Thursday, January 15, 2015

2014 OSCAR NOMINATION ANALYSIS! Every CATEGORY ANALYZED and a look at how CORRECT MY PREDICTIONS would've been had the conspiracy to keep my psychic powers quiet- Oh, I'll do that again next year. A look at what I got RIGHT and what I got WRONG on my PREDICTIONS.

Well, I didn't do the character bit about how I'm perfect with prediction this year, 'cause I was running late, I guess I won't do it again this year, (Although I do believe my predictions were dead-on until they were changed slightly after I posted in order to make me seem fallible and less all-knowing, but, don't worry it this year. I didn't even remember to send a Memo this year to them.) So, let's assume that didn't happen and I got a few things wrong. There were some surprises, some big ones that change categories, some really stupid ones (Documentary Branch, we're gonna have words!) but now that the results are out, time to compare and time to look at the categories now. Time for the most extensive OSCAR NOMINEES ANALYSIS this side of Goldderby!

(* represents correct prediction)

American Sniper
*Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
*The Imitation Game
*The Theory of Everything

For the first time, only 8 films made Best Picture list, and if you know how they count, that is a mathematical anomaly that should be looked into; it is almost an impossibility despite their claim of 5-10 nominees/year for their not to be 9 nominees, so there must have been a lot of just disagreement on the on bottom of the ballots. An inordinate amount for only eight films to reach the 5% threshold. And if you want proof of the split, for the first time since they expanded the Best Picture category, a Best Director nominee, didn't get into to Best Picture!!!!!!!!!! Talk about a buried lead but Bennett Miller got the fifth Best Director spot, but "Foxcatcher" somehow- it had to be ninth, I'm convinced but, it didn't break the threshod. I had "Foxcatcher" in, I thought "Nightcrawler instead of "American Sniper", which I had tenth, barely getting in, I made a last-second switch to make that tenth, and put "Selma" in. By the way, I'm looking this up now, but I think the first time ever, that a movie only got two nominations, and those nominations were Best Picture and Best Song. Sorry, "Selma"; I knew there was some backlash, but it definitely did bad again, but "Best Song" and "Best Picture" very unusual. 

*Wes Anderson-"The Grand Budapest Hotel"
*Alejandro G. Inarritu-"Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
*Richard Linklater-"Boyhood"
Bennett Miller-"Foxcatcher"
*Morten Tyldum-"The Imitation Game"

I think everybody had Morten Tyldum after BAFTA and DGA, hopefully you all did, I kept going back and forth between Damian Chazelle for "Whiplash" and Bennett Miller for "Foxcatcher" as the fifth nominee; and I eventually went with Chazelle instead, I mentioned it multiple times on my Predictions blog, I even put it up on in the Oscar forums about "Selma" backlash, and I was right it turns out, so Ava Duvernay, not in, but how Bennett Miller got into Directing and not into Best Picture, is jut bizarre. That means, enough people, outside the Directing Branch, must've had trouble with "Foxcatcher", for some reason. I'm not sure why exactly, but the Directors nominated it, I have to assume they had it high up there, and nobody else did; that's the only conclusion I can come too. It got into Directing, Writing, Makeup, (Those weird Makeup people) and the two acting nods, hmm. You'd think that was an actors' picture too, wouldn't you? I'm not sure how that fell out, splits votes at the bottom, that's all I can think of. 

Steve Carell-"Foxcatcher"
Bradley Cooper-"American Sniper"
*Benedict Cumberbatch-"The Imitation Game"
*Michael Keaton-"Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"
*Eddie Redmayne-"The Theory of Everything"

I went a little hopeful/crazy by putting Steve Carell into Supporting Actor instead of Lead, hoping other Oscar voters took the same cue for BAFTA last week, but make no mistakes, he definitely got votes for both categories, and probably knocked out somebody like Jake Gyllenhaal or David Oyelowo in the Lead category, with the help of the Supporting Actor votes, once they put him in Lead Actor, and I wouldn't completely discount him pulling off an upset here either, but I think it's clearly between Redmayne and Keaton, it's a deadlock right now on Goldderby between those two. Gyllenhaal, btw, there's always gonna be one now, that will get Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG and somehow he'll miss the Oscar; it seems like it's inevitable now, there'll be one every year, this time around, it's Gyllenhaal. Don't overlook Bradley Cooper either, "American Sniper" has been picking up ground, and he has been busy, on Broadway doing "The Elephant Man", he hasn't even campaigned yet, so he has a shot to come up between them, he's been nominated, like three years in a row now? Yeah, three years straight, hasn't won; they want to give it to him. It's a possibility. They liked "American Sniper" enough to put it in Best Picture, so they're watching it. 

