It's Pandemic Oscars Part II: The Sequel!
(Sigh)
I never know what to write for this opening anymore every year. Every time I try to think of what to say or how to open my Oscar predictions, I usually end up feeling like I have to justify the Oscars continuous existence, 'cause I know, sure as hell, someone will comment on my FB post about how someone doesn't care about them, or that they don't matter, or "they don't the right film", or the ones they've seen and heard of,... or whatever their dumb, petty reasons are.
I don't want to have to deal with those idiot buzzkills anymore, but it's always in the back of my mind. Not that they'll read this anyway but, here, just for them.
Do the Oscars matter?
Do the Oscars matter?
NOOO!
Are they always right?
NOOOOO!
NOOOOO!
Are they a barometer of quality?
NO!
Why should I care?
WHAT THE- NOBODY'S FORCING YOU OR TELLING YOU to CARE! If you don't care, fine.
WHAT THE- NOBODY'S FORCING YOU OR TELLING YOU to CARE! If you don't care, fine.
Are their many legitimate problems/issues with the Oscars and the Academy?
YES! MANY OF THEM!
Do I think any of these arguments are a good reason to be so vehemently anti-Oscars (and/or awards in general) that you should take a moment of your life to comment your frustration on mine, or anyone else's Oscar posts?
N-...- Actually to be fair, their might be one or two good reasons... but mostly NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!
Do I care at all about any of this from you?
That's a firm, NnnnnO!
That's a firm, NnnnnO!
I've never heard a good anti-Oscars argument, bet even if I did, who cares? It's just the Oscars, have fun! Don't take any of this so seriously, we don't! And who knows, maybe this year, your favorite movie with the word "Spider-Man" in the title will win this year?
Will it?!
No.
But there's other good films out there and hopefully they'll honor some of them.
(Singing)
It's-a won-derful, da-aaaay, for OSCAR! Oscar! Oscar! Who will-
(Tries to keep singing, but falters)
eh, be-Nom, in-ate-ed? (Ugh, that doesn't sound so good as the regular lyrics, does it?!)
Well, we'll find out who's nominated soon enough, but let me put my Carnac hat on and let's see if I can call them anyway.
(Puts on Carnac hat.)
Let's go.
BEST PICTURE (Possibles, longlist)
"Annette"
"Ascension"
"Being the Ricardos"
"Blue Bayou"
"Bruised"
"C'mon C'mon"
"The Card Counter"
"CODA"
"The Courier"
"Cruella"
"Cry Macho"
"Cyrano"
"Dear Evan Hansen"
"Don't Look Up"
"Drive My Car"
"Dune"
"East of the Moutains"
"Electrical Life of Louis Wain"
"Encanto"
"Encounter"
"Eternals"
"Everybody's Talking About Jamie"
"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
"Finch"
"The First Wave"
"Flag Day"
"Flee"
"The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
"The Green Knight"
"The Guilty"
"The Hand of God"
"The Harder They Fall"
"A Hero"
"House of Gucci"
"The Humans"
"In the Heights"
"In the Same Breath"
"Jockey"
"Joe Bell"
"A Journal for Jordan"
"The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain"
"The Killing of Two Lovers"
"King Richard"
"The Last Duel"
"Last Night in Soho"
"Licorice Pizza"
"The Lost Daughter"
"Luca"
"The Many Saints of Neward"
"Mass"
"Memoria"
"The Mitchells vs. the Machine"
"Mothering Sunday"
"Nightmare Alley"
"Nine Days"
"No Time to Die"
"Nobody"
"Official Competition"
"Parallel Mothers"
"Passing"
"Petite Maman"
"Pig"
"The Power of the Dog"
"A Quiet Place Part II"
"Raya and the Last Dragon"
"Red Rocket"
"The Rescue"
"Respect"
"Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings"
"Shiva Baby"
"Sing 2"
"The Sparks Brothers"
"Spencer"
"Spider-Man: No Way Home"
"Stillwater"
"Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)"
"Swan Song"
"The Tender Bar"
"Test Pattern"
"tick, tick...BOOM!"
"Titane"
"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
"The Unforgivable"
"Violet"
"West Side Story"
"Who We Are: A Chronicle of Racism in America
"The Woman in the Window"
"The Worst Person in the World"
One of these years, I'm gonna remember, at least for Best Picture, that I can just, put a link to the Academy's Reminder List of eligible films. Stupid me, making everything complicated. Well, the counting of the Best Picture votes isn't as complicated this year, btw; for now, we're back to a Top Ten nominees, no more mysterious number between 5 and 10, that was just always, 8 or 9. Now, they're still using the preferential voting method for the category, so we still have to consider movies that are getting the most number one and number two and three votes more. That said, PGA's ballot seems pretty reasonable here. Usually there's at least one blockbuster, like a "Star Trek" or something, that's never a BP competitor but gets in because it's the producers and they like the money they make. This time, around.... Well, let's get the big ones out of the way, "The Power of the Dog" is in, "Belfast" is in, well, all five of the DGA's I suspect are in. That's not always a guarantee, but I think that's solid here. (And they're the top five on GD's rankings.) In terms of passion vote, "Don't Look Up" and "Drive My Car" I feel are in. The weird one here is "CODA", which, looks a lot like it's gonna get in and be "The Blind Side" or "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" this year. That one weird movie that gets into Picture in a ten-film field that may only get one other nomination. Well, that and "tick, tick...BOOM!" like, eh,... I think there's passion for it. Andrew Garfield keeps popping us consistently, but not a lot else. I'm gonna throw "The Tragedy of Macbeth" in there; they're technically listed as a longshot, but it's Shakespeare and it's the Coens, if that doesn't bring in enough actor voters, and the actors being the branch with the most members, which btw, more voters this year then ever before apparently, according to the A.M.P.A.S., then I don't know what will. That leaves one spot left, and I'm debating between "Being the Ricardos", "CODA" and "tick, tick...BOOM!". I'm gonna toss out the latter, 'cause I think the other two have the best chance at winning something. So, is Nicole more likely to win, or is Troy Kotsur more likely to win.... Hmmm.... They've snubbed Sorkin before, they can snub him again.
BEST PICTURE (PREDICTIONS)
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
BEST DIRECTOR (Possibles, longlist)
Paul Thomas Anderson-"Licorice Pizza"
Wes Anderson-"The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
Frano Bailey-Bond-"Censor"
Sean Baker-"Red Rocket"
Justine Bateman-"Violet"
Clint Bentley-"Jockey"
Halle Berry-"Bruised"
Jessica Beshir-"Faya Dayi"
Kenneth Branagh-"Belfast"
Janicz Bravo-"Zola"
Jonathan Butterell-"Everybody's Talking About Jamie"
Jane Campion-"The Power of the Dog"
Leos Carax-"Annette"
Elizabeht Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin-"The Rescue"
Justin Chon-"Blue Bayou"
Jon M. Chu-"In the Heights"
Benjamin Cleary-"Swan Song"
George Clooney-"The Tender Bar"
Joel Coen-"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Mariano Cohn, Gaston Duprat-"Official Competition"
Dominic Cooke-"The Courier"
Nia DaCosta-"Candyman"
Guillermo Del Toro-"Nightmare Alley"
Julia DuCournau-"Titane"
Clint Eastwood-"Cry Macho"
Asghar Farhadi-"A Hero"
Nora Fingscheidt-"The Unforgivable"
Shatara Michelle Ford-"Test Pattern"
Cary Joji Fukunaga-"No Time to Die"
Antoine Fuqua-"The Guilty"
Liz Garbus-"Becoming Cousteau"
Reinaldo Marcus Green-"King Richard"
Maggie Gyllenhaal-"The Lost Daughter"
Lauren Hadaway-"The Novice"
Rebecca Hall-"Passing"
Ryusuke HAMAGUCHI-"Drive My Car"
Sian Heder-"CODA"
Joanna Hogg-"The Souvenir Part II"
Tatiana Huezo-"Prayers for the Stolen"
Eva Husson-"Mothering Sunday"
Stephen Karam-"The Humans"
Jessica Kingdon-"Ascension"
Fran Kranz-"Mass"
John Krasinski-"A Quiet Place Part II"
Pablo Larrain-"Spencer"
David Lowery-"The Green Knight"
Tom McCarthy-"Stillwater"
John Michael McDonaugh-"The Forgiven"
Theodore Melfi-"The Starling"
Mike Mills-"C'mon C'mon"
Lin-Manuel Miranda-"tick, tick...BOOM!"
