Monday, January 13, 2020

92ND ANNUAL OSCAR NOMINATIONS POSTMORTEM AND ANALYSIS! Another year, another batch of predictions gotten way wrong.

Well, I woke up early, and still late for the announcements this time around in the morning, but I caught up quickly enough. BTW, when I say "early", I mean, early in the YEAR! Why the hell are we doing this so soon, we're not even halfway through the month! I remember years when the Oscars used to be in April! They keep happening earlier and earlier and to be honest, I have no idea why anymore! Do Academy votes only get like a day or two anymore to catch up on anything they missed before they have to vote; like, you're the Oscars, what's the fucking rush! I'd be amazed if all the votes even got mailed to you in time at this rate! Okay, I'm sure you have a online voting option now, but still; I could've really used, like another week or two before we got to this and it's really starting to freak me out that they're doing this earlier and earlier now. I mean, fuck, we're not even three weeks until the OSCARS! Seriously, fuck this shit! You're the Oscars, they can all wait for you; wait 'til fucking March next time. I remember when it was shocking when the Oscars were in February, now their on the 9TH!!!! You're like the Super Bowl in reverse, STOP THIS NONSENSE, wait a bit next time. At least long enough for me to start writing the correct year down on my checks, shit!

Speaking of shit, the nominations, the announcements, not who got nominated. Look, it's better than last year, when you had Kumail Nanjani and Tracee Ellis Ross pretending like their here guest hosting Regis & Kathie Lee, but why are you guys trying so hard to change this!? Also, who the hell is clapping!? You're in an empty theater and you didn't invite the press, nobody's applauding at every nomination! I'm one of the ones who usually defends canned audience laughter, but c'mon!

Also, I'm all for diversity, but this is the second year in a row, you'd had an Asian actor and a African-American woman sit down and read the names and in Issa Rae's case; I have a hard time calling her a movie star; she's certainly never been in anything that the Academy has ever honored as far as I know. Look I know you're under a lot of pressure to appear like you're much more inclusive and diverse then you are, at that's a good thing btw, and I appreciate the effect. But I feel like you're just trying to put up your token races to show that you have them. And if you're going to do that, like, can you get people who I more immediately associate with movies? Wake up Angela Bassett, or Mo'Nique or how about Halle Berry, even! Seriously, you want to prove you're diverse, how about wake up Halle and have her read off the nominees! In fact, I want to do that! I'm officially campaigning for Halle Berry to be one of the presenters for the Oscars Nominations announcement next year. You can her with Cho or some other ethnically diverse actor who's a big movie star, Errfan Khan or The Rock maybe, and put them on a real stage, call in the Press so we can have real reactions to the nominees instead of canned laughter, maybe push the announcement to a slightly more reasonable time, like 7:30 or something, and get a giant TV screen and have them announce the nominees in front of it! I am officially campaigning for the Academy to do this next year! #WakeUpHalleBerry2021, and while we're at it, maybe we can hire a real host too! #OscarsNeedAHost!

Alright, let's go over the nominees and see how badly the Academy decided to screw up my perfect Gold Derby ballot this year. (Note: asterisks next to nominees indicate correct prediction.)

*1917-Pro.: Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall
Ford v Ferrari-Pro.: Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold
*The Irishman-Pro.: Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal and Emma Tillinger Koskoff
*Jojo Rabbit-Pro.: Carthew Neal and Taika Waititi
*Joker-Pro.: Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper and Emma Tillinger Koskoff
*Little Women-Pro.: Amy Pascal
*Marriage Story-Pro.: Noah Baumbach and David Heyman
*Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood-David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino
*Parasite-Pro.: KWAK Sin-Ae and BONG Joon Ho

I know this is gonna sound a bit like I'm saying I got this right even though I didn't, but-eh, well, all the films I did predict to get nominated, got nominated. I only thought there'd be eight nominees, but that's still not bad. I think had "Ford v Ferrari" done better at BAFTA, 'cause I had it in my predictions until then, but when they underperformed there, where I thought a film about Le Mans would have more traction, I kinda re-evaluated it after that. That's probably why I put "Knives Out" and "Bombshell" in my ninth and tenth spots. I'm kicking myself at that one, 'cause I feel like I should've had that, but...- Damn BAFTA making me second guess.