Marion Cotillard-"Two Days, One Night"
Felicity Jones-"The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore-"Still Alice"
Rosamund Pike-"Gone Girl"
Reese Witherspoon-"Wild"

Ooh, Jennifer Aniston gave it a good run, getting into SAG, Globes, and Critics Choice, for "Cake", but didn't get in here, but let's take a look at who did get in, 'cause Marion Cotillard is a gamechanger nominee for "Two Days, One Night", which is the film from the Dardenne Brothers, it was Belgium's entry in the Foreign Language film, and it didn't make the shortlist. But, I thought going in, Marion Cotillard was screwed because she potentially up for two Best Lead roles, this and "The Immigrant", and there wasn't support or push for either one, and "The Immigrant" has been streaming on Netflix, so they've seen that one too, and "Two Days, One Night" was not the one most saw, but she would've split votes, and it's not like how Julianne Moore would split votes, because they gave up on her being nominated for "Maps to the Stars" awhile ago, despite a Cannes Award for it, (They even had a late push for her in Supporting for that) but for Cotillard to overcome that, plus other actresses in her way, and remember, she's pulled off a surprise win before for a Foreign Language film; this also could be a makeup for her not being nominated for "Rust and Bone"; this is gamechanger nomination, this went from Julianne Moore, with a walk to Best Actress, because let's face it, she should've won by now for something, but this is a two-woman race now. They saw Marion Cotillard in "Two Days, One Night" and put her in, none of the others, maybe Felicity Jones really have a shot, but this race got interesting really quick with the Cotillard nomination. 

Robert Duvall-"The Judge"
*Ethan Hawke-"Boyhood"
*Edward Norton-"Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"
*Mark Ruffalo-"Foxcatcher"
*J.K. Simmons-"Whiplash"

No surprises here; I put Steve Carell in Supporting instead of Lead, so that was  my gamble; I knew he would get enough votes in both that added together he would get in, but I am a little surprised, despite other nominations that Robert Duvall got in for "The Judge", which has generally not been overly well-received, except for Duvall, and he's been snubbed before when get nominated at Spirit, SAG, Globes, etc., most recently with "Get Low"; I mean, he's so consistency in every role that it tempting to nominate him in everything, so it's not the worst thing ever that he's up again, and frankly this was a weaker year in the category. That's part of why I went out of my way to try and throw Carell in there for Supporting, 'cause I really wasn't seeing much pattern or scenarios for anybody else getting in frankly. Maybe Brolin got a vote here and there, maybe Miyavi for "Unbroken" maybe Wilkinson for "Selma", maybe Cristoph Waltz for "Big Eyes", but nothing was sneaking in that wasn't already a contender. So, same five as everywhere and as long as the patterns stay true, congratulations J.K. Simmons. Nobody deserves it more btw, incredibly talented, great actor; I've been a fan since "Oz" and "Law & Order", Jason Reitman uses him all the time, one of my old professors plays in the same fantasy football league with you; I've heard nothing but good things about him, and unless something happens, it looks like it's safely going to him now. 