Stanley Nelson, Traci Curry-"Attica"
Pablo Larrain-"Spencer"
Edson Oda-"Nine Days"
Sean Penn-"Flag Day"
Questlove-"Summer of Love (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)"
Johas Poher Rasmussen-"Flee"
Michael Rianda-"The Mitchells vs. the Machine"
Jeymes Samuel-"The Harder They Fall"
Miguel Sapochnik-"Finch"
Michael Sarnoski-"Pig"
Michael Showalter-"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
Paul Schrader-"The Card Counter"
Celine Sciamma-"Petite Maman
Ridley Scott-"House of Gucci"
Ridley Scott-"The Last Duel"
Emma Seligman-"Shiva Baby"
Will Shapre-"Electrical Life of Louis Wain"
Aaron Sorkin-"Being the Ricardos"
Paolo Sorrentino-"The Hand of God"
Steven Spielberg-"West Side Story"
Liesl Tommy-"Respect"
Joachim Trier-"The Worst Person in the World"
Denis Villeneuve-"Dune"
Denzel Washington-"A Journal for Jordan"
Apichatpong Weerasethakul-"Memoria"
Edgar Wright-"The Sparks Brothers"
Joe Wright-"Cyrano"
Joe Wright-"The Woman in the Window"
Chloe ZHAO-"Eternals"
If Kenneth Branagh gets nominated here and as a producer for Best Picture, he'll set the record by being the first person to be nominated for an Oscar in seven different categories. (Currently George Clooney holds the record with six). "Belfast" is trending, as it got the DGA nod along with P.T. Anderson, Jane Campion, who's the heavy favorite at the moment, Spielberg, and Denis Villeneuve. This is the safe bet, but certainly not the only possibility. Joel Coen, Adam McKay, Wes Anderson, and maybe Maggie Gyllenhaal, depending on the push and passion for their respective films, could squeak in, however if there's really a safe bet for a new nominee from DGA, it's Ryusuke HAMAGUCHI for "Drive My Car". Directors are more known then other categories to look foreign for a surprise nominee here, and this one seems almost assured to get in, the only question is who's slipping out. BAFTA's not the best barometer this year, but they did leave off Spielberg, Branagh, and the name I'm suspecting we're overrating, Villeneuve. "Dune" feels a lot like this year's "Inception", and that film won four Oscars in craft, got eight overall, no acting nominations, and most importantly, missed Director, in a year where everyone thought he was a lock. Campion, Branagh and Anderson seem to be on the up-and-up, "Dune" came out awhile ago, and I can definitely see the Academy thinking, "It's been a few years now, it seems like it's time to nominate Spielberg again, right?"
BEST DIRECTOR (PREDICTIONS)
Paul Thomas Anderson-"Licorice Pizza"
Kenneth Branagh-"Belfast"
Jane Campion-"The Power of the Dog"
Ryusuke HAMAGUCHI-"Drive My Car"
Steven Spielberg-"West Side Story"
BEST ACTOR (Possibles, longlist)
Riz Ahmed-"Encounter"
Mahershala Ali-"Swan Song"
Javier Bardem-"Being the Ricardos"
Tim Blake-Nelson-"Old Henry"
Yuriy Borisov-"Compartment No. 6"
Jim Broadbent-"The Duke"
Nicholas Cage-"Pig"
Timothee Chalamet-"Dune"
Justin Chon-"Blue Bayou"
Clifton Collins, Jr.-"Jockey"
Bradley Cooper-"Nightmare Alley"
Clayne Crawford-"The Killing of Two Lovers"
Daniel Craig-"No Time to Die"
Benedict Cumberbatch-"The Courier"
Benedict Cumberbatch-"The Electrical Life of Louis Wain"
Benedict Cumberbatch-"The Power of the Dog"
Matt Damon-"Stillwater"
Leonardo DiCaprio-"Don't Look Up"
Peter Dinklage-"Cyrano"
Adam Driver-"Annette"
Adam Driver-"House of Gucci"
Winston Duke-"Nine Days"
Clint Eastwood-"Cry Macho"
Ansel Elgort-"West Side Story"
Frankie Faison-"The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain"
Michael Gandolfini-"The Many Saints of Newark"
Andrew Garfield-"tick, tick...BOOM!"
Jake Gyllenhaal-"The Guilty"
Tom Hanks-"Finch"
Max Harwood-"Everybody's Talking About Jamie"
Jude Hill-"Belfast"
Cooper Hoffman-"Licorice Pizza"
Oscar Isaac-"The Card Counter"
Jason Isaacs-"Mass"
Amir Jadidi-"A Hero"
Michael B. Jordan-"A Journal for Jordan"
Harvey Keitel-"Lansky"
Udo Kier-"Swan Song"
Vincent Lindon-"Titane"
Simu LIU-"Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings"
Jonathan Majors-"The Harder They Fall"
Mads Mikkelsen-"Riders of Justice"
Hidetomi NISHIJIMA-"Drive My Car"
Alessandro Nivola-"The Many Saints of Newark"
Josh O'Connor-"Mothering Sunday"
Bob Odenkirk-"Nobody"
Dev Patel-"The Green Knight"
Sean Penn-"Flag Day"
Ben Platt-"Dear Evan Hansen"
Joaquin Phoenix-"C'mon C'mon"
Anthony Ramos-"In the Heights"
Simon Rex-"Red Rocket"
Fillippo Scotti-"The Hand of God"
Tom Skerritt-"East of the Mountains"
Will Smith-"King Richard"
Mark Wahlberg-"Joe Bell"
Denzel Washington-"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Steven YEUN-"The Humans"
SAG went a little off-the-beaten track by throwing in Javier Bardem into the mix with Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith and Washington. Those latter four, have pretty much shown up everywhere, with the last spot being the one that is slightly difficult for anybody to agree on. Critics Choice took Nicolas Cage and Peter Dinklage in their last two spots. BAFTA left off Garfield curiously enough, but put in DiCaprio, as well as Mahershala Ali, which the Globes also added. Joaquin Phoenix, Simon Rex, Oscar Isaac and Hidetomi NISHIJIMA seem the most likely to play potential spoilers unless they go way off like Chalamet or Dev Patel or jake Gyllenhaal, or either of Adam Driver's performances. Personally, I don't think "Being the Ricardos" is getting that much love, and I suspect those nominees from SAG won't hold up, but then you gotta figure out who's in instead. Gold Derby has Dinklage and DiCaprio in those last spots. with Nicolas Cage being the only other person under 100-1, and only barely at that. Part of me really wants to take a shot on NISHIJIMA getting that last spot. If "Drive My Car" is potential a BP spoiler, then it's gotta get something other else, right? Director, Writing, probably, but maybe it can get an acting nod. Hmmm.... I can see DiCaprio getting that late surge nomination for a divisive comedic film again like he did for "The Wolf of Wall Street" many years ago, but this movie feels even more divided then that one. It did get into SAG Ensemble, can it carry an actor into it? Personally, I want to throw Dinklage in there, but that BAFTA snub where DiCaprio hit...- now, BAFTA's differently then they have in the past, but "Cyrano" got into Best British Film, but still missed out on Actor after that.... Yikes. I don't know, "Cyrano" hasn't done that well across the Guilds either, but I don't think there's the passion for DiCaprio to get in again, or for Cage either.... Screw it, I'm gonna gamble on a passion vote here.
BEST ACTOR (PREDICTIONS)
Benedict Cumberbatch-"The Power of the Dog"
Andrew Garfield-"tick, tick...BOOM!"