*BONG Joon-ho-"Parasite"
*Sam Mendes-"1917"
Todd Phillips-"Joker"
*Martin Scorsese-"The Irishman"
*Quentin Tarantino-"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"

I'm really shocked Todd Phillips got in here. It's actually kinda scaring me, since "Green Book" managed to win Best Picture without a Peter Farrelly nomination last year, and that was another comedy director making a serious dramatic film too. Although, I guess Adam McKay's recent shift like that never bothered me, 'cause I always thought of him as a great director to begin with, "Anchorman..." and "The Other Guys" are hilarious btw, but with Phillips...- look, I haven't seen "Joker" yet, it's probably really good, but I have never thought of Todd Phillips as a particularly strong director and to be honest, I never thought his comedy films were that great. Even "The Hangover", it's funny, but I don't actually think it's as compelling or interesting as others do and the more time has past, the worst it gets too; it's far from the great comedy of our time. Well, I'll probably like "Joker" more then "Green Book" when I do get to it, so at least there's that. I had Baumbach getting in instead. I'm actually really surprised how much "Marriage Story" has underperformed. I haven't seen the movie yet, sure, but still this is pretty shocking to me; I wonder if this is a case of a film seeming too familiar to the Acaemy awards. I mean, it's a movie about entertainment people getting divorced, it's probably something that hits a little too close to home for a lot of members of the Academy. 

Antonio Banderas-"Pain and Glory"
*Leonardo DiCaprio-"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"
*Adam Driver-"Marriage Story"
*Joaquin Phoenix-"Joker"
Jonathan Pryce-"The Two Popes"

Eh, yeah, after I posted my ballot, I started looking around at some others and I kept seeing Antonio Banderas's name, and-eh, yeah, I should've saw that coming. He's long overdue for a nomination, and it's a beloved Almodovar film..., yeah, I probably should've taken a second look at that one and recalibrated that thinking; I'm glad he finally got a nomination though, he was long overdue. I had Christian Bale in 'cause he got in at SAG, but I guess I should've paid more attention to Jonathan Pryce's nod at BAFTA. Taron Egerton getting snubbed though is really a bit surprising for me at this point; he had gotten in everywhere and especially considering how beloved they liked Rami Malek and "Bohemian Rhapsody" last year, which in hindsight still feels like their love of that film feels weird and misplaced, it seems weird that they didn't care as much for "Rocketman". So, Banderas, I'm kicking myself, but Egerton getting snubbed, that one surprises me a lot.

Cynthia Erivo-"Harriet"
*Scarlett Johansson-"Marriage Story"
Saorise Ronan-"Little Women"
*Charlize Theron-"Bombshell"
*Renee Zellweger-"Judy"

Goddammit! I knew it was a bad idea to jump on "The Farewell" train. I knew "Little Women" would underperform, and it did, but the Academy just loves Saoirse Ronan, and if there's a reason to nominate her, she's always getting in. I guess I just wanted Nyong'o in too much, but I really am shocked that Cynthia Erivo got in. Looking back, I probably shouldn't have ignored her SAG nomination, but I kinda figured since she's probably getting in for Song, which she did, that I could go elsewhere there, plus the movie itself, it only got Song and Actress, it just didn't do well anywhere else and that was across the whole award season. Oh well.

Kathy Bates-"Richard Jewell"
*Laura Dern-"Marriage Story"
*Scarlett Johansson-"Jojo Rabbit"
*Florence Pugh-"Little Women"
*Margot Robbie-"Bombshell"

Well, I know how this happened. Jennifer Lopez getting snubbbed, eh, I didn't predict it, but I should've 'cause she's always been a bit overlooked and yeah, she's not exactly overly beloved by some people in Hollywood. Also, "Hustlers" was basically only getting her if it gets anything, so it was easy to ignore. I gotta remember that in the future, if a Supporting Actor/Actress gets in everywhere, but only for that, he/she is probably a snub at Oscars. Now, why Kates Bates getting in for "Richard Jewell" of all thing? Well, while Lopez isn't beloved by the Academy, Kathy Bates has a lot of Academy pull, much more then people realize. Perhaps a little too much actually, she's pretty high up in the Board, and I've heard rumor that she was the reason the Academy left Joan Rivers off the In Memoriam that year, 'cause she hated her; that's only a rumor but yeah, she has the same kind of influence over the Academy that Lily Tomlin kinda has over the Television Academy, so I probably should've thought of that more, but again, she only got in at the Globes and I don't think anybody thought she had much of a chance at that.