*Patricia Arquette-"Boyhood"
Laura Dern-"Wild"
Keira Knightley-"The Imitation Game"
*Emma Stone-"Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"
*Meryl Streep-"Into the Woods"

Ah, I got talked into Jessica Chastain for "A Most Violent Year", I should've stayed true to Laura Dern. Um, no real surprises here, and in case you lost count, this is Meryl Streep's 19th nomination, Jesus Christ. I know, even she thinks it's absurd, but, if she would give shittier performances..., eh, they'd probably still nominated her.- No, I'm kidding, I love Meryl Streep, she does get in sometimes in weird places though. Keira Knightley's nomination is the one I'm a little more befuddled by; and I normally love her, but I didn't think she was that great in "The Imitation Game", but tough to roll over a Weinstein picture even slightly when it has momentum going for it. That said, Patricia Arquette is the heavy, again, no real surprise, although Rene Russo, not getting in...; I think that would've been nice, you could've thrown her in. Great actress, never been nominated, sure "Nightcrawler" in some ways underperformed, it did get into Writing though, some people liked it; I would've liked to have seen her in, especially since she hasn't done too much work in a while, seeing her in something that's even in contention for an award.... Oh well. 

American Sniper-Jason Hall
*The Imitation Game-Graham Moore
*Inherent Vice-Paul Thomas Anderson
*The Theory of Everything-Anthony McCarten
*Whiplash-Damien Chazelle

I was in denial about "American Sniper", that one's my fault; I had "Gone Girl" in there, and that was stupid, but they almost never nominate, much less have someone win for adapted their own work, and Gillian Flynn was adapting her own novel there. (Last time was 1999 with John Irving winning for adapting "The Cider House Rules") Glad I pulled out "Inherent Vice" though, P.T. Anderson, coming back into the Screenplay category, he's missed it last film, with "The Master" only getting three acting nods last time. Turns out Chazelle gets helped by being forced to switch categories and put in Adapted controversially, but it's actually not an overly field he's up agains; he might pull this off. 

*Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)-Aleandro G. Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo
*Boyhood-Richard Linklater
*Foxcatcher-E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
*The Grand Budapest Hotel-Screenplay: Wes Anderson; Story: Wes Anderson and Hugo Guiness
*Nightcrawler-Dan Gilroy

Wow, normally I get Adapted Screenplay right and screw up Original Screenplay, that's what happened three years straight for me, but took a good shot getting "Nightcrawler" into Original Screenplay. so kudos to me on that one; that was the one kinda iffy one to me, and there were more than a few choices in a crowded field that would've made sense there. Glad I pulled that one off, and congrats to Dan Gilroy for even getting in this field. Oy! "Birdman...", "Boyhood", and "Grand Budapest..." are probably the three top Best Picture favorites, and they're all up for Directing. The Globes split them all up, who knows, maybe the Oscars will do the same, or one will come out and sweep. If someone sweeps it though, it's probably "Boyhood". Oh, and don't rule out "Foxcatcher" either for this one. Hmm. Loaded category. 

*Big Hero 6
*The Boxtrolls
*How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
*The Tale of Princess Kaguya

This is one of the biggest surprise this year, the lack of the nomination for "The LEGO Movie", which I thought had a far outside shot at Best Picture as well as Animated Feature; it did get into Best Song for "Everything is Awesome" so it wasn't shutout, and instead "Song of the Sea", Tomm Moore's film got the last slot. Remember, he was nominated surprisingly a few years ago for "The Secret of the Kells", which I didn't particularly like, btw, but the Animation Branch apparently loves him. There is an opening now for Best Picture, "Big Hero 6" and "How to Train Your Dragon 2" are probably the most obvious choices there, but don't discount "The Tale of Princess Kaguya", this is Studio Ghibli's latest, their other great director Isao Takahata, who's most famous film is the great "Grave of the Fireflies", one of the very best animated films of all-time, and one of the films that put Studio Ghibli on the map, they gave Hayao Miyazaki a Lifetime Achievement Oscar this year, they given it to them before, with Miyazaki's "Spirited Away", and they've two other Miyazaki films since, they haven't award Takahata yet. Studio Ghibli's future is in a bit of jeopardy too, so they might not have another time to do so, so that's not a discard-able obscure animated feature that's nominated; that might actually be the favorite right now, especially if everybody's split on the other American films, it can easily sneak in there and take it. 