Hidetoshi NISHIJIMA-"Drive My Car"
Will Smith-"King Richard"
Denzel Washington-"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
BEST ACTRESS (Possibles, longlist)
Amy Adams-"The Woman in the Window"
Niamh Algar-"Censor"
Melissa Barrera-"In the Heights"
Zazie Beets-"The Harder They Fall"
Sandra Bullock-"The Unforgivable"
Rose Byrne-"Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway"
Jessica Chastain-"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
Jessica Chastain-"The Forgiven"
Olivia Colman-"The Lost Daughter"
Jodie Comer-"The Last Duel"
Marion Cotillard-"Annette"
Penelope Cruz-"Official Competition"
Penelope Cruz-"Parallel Mothers"
Virginia Efira-"Benedetta"
Bernie Feldstein-"The Humans"
Isabelle Fuhrman-"The Novice"
Lady Gaga-"House of Gucci"
Seidi Haarla-"Compartment No. 6"
Alana Haim-"Licorice Pizza"
Brittany S. Hall-"Test Pattern"
Naomie Harris-"Swan Song"
Patti Harrison-"Together Together"
Jennifer Hudson-"Respect"
Scarlett Johansson-"Black Widow"
Angelina Jolie-"Eternals"
Emilia Jones-"CODA"
Nicole Kidman-"Being the Ricardos"
Jennifer Lawrence-"Don't Look Up"
Rooney Mara-"Nightmare Alley"
Melissa McCarthy-"The Starling"
Frances McDormand-"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Thomasin McKenzie-"Last Night in Soho"
Helen Mirren-"The Duke"
Olivia Munn-"Violet"
Genevieve O'Reilly-"The Dry"
Taylour Paige-"Zola"
Noomi Rapace-"Lamb"
Renate Reinsve-"The Worst Person in the World"
Kali Reis-"Catch the Fair One"
Agatha Rousselle-"Titane"
Rachel Sennott-"Shiva Baby"
Millicent Simmonds-"A Quiet Place Part II"
Kristen Stewart-"Spencer"
Emma Stone-"Cruella"
Tilda Swinton-"Memoria"
Tessa Thompson-"Passing"
Rachel Zegler-"West Side Story"
This has been a rough and confusing Best Actress season to follow. The name everybody thought was gonna be the easy winner, Kristen Stewart has missed almost everything. Missed, SAG, missed BAFTA, got in at Critics; she didn't even win at the Globes, losing to Nicole Kidman, of all people. Hell, she missed the BAFTA shortlist, which, eh, take with a grain of salt 'cause BAFTA's been weird for the last two years in general, but "Spencer" hasn't been showing up at most places in general were we'd think it'd show up. Some think it might just be Diana overload; I mean, this would be the second time, if the odds hold up, where Olivia Colman would win a major award over a performer playing Princess Di. Honestly, I can't blame them for that; I'm fairly sick of all the '90s nostalgia all over my entertainment myself. (I am so dreading having to watch that damn "Pam and Tommy" miniseries) So, Colman's ahead, Stewart's hanging on by a thread, Nicole Kidman is soaring towards the top, and who's the only person who got in at SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA and the Globes? Lady Gaga! Okay, so she's one getting in, who else? Well, SAG went with Jennifer Hudson, but that's and the Globes are the only place she's shown up. They also picked Jessica Chastain, who missed BAFTA, but, ehh, she's playing a very American character, and I don't know if anybody expected her to get in there. (Although the film got in for Makeup, the BAFTA knew that much about her...) Kidman, missed BAFTA, won at Globes, and is in at Critics. Colman, also missed BAFTA. Making BAFTA, Globes and Critics, but missing SAG was Alana Haim, I want to say that that might be just the group missing "Licorice Pizza", but they did nominate Bradley Cooper. This is why everybody's looking off-the-board, and the name that's jumped up that missed everything is Penelope Cruz. It does make sense, she's been a lone nominee for an Almodovar film before, that was a surprise nomination, it's often the foreign actress in the more down-to-earth role, and well, there's a lot of famous people in this category. Except for Colman and Haim, every major name I've listed so far, is from a biopic. Academy members could be trying to pick from Lucille Ball, Tammy Faye Baker, Aretha frickin' Franklin!, Lady Di, and Patricia Reggiani! Oh, and if you want to throw in Rachel Zegler, who won for a musical at the Globes, Maria!!!!!!! Oh, and like, in place in the odds right now, Frances McDormand as LADY MACBETH!!!!!!!!!!
No wonder nobody can pick this category. UGH! I will genuinely be happy, if I somehow get two of these right in this category!
BEST ACTRESS (PREDICTIONS)
Olivia Colman-"The Lost Daughter"
Lady Gaga-"House of Gucci"
Jennifer Hudson-"Respect"
Nicole Kidman-"Being the Ricardos"
Kristen Stewart-"Spencer"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (Possibles, longlist)
Moises Arias-"Jockey"
Richard Ayoade-"The Souvenir Part II"
Javier Bardem-"Dune"
Joe Bernthal-"King Richard"
Joe Bernthal-"The Many Saints of Newark"
Reed Birney-"Mass"
Adrian Brody-"The French Dispatch for the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
Josh Brolin-"Dune"
Josh Brolin-"Flag Day"
Timothee Chalamet-"Don't Look Up"
Timothee Chalamet-"The French Dispatch for the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
Bradley Cooper-"House of Gucci"
Bradley Cooper-"Licorice Pizza"
Vincent D'Onofrio-"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
Vincent D'Onofrio-"The Unforgivable"
Willem Dafoe-"The Card Counter"
Willem Dafoe-"Nightmare Alley"
Willem Dafoe-"Spider-Man: No Way Home"
Robin de Jesus-"tick, tick...BOOM!"
Benicio Del Toro-"The French Dispatch for the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
Eugenio Derbez-"CODA"
Gregory Diaz IV-"In the Heights"
Colman Domingo-"Zola"
Jamie Dornan-"Belfast"
Daniel Durant-"CODA"
Idris Elba-"The Harder They Fall"
Mike Faist-"West Side Story"
Colin Firth-"Mothering Sunday"
Andrew Garfield-"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
Brendan Gleeson-"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Richard E. Grant-"Everybody's Talking About Jamie"
Kit Harrington-"Eternals"
Ed Harris-"The Lost Daughter"
Kelvin Harrison, Jr.-"Cyrano"
Paul Walter Hauser-"Cruella"
Corey Hawkins-"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Simon Helberg-"Annette"
Jonah Hill-"Don't Look Up"
Ciaran Hinds-"Belfast"
Andre Holland-"Passing"
Jeremy irons-"House of Gucci"
Oscar Isaac-"Dune"
Jason Isaacs-"Mass"
Brian D'Arcy James-"West Side Story"
Richard Jenkins-"The Humans"
Richard Jenkins-"Nightmare Alley"
Caleb Landry Jones-"Finch"
Nikolaj Lie Kaas-"Riders of Justice"
Delroy Lindo-"The Harder They Fall"
Barry Keoghan-"The Green Knight"
Troy Kotsur-"CODA"
Jared Leto-"House of Gucci"
Anders Danielsen Lie-"The Worst Person in the World"
Vincent Lindon-"Titane"
Ray Liotta-"The Many Saints of Newark"
Richard Madden-"Eternals"
Billy Magnussen-"The Many Saints of Newark"
Rami Malek-"No Time to Die"
Ben Mendehlson-"Cyrano"
Paul Mescal-"The Lost Daughter"
Reid Miller-"Joe Bell"
Rob Morgan-"Don't Look Up"
Cillian Murphy-"A Quiet Place Part II"
Bill Murray-"The French Dispatch for the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
Alessandro Nivola-"The Many Saints of Newark
Woody Norman-"C'mon C'mon"
Mark O'Brien-"Blue Bayou"
Chris O'Dowd-"The Starling"
Leslie Odom, Jr.-"The Many Saints of Newark"
Masaki OKADA-"Drive My Car"
Timothy Olyphant-"The Starling"
Al Pacino-"House of Gucci"
Sean Penn-"Licorice Pizza"
Jesse Plemons-"The Power of the Dog"
Daniel Ranieri-"The Tender Bar"
Mark Rylance-"Don't Look Up"
Benny Safdie-"Licorice Pizza"
Peter Sarsgaard-"The Lost Daughter"
Toni Servillo-"The Hand of God"
Tye Sheridan-"The Card Counter"
J.K. Simmons-"Being the Ricardos"
Gary Sinise-"Joe Bell"
Stellan Skarsgard-"Dune"
Kodi Smit-McPhee-"The Power of the Dog"
Jimmy Smits "In the Heights"
Timothy Spall-"Spencer"
LaKeith Stanfield-"The Harder They Fall"
Corey Stoll-"The Many Saints of Newark"
Corey Stoll-"West Side Story"
David Straitharn-"Nightmare Alley"
Marlon Wayans-"Respect"
Bradley Whitford-"tick, tick...BOOM!"