Tom Hanks-"A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"
Anthony Hopkins-"The Two Popes"
*Al Pacino-"The Irishman"
*Joe Pesci-"The Irishman"
*Brad PItt-"Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood"

Well, the three we expected got in. Well, I guess the Academy couldn't stomach turning down Mr. Rogers twice, so kudos to Tom Hanks for finally getting nominated this millenium. I guess the Acting Branch just liked the "Parasite" cast as a whole and not any individual performance? I don't know; Anthony Hopkins getting in, I guess that's nice. First time he's been in since the last century, so I guess he was due and as we've learned throughout this nominations list, the Academy does indeed have a Netflix account and they like to use it. I had Willem Dafoe in here instead; I'm glad I called "The Lighthouse" for Cinematography, but yeah, I guess I was stretching trying to give it two. Boy, it's a good thing Cynthia Erivo got in, or #OscarsSoWhite would've defintiely struck again. Oh, wait, Banderas's nomination too. Wait, would you consider Spaniards to be Not White? Eh, he's speaks Spanish in his film, I guess he qualities.

*The Irishman-Steven Zaillian
*Jojo Rabbit-Taika Waititi
*Joker-Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
*Little Women-Greta Gerwig
*The Two Popes-Anthony McCarten

This was a pretty easy call, so I'm not celebrating my 5 for 5 on this one. There's always one writing category that becomes easier to predict since there's less films that can reasonably be considered nominees, so.... This'll be an interesting race though.

1917-Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
*Knives Out-Rian Johnson
*Marriage Story-Noah Baumbach
*Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood-Quentin Tarantino
*Parasite-BONG Joon Ho and HAN Jin Won

I had "The Farewell" here, again, I shouldn't have jumped on that train, but "1917" getting in here is a big sign. It also showed up in Editing, which is even a bigger sign, especially considering what got snubbed there; we'll get to that, but right now, I have "1917" in as the Best Picture favorite. It getting in here is huge. Also,  "Knives Out" get the annual award for getting only one nomination and that being in Writing, so congratulations for that prestigious honor!  Also, husband and wife Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig each got writing nominations in the same year, but in different categories and for different films. I'm not sure that's happened before or not, but that's a cool little factoid.

*How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World-Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis and Bonnie Arnold
*I Lost My Body-Jeremy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
Klaus-Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh and Marisa Roman
Missing Link-Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner and Travis Knight
*Toy Story 4-Josh Coogley, Mark Nielsen and Jonas Rivera

HOLY FUCK! This was the first time today I uttered loudly at a snub. I'll admit, I just didn't buy into "Missing Link" much at all; I just couldn't figure out a spot for it and I thought there was gonna be something  more off-the-wall that would get in instead, and I guess "I Lost My Body" and "Klaus" getting in was that off-the-wall quota, but I certainly thought "Missing Link" was more likely to get in than "Frozen II" getting snubbed! What the hell happened there; were the A.M.P.A.S. just pissed off at all the "Let It Go" their kids were singing in their home and wanted revenge?! Wow. Also, Netflix got two movies into this category; that shouldn't be overlooked.

*American Factory-Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
The Cave-Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod and Sigrid Dyekjaer
The Edge of Democracy-Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris and Tiago Pavan
*For Sama-Waad Al-Kateab and Edward Watts
Honeyland-Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska and Atanas Georgiev

And the unpredictable Documentary Branch keeps it's streak up. That said, I did see a lot of people had "The Cave" and "Honeyland" on their ballot, but "Apollo 11" getting snubbed is really weird. I guess it's partly because it's all just old footage reedited. I mean, I heard some people think it might actually sneak into the Editing category, but I guess some people don't think of that as a true documentary. That's the best guess I can come up with. Also, "Honeyland" is the first film get nominated for both Best Documentary Feature and Best International/Foreign Language Film, so congratulation to the nation of North Macedonia! We're going with North Macedonia now? Alright.

Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
*Les Miserables (France)
*Pain and Glory (Spain)
*Parasite (South Korea)

Yeah, as a rule stay away from documentaries in the Forei  (sigh) International Film category, but apparently this "Honeyland" is really a special one. Little surprised "Atlantics" didn't get in here; I thought that one was pretty sure to be in, but I guess the Academy didn't get around to that one on their Netflix account. I knew it wouldn't be "Beanpole" that got that last Eastern European holocaust film slot, but I went with "The Painted Bird" instead. I guess, I was trying to figure out which country was the more respected filmmaking country, honestly it's pretty close between Poland, Czech Republic and Russia historically, so I'm not surprised I missed that one.

