Tuesday, January 22, 2019

THE 91TH OSCARS NOMINATION ANALYSIS! Nomination craziness and we still don't have a G**damn host!

As I peel the sand from my eyes, and scrape the imprints of letter keys off my forehead, I remember that the Oscar nominations got announced this morning. Alright, as I'm stretching out what's left of my neck and spine, I'll be watching the announcements blind and then, once my cup of iced coffee becomes less imaginary, as always, we'll go through each of nominees, including how many, or how few of my predictions came true.

(Slight chuckle) You know, if be really funny if I slept through everything and just absolutely nailed this and didn't it yet? (Fingers crossed, sly smile)

Yeah, I'm certain that didn't happen, but I wanted to say it out loud just in case. You never know? I remember watching the second Miracle at the Meadowlands game and saying out loud, "...I mean, I guess DeSean could run the punt back for a TD, but what are the odds of that happening?" (Shrugs)

Alright, enough stalling.


Why-, why are you making this so goddamn hard? Get a podium, get a TV screen, rent out the theater,- You're not guest-hosting the "Today" show on the weekend, you're annoucing the fucking Oscar nominations! Somebody go host and produce this goddamn thing already! Seriously! I'll take Tiffany Haddish stumbling through half the fucking names instead of this. FUCK!  BTW, now that I'm thinking about it, call Tiffany Haddish, make her HOST! OR SOMEBODY!!!! This is what you get when nobody's running the damn thing, you end up with the worst of everything! Man, I am not looking forward to these Oscars.

"Wow, it's early,"
"What'd you eat for breakfast,"
"I'm doing jumping jack during the break?"

This kind of faux banter, is fine, when it's done on the stage during announcements, when it's a formal kind of thing, but when you make this informal, and hacky in the morning, you make it feel like it's not important at all. It feels like the banter after the nutritionist segment on the early show. Only faker, 'cause you got Diana Ross's most talented kid and that Pakistani actor we all like but can't pronounce his names, just pretending to banter. And talking about never waking up to hear the announcements before! Seriously, podium, stage, TV screen, let Kumail and Tracee Ellis, loads of coffee and loads of bagels for the Press, just...- UGH!

Alright, if I talk about anymore about that atrocity, I'm just gonna end up screaming. On to the nominees, we there were actually quite a few surprises, and big ones at that, that we really need to talk about, so let's run through it.

2018 ACADEMY AWARD NOMINEES!(Note: Star equals correct prediction)

*Black Panther-Pro.: Kevin Feige
*BlackkKlansman-Pro.: Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee
1/2*Bohemian Rhapsody-Pro.: Graham King
*The Favourite-Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos
*Green Book-Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga
*Roma-Gabriela Rodriguez and Alfonso Cuaron
*A Star is Born-Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor
*Vice-Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick

Well, I have eight right, but I had 7 1/2 correct nominations right. I had "Bohemian Rhapsody" being added if there were ten nominees, but "If Beale Street Could Talk" completely missed out. I had heard people say that that was a possibility, and how it was snubbed at SAG and PGA, but I truly, honestly just didn't believe that was anything. I'm not really certain what happened there. I took a flyer on "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" as the 9th one is; I suspect it was actually closer to a nomination then people think, but, we'll never know.

*Alfonso Cuaron-"Roma"
*Spike Lee-"BlackkKlansman"
*Yorgos Lanthimos-"The Favourite"
*Adam McKay-"Vice"
Pawel Pawlikowski-"Cold War"

I heard late, that Pawel Pawlikowski was a real possibility for this category; I really didn't believe it at first either. I knew he got into BAFTA but I just wrote that off as a British thing, 'cause Pawliwkowski, while he is Polish and makes a lot of films in Poland, he's done some critically-acclaimed work in Great Britain as well. Admittedly, part of this is that, I've never actually liked any of his films yet, so I probably dismissed him more than I should've. That said, I can't remember the last time, two foreign language films got into Director in the same year? Wait, has that ever happened?

(Five minutes later)

Gotta go back to '76 when Ingman Bergman got in for "Face to Face" and Lina Wertmuller got in "Seven Beauties". Yeah, no wonder I wasn't predicting this one. First time since, I don't know when that DGA missed two of the nominees. Not looking that one up now though. BTW, first time Spike Lee's ever gotten into Director, which, yeah, that's ridiculous, but glad it finally happened.