Owen Wilson-"The French Dispatch for the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
Alex Wolff-"Pig"
Benedict WONG-"Nine Days"
Jeffrey Wright-"The French Dispatch for the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
Gold Derby seriously put a line on way too many people for this category. Anyway, I'm not terribly trusting of SAG here. I'm sure Ben Affleck is good in "The Tender Bar", but that seems like a longshot at best. I gotta imagine at least somebody from "Belfast" is getting in here and Ciaran Hinds has shown up the most, and he's pretty beloved; they've been waiting for an excuse to give him a nomination. That leaves Jared Leto for "House of Gucci". I-eh, I don't know what to make of that one; to me this feels like last year when he kept getting in for "The Little Things" which not too many people liked. "House of Gucci" is a little more popular, but most everything I hear about it is how great Lady Gaga is, and it's always just weird to see his name keep popping up. He got in Critics so I don't think it's a fluke. "House of Gucci" did do really well at SAG, but there's always one Ensemble nominee that doesn't translate across to the other awards. If it's not him though, who's getting in? Could it be Affleck? Another actor from "Belfast" or "The Power of the Dog"? Maybe, I can see them finally deciding to honor Jesse Plemons here. I can also see them go off-the-board and take J.K. Simmons or someone like that. Or maybe they really like "West Side Story" and Mike Faist gets in. One name that was big at the beginning but stopped showing up was Jeffrey Wright; I'm kinda shocked he's never been nominated, but is "The French Dispatch..." one of Wes Anderson's more beloved ones? It's been losing steam most award season. (Sigh) I hate doing this, but I'm gonna go to the BAFTA tiebreaker standby.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (PREDICTIONS
Bradley Cooper-"Licorice Pizza"
Ciaran Hinds-"Belfast"
Troy Kotsur-"CODA"
Jesse Plemons-"The Power of the Dog"
Kodi Smit-McPhee-"The Power of the Dog"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Possibles, longlist)
Amy Adams-"Dear Evan Hansen"
Nina Arianda-"Being the Ricardos"
Awkwafina-"Swan Song"
Caitriona Balfe-"Belfast"
Haley Bennett-"Cyrano"
Cate Blanchett-"Don't Look Up"
Cate Blanchett-"Nightmare Alley"
Mary J. Blige-"Respect"
Emily Blunt-"A Quiet Place Part II"
Abigail Breslin-"Stillwater"
Connie Britton-"Joe Bell"
Rachel Brosnahan-"The Courier"
Jessie Buckley-"The Courier"
Jessie Buckley-"The Lost Daughter"
Gemma Chan-"Eternals"
Glenn Close-"Swan Song"
Toni Collette-"Nightmare Alley"
Olivia Colman-"Mothering Sunday"
Jodie Comer-"The Last Duel"
Camille Cottin-"Stillwater"
Viola Davis-"The Unforgivable"
Danielle Deadwyler-"The Harder They Fall"
Ariana DeBose-"West Side Story"
Judi Dench-"Belfast"
Ann Dowd-"Mass"
Kirsten Dunst-"The Power of the Dog"
Aunjanue Ellis-"King Richard"
Vera Farmiga-"The Many Saints of Newark"
Rebecca Ferguson-"Dune"
Amy Forsyth-"The Novice"
Claire Foy-"Electrical Life of Louis Wain"
Leslie Grace-"In the Heights"
Judy Greer-"Halloween Kills"
Tiffany Haddish-"The Card Counter"
Laura Harrier-"Finch"
Sally Hawkins-"Spencer"
Salma Hayek-"Eternals"
Salma Hayek-"House of Gucci"
Gaby Hoffman-"C'mon C'mon"
Jayne Houdyshell-"The Humans"
Vanessa Hudgens-"tick, tick...BOOM!"
Kathryn Hunter-"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Dakota Johnson-"The Lost Daughter"
Cherry Jones-"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
Riley Keough-"Zola"
Regina King-"Flag Day'
Regina King-"The Harder They Fall"
Marlee Matlin-"CODA"
Audra MacDonald-"Respect"
Frances McDormand-"The French Dispatch for the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
Frances McDormand-"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Thomasin McKenzie-"The Power of the Dog"
Olga Merediz-"In the Heights"
Julianne Moore-"Dear Evan Hansen"
Toko MIURA-"Drive My Car"
Rita Moreno-"West Side Story"
Ruth Negga-"Passing"
Tig Notaro-"Army of the Dead"
Lauren Patel-"Everybody's Talking About Jamie"
Dylan Penn-"Flag Day"
Linh Dan Pham-"Blue Bayou"
Martha Plimpton-"Mass"
Charlotte Rampling-"Dune"
Lauren Ridloff-"Eternals"
Diana Rigg-"Last Night in Soho"
Andrea Riseborough-"Electrical Life of Louis Wain"
Alexandra Shipp-"tick, tick...BOOM!"
Saniyya Sidney-"King Richard"
Demi Singleton-"King Richard"
Milena Smit-"Parallel Mothers"
Suzanna Son-"Red Rocket"
Tilda Swinton-"The French Dispatch for the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
Miranda Tapsell-"The Dry"
Anya Taylor-Joy-"Last Night in Soho"
Emma Thompson-"Cruella"
Tamara Tunie-"A Journal for Jordan"
Alicia Vikander-"Blue Bayou"
Harriet Walter-"The Last Duel"
Samira Wiley-"Finch"
Kathryn Winnick-"Flag Day"
Zendaya-"Dune"
I'm a little worried about Cate Blanchett. It doesn't seem like "Nightmare Alley" is gonna gain any late momentum, but she got into SAG and I've been burned underestimating her before. (I still can't believe she got in for the "Elizabeth" sequel that time...- I don't know how that happened, but I'm sure Weinstein had something to do with it...) That said, this seems set. I was hoping Marlee Matlin for "CODA" would make a run, but it doesn't seem like it, she's the 6th choice on Gold Derby and she's 33-1 and nobody else is 50-1. Including Rita Moreno, which would've been nice, but she doesn't really need it. Maybe Jessie Buckley, if they like "The Lost Daughter" more then we realize, maybe Ann Dowd, but...- ugh, I'm not expecting a big surprise here. Ruth Negga's the last one in for "Passing"; she's been in before when she's the film's only nominee... Yeah, I'm going paint with everybody else here. I can't make a convincing argument for anyone else and this five sounds the most right anyway.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (PREDICTIONS)
Caitriona Balfe-"Belfast"
Ariana DeBose-"West Side Story"
Kirsten Dunst-"The Power of the Dog"
Aunjanue Ellis-"King Richard"
Ruth Negga-"Passing"
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (Possibles, longlist)
"CODA"
"Cruella"
"Cry Macho"
"Cyrano"
"Dear Evan Hansen"
"Drive My Car"
"The Dry"
"Dune"
"East of the Mountains"
"Electrical Life of Louis Wain"
"Eternals"
"Everybody's Talking About Jamie"
"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
"Flag Day"
"The Forgiven"
"The Green Knight"
"The Guilty"
"House of Gucci"
"The Humans'
"In the Heights"
"A Journal for Jordan"
"The Last Duel"
"The Lost Daughter"
"The Many Saints of Newark"
"Mothering Sunday"
"Nightmare Alley"
"No Time to Die"
"Passing"
"Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway"
"A Quiet Place Part II"
"The Power of the Dog"
"Spider-Man: No Way Home"
"The Tender Bar"
"tick, tick...BOOM!"
"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
"The Unforgivable"
"West Side Story"
"Zola"
Well, the notoriously unreliable WGA, went with "CODA", "Dune", "Nightmare Alley", "tick, tick...BOOM!", and "West Side Story". Both musicals, interestingly enough. Probably not the best standard though, the WGA rules for nominations are pretty limiting. The USC Scripter Award might be a little more accurate; they also went with "Dune", but instead went with "The Lost Daughter", "Passing", "The Power of the Dog", and "The Tragedy of Macbeth". That's also closer in line to the Critics Choice, who went with "West Side Story", over "...Macbeth" oddly enough. I also, three "Spider-Man: No Way Home" into the mix, just because I'll get somebody yelling that I didn't include it. (Sorry, it wasn't on any critics list I'm come across yet, or even on Gold Derby's options.) GD does have something else high, "Drive My Car" in the sixth position odds-wise. That did, show up at BAFTA; they knocked "...Macbeth" and "West Side Story" for it. This is tricky, 'cause are two writers, Joel Coen and Tony Kushner, who don't typically get snubbed by the Academy. Hell, in Coen's case, he tends to sneak in when we're not expecting him, but that's also usually with his brother and this is his first solo effort screenplay. I do think "Drive My Car" is gonna over-perform, but I tend to think Directing only, although the film that I'm comparing that film to a lot, "Red", got in for both unexpectedly. I don't want to trust BAFTA with their new voting system, but maybe they're onto something here? Personally, I kinda want to say "Dune" is a stretch, but it's the only one that's gotten in everywhere. I'll tell ya somewhere "CODA" missed where it really shoulda hit, the Spirit Awards. That was, and is, in this case, a really early award this year, but they remembered Kotsur, and it missed Picture and Screenplay; there's not a 100% correlation, but that might be enough to keep it out. And it probably was harder to adapt "West Side Story" then it would be, "...Macbeth"
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (PREDICTIONS)
Drive My Car-Ryusuke HAMAGUCHI and Takamasa OE
Dune-Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
The Lost Daughter-Maggie Gyllenhaal
The Power of the Dog-Jane Campion
West Side Story-Tony Kushner
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (Possibles, longlist)
"Annette"
"Becoming Cousteau"
"Belfast"
"Being the Ricardos"
"Blue Bayou"
"Bruised"
"The Card Counter"
"C'mon C'mon"
"The Courier"
"Don't Look Up"
"El Planeta"
"Encounter"
"Exposing Muybridge"
"Finch"
"The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
"The Hand of God"
"The Harder They Fall"
"A Hero"
"Joe Bell"
"King Richard"
"Last Night in Soho"
"Licorice Pizza"
"Like a Rolling Stone: The Life and Times of Ben Fong-Torres
"Mass"
"Memoria"
"The Mitchells vs. the Machines"
"Nine Days"
"Official Competition"
"Parallel Mothers"
"Pig"
"Red Rocket"
"Respect"
"Shiva Baby"
"Spencer"
"The Starling"
"Stillwater"
"Swan Song"
"Test Pattern"
"Titane"
"Together Together"
"Violet"
"The Woman in the Window"
"The Worst Person in the World"