*1917-Roger Deakins
*The Irishman-Rodrigo Prieto
Joker-Lawrence Sher
*The Lighthouse-Jarin Blaschke
*Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood-Robert Richardson

Okay, I guess there was a reason to leave off "Ford v Ferrari". (Shrugs) Alright, called that wrong. Still, I looked at the trailer for "Joker"; eh, maybe there's better lighting over the whole movies. Other than that, I'm happy I called "The Lighthouse" but I guess nothing really surprising here.

The Irishman-Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
*Jojo Rabbit-Mayes C. Rubeo
Joker-Mark Bridges
Little Women-Jacqueline Durran
*Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood-Arianne Phillips

So, the night before the Oscar nominations, the Critics Choice awards happened and they gave "Dolemite is My Name" their Costume Design award. I think I thought that might get in here, because Ruth E. Carter had won the year before for "Black Panther", but you know, in hindsight, she's usually been ignored by the Oscars for most of her career. I had Jacqueline Durran getting snubbed instead; I am just stupid for that. And of course, I through in "Aladdin" as my 100-1 odds shot to get in, so that one, yeah, I probably should've rethought that. I'm a little surprised "The Irishman" got in though. "Little Women" also missed the CDGs so that's why I missed that one. "Joker" makes sense but I thought that was too modern a film, and that was also snubbed by CDG. Actually, this is actually a weird list since all of the films got into Best Picture. That doesn't usually happen; the last time it did was-eh, um,... um...-, hold on has that ever happened? (Google search) No, it hasn't! Wow, no wonder I was so off; I couldn't imagine five Best Picture nominees getting in here, 'cause it never happened before, even during the years when they gave out two Costume Design Oscars, one of color and for black-and-white films.

*Ford v Ferrari-Michael McCusker
*The Irishman-Thelma Schoonmaker
*Jojo Rabbit-Tom Eagles
Joker-Jeff Groth
*Parasite-Jinmo YANG

Okay, so, no "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood" is a bad omen. I had the rest getting in, boy does this mean it's between "The Irishman" and "Joker" for Best Picture? Well, yeah, pretty much. Well, "Parasite" I guess got everything it needed, but there hasn't been a Best Picture winner without an acting nomination since-eh, I think "Slumdog Millionaire". I guess "1917" is still in, since that movie has that one take motif, which, the only movie to win Best Picture in the last forty years to win Best Picture without editing was "Birdman..." so, I guess that's the standard that keeps "1917" in this. "1917" btw, won the Critics Choice Editing award, so yeah, I guess "1917" is still in, and by that logic, I think it's still Best Picture favorite.

1917-Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole
*Bombshell-KAZU HIRO, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker
Joker-Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
*Judy-Jeremy Woodhead
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil-Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White

Goddamn Makeup Branch, you had to be weird again! Well, that's more proof that "1917" and "Joker' are head-to-head for Best Picture. Now, I gotta watch "Maleficent 2"; I didn't like the first one. That's it now, even with five nominees and an other normal-looking field of nominees you can imagine in the Makeup & Hairstyling shortlist, they will pick, guarentee, the strangest and most unusual pick. Also with "Judy" and "1917"'s nominations, more proof that the Makeup and Hairstylings Guild are absolutely useless Oscar prognosticators. Next time, I'm going by the trailers; I did that the year only I predicted "Suicide Squad" I should just stick with that.

*1917-Thomas Newman
*Joker-Hildur Godnadottir
*Little Women-Alexandre Desplat
*Marriage Story-Randy Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker-John Williams

Well, congratulations John Williams on your-eh, one, two, three, four, five, seven...- eh, 578th Oscar nomination, or whatever the hell it is. I think it's his 51st actually; he's actually really close to Walt Disney's record of 59; like he could reach it if this keeps up. Since 1967, eh, he had one stretch of six years where he didn't get nominated for anything, but other than that, it's pretty much clockwork that he'll get something, like, once every year or two, and he's been a double nominee several times; this is not an impossible goal if he keeps working. He's 87, Norman Lear's still producing TV and winning awards and he's ten years older then John. He's got two more projects lined up. I thought this as Actress would be where "Us" would show up, but I did hear some rumors that "Us" had some controversy of not being entirely original, so I guess I should've bumped it off for that. I guess I would've liked to have seen something different, but we still got a pretty good battle between the winless Thomas Newman's who tied his cousin's record for music nominations without that Hildur girl who's last name nobody can spell correctly for "Joker".

