Thursday, March 25, 2021

MY ANNUAL OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANALYSES! (Yeah, I know I'm a week late, been busy, been digesting.

Since I took so long to put out my Oscar nomination predictions, I decided to take my time this time around before I dove into analyzing the nominees themselves. That, and I've just been busy working on other things, but yeah, it's time for me to get a closer look at what got in, and get some early thoughts in there about the nominees, even if those early thoughts are later then everyone else. If there's ever a year to do that, it's this year. 2020 is going down as one of the worst and strangest years ever, in general and probably the most transformative in almost all aspects of the performing arts world, ever. Broadway as of right now, music, well, is generally considered a high point since it's led to some creativity in both the artists and the distribution of it, and movies,- well, those debates a couple years ago about whether a movie streaming on Netflix should be eligible for Oscars sound particularly obtuse today. To my ear, they sound the way people in the '90s thought Bill Clinton's affair with Monica Lewinsky was an impeachable Presidential offense after 9/11 happened, like boy, was that a whole bunch of nothing that didn't matter, and I was on the side that said, "No, they shouldn't!" but who gives a damn now. I don't know which of these temporary changes to the standard Academy's eligibility procedure will be permanent and which won't but the precedent's been set, and this year created a strange and yet, interesting collection of nominees that managed to be, from what I can tell so far, mostly good, and just somehow managed to show up and squeak into eligibility contention, and good for them. Whether it be studio tentpole blockbuster having to be pushed onto some newfangle it streaming service or some unusual avant-garde artists who manage to work their way through conniving and creative means to manage to get a film made this and distributed this year, this year's group of films is one of the most intriguing in years. Let's run down what the Academy decided to honor and see if my Oscar nomination predictions are any better then my NCAA bracket this year. (SPOILER: Actually, my bracket's doing fairly good so far this year, so probably not.)  

(NOTE: Star denotes correct prediction)

1/2*The Father-Pro.: David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Phillippe Carcassone
*Judas and the Black Messiah-Pro: Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler
Mank-Cean Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski
*Minari-Pro.: Christina Oh
*Nomadland-Pro.: Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Jarvey and Chloe Zhao
*Promising Young Woman-Pro.: Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara
Sound of Metal-Pro.: Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche
*The Trial of the Chicago 7-Marc Platt and Stuart Besser

In my defense on "Sound of Metal", I would've had it eleventh in predictions. I'm actually shocked how that one Amazon film caught on late; I was sure that "One Night in Miami" was gonna be the one that touched audiences more. "Mank" ended with the most nominations, ten total, including Best Picture and Director, which is kinda interesting, since no other film got more then six nominations, and yet, I don't think anyone's really predicting it to win. Hell, I predicted it to get snubbed, although granted, I think I did that with "Green Book" as well, but still, that only got like six nominations, which is about what the rest of the frontrunners got this year. Right now, to me, "Nomadland" is the favorite, with "Minari" and "The Trial of the Chicago 7" playing potential spoilers, with perhaps "Judas and the Black Messiah coming up late. Personally, I find it so fascinating that something as un-Hollywood and so neorealist as "Nomadland" is such a heavy favorite right now. I guess after "Parasite" breaking the foreign film barrier, anything's possible, but this still seems odd and bizarre to me.

*Lee Isaac Chung-"Minari"
*Emerald Fennell-"Promising Young Woman"
David Fincher-"Mank"
Thomas Vinterberg-"Another Round"
*Chloe Zhao-"Nomadland"

