awards, Bill Maher's streak finally ended earlier at the Creative Arts Emmys when he finally won as a Producer on "Vice" tying, (Yeah they wouldn't even give it to him straight up) the Emmy for Informational Series or Special with "Anthony Bourdain's No Reservations", so that streak finally ended, and I'm glad he finally won, 'cause frankly, he's the one I usually blindly cheer for in this group not only 'cause I'm a huge fan of Maher's and also because it was ridiculous, he should've won by now. Anyway, people are thinking it's either Colbert or Fallon, getting "The Tonight Show..." back into the category since Conan O'Brien's season. He is good, and he's popular now, and him and Colbert, this won't be the first or last time they'll literally be head-to-head in the near future, so it'll be interesting to see what happens here.

PREDICTION: "The Colbert Report"
PREFERENCE: "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" (Sorry Stephen, but just because it's not an election year, doesn't mean it's still not at the top of it's game.)

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL
AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Mel Brooks-TNT
The Beatles: The Night That Changed America-CBS
Best of "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon" Primetime Special-NBC
Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays-HBO
The Kennedy Center Honors-CBS
Sarah Silverman: We Are Miracles-HBO

"The Kennedy Center Honors" whether they deserve to or not, and they are always good, but they do seem to keep winning this award. But, they're up against Mel Brooks, The Beatles, Jimmy Fallon, Billy Crystal and Sarah Silverman. I think they're gonna fall this year, but I'm not sure who's gonna take their place, I'm leaning towards "The Beatles..." or "Billy Crystal...", and I'm particularly leaning towards Crystal, personally, but, it's tough to tell completely, I think The Beatles alone, could take it, but, that Crystal special of his One-Man Broadway Show, was really, really good....

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays"
WINNER: AFI LIfe Achievement Award: A Tribute to Mel Brooks

OUTSTANDING SPECIAL CLASS PROGRAM
The 71st Annual Golden Globe Awards-NBC
The Oscars-ABC
Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games Opening Ceremony-NBC
The Sound of Music Live!-NBC
67th Annual Tony Awards-CBS

"The Sound of Music Live!" is really screwing this category up, 'cause the Sochi Olympics, are a longshot at best; I'm shocked they got in; they were not done well on our side, or theirs, sorry Russia, you're Closing Ceremonies, we're much better actually. But it should be, between the Golden Globes and the Tonys, (The Oscars didn't get a Writing nomination, which is why I'm unusually disregarding them here.) but "The Sound of Music Live!", which probably should've been considered as a TV Movie instead,- it's the one that doesn't fit, Hmm.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "67th Annual Tony Awards"
WINNER: "67th Annual Tony Awards"

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
The Colbert Report-James Hoskinson-'Episode 9135'-Comedy Central
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart-Chuck O'Neil-'Episode 18153'-Comedy Central
Portlandia-Jonathan Krisel-'Getting Away'-IFC
Saturday Night Live-Don Roy King-'Host: Jimmy Fallon'-NBC
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon-Dave Diomedi-'Episode 1'-NBC

If, big if, there's a possible upset of Don Roy King, it might be "Portlandia" riding their unusual wave, but he's won four in a row, it's live, it's sketch, multiple-camera.

PREDICTION: "Saturday Night Live"-Don Roy King
PREFERENCE: None
WINNER: "Saturday Night Live"-Don Roy King

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
The Colbert Report-Head Writer: Opus Moreschi; Writers: Stephen Colbert, et. al.-Comedy Central
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart-Head Writers: Elliott Kalan and Tim Carvell, Writers: Jon Stewart, et. al-Comedy Central
Inside Amy Schumer-Head Writer: Jessi Klein; Writers: Amy Schumer, et. al.- Comedy Central
Key & Peele-Writers: Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, et. al.-Comedy Central
Portlandia-Fred Armisen, Carrie Brownstein, Jonathan Krisel, Graham Wagner and Karey Dornetto-IFC
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon-Head Writer: AD Miles; Writers: Jimmy Fallon, et. al.-HBO

Boy I wish this category was on the main Emmys show this year. (Because of Guild regulation they switch these the Writing and Directing Variety Series with the Variety Special awards for some reason) "Portlandia" did sneak into this, the last couple years, but "Inside Amy Schumer" and "Key & Peele" are huge shocks for having snuck into the category, and they're both just as interesting for getting. "Portlandia", has the legitimate shot at the upset, but I think it's pretty safely "The Colbert Report"'s this year.