Finding Vivian Maier
*Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth

(Frustrated Sigh) This is FUCKING BULLSHIT! I'm sorry, but you can have Errol Morris, Michael Moore, Werner Herzog, Alex Gibney, Barbara Kopple and Lucy Walker come up to me, and say that these are the five best documentaries ever made, and this would still be bullshit that "Life Itself" isn't nominated. I haven't even seen the movie, but the Documentary Branch is never gonna forgive Steve James. It's impossible- If they didn't nominate him, for a documentary on Roger Ebert, then they're just never gonna nominate him for anything,- if you don't know this story, I'll give you the small details, in 1994, James made "Hoop Dreams" one of greatest films, much less documentaries of all-time, it made more #1 lists by critics than any other film, including "Pulp Fiction" that year, but it wasn't nominated for Best Documentary, supposedly 'cause it was too long (Although it got an Editing nominations, so if Editors found nothing wrong with it's length) it turned out, the branch purposefully gave it low scores, in order to get somebody else to win; it ended causes a complete restructuring of the category, and it was Siskel & Ebert who were the ones leading the charge to have the changes made. That's why they became close to begin with, and why James was trusted with telling Roger Ebert's life story at the end of his life,- I know, we're supposed to care what's about the best in cinema, and maybe it sucks, I doubt it, but even if there were five better movie, they didn't nominate James for his last film "The Overnighters" or any other film he's done for that matter, but sometimes, nominating the best film and doing the right thing are two different, and especially if they're wrong and it should've been nominated, (Which, with the Documentary Branch is certainly a probability, not just a possibility) they should've nominated him; then didn't have to give him the Oscar, but at least nominate Steve James as a gesture of apology, for screwing him over the first time, recognize his work. But no; that didn't happen, the Branch, is still bitter, about it, and btw, I'm gonna call for a new look at the Documentary Branch's rules now, 'cause of this, and they're refusing to nominate him, just to refuse to nominate him, and it's fucking bullshit! If I have one hope in this, I hope "The Salt of the Sea" wins this Oscar, and Wim Wenders, another great, legendary filmmaker who's never won anything, should've many times before, gets his Oscar, and goes up on stage, and talks about how "Life Itself", Steve James and Roger Ebert were screwed over by the Branch. I doubt that'll happen, "CitizenFour" is probably gonna win it, but, it's complete crap that this went down. Cheryl Boone-Isaacs, time to go restructure the Branch again! 

*Ida (Poland)
*Leviathan (Russia)
*Tangerines (Estonia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

Somebody commented to me after my last blogpost that there's no way "Wild Tales" would get nominated, well, whoever did that is eating their words today, but I didn't predict it. I was looking for one upset out there, I had "Corn Island" as my apple in a box of oranges, but "Force Majeure" not nominated for Sweden, that's a bit of a surprise; I don't think a lot of people thought that; I had suspected it, but went against. I did predict "Tangerines"; I knew about that film. First ever nominations for Estonia, and Mauritania a North African country, getting it's first nomination; that's Abderrahmane Sissako's film, he directed "Bamako" years ago, if you remember that one. Obscure country, 'cause I always confuse it with an island nation called "Mauritius", which shows you the kind of geography nerd I am. Um, barring something weird like a "Tangerines" upset, it's probably between "Ida" and "Leviathan" but still, Foreign Language Oscar, constantly known for surprises.

*Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)-Emmanuel Lubezki
*The Grand Budapest Hotel-Robert Yeoman
Ida-Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
*Mr. Turner-Dick Pope
*Unbroken-Roger Deakins

Well, two things, not that the A.M.P.A.S. has shown the proper appreciation to Christopher Nolan before, but they must've really not liked "Interstellar" if it didn't even get in here. (Granted, Wally Pfister, Nolan's usual cinematographer didn't do that one, maybe that had something to do with it) and B. I almost talked myself into nominating "Ida"; I should've pushed it in somewhere. I even said it was a dark horse; I wanted to go with it, but alas, ugh! Missed it. Other than that, "Unbroken" didn't get too much anywhere, but Roger Deakins, nominated again, this is his 12th nomination in 21 years, he's never won; three straight years nominated, four out of the last five years, he's been nominated, and I hate to say this, but he's probably not the favorite this year, as "Birdman..." 'cause people think it's all about lighting, Cinematography, it's also about camerawork, "Birdman..."'s camerawork, where the movie seems like it's practically all one take, even though it isn't, probably impressive to cinematographers, plus, the other nominees are pretty strong too. "Mr. Turner"'s cinematography, looking just like the J.M.W. Turner paintings, which are very light and color sensitive, that's an impressive achievement,- I, ugh. Poor Roger Deakins, I hope he wins, personally, but he- ugh! It's hard to vote against some of these other ones. 