Again, I fell into the "One Night in Miami" wrong path for this category, as apparently the Academy has only room for two women directors this year, which, is technically an improvement. Personally, I think I could've filled this category with female directors this year, but this is still a good batch. Thomas Vinterberg enters the weird category of being one of the few directors since the Academy expanded it's Best Picture category beyond five films to get a Best Director nomination but for a film that's not nominated for Best Picture, it's him Pawel Pawlikowska for "Cold War" and Bennett Miller for "Foxcatcher" that have so far managed to pull that off. (Perhaps we should disregard the myth that the Best Directing nominees are generally the go-to five frontrunners for Picture from now on honestly; I think that idea feels less accurate every year). I should really start remembed that the Director's Branch doesn't reall care that much about any other Academy trends as they will generally go with whoever the hell they feel like over such names as Regina King or Aaron Sorkin among others, but eh, whatchagonnado? Fincher getting in, I probably should've predicted since Fincher's directing is probably the best thing about that film, which another interesting oddity, along with "Another Round", one of two films up for Best Director that didn't get a Writing nomination. My instinct told me that was an anomoly, but it's happened as recently as 2017 with "Dunkirk" and "Phantom Thread" getting Directing but not writing, and in 2015 with "Mad Max: Fury Road" and "The Revenant". Anyway, this is Chloe Zhao's to lose at the moment and I don't really see a scenario where anyone else could win offhand.

*Riz Ahmed-"Sound of Metal"
*Chadwick Boseman-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
*Anthony Hopkins-"The Father"
Gary Oldman-"Mank"
*Steven Yeun-"Minari"

I really should've trusted Gold Derby on these; they had the acting categories nailed this year, with only one nominee getting in across all four categories that wasn't in their Top 5 predictions, and we'll get to that one. I took a shot on Delroy Lindo getting in over Gary Oldman (Man, the Academy did not like "Da 5 Bloods" as much as I thought they would; I'm not sure exactly what happened there, SAG seemed to like them... [Shrugs]) Anyway, no issue with the nominees themselves; I suspect Boseman's the heavy sentimental favorite, with Hopkins and Oldman already being previously awarded. The Academy isn't particularly known historically for posthumous awards, they only have two in the acting categories historically, eh, Heath Ledger for "The Dark Knight" and Peter Finch for "Network" both in the Supporting Actor category, but I suspect the sentiment's strong enough for Boseman here with perhaps Ahmed or Yeun playing potential spoilers. I could also see them giving it to Hopkins if they really loved "The Father", which, eh, it got into Best Picture, so maybe they do, but I think they want to honor Boseman; although that makes his "Da 5 Bloods" snub a bit more confounding if that's the case.... (Also, how exactly did "Ma Rainey..." miss Best Picture too? Was there just a one black movie limit or something and "Judas..." got it over "...Bloods", "Ma Rainey..." and "One Night in Miami"? I really hope that's not what happened....)

*Viola Davis-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
*Andra Day-"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"
*Vanessa Kirby-"Pieces of a Woman"
*Frances McDormand-"Nomadland"
*Carey Mulligan-"Promising Young Woman"

Well, this category I did well in, but this is an interesting race. We got two first timers in Day and Kirby, both are their film's only nominations though. It's not impossible to win this category as your film's only nomination, but it's rare; only twice this century with Julianne Moore for "Still Alice," who was way overdue to win, and Charlize Theron with "Monster" which was just one of those performances that blew everybody's mind. The blow-your-mind performance this year seems to be Carey Mulligan's but I'm not entirely sure that means she's gonna win. Viola Davis and especially Frances McDormand I think can play spoilers. McDormand in particular; they gave her a 2nd Oscar just a couple years ago for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", and it's a little unusual to think she could win a third Best Actress Oscar; I mean, even Meryl and Ingrid have one Oscar in Supporting, and I think only Katharine Hepburn has four in this category, but McDormand could win her third here. She's always been one of my favorite actresses, but that would be stunning. She's definitely the second choice being in basically every scene in the Best Picture frontrunner, and probably the choice for those who might find "Promising Young Woman" a little much to take in....