WGA, seems a little more likely here then I suspect they are with Adapted. They took "Being the Ricardos", "Don't Look Up", "The French Dispatch...", "King Richard" and "Licorice Pizza" which seems to be the likely favorite. The one notable absent name is "Belfast", which, probably wasn't eligible, and/or is only catching on late here. Both Critics and BAFTA basically have the same lineup, with "Belfast" knocking out "The French Dispatch...", interestingly enough. In fact, despite getting WGA, it's at 100/1 amongst the longshots on GD, with "Mass" and "Parallel Mothers" being the only two outside of the top five at 50-1 or better. I can see this going either way, both Pedro Almodovar have shown up and been snubbed for their writing here in the past, even while their films garnered critical acclaim and likely acting nominations. "Parallel Mothers" also wasn't submitted by Spain for the International Film category, so, this or Penelope Cruz are probably the most likely places they would get in, if the Academy wants to honor the film. Hmmm... I don't know, I want to pick Almodovar, but I think he would've showed up at BAFTA or Critics.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (PREDICTIONS)
Being the Ricardos-Aaron Sorkin
Belfast-Kenneth Branagh
Don't Look Up-Adam McKay & David Sirota; Story by Adam McKay
King Richard-Zach Baylin
Licorice Pizza-Paul Thomas Anderson
BEST ANIMATED FILM (Eligibles)
The Addams Family 2
The Ape Star
Back to the Outback
Belle
Bob Spit - We Do not Like People
The Boss Baby: Family Business
Cryptozoo
Encanto
Flee
Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko
Josee, the Tiger and the Fish
The Laws of the Universe - The Age of Elohim
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
My Sunny Maad
Paw Patrol: The Movie
Pompo the Cinephile
Poupelle of Chimney Town
Raya and the Last Dragon
Ron's Gone Wrong
Sing 2
The Spine of Night
The Summit of the Gods
Vivo
Wish Drago
I think pretty much everybody has the "Encanto", "The Mitchells vs. the Machines" and probably "Raya and the Last Dragon". "Encanto" and "The Mitchells", with "Luca" probably win, despite not being particularly good, because Pixar. The last spot, I suspect most people are putting "Flee", which makes sense, except a documentary has never been nominated in this category before. I don't know how much the animation branch regards the film. They've had opportunities, like "Waltz with Bashir", but that underperformed severely everywhere. I think the question however is, if not "Flee" then what? (Shrugs) Well, "Sing 2" might be the most obvious, but I don't remember the original being particularly beloved; that hasn't stopped the Academy before, "Despicable Me 2" got nominated after "Despicable Me" didn't, but is the "Sing" franchise that big? I think "Vivo" could play a small spoiler, but I think all it's votes are going to "Encanto." So, maybe an anime like "Belle", but going over the past list, there hasn't been in anime nominated since "When Marnie Was There", that's a long time. European anime has done a lot better. Also the Academy has doubled up docs in other categories like Foreign Language film in recent years, and "Flee" could even triple up this year. I'm gonna play the category safe.
ANIMATED FEATURE (PREDICTIONS)
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machine
Raya and the Last Dragon
Raya and the Last Dragon
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (Shortlist)
"Ascension"
"Attica"
"Billie Eilish: The World's a Little Blurry"
"Faya Dayi"
"Flee"
"In the Same Breath"
"Julia"
"President"
"Procession"
"The Rescue"
"The Rescue"
"Simple as Water"
"Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)"
"The Velvet Underground"
"Writing with Fire"
The notorious unpredictability of the Documentary category is one thing, but the damnedest thing is how, pretty universally, it seems like they just nailed this category. I've seen every title show up on awards results somewhere so far at least once, and most of these, multiple times each. This category is severely overloaded, and I'm not overlooking any possibility of any of these films getting in; a good argument can be made for any of them. All eight PGA nominees are in this group. All but one of the DGA nominees are here. The cinematographers got "Faya Dayi" in their guild, and if you've noticed with recent winners, filmmaking, particularly the quality of the look of the film, and the skill involved in the cinematography has been a key factor is the winners lately. (This is probably why I suspect both, "Free Solo" and "My Octopus Teacher" won this category in recent years). There are a few who have constantly stood out though, "Flee" the animated doc from Denmark that could sneak into Animated, Documentary and International Feature in the same year, (Which would be a first) and "Summer of Soul..." Questlove's debut feature that got a big boost at BAFTA by getting into Editing as well. After that, it's a bit of a game of pick-your-poison. If "Summer of Soul" doesn't knock out the music nominees, "...The World's a Little Blurry" and "The Velvet Underground" are likely spoilers. "The First Wave" and "In the Same Breath" documents the beginning of our recent/current pandemic, so that's got timeliness on it's side. If we're going with, difficulty filming, "The Rescue", National Geographic's submission this years, is a very likely candidate. If we're talking subject matter, on top of the COVID ones, there's the Catholic priests abuse film, there's the historical prison riot film, there's the Syrian war film, there's the documenting modern politics film.... There's something for everybody in this category, and this is the most crapshoot the nomination predictions have been for this category in a while. I have a feeling this year will be regarded as one of the all-time greats for documentaries, and not just because we've spent the last couple years stuck inside streaming them all the time.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (PREDICTIONS)
Flee
In the Same Breath
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (shortlist)
Austria-"Great Freedom"
Belgium-"Playground"
Bhutan-"Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom"
Denmark-"Flee"
Finland-"Compartment No. 6"
Iceland-"Lamb"
Iran-"A Hero"
Italy-"The Hand of God"
Japan-"Drive My Car"
Kosovo-"Hive"
Mexico-"Prayers for the Stolen"
Norway-"The Worst Person in the World"
Norway-"The Worst Person in the World"
Panama-"Plaza Catedral"
Spain-"The Good Boss"
This is always an unpredictable category from the shortlist. But there's been some clues. "Flee" feels like it's in, especially after "Honeyland" and "Collective" pulled off the double nominees for International and Documentary feature. If "Drive My Car" isn't a lock, then I don't know what is; it could get into Best Picture. The only real obvious omission here seems to be "Titane", but there's a decent collection here. "A Hero" seems like it's in, that's Asghar Farhadi, probably the best filmmaker here of the bunch. "The Hand of God" is Paolo Sorrentino's feature, he won this category a few years ago for "The Great Beauty", so he's got a decent shot. "The Worst Person in the World" also seems like it's likely in, that's Joachim Trier's film; he's one of the bigger Norwegian filmmakers around; he made, "Thelma", "Reprise", "Oslo, August 31", he's overdue for a nomination and this seems like his most popular film yet. That should be the five, but there's some spoilers here. "The Good Boss" stars Javier Bardem, and that film got the Spain submission over Pedro Almodovar's "Parallel Mothers", which stars, ironically, his wife, Penelope Cruz, and that's a potential spoiler, and that film's got a good director too, Fernando Leon de Aronoa; he made "Barrio" and "Amador". The guy who directed "Lamb" is actually fairly well-known behind-the-scenes in Hollywood for his special effects work, and that movie stars Noomi Rapace who's fairly well-known and beloved actress, but I don't know if that will translate to votes though. I've seen "Compartment No. 6" and "Prayers for the Stolen" also pop up on the awards circuit enough to give me pause as well. I hate to go paint with this category, because there's always some spoiler, but I'm not sure I see it. I think Kosovo, Panama and Bhutan will have to wait another year for their countries to get represented in this category.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (PREDICTIONS)
Drive My Car [Japan]
Flee [Denmark]
The Hand of God [Italy]
A Hero [Iran]
The Worst Person in the World [Norway]
CINEMATOGRAPHY (possibles, longlist)
"Annette"
"Ascension"
"Being the Ricardos"
"Belfast"
"Black Widow"
"Blue Bayou"
"Bruised"
"C'mon C'mon"
"The Card Counter"
"CODA"
"A Cop Movie"
"Cry Macho"
"Cusp"
"Cyrano"
"Dear Evan Hansen"
"Don't Look Up"
"Dune"
"Electrical Life of Louis Wain"
"Encanto"
"Encounter"
"Eternals"
"Everybody's Talking About Jamie"
"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
"Faya Dayi"
"Finch"
"The First Wave"
"The Forgiven"
"The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
"Ghostbusters: Afterlife"
"Godzilla vs. Kong"
"The Green Knight"
"The Hand of God"
"The Harder They Fall"
"A Hero"
"House of Gucci"
"The Humans"
"In the Heights"
"Jockey"
"A Journal for Jordan"
"King Richard"
"The Last Duel"
"Last Night in Soho"
"Licorice Pizza"
"The Loneliest Whale: The Search for 52"
"The Lost Daughter"
"The Lost Leonardo"
"The Many Saints of Newark"
"Mass"
"The Matrix Resurrections"
"Memoria"
"Mothering Sunday"
"Nightmare Alley"
"Nine Days"
"No Time to Die"
"Official Competition"
"Old"
"Parallel Mothers"
"Passing"
"Pig"
"The Power of the Dog"
"A Quiet Place Part II"
"Raya and the Last Dragon"
"Red Rocket"
"The Rescue"
"Respect"
"Shang-Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings"
"Spencer"
"Spider-Man: No Way Home"
"Stillwater"
"Swan Song"
"The Tender Bar"
"tick, tick...BOOM!"