*The Grand Budapest Hotel-Milena Canonero
Inherent Vice-Mark Bridges
*Into the Woods-Colleen Atwood
*Maleficent-Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive
Mr. Turner-Jacqueline Durran

I talked myself out of "Mr. Turner" here, stupidly, seeking to try and find a spot for "Selma" to possibly breakthough, that didn't work, probably a dumb idea anyway to go against Jacqueline Durran despite a lack of a Guild nomination, but they corrected that. The other I got wrong, I had "The Imitation Game" in, instead of "Inherent Vice"; I think a lot of people probably missed that one though, not sure where exactly to put "Inherent Vice" anywhere in the nomination ballots across the board really; that probably messed a lot of people up. Mark Bridges, I believe won before for "The Artist", if I'm not mistaken; yeah, for "The Artist" a couple years ago, so he's a name. I would've figured "The Imitation Game"'s getting everything else, it's a period piece, with Keira Knightley in it, British, had the Guild nomination, Weinstein film.... that's a tough one to think it would miss out on this; strange one too a bit. Hmm. 

American Sniper-Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
*Boyhood-Sandra Adair
The Grand Budapest Hotel-Barney Pilling
The Imitation Game-William Goldenberg

Oh, the one spot I didn't put "The Grand Budapest Hotel". Ugh. well, the shocking omission of "Birdman..." is startling here; this would've seemed to be where a film with so many invisible cuts would thrive, so that's out. Also "Gone Girl", Kirk Baxter, usually with Angus Wall, not that time, but, not only has the Fincher film usually been nominated here, he's won it twice, including once for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" which didn't get a Best Picture or Best Director nod, in a ten-film field too. That was, probably the one spot, other than Rosamund Pike, you really could've written in "Gone Girl" for nomination. That said, this was a difficult category to begin with. "American Sniper", "The Grand Budapest Hotel", definitely some skilled editing in them, "Whiplash" I figured would get in, because of the music; matching music with movement and people playing it, that's almost as difficult as chase sequences, and there wasn't an obvious chase/action movie around to give a nomination too, so it was a bit up in the air this category the whole. "The Imitation Game" though, very suspicious nomination there. Not bad editing,- well, not horrible editing, but trying to find a great skillset of editing in that film, it's a bit of an uphill argument, comparatively to the rest of the noms. That's a suspicious extra Weinstein nomination. 

*The Grand Budapest Hotel
*Guardians of the Galaxy

I'm generally disappointed in my Oscar predicting performance, but 2/3 in the makeup category is okay to me. I knew I should've been wary of picking "Maleficent", but I still "Noah" would've probably been my third choice, but when went with the mostly subtle makeup, of "Foxcatcher", which made, not just Carell, he's is the most obvious compared to other what he traditionally see the actors look like, but I though Ruffalo's makeup was pretty convincing too; they really did use the makeup to help add and accentuate the characters this time around, and that's a good thing. 

*The Grand Budapest Hotel-Alexandre Desplat
*The Imitation Game-Alexandre Desplat
*Interstellar-Hans Zimmer
Mr. Turner-Gary Yershon
*The Theory of Everything-Johann Johannsson