*Sacha Baron Cohen-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"
*Daniel Kaluuya-"Judas and the Black Messiah"
*Leslie Odom, Jr.-"One Night in Miami..."
*Paul Raci-"Sound of Metal"
LaKeith Stanfield-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

Okay, this is where the Academy just went completely off the rails here. Now, I did predict "Judas and the Black Messiah" overperforming here, but getting two nominations in Supporting Actor came so far out of nowhere that Gold Derby, literally did not have LaKeith Stanfield listed among their choices. In fact, going back to my previous predictions blog, I didn't list him on my longlist of potential nominees. I did list him though, as a potential for Best Actor, not for Supporting Actor. See, he campaigned for Lead Actor for the film, while his co-star Kaluuya, campaigned for Supporting Actor, however the Academy rules don't have any restrictions on where an actor can be nominated. So if a performance gets nominations in both Lead and Supporting, then whichever category the performance gets the most nominations in, that's the category the performance goes into automatically. So, apparently, Academy voters felt Lakeith Stanfield was a Supporting Actor for the film, "Judas and the Black Messiah", which is weird since, apparently, nobody else thought that! Granted, the only other nomination that LaKeith Stanfield got for this movie, was from the Black Reel Awards, but they had him listed in Lead. Arguably both these nominations are category fraud, hell, they're the title characters in the movie, and every description I can find of the film list them as the main two characters, now arguably one of them can be Supporting, but both?! Now, this isn't the first time this has happened, far from it actually; once upon a time this was somewhat common, but the last time it's happened was with Kate Winslet in "The Reader" back in '08, but even that one has an asterisk that the Academy wasn't the only ones who put her in Lead Actress; BAFTA had done it earlier; plus, she was trying to position herself in Supporting for "The Reader" because she was simultaneously campaigning in Lead for another film that year, "Revolutionary Road". With LaKeith Stanfield, the Academy just ignored his claim for Lead and put him in Supporting Actor. I-eh, I really don't know what to make of this. This is one where I wish we could pull the Actors Branch on and see what happened here, 'cause this is just bizarre and dare I say, unexplainable by any modern Oscar logic standards. This feels like a weird category fraud screwup from like, the late '80s or something. Anyway, as to the award, eh, I think it's clearly between Kaluuya and Odom, with the edge to Kaluuya right now, although it's been awhile since somebody won an Oscar in this category by beating their own castmate. It's been..., wow, 1980, when Timothy Hutton won for "Ordinary People" over Judd Hirsch. 

*Maria Bakalova-"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit of Once Glorious Nation of Kazahkstan"
*Glenn Close-"Hillbilly Elegy"
*Olivia Colman-"The Father"
Amanda Seyfried-"Mank"
*Yuh-Jung YOUN-"Minari"

Congratulations to Glenn Close, she becomes the third person after Amy Irving for "Yentl" and James Coco for "Only When I Laugh" to receive an Oscar nomination and a Razzie nomination for the same performance. I don't normally cover the Razzies because, well, not that they should have legitimacy being a bad movie awards show, but they really don't have much legitimacy. I haven't seen the movie, but I'm gonna go out on a limb that Glenn Close isn't the Worst at anything and that they were just being pissy to be pissy. She could win by the way, it's her eighth nomination and that would tie her with Peter O'Toole for the most nominations without a win. Actually, this is the most difficult of the acting categories to call. The awards have been splitting everywhere, and the only actress of the nominees that got a Critics Choice, a SAG and a BAFTA nomination was, strangely enough, Maria Bakalova. Honestly, to me, she's the obvious favorite to win right now but nobody wants to admit such an unbelievable comedic performance would be the favorite; the myth is that there hasn't been a comedic performance to win this role since Marisa Tomei for "My Cousin Vinny", which I don't think is true, Dianne Wiest, Mira Sorvino and Penelope Cruz all won for Woody Allen comedes and in comedic performances, and I think you could argue Octavia Spencer if you want to call "The Help" a comedy (I wouldn't, but I wouldn't call it much of anything), but that said this is up for grabs. It could be Close, it could be Yuh-Jung YOUN, this could be the best place for "Minari" to win something,... It's also nice to see Amanda Seyfried finally honored for her work; I've been a fan of hers since "Big Love", but I think she's the least likely of the group to win this.