"Titane"
"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
"The Unforgivable"
"West Side Story"
"The Worst Person in the World"
"Zola"
The American Society of Cinematographers Guild, or the ASC's have been a pretty accurate barometer over the years in the category. They went with "Belfast", "Dune", "Nightmare Alley", "The Power of the Dog" and "The Tragedy of Macbeth" in their main award with some supplemental honors going to "Jockey", "Pig", "Titane", "Cusp" and "Faya Dayi". Those latter two are documentaries which don't ever get nominated in this category, but "Titane" is an interesting potential spoiler. However, off the board, the film that has been singled out a lot by critics and other awards in the category has been "The Green Knight". That's a tempting one to throw in there. So is "West Side Story", which a lot of people thought was snubbed by the Guild, and it is a bit; not nominating Janusz Kaminski seems a little odd for them. He's missed before and gotten in, and he's also been nominated and missed, so it might just be a mood thing with them, depending on whether or not they like the Spielberg film that year. Gut instinct, I gotta think it's in. I have "Dune", "The Power of the Dog" and "The Tragedy of Macbeth" basically locked in. That leaves, "Belfast", "Nightmare Alley" and maybe a spoiler or two out there. I'm worried about underestimating "Titane"; it wouldn't be the first time this category in recent years has gone completely off the board. I do think they like "Belfast" too much. "Nightmare Alley" just seems like an odd one out here; I know they like Del Toro's cinematographers when he's got a good film, but "Nightmare Alley" just seems to be floundering out there right now. I was thinking going go off the board and take "Titane" and I still think that could happen, but after rewatching the trailers for all these films, boy is it hard to go against Kaminski.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (PREDICTIONS)
Belfast-Haris Zambarloukos
Dune-Greig Fraser
The Power of the Dog-Ari Wegner
The Tragedy of Macbeth-Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story-Janusz Kaminski
COSTUME DESIGN (Possibles, longlists)
"Annette"
"Belfast"
"Black Widow"
"Blue Bayou"
"Bruised"
"C'mon C'mon"
"The Card Counter"
"CODA"
"Coming 2 America"
"Cruella"
"Cry Macho"
"Cyrano"
"Dear Evan Hansen"
"Don't Look Up"
"The Dry"
"Dune"
"Electrical Life of Louis Wain"
"Encounter"
"Eternals"
"Everybody's Talkin' About Jamie"
"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
"Finch"
"Free Guy"
"The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
"Ghostbusters: Afterlife"
"The Green Knight"
"The Hand of God"
"The Harder They Fall"
"A Hero"
"House of Gucci"
"The Humans"
"In the Heights"
"Jockey"
"A Journal for Jordan"
"Jungle Cruise"
"King Richard"
"Lansky"
"The Last Duel"
"Last Night in Soho"
"Licorice Pizza"
"The Lost Daughter"
"The Many Saints of Newark"
"Mass"
"The Matrix Resurrections"
"Memoria"
"Mortal Kombat"
"Mothering Sunday"
"Nightmare Alley"
"Nine Days"
"No Time to Die"
"Official Competiton"
"Parallel Mothers"
"Passing"
"Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway"
"The Power of the Dog"
"A Quiet Place Part II"
"Red Rocket"
"Respect"
"Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings"
"Space Jam: A New Legacy"
"Spencer"
"Spider-Man: No Way Home"
"Stillwater"
"The Suicide Squad"
"Swan Song"
"The Tender Bar"
"tick, tick...BOOM!"
"Titane"
"The Tomorrow War"
"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
"The Unforgivable"
"Venom: Let There Be Carnage"
"West Side story"
"The Worst Person in the World"
"Zola"
I was killed last year sticking with the CDG's last year with "Little Women" winning the Oscar despite the lack of a Guild nomination. I've learned since then that, there's a lot of costume designers around who utterly despised Jacqueline Durran winning that Oscar and really felt like that was quite a bad job from her. (Shrugs) I'm gonna to defer to them in general; they worked for me, but y'know, yeah, I guess some people thought her choices were more questionable, after having it pointed out to me, I can see that. (I would also argue that her depiction of a somewhat anachronistic use of more modern costuming in "Little Women" better reflected Gerwig's vision of the story..., but yeah, ultimately, I do think the anti-Durran's Oscar for "Little Women" crowd, have a slightly better argument. Anyway, Durran does have a film out this year, with "Cyrano" which got in at CDGs. That could get in, I guess, but that movie doesn't seem to be picking up any traction. In that category, Period Film, the Guild picked "Cruella", "House of Gucci", which, yes, very much seem like obvious picks, "Nightmare Alley" and "West Side Story". Contemporary film went with "Don't Look Up", "In the Heights", "No Time to Die" and "Zola", all good nominees but I don't think any of them are really in competition for nomination, except for the fifth nominee strangely enough, "Coming 2 America". Ruth E. Carter, and yeah, Eddie Murphy movies,- usually they have a way to sneaking into makeup, but they also have a history of sneaking into Costume. Sci-Fi/Fantasy nominees, went to six films, and they included "Dune", "The Green Knight", "Shang-Chi...", "Spider-Man..." and "The Suicide Squad". "Dune" seems to be the most obvious one here, and "The Green Knight", I think could sneak in as well. The one big name that's missing from the Guild, but ranks high on GD is "Spencer", and wouldn't you know, that's a Jacqueline Durran film. "Spencer" and "Cyrano" are 6th and 7th in the voting. I gotta think that if one of them gets in, it's probably "Spencer", it would likely have to knock out "Nightmare Alley" or "West Side Story". Eh, if the Critics and BAFTA can ignore her as well, then I think the Academy can. Look out for "The French Dispatch..." for spoiler though.
COSTUME DESIGN (PREDICTIONS)
Cruella-Jenny Beavan
Dune-Jacqueline West & Robert Morgan
House of Gucci-Mitchell Travers
Nightmare Alley-Luis Sequeria
West Side Story-Paul Tazewell
FILM EDITING (possibles, longlist)
"Annette"
"Ascension"
"Before the Ricardos"
"Belfast"
"Black Widow"
"Blue Bayou"
"Bruised"
"C'mon C'mon"
"The Card Counter"
"CODA"
"Cruella"
"Cyrano"
"Dear Evan Hansen"
"Don't Look Up"
"Drive My Car"
"The Dry"
"Dune"
"Electrical Life of Louis Wain"
"Encanto"
"Encounter"
"Eternals"
"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
"Finch"
"The First Wave"
"Flee"
"The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
"The Forgiven"
"Ghostbusters: Afterlife"
"The Green Knight"
"The Hand of God"
"The Harder They Fall"
"A Hero"
"Homeroom"
"The Humans"
"In the Heights"
"Jockey"
"A Journal for Jordan"
"The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain"
"King Richard"
"The Last Duel"
"Last Night in Soho"
"Licorice Pizza"
"Luca"
"The Many Saints of Newark"
"Mass"
"The Matrix Resurrections"
"Memoria"
"The Mitchells vs. the Machines"
"Mothering Sunday"
"Nine Days"
"No Time to Die"
"The Novice"
"The Nowhere Inn"
"Official Competition"
"Parallel Mothers"
"Passing"
"Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway"
"The Power of the Dog"
"Procession"
"A Quiet Place Part II"
"Raya and the Last Dragon"
"The Real Charlie Chaplin"
"Red Rocket"
"The Rescue"
"Respect"
"Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings"
"Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)"
"Spencer"
"Spider-Man: No Way Home"
"Stillwater"
"Swan Song"
"The Tender Bar"
"tick, tick...BOOM!"
"Titane"
"Val"
"The Velvet Underground"
"West Side Story"
"The Worst Person in the World"
"Zola"
A nomination for Editing is the single biggest correlation to a potential Best Picture win, outside of Director, so everybody pays attention to this category. It's certainly the most accurate barometer for the last 40 years with only "Ordinary People" and "Birdman..." managing to win Best Picture without an Editing nod. The first thing I'm looking for with the Eddies are the BP films that are in, and yeah, there's a bunch. No, the second thing you look for, are action movies, particularly action movies, that heavily involve chases. Any editor worth their grain of salt will tell you that chase scenes are the hardest things to edit. There is a second thing that's hard to edit, and that's music, and there is one noticeable film missing from the Eddies. "West Side Story" missed and the editors instead went with "tick, tick...BOOM!" in the comedy category. Now, Spielberg is the one director who could overcome an Eddie snub in editing, especially with his editor Michael Kahn, being, literally one of the guys who wrote the book on editing. (It was him, and another editor that worked for Spielberg, Walter Murch.) Gold Derby knows this, "West Side Story" is still in their top 5, along with "Dune," "Belfast", "The Power of the Dog" and "Licorice Pizza". There's some spoilers out there though, "Don't Look Up" is a comedy and editors know that comedies are, maybe the hardest thing to edit, and I gotta imagine there's a lot of editing in that. But-eh, there was something else nominated at the Eddies. Remember what I said about action and chase scenes....