*Yalitza Aparicio-"Roma"
*Glenn Close-"The Wife"
*Olivia Colman-"The Favourite"
*Lady Gaga-"A Star is Born"
*Melissa McCarthy-"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

Wow, and I actually think I put the Gold Derby superbet on this one, awesome! Ah, I feel sad for Emily Blunt now. Oh, christ, I just realized she got snubbed twice this year. (Sigh) My god, she's gonna set a record soon at this rate. She's already had like six or seven Golden Globes nominations, never gotten an Oscar nomination. I know the Globes are bullshit, but that's fucked up.


*Christian Bale-"Vice"
*Bradley Cooper-"A Star is Born"
Willem Dafoe-"At Eternity's Gate"
*Rami Malek-"Bohemian Rhapsody"
Viggo Mortensen-"Green Book"

Willem Dafoe doesn't surprise me too much, but no John David Washington really surprises me a lot, and it's really gonna piss some people off that Viggo Mortensen got in instead of him now. The name I had in there was Ethan Hawke for "First Reformed", which didn't get completely overlooked, that ended up being the "Nightcrawler" of the Oscars this year, the film with the super-acclaimed, overdue lead role, only getting in for Screenplay. I really thought "First Reformed" was gonna do a little better than that, but, I guess if Ethan Hawke is overdue to win, and he is, then Willem Dafoe is way overdue. I guess I can see it.

Amy Adams-"Vice"
Marina De Tavira-"Roma"
*Regina King-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
*Emma Stone-"The Favourite"
*Rachel Weisz-"The Favourite"

I mean this could obviously change a hundred times by now, but the fact that Amy Adams got in, means, I'm gonna stick to my prediction from a few years ago and say that she's not getting in again unless they're certain she's gonna win, so, I'm predicting her to win now. Sorry, Regina, I hope those dozens of Emmys can comfort you over this. Yeah, I'm sure they will. And, did I even have Marina-, yeah, I had her on my longlist, but she came in so late, I didn't think she was getting in, but the fact she did over Claire Foy, eh, well, frankly I think that means "Roma"'s gotta be looked upon as the huge Best Picture front runner for Picture.

*Mahershala Ali-"Green Book"
*Adam Driver-"BlackkKlansman"
*Sam Elliott-"A Star is Born"
*Richard E. Grant-"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Sam Rockwell-"Vice"

If there is a second choice for front-runner, it might be "Vice". It overperformed getting Sam Rockwell in late, which I probably should've foresaw, but I was betting on "Black Panther" getting something abover the line, and wow, it didn't even get into Screenplay. Dammit. Arbitrary nominee? (Shrugs) Anyway, "Vice", overperformed with this nomination. Might just be a little belated love for Rockwell, who got his first nomination and win last year, but still. Nice to see Sam Elliot and Richard E. Grant get in too, their first nominations for both of them.

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs-Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
*BlackkKlansman-Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
*Can You Ever Forgive Me?-Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
*If Beale Street Could Talk-Barry Jenkins
*A Star is Born-Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

So, "Black Panther" got snubbed, for "The Ballas of Buster Scruggs", which, silly me, I had in the wrong category. I should've looked closer into that, but this is actually kinda funny, because two, of the six short stories that encompass "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" were based loosely on other works. One by Jack London and one by Stewart Edward White. You know, if I knew that caveat was in there, I probably would've predicted it for Adapted Screenplay, even if, very literally most of the screenplay was Original.

*The Favourite-Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
*First Reformed-Paul Schrader
*Green Book-Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
*Roma-Alfonso Cuaron
*Vice-Adam McKay

Hmm, got all five. I always get a Screenplay category correct. I guess "Eighth Grade" is the big snub here, but I'm sorry, Paul Schrader needed to get nominated. It's actually incredibly ridiculous that he never got nominated before. Thank God he snuck in for that.

*Incredibles 2-Dir.: Brad Bird, Pro.: John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle
*Isle of Dogs-Dir./Pro.: Wes Anderson, Pro.: Scott Rudin and Jeremy Dawson
*Mirai-Dir.: Mamoru Hosoda; Pro.: Yuichiro Saito
*Ralph Breaks the Internet-Dir.: Phil Johnston & Rich Moore; Pro.: Clark Spencer
*Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse-Dir.: Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey and Rodney Rothman; Pro.: Phil Lord & Christopher Miller

Yeah, this is was a pretty predictable category. In fact, it's been way too predictable lately; they really have to go back to just letting the Animation branch pick the nominees; let it be more unpredictable in future years. (Shrugs) Oh well.