"I'm Standing With You"-Breakthrough-Music/Lyric: Diane Warren
*"Into the Unknown"-Frozen II-Music/Lyrics: Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
*"Stand Up"-Harriet-Music/Lyris: Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo
*"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again"-Rocketman-Music: Elton John; Lyric: Bernie Taupin
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away"-Toy Story 4-Music/Lyrics: Randy Newman

Okay, so we're just nominating Diane Warren no matter what she writes a song for now! Look, Academy, I know you want to write this wrong, like, legit, you've screwed her at least twice that I can think of when she should've won, and she is overdue, she's approaching both Newmans with this, her 10th nomination without a win, but you've gotta be a little more selective here; she's clearly not winning this year, why even bother?! Speaking of people who took forever to finally win this thing, I also overlooked Randy Newman in my predictions for the song from "Toy Story 4"; eh, I guess that was a cute song, and I did have it, like 7th or 8th among the shortlist; I guess I don't have any problems with the nomination, I just thought it was one of his least memorable ones. It might work better in the context of the movie. Also, are we just nominating any actress who was a songwriting credit for her film twice now?! That's the second time in a few years I've missed that; after Mary J. Blige pulled off that double-nomination pairing in a year, and I'd have to check, but I don't remember anyone pulling that off before; I don't even think Streisand did that, and now it's happened twice in what a three-year span? At least it makes more sense here, 'cause I'll be honest, as much as I love "Mudbound" I never really understood why she got the acting nomination or that, so kudos to Erivo, I guess. "Glasgow" got robbed though!

*1917-Pro.: Dennis Gassner; Set: Lee Sandales
*The Irishman-Pro.: Bob Shaw; Set: Regina Graves
*Jojo Rabbit-Pro.: Ra Vincent; Set: Nora Sopkova
*Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood-Pro.: Barbara Ling; Set: Nancy Haigh
*Parasite-Pro.: LEE Ha Jun; Set: CHO Won Woo

Huh. I actually got this category completely right! I legitimately thought I was crazy not throwing a sci-fi or fantasy film into this, but-eh, wow. Um, cool. This is an interesting category too; I'm not certain who's gonna get in this? Critics Choice went with "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood", I guess that's the favorite for now, but I can see any of these winnning.

*1917-Oliver Tarney and Rachel Tate
*Ford v Ferrari-Donald Sylvester
*Joker-Alan Robert Murray
*Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood-Wylie Stateman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker-Matthew Wood and David Acord

Interestingly, I got four right in each of the Sound categories, and I got the same four right in both; I just kept missing the last one. I had "Avengers..." here, and they went "Star Wars..."; I guess I thought since "Star Wars..." got such a negative critical reaction that "Avengers..." would've been more likely to get in here instead, but I get they just like "Star Wars" better, which, honestly I can understand. Oh, Wylie Stateman btw, this is his ninth nomination and he's yet to win. Not sure who the favorite is here actually; I imagine it's probably between the war movie and the racing movie. All five films are Best Picture nominees too. That hasn't happened, ever, either. First the Costume Designers, now the Sound Editors are just matching Best Picture? I know it's nine nominees, but stilll. (Okay, it did happen in '81 when "Raiders of the Lost Ark" won the award but back then, there was only one nominee; they didn't really give out Sound nominations back then.

*1917-Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
Ad Astra-Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
*Ford v Ferrari-Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow
*Joker-Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
*Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood-Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano

I think everybody thought that if "Ad Astra" was gonna show up anywhere that it would've been in Visual Effects; ironically it blanked there, but usurped "Rocketman" and "Avengers..." to sneak in the last spot for Sound Mixing. (Although Gary Rydstrom is a legendary sound mixer, so I probably should've caught that early.) "Rocketman" really got snubbed here, only getting Best Song. I'm trying to understand this, apparently they loved, "Bohemian Rhapsody" way more then I did, especially in these sound categories last year, meanwhile, I don't think "Rocketman"'s the greatest jukebox musical ever or anything, but I certainly found it for more compelling and interesting then "Bohemian Rhapsody" last. Sound Mixing is usually where the music film gets in, I guess they didn't like the film.