PREDICTION: "The Colbert Report"
PREFERENCE: "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart"
WINNER: "The Colbert Report"

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
67th Annual Tony Awards-Glenn Weiss-CBS
The Beatles: The Night that Changed America-Gregg Gefland-CBS
The Kennedy Center Honors-Louis J. Horvitz-CBS
The Oscars-Hamish Hamilton-ABC
Six by Sondheim-James Lapine-HBO
The Sound of Music Live!-Dir.: Beth McCarthy-Miller; Theatrical Dir.: Rob Ashford-NBC

In case you're wondering why they're announcing and the Writing for a Variety Special category at the main awards, instead of Directing/Writing Variety Series, there's a stipulation involving the DGA and WGA agreements where they switch it every year with Variety Series and Variety Specials, and it's definitely a bit annoying btw, but that's what we got, so.... Besides that, this is always a fun category if Louis J. Horvitz wins 'cause he's usually directing the Emmys when he wins so he always gets his prize in the control room. "The AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Mel Brooks" pulled off the upset over "The Kennedy Center Honors" for Variety Special, and that's not nominated here, so it's a bit of a crapshoot. Beth McCartney-Miller I always feel for Beth McCarthy-Miller 'cause she's been a great comedy director for years in "SNL" and "30 Rock" most notably, but somehow never wins, but I think she's got a shot here with that "The Sound of Music Live!" special, which was a live taping also, so that's a strong possibility, but I'm not exactly predicting it.

PREDICTION: "67th Annual Tony Awards"-Glenn Weiss
PREFERENCE: "The Sound of Music Live!-Dir.: Beth McCarthy Miller; Rob Ashford

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
67th Annual Tony Awards-Dave Boone; Special Material: Paul Greenberg-CBS
The 71st Annual Golden Globes Awards-Barry Adelman; Special Material: Tina Fey, et. al-NBC
The Beatles: The Night That Changed America-Ken Ehrlich and David Wild-CBS
Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays-Billy Crystal-HBO
Sarah Silverman: We Are Miracles-Sarah Silverman-HBO

BTW, among the et. al.'s on the Golden Globe nominations include Amy Poehler, naturally (And how she hasn't won shit yet.... (Frustrated Sigh) as well as this year's Emmy host, Seth Meyers, also Dave Boone, who's up for Writing the "...Tony Awards". While, inviting and nominating Sarah Silverman to the main party is probably a fun yet, albeit misguided idea, 'cause God knows what she'll do (Rule also applies to Kathy Griffin btw), I think the likely winner is either the "... Tony Awards" or-eh Billy Crystal, for his great one-man show "700 Sundays"- if you haven't seen that btw, definitely worth watching, that's a really great piece he's been working on for years and HBO recorded the Broadway show, really, really funny and incredible, although now, part of me doesn't want him to win since he's going to be-eh, doing the Robin Williams tribute, which-eh, I'll be frank, especially considering it's him, I don't know how the hell's he gonna get through that. Just- I feel sorry for him, and I'm sure winning is the last thing on his mind this week, but he can win definitely this; it was that good. I think it's between him, the Tonys and maybe the Globes. "The Beatles..." thing, maybe, it won Music Direction at the Creative Arts, but it's The Beatles for Christs's sake so I don't know how much Music Direction was really needed, but I can't get a read on that, but Ken Ehrlich is pretty well-known and respected; he might be an upset possibility.

PREDICTION: "67 Annual Tony Awards"
PREFERENCE: "Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays"


REALITY
OUTSTANDING REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race-CBS
Dancing with the Stars-ABC
Project Runway-Lifetime
So You Think You Can Dance-FOX
Top Chef-Bravo
The Voice-NBC

Same 6 as the last two years in the Reality-Competition, and frankly it's the same-, well 5, that should be nominated. People like to dismiss this category, but they usually get the nominations right, and frankly, "Dancing with the Stars" fills out the field, although, other than Tom Bergeron I don't know why that keeps getting in; somebody must know people on the voting board there or something, 'cause it's pretty unwatchable although in their defense it's a little hard to figure out exactly who the sixth nominee should be. (I probably would give it to "Top Chef Masters" myself, especially after this past season, which was about as good as the regular "Top Chef" btw, and I'm typically not as impressed with the Masters version normally.) Anyway, speaking of "Top Chef", they won this category once before, and they had a controversial season with a few good episodes, especially the ending; I wouldn't be dismissing them so quickly, but "The Voice" won last year, making it only the third show to win this award with "The Amazing Race" having won it every other time, and that shocked me, 'cause I- I loved "The Voice" in the beginning, but since they made it more like "American Idol" and left it up solely to an audience vote way too early, I think it's gone way down, and frankly I haven't watched in a couple seasons, it frustrated me too much how it went from the Anti-"...Idol", to the New "...Idol", so maybe it had another good season, it wouldn't surprise me, 'cause the rest of it, blows "...Idol" out of the water, and there's definitely "The Amazing Race" fatigue in this category, but I don't know; I have a hard time imagining "The Voice" winning again; I think that bubble has burst as well.