Free Solo-Dir./Pro.: Elizabeth Chai Vaserhelya and Jimmy Chin; Pro.:  Evan Hayes and Shannon Dill
Hale County This Morning, This Evening-Dir.: RaMell Ross; Pro.: Joslyn Barnes and Su Kim
*Minding the Gap-Dir./Pro.: Bing Liu; Pro.:Diane Moy Quan
Of Fathers and Sons-Dir.: Talai Derki; Pro.: Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert
*RBG-Julie Cohen & Betsy West

Now, this category need to start being far more predictable! (Sigh) You know, screwing over Jane Goodall, okay, I'm not as annoyed at that as some were, screwing over Roger Ebert, fine, he's a film critic, maybe he deserved one last poke-in-the-eye from the Academy, but screwing over Mister Rogers just feel wrong, on so many levels. The documentary Branch should really start letting others decide these nominees. It's turning back in time to when the most popular and best documentaries would just keep getting passed over and screwed over. (Sigh) You know, I had three documentaries in my Top Ten List for 2017, and none of their were nominated for this. It's like, if it's an entertaining film, they don't want to nominate it anymore? (Sigh)

Capernaum-Dir. Nadine Labaki (Lebanon)
*Cold War-Dir.: Pawel Pawlikowski (Poland)
Never Look Away-Dir.: Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck (Germany)
*Roma-Dir.: Alfonso Cuaron (Mexico)
*Shoplifters-Dir.: Hirokazu Kore-eda (Japan)

Man, for some reason, the Academy just isn't comfortable with South Korea getting into this category. Man, especially with all the great films coming from that country in recent years, I don't get that at all. Anyway, nothing too surprise. I had "The Guilty" over "Never Look Away", but I had these seven as the most likely nominees. Nice to see a Kore-eda film finally get in. Weird that three of these films got into Cinematography. Hmm.

*Cold War-Lukasz Zal
*The Favourite-Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away-Caleb Deschanel
*Roma-Alfonso Cuaron
A Star is Born-Matthew Libatique

I should be congratulating Alfonso Cuaron on his four Oscar nominations alone this year, but I don't think it's official since Foreign Language Oscars officially go to the country instead of the film, but he can easily win here, which means, he could win Oscars like four or even five different categories, which would be ridiculous. He already has a Director and Editing Oscar, you know. Still, three foreign films, Jesus! I didn't even have "Never Look Away" on my longlist! Man, I totally missed that one. I mean, I know Caleb Deschanel is a big name, but still....

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs-Mary Zophres
*Black Panther-Ruth E. Carter
*The Favourite-Sandy Powell
*Mary Poppins Returns-Sandy Powell
*Mary Queen of Scots-Alexandra Byrne

I knew there was a weird fourth one coming in; I had "The Nutcracker and the Four Realms" sneaking in late. Instead, the Academy is doing it's Amy Adams thing with the great Mary Zophres, who's I think of as one of the great costume designers out there, but the Academy has generally overlooked or snubbed most of her career. Hell, I had her as a favorite two years ago for "La La Land", but she lost to Colleen Atwood, 'cause she only had one truckload of Oscars at that point. Speaking of truckloads of Oscars, Sandy Powell is nominated against herself, again. It's the third time that's happened. It's her 13th and 14th nominations. I can't it's only Alexandra Byrne's fifth btw. She hasn't won or been nominated since "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"! Wow, it seems like she always gets in. Huh. Also Ruth Carter has never won, which is ridiculous btw.

*BlackkKlansman-Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody-John Ottman
The Favourite-Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Green Book-Patrick J. Don Vito
*Vice-Hank Corwin

Wow! John Ottman's mostly listed as a composer. Hmm. And Barry Alexander Brown was last nominated in 1979, for Best Documentary Feature! Huh. Anyway, no past winners here, and a lot of snubs. I had "Roma'" and "A Star is Born" in, and "First Man" is still the biggest snub of the three, that got in everywhere and I thought Tom Cross was untouchable when he had a shot to get in until now. This is supposed to be the best Best Picture predictor after Director. It does have five Best Picture nominees, but, this still seems like an anomaly year for the category.

*Border-Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer
*Mary Queen of Scots-Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks
Vice-Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney

I think I went heart over head by picking "Stan & Ollie" instead of "Vice"; that was one of my last-second changes that really bit me in the ass, but other than that, I think I'm starting to understand the Makeup Branch's tendencies a little better. It's still ridiculously obnoxious that they only have three nominations; I don't know what the hell's on with that. And I have to repeat this, that's a Branch thing, the Academy as a whole, wants them to go to five, have for years, but they just insist on three. I don't know why and I just don't get it.