1917-Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy
*Avengers: Endgame-Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick
The Irishman-Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grable
*The Lion King-Robert Legator, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman
*Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker-Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy

Yeah, there's something weird going on here. I'm convinced now. I know I should've put "The Irishman" in; I should've look more into the technology-, I mean, there was talk about it, but VES only put them in Supporting Effects and that was it,- I guess I should've look into how revolutionary it was. Anyway, no "Alita: Battle Angel", which ran the table at VES, and yeah, we have no "Gemini Man", I guess that was me taking a shot. But still, the have "Avengers...", they "Star Wars...", basically they're nominating the obligatory, like-, the biggest movies that they, hypothetically could nominated, that might be considered the best, biggest or most important movies of the year. I mean, I'm not crazy about, movies that are probably objectively worst getting in instead, but if the special effects are better, then I don't know why they shouldn't be in instead. There should be more variety in these technical categories, in general. Maybe if they only had five Best Picture noms, in wouldn't seem so homogenous, but especially in the technical categories, most of the times, you don't just want to continuously see only the same films nominated in every category.

Dcera (Daughter)-Daria Kashcheeva
*Hair Love-Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
*Kitbull-Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
Memorable-Bruno Collet and Jean-Francois Le Corre
*Sister-Siqi Song

The three I saw ended up getting in. That could just be that they were also the best of the bunch, but I suspect availability helps. I had some inkling that "Dcera" might get in, I think I had that one sixth. Eh, "Memorable" was not memorable to me and I'm really surprised they went with "The Physics of Sorrow" instead, especially considering the uniqueness of the animation style. I guess the story in "Memorable" might be better then it reads.

*Brotherhood-Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
Nefta Football Club-Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi
*The Neighbors' Window-Marshall Curry
*Saria-Bryan Buckley
A Sister-Delphie Girard

I'm not terribly shocked I missed on "Sometimes, I Think About Dying," I knoew I should've probably picked "A Sister", but I only got a trailer of that, and I saw the whole of "Sometimes...", which I frankly probably liked the best of the bunch. I did see "Nefta Football Club", I think I had it 6th, that was a good one too, I just thought "Refugee"'s looked more impressive. The only one of the nominees that I didn't see in fact was "A Sister". I guess that could also mean that availability helps here, although both me and the Academy decided to pass on "Miller & Son". BTW, short film people, come up more interesting and unique titles! Seriously, we a short cartoon called "Sister" and a short live-action nominee called, "A Sister". As well as a film called "Daughter", a film called "Brotherhood",- like, c'mon, you're a short film already! Nobody's watching you to begin with, don't make it easier to skip over you with a generic forgettable title. You don't have to call something "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)" but come up with better than this. "Kitbull" for instance; that's a unique word that stands out and isn't obnoxiously long or painfully generic, so it can be done, you know.

In the Absence-Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-seok Kam
*Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)-Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
Life Overtakes Me-John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson
*St. Louis Superman-Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
*Walk Run Cha-Cha-Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt

I guess in terms of subject matter, "In the Absence" is probably a little more important a doc then "Fire in Paradiese" although I hate saying something like that, 'cause I'm literally comparing horrorific tragedies where several people lost their lives to one another, but I guess that's why "In the Absence" got in and I can honestly kinda respect that, believe it or not. "Life Overtakes Me" though; I guess that was good, and that tackles a distressing pattern of illness of the world, but I really thought there were better option here, especially "Stay Close" which was one of the more entertaining films on the shortlist, but even if you didn't care about the filmmaking and cared more about the content; I would've picked "The Nightcrawlers" to get in instead. I guess it makes a little sense, since there's usually one weird hospital. Glad to see some inspiring and fun ones get in though, especially "St. Louis Superman"; that could be a spoiler here. It stands out as different enough for me. Still suspect Learning to Skateboard..." might be ahead early on. Oh, also, Netflix 2 nominations here, A&E got one, MTV got one and New York Times got one here, so PBS got screwed but other then that, the quota's were met there.

Alright, we got way too little time 'til the envelopes are opened now. Let me do my count here, I got 85 correct out of 25 x 5 + 9 = eh, 134, 85/134  eh, 63%, I've done better in the past. This shortened Oscar season is already painful and there's no host to look forward to in a couple weeks. I'll be back for predictions and analysis of and for the show itself. 

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