I don't know what happened last night, but apparently I wrote down "Gone Girl" when I meant to write "Interstellar"; I fixed that just now; I swear, that was a error 'caused by tiredness and the deadline rush; I did have "Interstellar" in there. "Mr. Turner"'s nomination is the one I'm most surprised by, and that film, considering did really well in technical categories. I had thought "Inherent Vice" in, trying to find a fifth nomination really; that's probably why I originally thought "Gone Girl", but other than that, no real surprise here. Desplat, eh- if you looked through the nominations, I swear to God, Alexandre Desplat, could very easily have run the whole category this year, he had that many film scores, that easily could've been nominated this year. I wasn't even looking for his name, I was just thinking of titles that could sneak in, "The Monuments Men" was a good score, who did that- Oh Desplat,- or, and it happened like five or six times, he had an amazing year in general. And I'm very happy he finally got the nomination for a Wes Anderson score too, for "The Great Budapest Hotel"; he should've been in for "Moonrise Kingdom" and that really unique score as well, and actually, "Budapest..." in general, no other Wes Anderson film, except for "Fantastic Mr. Fox" had gotten anything other than Screenplay before, but, the production design is crucial, the music is crucial, the costumes are crucial in his films, all the time, and it's nice to see those other technical aspects, many of which, if you read those screenplays of his, are down to the most minute detail of a shot; he's very descriptive about his scenes, and it's really a challenge to create his work, visually. Incredibly elaborate, and I'm glad with "The Grand Budapest Hotel" at least now, it's getting the notoriety it deserves. 

*"Everything is Awesome"-The LEGO Movie- Music/Lyric: Shawn Patterson
*"Glory"-Selma-Music/Lyric: John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn
"Grateful"-Beyond the Lights-Diane Warren
"I'm Not Gonna Miss You"-Glen Campbell... I'll Be Me-Music/Lyric: Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
"Lost Stars"-Begin Again-Music/Lyric: Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois

Okay, if you had told me that Gugu Mbartha-Raw was in a Oscar-nominated film this year, I would just presumed that "Belle" got into Costume Design. "Grateful"?! Over "Split the Difference" from "Boyhood", and-eh "Yellow Flicker Beat" and Coldplay's song from "Unbroken", really, Academy!? Look, I'm a Diane Warren apologist, and I listened to every single one of the 79 songs on the Oscar list btw, that one was pretty lousy; I liked the rest of these actually, and they all would've made my Top Ten, but that one? It's so overly-generic. And now, I gotta go find this movie, "Beyond the Lights", which was directed by, actually a good director, Gina Prince-Bythewood, who directed "Love & Basketball" and "The Secret Life of Bees", so it actually might not be too bad, but songwise, ooh. I don't know about that one. Glen Campbell, nomination for the documentary about him, he's suffering Alzheimer's right now, so I doubt he'll be able to perform at the Oscars, but that was a good song. However, can we talk about Danielle Brisebois, nominated for John Carney's new film, "Begin Again", he first film since the amazing "Once" which won this category in '07, Danielle Brisebois nominated for an Academy Award for writing this really beautiful song, from the movie, she was the little girl in "Archie Bunker's Place", many years ago, she was the little girl who was Edith's stepcousin's daughter, that they brought in after Rob Reiner and Sally Struthers left the show, and Archie and Edith took care of her; she's been a musician for a long time, this is nothing particularly new, she was a member of the New Radicals, a one-hit-wonder band, she's written songs for Natascha Bedingfield and Paula Abdul among numerous others, Kelly Clarkson, Clay Aiken, she's an incredible. She was also, years ago, the original "Annie" on Broadway, just a nice side-story for those who think that name is familiar, congratulations to Danielle Brisebois. going from "Archie Bunker's Place" to Oscar nominee. 

*The Grand Budapest Hotel
*The Imitation Game
*Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

I had "Birdman..." getting in, instead of Mr. Turner; I thought they would throw one contemporary film in there, but "Mr. Turner", the nomination makes sense when you think about it, but it didn't get a Art Directors Guild nomination, strangely enough, It showed up at BAFTA, but I figured they didn't nominate it, for Period Film at the ADG's then, probably not in for Oscars. I have a feeling "Mr. Turner" probably got closer than we think to a lot more awards, possibly Best Picture and Screenplay perhaps than just the technical ones, 'cause it missed a few Guilds, and the BAFTAs supposedly don't like Mike Leigh, but the Oscars do love him, and it's showing here. These technical awards it manage to pile up, very surprising. Gotta remember this for his next film, you can't let, the other awards dictate where a Mike Leigh will end up.