PREDICTION: "The Amazing Race"
PREFERENCE: "Project Runway"

OUTSTANDING STRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAMS
Antiques Roadshow-PBS
Diners, Drive-ins and Dives-Food Network
Mythbusters-Discovery Channel
Shark Tank-ABC
Undercover Boss-CBS
Who Do You Think You Are?-TLC

They broke the Reality Category into two this year, between Structured Reality Programs and Unstructured Reality Programs, although you wouldn't know that if you didn't scroll down in a few seconds, 'cause each of these nominees have been nominated before for Reality Series, and this category typically went to a structured series anyway. "Undercover Boss" won for the second year in a row last year, even though most thought "Shark Tank" was gonna win, and I think they're due, so it looks like it's between them, although I'd love to see "Antiques Roadshow" finally win; they've been nominated, every year, since '03, and they haven't won yet. You'd think by a fluke they'd win it at least once, so I hope they do at some point. Lisa Kudrow and Dan Bucatinsky are producer on "Who Do You Think You Are?", and they can each win their second Emmys for that, and they've both won for acting over the years. And "Mythbusters" could play spoiler 'cause they entered the "Breaking Bad" episode, and they've won before, so not out of the realm of possibility. So, three-way race "Shark Tank", "Mythbusters" and "Undercover Boss".

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Shark Tank"
WINNER: "Shark Tank"

OUTSTANDING UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM
Alaska: The Final Frontier-Discovery Channel
Deadliest Catch-Discovery Channel
Flipping Out-Bravo
Million Dollar Listing New York-Bravo
Wahlburgers-A&E
Wild Things with Dominic Monaghan-BBC America

"Deadliest Catch" is the only one the nominees that's ever been nominated, and they've won before, but I don't think that's a lock for this new Unstructured Reality Program category. My gut instinct say "Wahlburgers" is the favorite, it's the newest, it's got the biggest names involved in Hollywood, big stars doing any kind of Reality, even an appearance is huge. They're the two, I think most would lean towards, especially since the "Flipping Out" and"Million Dollar Listing..." votes might get split between the two shows about real estate essentially. And "Alaska..." could steal a vote or two from "Deadliest Catch" too; it's mostly an unprove category, so you're guess is as good as mine.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Flipping Out"
WINNER: "Deadliest Catch"

OUTSTANDING HOST FOR A REALITY OR REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM
Tom Bergeron-"Dancing with the Stars"-ABC
Anthony Bourdain-"The Taste"-ABC
Cat Deeley-"So You Think You Can Dance"-FOX
Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn-"Project Runway"-Lifetime
Jane Lynch-"Hollywood Game Night"-NBC
Betty White-"Betty White's Off Their Rockers"-Lifetime

I love Anthony Bourdain, but I'm confused that he keeps sneaking into this category for "The Taste" which both sucks, and he's barely what I'd consider a "host" for that show. I think he's getting in 'cause of reputation. I'd like to see Cat Deeley take this, but I think it's between Heidi and Tim and Jane Lynch this year, as she's the wild card for "Hollywood Game Night", which is really more game show to me than reality but she is really good on it, and that might knock out other perennial favorites like Tom Bergeron. It's tough to say, since they've stopped arbitrarily giving it to Jeff Probst every year what the Academy will do, they've been erratic with the category since.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn-"Project Runway"
WINNER: Jane Lynch-"Hollywood Game Night"


OTHER NOTABLES
OUTSTANDING CHARACTER VOICE-OVER PERFORMANCE
Chris Diamantapolous-"Disney Mickey Mouse": 'The Adorable Couple-Disney Channel
Stephen Full-"Dog with a Blog": 'My Parents Posted What?!'-Disney Channel
Seth Green-"Robot Chicken DC Comics Special II: Villains in Paradise"-Cartoon Network
Maurice LaMarche-"Futurama": 'Calculon 2.0'-Comedy Central
Seth MacFarlane-"Family Guy": 'In Harmony's Way"-FOX
Harry Shearer-"The Simpsons": 'Four Regrettings and a Funeral'-FOX

They decided to split the Voice-Over Performance Category into two this year to Character Voice Over and Narrator, this after Lily Tomlin's strange win last year for "An Apology to Elephants" (Although in her defense, for some reason she had never won before, and that's just dumb. Weird that she won for that, but stilll at least it's something.) So, a couple newer entries in the category this year. Most of the momentum is for Harry Shearer 'cause he's only one on "The Simpsons" who remarkably hasn't won this award yet, which is really ridiculous considering how many characters he does on "The Simpsons" and elsewhere, so he's the sentimental favorite, and you'll hear boos if anybody else takes it. If there is anyone else, probably Maurice LaMarche 'cause he's well-respected, has won before, and this is "Futurama"'s last season, again, so they might throw another his way for that.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Harry Shearer-"The Simpsons"
WINNER: Harry Shearer-"The Simpsons"