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit the Once Glorious Nation of Kazahkstan-Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony HInes & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
*The Father-Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
*Nomadland-Chloe Zhao
*One Night in Miami...-Kemp Powers
*The White Tiger-Ramin Bahrani

I consider this a win for getting four out of five right as "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" got snubbed most everywhere. It's also nice to see Ramin Bahrani finally get some recognition. "Borat..." gets into writing for both it's original film and it's sequel, that's a pretty rare feat.  "Lord of the Rings" got in for two of their films, the first two "The Godfather" films did it and the last two of the "Before Trilogy" have pulled this off before. It also won this category recently at the WGAs, which is a bit mindblowing. I hope they don't all show up to collect their Oscars though, 'cause 'yeesh, that's a long speech. This is why Mike Leigh takes full credit for his improvised scripts. 

*Judas and the Black Messiah-Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
*Minari-Lee Isaac Chung
*Promising Young Woman-Emerald Fennell
*Sound of Metal-Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
*The Trial of the Chicago 7-Aaron Sorkin

Well, called this one. "Promising Young Woman" just won the WGA Award here, and all five nominees in the category are Best Picture nominees, which is the first time that's ever happened in the category. That's unusual. "Promising Young Woman" is the current favorite having won WGA, although "Minari" wasn't eligible, so that can play spoiler. 

*Onward-Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
Over the Moon-Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
*A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon-Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley
*Soul-Pete Doctor and Dana Murray
*Wolfwalkers-Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stephan Roelants

I took a shot on "The Willoughbys" being a Netflix entrant over "Over the Moon", but yeah, other then that, nothing unexpected here for me, although I suspect most underestimated "Shaun the Sheep..." again; I'm not sure why, it's Aardman Animation, we know the Academy loves them. (Shrugs) Anyway, eh, unless something odds happens, "Soul" seems the heavy favorite.

Collective-Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
Crip Camp-Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
The Mole Agent-Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibanez
*My Octopus Teacher-Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
Time-Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

Wow did I screw this category up. "Collective" and "The Mole Agent" were both eligible for Best Foreign Language International Feature; I gotta stop thinking that's not a foreshadower, 'cause apparently that is now. (I also hadn't seen "Collective" until after my predictions, yeah, they probably would've changed had I seen that.) Anyway, I don't really know what the favorite is here; the only one I'm fairly certain isn't in the running is "The Mole Agent" since that missed the International Feature nominations. 

*Another Round (Denmark)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
*Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Honestly, it's a bit surreal that the first Romanian film to get nominated in this category is a documentary. All the great Romanian New Wave films they haven't nominated over the years, many of which didn't even make the shortlists and this, admittedly great documentary gets in finally? Feels wrong. Tunisia getting it's first ever nomination is interesting although. I thought about putting that in there, but it just hadn't shown up too many other places. This category is a lot harder to predict since they expanded the shortlist. I expect "Another Round" to win giving Denmark their 4th Oscar and the first for any of the Dogme 95 directors. 

Judas and the Black Messiah-Sean Bobbitt
*Mank-Eric Messerschmidt
*News of the World-Dariusz Wolski
*Nomadland-Joshua James Richards
*The Trial of the Chicago 7-Phedon Papamichael

"Judas..." really overperforming, taking out "Tenet" most likely in this category, which dramatically underperformed here. I don't know if there's an obvious favorite here this time around so far; I would guess "Nomadland" as the early favorite, but I can make an argument for all of these nominees right now.

*Emma-Alexandra Byrne
*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-Ann Roth
*Mank-Trish Summerville
Mulan-Bina Daigeler
Pinocchio-Massimo Cantini Parrini

Interesting list here, "Mulan" and "Pinocchio" round up the surprise Disney group of nominees for the category; I didn't even know they made a live-action "Pinocchio" this year. I'm kidding of course, this is another Italian retelling. It's kinda weird for me to think about, being of Italian descent myself, but that really is kinda our one big fairy tale that we've put out to the world; I really don't know what that says about us to be honest. Anyway, um, I'm not sure about this one yet, although I think "Emma" is in the soft lead at the moment; I'm gonna wait to see what the Guilds and BAFTA do.