*The Bigger Picture
*The Dam Keeper
Me and My Moulton
A Single Life

So much for my thinking that the Academy likes Bill Plympton. I don't know who he pissed off, but he had two shots this year and missed twice, so I don't know what's going on there. "Me and My Moulton" I thought about nominating, that's Torill Kove's latest, she won the Oscar a few years ago for "The Danish Poet", very beloved Norweigan animator. "A Single Life" caught me by surprise; I wasn't really expecting that to get in at all. Might be an upset there, but "The Bigger Picture", I figured was in 'cause of the animation, and "The Dam Keeper" and "Feast" seemed like the best stories, um, I think it's between one of those three; "A Single Life" could be a spoiler though. I thought "The Numberlys" might get in with their "Metropolis"-homage short, but I guess that was asking a little much.

*Boogaloo and Graham
Butter Lamp (La Lampe au Beurre de Yak)
*The Phone Call

My French isn't great, but I'm pretty the correct translation is "The Yak Butter Lamp", for "Butter Lamp", but oh well. Um, I had "Parvaneh" but I wrote in "Carry On" instead, I'm pissed I changed that, the rest were pretty easy to pick. "Aya"'s won a lot of awards most everywhere it's played, "Boogaloo and Graham" got a BAFTA nomination earlier this year, don't count out "The Phone Call" either, Sally Hawkins stars in that one, and Live Action Shorts like it when big stars come in a do a short for somebody once in a while. More of them do than you think by the way. 

American Sniper
*Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

"The Hobbit" didn't get a single Sound Editors Guild nomination, or Sound Mixing Guild nomination or show up anywhere for Sound until now, so, you got me on that one. I had it as a possibility of course, but boy that might be the call of the decade if you made that one. I had "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" instead of "American Sniper", but that was my fault, "American Sniper" I caught on to that bandwagon way too late, didn't realize how big that one was gonna be until all the nominations came out. That one crawled up late. I got it for Sound Mixing though, which I'm proud of, but I second thought it for Sound Editing, because "Dawn..." had 2 Golden Reel nomination while "...Sniper" only had one, figured it would get in here somewhere, guess not. 

*American Sniper
*Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Well, I got two categories, right. LOL, oh damn. 2/24, not good. I should've done better than that, but this was exactly the lineup as the Cinema Audio Society (Sound Mixers Guild) went, so, not too bad on that one. Figured correctly "Whiplash" would take the spot for Music but not get into Sound Editing, pretty easy call here. 

Captain America: The Winter Soldier
*Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
*Guardians of the Galaxy
*X-Men: Days of Future Past

So, "The Hobbit" into Sound, but not Special Effect, that's reserved for Marvel, I guess. Hmm, good to know. Eh, so "Captain America..." the surprise one to me; I'm glad I called "X-Men..." I don't think too many others picked up on that one. Bit of a surprise since "Captain America..." didn't get into the VES Awards, instead they had "The Hobbit..." and "Maleficent" in a 6-movie race 'cause of a tie, so kinda hard to put "Captain America..." in there, especially since Marvel was already represented. 

*Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Our Curse
*The Reaper (La Parka)
White Earth

Well, boy did I get this category wrong, and I'm shocked Lucy Walker's short film, "The Lion's Mouth Open" didn't get in; I thought that would the obvious favorite there. I'm glad "White Earth" got in; I suspected it might; that one's about, something not being discussed much in regards to recent American development, the oil drilling up in the Northern plains in places like North Dakota, which is not only causing a mass migration 'cause of the need for work, but also, they basically have to start building small towns and cities up there for it, and I actually know somebody who went through that for awhile, very interesting developments happening there. But still, depressing category overall. Suicidal veterans, mother dying, son sick, and cows getting slaughtered. And you wonder why nobody watches the documentary shorts. Depressing, depressing, depressing, material. 

Well, there you go folks, the early morning, category-by-category analysis of the Oscar nominations. I could've done better with the predictions, but it's a long way to go. Tonight's the Critics Choice Awards, don't forget, the one award that does matter, it's on A&E this year, I believe, which sucks for me without cable, but try to catch it if you can, and when the Oscar come back around, the coverage will continue and we'll see how well we predict the winners, and how more importantly how well the Oscars will predict this year's One-Year-Later Awards, which will be right here in December. We're already looking forward and making plans for that. Congratulations to all the nominees, and fuck you, Documentary Branch!

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