*Black Panther-Ludwig Goransson
*BlackkKlansman-Terence Blanchard
If Beale Street Could Talk-Nicholas Britell
*Isle of Dogs-Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns-Marc Shaiman

I had "If Beale Street Could Talk" in sixth here, oddly one of the places I thought it'd miss out is where it actually got in. It's also where I predicted "A Quiet Place" getting in; got into one of the Sound categories though, wasn't completely snubbed. "First Man" though, people are pissed at this one; maybe they got an argument, although Justin Hurwitz has enough over the last few years. I'm actually shocked "Mary Poppins Returns" got in. I kinda discounted that immediately, because I thought they wouldn't go for a sequel score to something, especially, so many decades after the original. And with a different composer, I should add. I know, John Williams got one of the recent "Star Wars" films in here for Score, but he created the original one, so he gets a pass. (Plus, John Williams. Honestly, if he had done the "Ready Player One" score instead of Alan Silverstri, I was about ready to predict that getting in.)

*"When a Cowboys Trades His Spurs for WIngs"-The Ballad of Buster Scruggs-Music/Lyric: David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
*"All the Stars"-Black Panther-Music: Mark Spears, Music/Lyric: Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony Tiffith, Lyric: Solana Rowe
*"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns-Music/Lyric: Marc Shaiman; Lyric: Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman
"I'll Fight"-RBG-Music/Lyric: Diane Warren
*"Shallow"-A Star is Born-Music/Lyric: Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt

I had two songs from "Mary Poppins Returns" getting in, but other than that, I'm surprised how good I did in this category. I called Dolly Parton getting snubbed, I called "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" which happily way overperformed at these Oscars; I'm particularly glad it got in here. I didn't Diane Warren getting in this year, this is her ninth nominations, she's never won, and normally I've been one of the people who've really pushed for her to get in, but I'll be honest, I didn't think this was one of her better songs. Plus, she's up against Lady Gaga, who's the favorite, and the Academy really owes her an I.O.U. for looking over her in this category three years ago for "Til It Happens to You" from the documentary "The Hunting Ground", which she should've won, and that was also a song, co-written by Diane Warren. (Frustrating shrugs) Boy, the Academy really liked "RBG", didn't they? Still can't believe they gave Mr. Rogers the finger though. Documentary Branch is assholes. I haven't seen the movie, but c'mon, they have to be assholes. Let's hope we don't go "Hoop Dreams" investigate their ass again.

BTW, here's a weird stat, a bit of a reversal from three years ago when not a single nominee in this category was nominated for any other Oscars, now, every film in this category got nominated for an Oscar in at least one other category. First time that's happened since, 2008, which, only had three nominees and two of them were for "Slumdog Millionaire". Before that, you gotta go back to 2006, which has three nominees for "Dreamgirls". Last time five nominees, all from different movies, and each movie had at least one other Oscar nomination..., 2004. when "The Motorcycle Diaries", which won that year had a second nomination for Screenplay, beat "The Chorus", which got into Foreign Language film, "The Phantom of the Opera", which I believe had Cinematography and Art Direction nods, "Shrek 2", which had an Animated Feature nomination, and "The Polar Express", which got both Sound categories. 2004 was weird below-the-line at the Oscars.

*Black Panther-Pro.: Hannah Beachler, Set: Decoration: Jay Hart
*The Favourite-Pro.: Fiona Crombie, Set: Alice Felton
*First Man-Pro.: Nathan Crowley. Set: Kathy Lucas
*Mary Poppins Returns-Pro.: John Myhre. Set: Gordon Sim
Roma-Pro.: Eugenio Caballero, Set: Barbara Enriquez

I was just stupid on this one. I picked, "Ready Player One" for some reason; I don't know what I was thinking there.

*Black Panther-Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody-John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone
*First Man-Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
*A Quiet Place-Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
*Roma-Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay

That's the last time I fall for the "Mission: Impossible" movie sneaking in!!! I didn't expect "Bohemian Rhapsody", sure, but I've fallen for that way too many fucking times now. BTW, back to my rant on how the Academy is being run by somebody who's not running a god damn thing and none of the details are being paid attention to and there's no vision of the Academy thing, normally on Oscar.com, they have among other things, a notation about every past nomination each of the nominees has had in the past. They don't have that online right now, at least at the time of this writing. They have the film, a trailer, and a synopsis and each of the other nominations the films got, but there's no entry for each of the individual nominees, not even, "This is the first nomination for..." so and so, or in the Sound category's case, "Along with his nomination for Sound Mixing, this is Skip Lievsay eight nomination," notation. I've had to look each of them up, if I need to. This lacksadaisical appoach to the details is really getting on my nerves at this point.