The Father-Yorgos Lamprinos
*Nomadland-Chloe Zhao
*Promising Young Woman-Frederic Thoraval
*Sound of Metal-Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
*The Trial of the Chicago 7-Alan Baumgarten

This was one of the few categories I had "Mank" predicted in where it didn't get nominated. (Which is weird, 'cause I thought the editing kinda held that film together.) I didn't get going with "The Father" instead, but once I thought about it, it made sense to me, there's a lot of subtle tricky editing there. Usually I think of editing awards first with action scenes, particularly chase sequence but there's not an obvious action film here though. I kinda don't suspect "Nomadland" here, but other then that, I'll pay attention to what the Eddie Awards do here. "Sound of Metal" makes the most sense right now since it's so music and sound based, but if the Academy thinks that's more essential for the Sound category, which I tend to agree with, then "The Trial of the Chicago 7" and "Promising Young Metal" seem like the second choices.

*Emma-Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
*Hillbilly Elegy-Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson
Mank-Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
Pinocchio-Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

I knew I probably should've put "Pinocchio" in there after seeing the trailer, but I couldn't find the place for it. I didn't think they would take out "Birds of Prey..." though, that seemed like a shoe-in. Then again, this the Makeup category and history shows, they just do not give a fuck. Hell, now I'm wondering if we're underestimating "Pinocchio" in winning this thing. It seems like the most work. 

Da 5 Bloods-Terence Blanchard
*Mank-Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
*Minari-Emile Mosseri
*News of the World-James Newton Howard
*Soul-Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

Well, it's nice to see "Da 5 Bloods" got something. Nothing particularly surprising here, I suspect "Soul" is pretty obviously the winner here, but I can see this being where they might go with "Minari" as a spoiler. I'm trying to figure out where they'll win something, I think either here, Supporting Actress or maybe Writing? I've seen some say they can win Picture in the ranked voting system, I can see that honestly, but I have to see it be able to win something below-the-line and they're all in close tight races the ones they're in.

*"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga-Music & Lyrics: Savan Kotecha, Fat Maax Gsus and Rickard Goransson
"Fight for You"-Judas and the Black Messiah-Music: H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric: H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
*"Io Si (Seen)"-The Life Ahead-Music: Diane Warren; Lyric: Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
*"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami...-Music and Lyric: Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
"Hear My Voice"-The Trial of the Chicago 7-Music: Daniel Pemberton; Lyric: Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

Three out of five ain't bad here for me. Honestly, when I listened to the short list, I thought most of the songs were, eh, okay. There would been a couple I would've been like, "Oh, really, that one?" but nothing I would've been like, "Wait, that got friggin' nominated, why!? How!?!" either, so, technically an improvement, overall. For those counting, Diane Warren is on, OMG, 12TH NOMINATION!! without a win, yet! Damn! I forgot she was nominated last year too! And the year before! Shit, she's approaching Randy Newman's infamous 0 for 15 streak before he finally. She has a shot here, "Io Si (Seen)" is one fo the better songs here, although I think "Speak Now" is the heavy favorite. It's the best time to honor both "One Night in Miami..." and a chance to honor Leslie Odom, Jr. who is the likely second choice in Supporting Actor. The other spoiler could be "Husavik" which won the SCL Award, which is kinda the closest thing to a Music Composers Guild out there. Would be kinda funny if that happened. Still though, man, how does Diane Warren keep losing this; she should've won at least one by now. Like, "Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now", that's one of the great songs of the '80s, what did that lose too. (Google search) Oh, "(I've Had) the Time of My Life" and Bob Seger's "Shakedown" was nominated too that year.... (Long pause) Yeah, she still should've won that. She should've also won for that Lady Gaga song too. And that Aerosmith song, even if it was from goddamn "Armageddon". She's been nominated for six of the last seven years too, Jees!!!

The Father-Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara and Diana Stoughton
*Mank-Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
*News of the World: Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
*Tenet-Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

Again, with "The Father" which I had underestimated, but the more I thought about it, again, this does make sense, although I'm still shocked that it beat out "The Trial of the Chicago 7" of all things. Also, I guess this is where "Tenet" shows up here. I suspect "Tenet", despite all the Christopher Nolan fanboys that can't believe anybody out there woouldn't be licking his metaphorical ass 24/7, is kinda this year's "Passengers" with the Academy. Like, they know the technical stuff is good, but... well, I gotta see the movie for myself to be sure, but it's telling how little this has shown up. (Also, I apparently am an enemy of some of them, 'cause I think "Interstellar" was just his dumb version of "A Wrinkle in Time" [The book, I haven't seen the new movie version yet; don't worry I will eventually... but no, I never cared for the book to begin so,... eh, we'll see....]) Anyway, this is probably where "Mank" is the heavy favorite and despite me not loving the film, I kinda have to agree on this one, the Production Design is amazing, which is something I'm surprised more David Fincher movies don't get more acclaim over; he's always been insisting on having some amazing production design. 