BEST FILM EDITING (PREDICTIONS)
Dune-Joe Walker
Licorice Pizza-Andy Jurgensen
No Time to Die-Tom Cross, Elliot Graham
The Power of the Dog-Peter Sciberras
West Side Story-Sarah Broshar, Michael Kahn
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (shortlist)
"Coming 2 America'
"Cruella"
"Cruella"
"Cyrano"
"Dune"
"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
"House of Gucci"
"Nightmare Alley"
"No Time to Die"
"The Suicide Squad"
"West Side Story"
I'm a little more trusting the Makeup Guild then I have been in the past since they extended the category to five nominees, but there's still some possibility of this category going completely off the rails. "Cyrano" and "Nightmare Alley" got nothing from the MUAHs while, but "Cyrano" showed up at the BAFTAs and "Nightmare Alley" at the Critics Choice. Still, the Guild is key and "Coming 2 America", "The Eyes of Tammy Faye", "House of Gucci", and "The Suicide Squad" got three nominations each, and those are hard to knock out. And Eddie Murphy comedy is right the alley of the Makeup people, and "Suicide Squad" won the category a couple years ago, and yeah, Tammy Faye in a makeup competition, yeah, that's getting in and "House of Gucci" has, Gucci and stars Lady Gaga. It probably has a safer shot at costumes, for the moment, I'm assuming it's in. What's the last spot? Well, "West Side Story" only got in for Hair, so I think that's a bad sign. "Dune" was the fifth nominee at HUAHs for the Prosthetics category, with the aforementioned four with three nominations, so that makes sense. "Cruella" got two, but it's stronger in costumes. "No Time to Die" is the most contemporary one here. "Cyrano", is a "Cyrano de Bergerac" story, without a prosthetic nose, so that's not getting in. "Nightmare Alley" is Guillermo Del Toro's film, but it's not like it's a "Hellboy" or anything, so...- ehhh. I'm tempted, but I'm sticking with the Guild here, and when all else is equal, go with the most makeup and go with science-fiction.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (PREDICTIONS)
Coming 2 America
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The Suicide Squad
ORIGINAL SCORE
"Being the Ricardos"
"Candyman"
"Don't Look Up"
"Dune"
"Encanto"
"The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
"The Green Knight"
"The Harder They Fall"
"King Richard"
"The Last Duel"
"No Time to Die"
"Parallel Mothers"
"The Power of the Dog"
"Raya and the Last Dragon"
"Spencer"
"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
This is a category where the Guild is so young and new when it comes to being an Oscar prognosticator that I don't exactly suspect they're the most accurate, but they're definitely a good place to start. The SCL's have ten nominations for Outstanding Score, and eight of their nominees are here, "Don't Look Up", "Dune", "Encanto", "The French Dispatch..." and "The Power of the Dog" got in for a Studio Film, while "The Green Knight", "Parallel Mothers" and "Spencer" got in for independent films. This puts Jonny Greenwood in the interesting position of possibly being nominated twice, for "The Power of the Dog" and "Spencer" and that's probably likely, one and often both have popped up regularly at most critics and awards that offer a Best Score category. The one that's kinda throwing me is "Encanto". Score is a good place for an animated film to get a secondary nomination somewhere, and the music is definitely becoming the signature part of the movie. However, the song from the movie that's shortlisted is so I can see the nomination in Score as much as a consolation prize since, I suspect the Song award will ultimately go to something else.... Looking off-the-board, "The Harder They Fall" is the non-guild shortlisted titles that's popped up most everywhere else. I also can see Alberto Iglesias getting in for "Parallel Mothers"; that's be a little weird though. Not counting "Minari", "Babel" or "The Passion of the Christ", the last time a foreign language feature got nominated here was...- holy hell, 2000! Longer then I thought, that's when "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" won and "Malena" got nominated. That's weird, in the '90s, foreign language films were nominated and won all the time in the category; I don't know why that shifted so drastically.... (Shrugs) I'm wondering if I keep "Encanto" does Greenwood only get the one, and "Spencer" gets kicked out? "Spencer" has underperformed all along here; this is the only Guild Award it got in for.... It might miss everything here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (PREDICTIONS)
Don't Look Up-Nicholas Britell
Dune-Hans Zimmer
Encanto-Germaine Franco
The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun-Alexandre Desplat
The Power of the Dog-Jonny Greenwood
ORIGINAL SONG (shortlist)
"So May We Start?"-"Annette"
"Down to Joy"-"Belfast"
"Right Where I Belong"-"Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road"
"Automatic Woman"-"Bruised"
"Dream Girl"-"Cinderella"
"Beyond the Shore"-"CODA"
"The Anonymous Ones"-"Dear Evan Hansen"
"Just Look Up"-"Don't Look Up"
"Dos Oruguitas"-"Encanto"
"Somehow You Do"-"Four Good Days"
"Guns Go Bang"-"The Harder They Fall"
"Be Alive"-"King Richard"
"No Time to Die"-"No Time to Die"
"Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)"-"Respect"
"Your Song Saved My Life"-"Sing 2"
Okay, I've gotten through all of the songs, and for the most part, this is a really good shortlist. I wish they didn't do a shortlist for this category (Or, at least, release the longlist, anyway, Academy!?!?!?!") Anyway, no, this is mostly a good batch, and I get why this is a difficult category this year. I mean, I never ever heard of this new "Cinderella" film, but "Dream Girl", is a great song for a "Cinderella" movie. And sung by Idina Menzel! Good, lord! That's not even really in the discussion. There's interesting dilemmas here though. The "Encanto" song that's eligible, is not "We Don't Talk About Bruno", but a Spanish-language song called "Dos Oruguitas", and it's a good song that will get nominated, but, eh, I think the fact that it's arguably not the best song in the movie is gonna hurt it. The two big disappointments for me that I could see get nominated are "Here I Am..." from "Respect," which is written by Carole King among others, and it's sung well, but it's not a great song. Compared to Billie Eilish's "No Time to Die", which is also a song that's very much about the story of the movie it's in, it really lacks. Also, U2's song from "Sing 2", is just, awful! Man, I love U2, and I do want them to win an Oscar eventually; they've lost twice before with really good songs, but holy god, at least the version I listened to sounded terrible and it's just a really uninteresting and lazy song; I don't want to say that it's basically just a far weaker version of Elton John's "Someone Saved My Life Tonight", it's not that technically, there are real nuanced differences, despite the words seeming similar in their titles, and they sound a little alike, but yeah, I couldn't not think that in the moment. I guess it wasn't awful, but when a Van Morrison and Brian Wilson song can't make the cut, I'm grading on an extreme curb. Even the Beyonce song from "King Richard" is one of my favorites from hers, and, hell, Jay-Z's song from "The Harder They Fall" might've been my favorite of the group. It's nice to see this category so competive.
ORIGINAL SONG (PREDICTIONS)
"Just Look Up"-Don't Look Up
"Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto
"Guns Go Bang"-The Harder They Fall
"Be Alive"-King Richard
"No Time to Die"-No Time to Die
PRODUCTION DESIGN (possibles, longlist)
"Annette"
"Being the Ricardos"
"Belle"
"Belfast"
"Candyman"
"Cruella"
"Cyrano"
"Don't Look Up"
"Dune"
"Encanto"
"The French Dispatch for the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun"
"Ghostbusters: Afterlife"
"The Green Knight"
"The Hand of God"
"The Harder They Fall"
"House of Gucci"
"In the Heights"
"The King's Man"
"The Last Duel"
"Last Night in Soho"
"Licorice Pizza"
"The Lost Daughter"
"Luca"
"The Matrix Resurrections"
"The Mitchells vs. the Machines"
"Mortal Kombat"
"Nightmare Alley"
"No Time to Die"
"Passing"
"Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway"
"The Power of the Dog"
"Raya and the Last Dragon"
"Ron's Gone Wrong"
"Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings"
"Spider-Man: No Way Home"
"tick, tick...BOOM!"