*Black Panther-Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
*Bohemian Rhapsody-Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
*First Man-Jan Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
Roma-Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and Jose Antonio Garcia
*A Star is Born-Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Marrow

I kinda foolishly took "A Quiet Place" for both categories; I should've really just gone all in on "Roma" here. That said, this is a surprise nomination; it didn't get nominated at the CAS, Sound Mixers' Guild Awards, so, honestly, this is a bit of a surprise.

*Avengers: Infinity War-Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
*Christopher Robin-Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
First Man-Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm
*Ready Player One-Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk
*Solo: A Star Wars Story-Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlon and Dominic Tuohy

I could kinda see this coming as the VES Awards had completely snubbed "Black Panther" for whatever reason. (Shrugs) I thought the Visual Effects were fine, although not as crucial to that film as other Marvel movies, I guess. I'm happy I called "Christopher Robin" though, that really overperformed at the Guild. It's nice to see "First Man" get in; I kinda thought that would be too reminiscent of earlier Visual Effects masterpieces, plus it only got Supporting Visual Effects at the VES Award, but there's usually one that gets in from that category. I really should've predicted that getting.

*Animal Behaviour-Alison Snowden and David Fine
*Bao-Dir.: Damee Shi; Pro.: Becky Neiman
Late Afternoon-Dir.: Louise Bagnall; Pro.: Nuria Gonzalez Blanco
One Small Step-Dir.: Andrew Chesworth; Pro.: Bobby Pontillas
*Weekends-Trevor Jimenez

I'm happy "One Small Step" snuck in; I actually would've nominated that one myself instead, that was one of the ones I actually did see. Really surprised "Late Afternoon" got in; I saw that one too, and I didn't care for that one at all. Other than that, nothing particularly shocking here, although I thought "Age of Sail" was an easy nod here.

*Black Sheep-Dir.: Ed Perkins; Pro.: Jonathan Chinn
End Game-Rob Epstein and Jeffrey Friedman
LIFEBOAT-Dir.: Skye Fitzgeraldo; Pro.: Bryn Mooser
A Night at the Garden-Marshall Curry
*Period. End of Sentence-Dir./Pro.: Rayka Zehtabchi; Pro.:  Melissa Berton

Wow, did I miss this category. Little amazed that "End Game" got in, over "Zion"; those are both Netflix shorts, but I think universally "Zion" was considered the more likeable and inspirational of the two. (And frankly looked despressing s fuck) Speaking of Depressing as fuck, how the hell did "A Night at the Garden" get in? There wasn't anything new shot for it, it was just archival footage. Important footage, sure, but...- Documentary branch has been weird lately. I also "Los Camandos" which I thought was surely getting in. Also, now you don't go with the cool title; I saw "My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes", that was a good documentary short. (Sigh) I swear.

Detainment-Dir./Pro.: Vincent Lambe; Pro.: Darren Mahon
Fauve-Dir.: Jeremy Comte; Pro.: Maria Gracia Turgeon
*Marguerite-Dir.: Marianne Farley; Pro.: Marie-Helene Panisset
Mother-Dir./Pro.: Rodrigo Sorogoyen; Pro.: Maria del Puy Alvarado
Skin-Dir./Pro.: Guy Nattiv; Pro.: Jaime Ray Newman

UGH! I did shitty in this category. Part of it is opinion, I actually saw "Fauve", and I thought it was just depressing. I mean, I guess it's technically an interesting filmmaking achievement. I figured I was wrong about "May Day", although, "Caroline" missing is just wrong. I heard "Skin" might get in; I should've took a shot on that one. "Mother," I should've caught earlier that the director is making a feature-length version of that one. (Sign) Why are there so many films called "Mother" out there. I'm sure Freud has an answer, but... (Shrugs). "Detainment" I had in and out; but I was hoping for comedy to get in. Actually, this is a tough race to predict. "Marguerite" has some name value behind it, "Detainment" has a lot of good publicity, "Mother" and "Skin" have names behind them too. This is gonna be tough.

Alright, weeks of speculation ahead. I gotta get back to work on the posts I'm in the middle of and catching up to last year's movies. (And the previous years... [sigh])

How'd I do on Gold Derby anyway? (Searching)

Eh, little less than last year, 3630th. Eh. 85 1/2 out of 123. One of these days, I'm gonna nail this! In the meanitme, I think I'll go yell at some clouds.

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