OUTSTANDING ANIMATED PROGRAM
Archer-"Archer Vice: The Rules of Extraction"-FX Networks
Bob's Burgers-"Mazel Tina"-FOX
Futurama-"Meanwhile"-Comedy Central
South Park-"Black Friday"-Comedy Central
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: The Manhattan Project-"Nickelodeon"

Strangely, this is the first time "Archer"'s been nominated that should've been rectified years ago. "Futurama" has the sentimental vote, but "South Park" won last year, and they've got a good submission, and I have no idea, what to think of the "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" in this category this year. Could be spoiler, but who knows it could be an anomaly too, but those things are big again for some reason, on TV and in the movies. It's always a tough call with this category.

PREDICTION: "South Park"
PREFERENCE: "Bob's Burgers"
WINNER: "Bob's Burgers"

OUTSTANDING SHORT-FORM ANIMATED PROGRAMMING
Adventure Time-'Be More'-Cartoon Network
Disney Mickey Mouse-'O Sole Minnie'-Disney Channel
Disney Phineas and Ferb-'Thanks but No Thanks'-Disney Channel
Regular Show-'The Last Laserdisc Player'-Cartoon Network
Robot Chicken-'Born Again Virgin Christmas Special-Cartoon Network

The only one of these I've seen is "Robot Chicken", so I'm not sure how much that helps, but I think it's either gonna be that, or "Disney Mickey Mouse", if they really liked that cartoon (Which, actually I think I did see now that I'm thinking about it; I might have caught that online.), plus they're the ones that got Character Voice-Over Nominations

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Robot Chicken"
WINNER: "Disney Mickey Mouse"

OUTSTANDING ORIGINAL MUSIC AND LYRICS
"Bigger!"-67th Annual Tony Awards-Music: Tom Kitt; Lyric: Lin-Manuel Miranda
"No Trouble"-A Christmas Carol-The Concert-Music: Bob Christianson; Lyric: Alisa Hauser-PBS
"Les Mis"-Key & Peele: 'Substitute Teacher #3'-Music: Joshua Funk; Lyric Rebecca Drysdale-Comedy Central
"Home for the Holiday (Twin Bed)"-Saturday Night Live: 'Host: Jimmy Fallon'-Music: eli Brueggemann; Lyrics: Chris Kelly, Sarah Schneider, Aidy Bryant and Kate McKinnon-NBC
"Merroway Cove"-Sofia the First: 'The Floating Palace'-Music: John William Kavanaugh; Lyric: Craig Berger-Disney Channel
"Day is Gone"-Sons of Anarchy- 'A Mother's Work'-Music & Lyric: Bob Thiele, Noah Gunderson and Kurt Sutter-FX Networks

I did listen to all of these btw, and while I doubt "Sofia the First"'s song "Merroway Cove" is gonna win, it wasn't bad actually. I'm sure some are hoping on a subversive level for Kurt Sutter to win for "Sons of Anarachy"s "Day is Gone" song, since he's notoriously critical of the show. The only nominee, I'm a little perplexed by was "Key & Peele", who I normally like, but they're "Les Mis" song, wasn't that funny, and frankly, since it was a very close-to-the-original song parody, I'm not sure it's original enough but, I think it's between "Bigger!" and "Home for the Holidays (Twin Bed)", Tonys vs. SNL again basically, and both were really great songs; I think it's close.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE-"Bigger!"-"67th Annual Tony Awards"
WINNER: "Bigger!"-"67th Annual Tony Awards"

OUTSTANDING NARRATOR
Daniel Craig-"One Life"-Nat Geo Wild
Whoopi Goldberg-"Whoopi Goldberg Presents Moms Mabley-HBO
Jeremy Irons-"Game of Lions"-Nat Geo Wild
Jane Lynch-"Penguins: Waddle All the Way"-Discovery Channel
Henry Strozier-"Too Cute!": 'Holiday Special'-Animal Planet

Of the nominees, for this, the first ever Emmy for Voice Over Narrator, I think Whoopi Goldberg probably is the favorite considering her "Whoopi Goldberg Presents Moms Mabley" is probably the most-viewed of the nominees, and it was quite good, but don't count out Henry Strozier 'cause you haven't heard of him; he's a big time Voice Over guy for TV, commercials, films, and I took one look at "Too Cute!", and I'm not an animal lover but I wanted to keep watching his program more than the rest.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE-Henry Strozier-"Too Cute!"
WINNER: Jeremy Irons-"Game of Lions"

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