"The Tragedy of Macbeth"
"Sing 2"
"Spencer"
"Vivo"
"West Side Story"
I keep forgetting that we have two Guild for this category, the ADG, Art Directors, and the SDG, the Set Decorators. The latter is newer. It also leads to difference because the ADG separate more by a movie's setting, while the SDG separates by genre. The films that got nominated by both are "The French Dispatch...", "Licorice Pizza", "Nightmare Alley", "The Tragedy of MacBeth", "West Side Story", "Cruella", "Dune", "Don't Look Up", "The Lost Daughter" and "No Time to Die". "Cruella" and "Dune" were in the Fantasy category at ADG, and I suspect one of them at least gets in, and probably "Dune". "Don't Look Up", "The Lost Daughter' and "No Time to Die" were up in Contemporary Film, so, I don't think they're in the mix, although "Don't Look Up" or "No Time to Die" wouldn't surprise me. What period film is out though? (Scratches head shrugs) Honestly, I think I would prefer to put the five period films in, the production design wasn't something I liked from "Dune", but... (Sigh) I think the voters are gonna presume that "Licorice Pizza" might've been the easiest of them to replicate, even though I don't think that, but....-
PRODUCTION DESIGN (PREDICTIONS)
Dune
The French Dispatch for the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
SOUND (shortlist)
"Belfast"
"Dune"
"Last Night in Soho"
"The Matrix Resurrections"
"No Time to Die"
"No Time to Die"
"The Power of the Dog"
"A Quiet Place Part II"
"Spider-Man: No Way Home"
"tick, tick...BOOM!"
"tick, tick...BOOM!"
"West Side Story"
The re-combining of the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories has made this a very difficult category to predict. Going by the Guilds, "Dune", looks like the only sure thing. CAS, the Sound Mixers also nominated, "No Time to Die", "The Power of the Dog", "Spider-Man..." and "West Side Story", which is what makes this category, difficult. Musicals. "West Side Story" along with "tick, tick...BOOM!" are wild cards compared to the rest of the shortlist which are either action films, and/or just potential BP winners. The rest of the nominees got, at least something from the Golden Reels, with "Dune", "The Matrix Resurrections" and "A Quiet Place Part II", being the only films that showed up in each of their three main feature categories. "The Matrix" missed BAFTA, but I'm gonna assume they're in anyway. Gotta figure "West Side Story" gets in, as it's shown up more often in more categories across most of the major awards. The last spot I think is between "No Time to Die" and "Last Night in Soho", both got into BAFTA, but "No Time to Die" got more Guilds. It's an Edgar Wright, and it's also music-heavy; I could see it spoil a la "Baby Driver"'s nominations in these categories a few years ago. Kinda hard to go against a James Bond though.
SOUND (PREDICTIONS)
Dune
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
A Quiet Place Part II
West Side Story
VISUAL EFFECTS (shortlist)
"Black Widow"
"Dune"
"Eternals"
"Free Guy"
"Ghostbusters: Afterlife"
"Godzilla vs. Kong"
"The Matrix Resurrections"
"No Time to Die"
"Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings"
"Spider-Man: No Way Home"
Well, I'd be tempted to throw out "Free Guy" and "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" right away, since they didn't get anything from the VES Awards, but "1917" won the Oscar two years ago, and it barely got a mention from them as well. Also both have been sneaking into Visual Effects awards at other shows; both of them getting into BAFTA has gotten me a bit nervous. Neither seem to be particularly beloved though. This is easily where "Spider-Man..." and "Shang-Chi..." will show up, both did very well behind "Dune" who, is pretty much running away with the VESs and the Oscar. It's tricky, 'cause for their main category, the Guild had six nominees instead of five, "The Matrix Resurrections", "No Time to Die" and "Godzilla vs. Kong". None of their second-tier category, "Supporting Visual Effects" are on the shortlist, so unless something weird happens, it's pretty much, trying to pick the right 5 out of the 6 here.
VISUAL EFFECTS (PREDICTIONS)
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Seven Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home"
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
"Affairs of the Art"
"Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman's Apprentice"
"Bad Seeds"
"Bestia"
"Boxballet"
"Flowing Home"
"Mum Is Pouring Rain"
"The Musician"
"Namoo"
"Only a Child"
"Robin Robin"
"Souvenir Souvenir"
"Step into the River"
"Us Again"
"The Windshield Wiper"
I got around to watching ten of these shorts, my favorite of the bunch was "The Windshield Wiper" which is up there high in the Gold Derby rankings, but I'm not sure it's getting in. I can see some people ranting on it for just being a bunch of images as opposed to a story. I didn't see "Affair of the Art", but that one got into BAFTA, and I generally think if something gets in there, then it'll probably get in here. After that, I think "Us Again" and "Robin Robin" are easy ins. One's Disney/Pixar, the other's on Netflix, and it's a 1/2 hour epic one with music and lots of animation. That's not always a guarantee in, but if there is something's that fairly elaborate, like a "Peter and the Wolf" from '06, which was a 1/2 hour long, you can usually expect that to get in if it's even remotely entertaining. "Only a Child" has me worried, 'cause while I like it a little better then it, it reminded me a lot of "Love, Basketball", which- sorry Kobe fans, I hated, but I can see that getting in. The animation is a bit lacking though. The morbid part of me wants to see "Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman's Apprentice" get in, just to have to see whoever's announcing the nominees this year have to try to pronounce it. Who is it announcing them anyway?
(Google search)
Tracee Ellis Ross and Leslie Jordan? Well, Ross has done it before, and I'm- not entirely sure why Leslie Jordan is suddenly everywhere lately, but okay. The academy's just had weird decision with this lately; I wish they'd just go back to waking up past nominees/winners and bring back the multiple TV behind them. It looked and felt so much more official. Oh, right, I gotta make some predictions here....
ANIMATED SHORT FILM (PREDICTIONS)
Affair of the Art
The Musician
Robin Robin
Step Into the River
Us Again
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
"Ala Kachuu - Take and Run"
"Censor of Dreams"
"The Criminals"
"Distances"
"The Dress"
"Frimas"
"Les Grandes Claques"
"The Long Goodbye"
"On My Mind"
"Please Hold"
"Stenofonen"
"Tala'vision"
"Under the Heavens"
"When the Sun Sets"
"You're Dead Helen"
I watched more of these then I thought I would, but that doesn't necessarily help me. "The Long Goodbye" is Riz Ahmed's short film, and it's pretty powerful, even if it's simplistic in it's Chaplinesque directness. Of the ones I liked the most that I saw, I enjoyed "Stenofonen" and "The Dress", despite the rough ending of that one. I saw the trailers for the rest and just based on those, "You're Dead, Helen" and "Frimas" seem like safer bets for me then some of the favorites, "You're Dead, Helen"'s the fun one, "Frimas" will have the emotional pull. "Tala'Vision" has the time period, and the issue with Syria on it, "The Long Goodbye" has the Hollywood backing, and that last one, I'm debating between "When the Sun Sets", the GD co-favorite and "Ala Kachuu...". Basically, it's Apartheid, vs. forced marriage, which tradition is/was worst? "When the Sun Sets" has an Academy Student Oscar scholarship winner attached as director, but I don't know if that always tips the scale. Eh, there's not a bad one in this bunch either, so...., let's take a chance.
LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM (PREDICTIONS)
Ala Kachuu-Take and Run
Frimas
The Long Goodbye
Tala'Vision
You're Dead, Helen
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
"Aguilas"
"Audible"
"A Broken House"
"Camp Confidential: America's Secret Nazis"
"Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker"
"Day of Rage"
"The Facility"
"Lead Me Home"
"Lynching Postcards: Token of a Great Day"
"The Queen of Basketball"
"Sophie & the Baron"
"Takeover"
"Terror Contagion"
"Three Songs for Benazir"
"When We Were Bullies"
I managed to watch all but two of these, "Sophie and the Baron" and "When We Were Bullies". Both of them have shots at getting in, "Sophie..." has Courtney Cox's name attached as a producer believe it or not, and "When We Were Bullies",- well, I can easily see that getting in by the trailer. The Nazi entry is "Camp Confidential..." this year, and that's actually an odd one. Most of these are the New York Times vs. Netflix, and surprisingly enough, vs. Paramount Plus, which has three titles here. The best of the NYT is "Day of Rage" to me, which is also about the Insurrection, so it's timely, but "The Queen of Basketball" is a wonderfully fun little biodoc, that I'm sure will get votes. "Terror Contagion" is by Laura Poitras, the great documentarian behind "CitizenFour", so there's a decent shot she could get in by recognition. Paramount Plus's best entry, in my mind, is "Lynching Postcards..." but Gold Derby has "Coded..." in a higher position. I liked both of those a lot; but I think this is a NYT vs. Netflix matchup. I don't buy most of the favorites on this one, and since I've seen most of them, I'm going with my gut and take one from Netflix, one I didn't see, and the rest are the best from the Times.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT (PREDICTIONS)
Day of Rage
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Takeover
When We Were Bullies
Well, there we go folks, my Oscar predictions. And I only missed my deadline by six hours, and barely got it in before all these prognostications gets laughed at for being so incredibly wrong.
Happy Oscar Nomination Day Everyone! I'll be back analyzing what did get nominated sooner then later, I promise.
Oh, and here, for no reason in particular, Scott Hamilton skating to Aerosmith. Enjoy.
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