*Greyhound-Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
Mank-Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Dre Kunin
*News of the World-Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
*Soul-Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
*Sound of Metal-Nicholas Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes and Philip Bladh

I am so, giving myself extra bonus points for calling "Greyhound" in this category. The one I missed was "Tenet", and, honestly I'm not terribly sure why "Mank" got in, unless they just wanted to give Ren Klyce another nomination; he's up to nine now including these two, but he's yet to win. I think "Soul" could play spoiler here, but this seems the most likely spot for "Sound of Metal" to win something, and with it getting into Best Picture, it almost seems like a shoe-in for them at the moment. Also, I hate that they shoved the two sound categories together; I know nobody knows the exact difference, even I get them confused sometimes, but they are two different skills....

Love and Monsters-Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
*The Midnight Sky-Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
*Mulan-Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
The One and Only Ivan-Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
*Tenet-Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

Dammit, I knew I should've put "The One and Only Ivan" in there; I just played it safe. Boy , the Oscars did not like the superhero movies this year. Anyway, I think this is where "Tenet" will finally win something, that and "Mulan" are probably the closest to seeming like Best Picture nominees in the categories, which is usually the best sign. 

*Burrow-Madeline Sharfian and Michael Capbarat
Genius Loci-Adrien Merigeau and Amaury Ovise
*If Anything Happens I Love You-Will McCormack and Michael Govier
Opera-Erick Oh
Yes-People-Gisli Darri Halldorsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

Well, two of the ones I saw got nominated. I had a suspicion about the other three, but still I'm surprised that "The Snail and the Whale" with all the big people behind that one got left out. Eh, I suspect "If Anything Happens I Love You" is a slight favorite, but god, that's a depressing short. 

Feeling Through-Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
*The Letter Room-Elvira Lind and Sofia Sandervan
*The Present-Farah Nabulsi and Ossama Bawardi
*Two Distant Strangers-Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe
White Eye-Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

I knew it was a bad idea to go with the top 5 from Gold Derby. Anyway, I did see "Feeling Through" which, I'm kinda surprised got in, but I get it. 

Colette-Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard
A Concerto is a Conversation-Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
*Do Not Split-Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
Hunger Ward-Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheueman
*A Love Song for Latasha-Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

Jesus! I saw all these and I got this category way off! Like, I didn't like "Colette" at all, but I guess it's the Holocaust quota. (Sigh) And I guess "A Concerto is a Conversation" got in for being the most delightful one, although I would've rather seen "The Speed Cubers". "Hunger Ward" is just depressing but fine. I guess this isn't a bad list, but I found it disappointing. That said, I think "A Love Song for Latasha" is the favorite at the moment; that's probably the most poignant one for the modern time, but I could see some spoilers here, most notably, "Do Not Split" and "Hunger Ward". 

Alright, now that that's finally done, time to copy and paste, so that I can prepare for my predictions in a few weeks. As to these Oscars, well, it's, it's gonna be interesting to say the least. Who knows what the show's gonna actually be. People are gonna be trying to analyze these Oscars for years, because of how unusual and the situation is, and how the movies that did come out came at odd angles and barely got released. I know, in the future, streaming's gonna become more prominent and the typical movie theaters are gonna slowly die out except for the uber-tentpole blockbusters and will cost twice the price they do now, and whoever survives the streaming wars will inevitably own Hollywood, but this Oscars makes no sense, now. These are Oscars that we're gonna look at five years from now and see if this was just a weird anomaly year or if they become a a constant new trend. As for now, I think it would be best to hold back on full analyses of what these Oscars say or mean about the industry or the Academy until much, much later.

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