Wednesday, February 9, 2022

MY ANNUAL OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANALYSES! Can we please just go back to normal announcements in front of a TV screen next year?! Please!?!?!?!?!?

(Long sighing yawn, deep breath)

Alright. I set my alarm for five, and right on schedule, I'm awake and ten a.m. Time to hear the Oscar nominations announcement. I hope they don't do something too ridiculous for the announcement ceremony this time; I'm really not a big fan of how they've done these lately. Call me a traditionalist or whatever, I like a couple on stage reading the name with accompanying televisions behind them. It looks clean, it feels official, every time they try to be more creative then that, I just feel annoyed. Like, give us a second to breathe when you announce a surprise LaKeith Stanfield nomination in a wrong category and then move on, don't give us dumb small talk.

Alright, let's push play....


Isn't "Movie Lovers Unite" the theme to every Oscars? Next year Oscars' theme should be, "Movies Under the Sea: In Space!", try something that's actually different, y'know? 

(One excruciating hour later)

Oh Jesus Christ, that was the worst one yet!!! God, why do they keep overthinking this shit. I like Tracee Ellis Ross, but Jesus, she is just so ear-gratingly cheerful this early in the morning, and now you're pairing her WITH Leslie Jordan?! Like-, you couldn't wake up any former nominees or somebody I think of and think movies?! I like these two, I don't want to wake up to them doing their daytime news show schtick at five a.m., or whatever time I actually woke up at, but like, they're television people in my mind, and they're not exactly the easiest to listen to naturally.

But a million times worst then that, why are you interviewing a "Movie fan"-! WHO IS NOT A MOVIE FAN!? Where are these people who are like, "No, we prefer only paintings!" or whatever, everyone's a movie fan! It's announcements, please just, show the announcement and stop trying to win a Short-Form Emmy. you're very bad at it Oscars! 

Why are we checking back in on this guy later?! Good lord, just announce the nominees.  

(Frustration Sigh) 

Academy, it's a fucking press statement. I know, it's filmed and it's aired, but it's a press statement. The most important thing, is getting the info to the people who need it. Not just me, the press who have actual deadlines and don't give a shit about some nerdy movie fan, and to everybody else who's waiting for the announcements to be announced. Just, announce the damn nominees! I don't want to hear from an Oscar/movie fan, no matter how good or bad their observations are, (And I actually think they weren't terrible, but still, I don't need to hear from them.) I don't need to hear from WWE wrestlers, or firemen, or students, or nurses-, or-, okay, actually I do need to hear from Phylicia Rashad, I'll give you that one,- (Actually, can we just have Phylicia Rashad all the time, announcing this, I would be in favor of that!) but Jesus Christ, this got worst and worst as it went on. 


Alright, bad mood aside 'cause of how badly they keep botching the simplest damn thing, let's see who got in and who didn't, and see how I did in my predictions. 

    Producers:Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas
    Producers: Philippe Rousselet Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger
*Don't Look Up
    Producers: Adam McKay and Kevin Messic
*Drive My Car
    Producer: Teruhisa YAMAMOTO
    Producers: Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter
*King Richard
    Producers: Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith
*Licorice Pizza
    Producers: Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson
Nightmare Alley
    Producers: Guillermo Del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper
*The Power of the Dog
    Producers: Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier
*West Side Story
    Producers: Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger

Goddamn! I was so close to getting all ten. "Nightmare Alley" sneaking in really surprised me; that film overperformed in general. I had disregarded that one, did not hear much buzz about it at all, and mostly thought it was at best, a crafts movie, and it was but-eh, well, I guess I gotta recalculate that one. Other then that, about what I expected, nothing from DGA got snubbed, only "tick, tick...BOOM!" and "Being the Ricardos" got snubbed from PGA. "The Power of the Dog" looks like the heavy favorite right now, with "Belfast" a close second. Glad to see "Drive My Car" and "Don't Look Up" getting in.

*Paul Thomas Anderson-"Licorice Pizza"
*Kenneth Branagh-"Belfast"
*Jane Campion-"The Power of the Dog"
*Ryusuke HAMAGUCHI-"Drive My Car"
*Steven Spielberg-"West Side Story"

NAILED IT! 5 for 5! 

Alexa play my happy music

I called Denis Villeneuve getting snubbed in favor of Ryusuke HAMAGUCHI. I think they had him in, but people were trying to knock out Branagh or Spielberg, but technical achievement for a big budget sci-fi blockbuster doesn't always equal a directing nod; I learned that lesson well. It they piss off Nolan fans, they'll piss off Villeneuve fans. Oh, and Spielberg's now been nominated for Best Director, in OMG, six different decades! F**k!

Javier Bardem-"Being the Ricardos"
*Benedict Cumberbatch-"The Power of the Dog"
*Andrew Garfield-"tick, tick...BOOM!"
*Will Smith-"King Richard"
*Denzel Washington-"The Tragedy of Macbeth"

I'm always underestimating Javier Bardem in this category; I really gotta stop doing that. "Being the Ricardos" I knew would get snubbed for Best Picture, but the movie still got three acting nominations. That's pretty rare to see three acting nods without a Best Picture and got nothing else; you gotta go back to "The Master" to see that. The entire acting group of nominees are just odd. I'd have to do more research to see how odd for some of them. Like, in a field of ten Best Picture nominees, the Lead Actors only show up in two of them. That's really low, it hasn't been that low since 2015 when only DiCaprio for "The Revenant" and Matt Damon for "The Martian" were up. 

Jessica Chastain-"The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
*Olivia Colman-"The Lost Daughter"
Penelope Cruz-"Parallel Mothers"
*Nicole Kidman-"Being the Ricardos"
*Kristen Stewart-"Spencer"

I'm glad I stuck by Kristen Stewart, but the big shocker here is Lady Gaga's omission. She literally was the only actress who showed up at the SAG, Globes, Critics and BAFTA; getting all those four and not getting into an acting category is not unprecedented; there's usually at least one a year, but not when you're the only one to have done it at all this year! Jesus. Also, no Best Picture nominees here. That's unfortunately a little less unusual in Lead Actress then it is in Lead Actor, but it hasn't happened in a while either. (Typically, the academy and Hollywood in general are more masculine in their approaches to filmmaking and voting, so less leading roles, and more male voting blocks, lead to more male-centered movies in Best Picture, and female-centered movies, ending up more in Actress only) Last time this category had zero Best Picture nominees was 2005 when Reese Witherspoon won for "Walk the Line" against Judi Dench for "Mrs. Henderson Presents", Felicity Huffman for "Transamerica", Keira Knightley for "Pride & Prejudice" and Charlize Theron for "North Country". As to this bunch of nominees, I had Gaga, and I also had Jennifer Hudson in for "Respect," I think I somewhat knew wasn't gonna happen, but I've been burned leaving her off before..., and I figured SAG would be more accurate then it was. Instead Jessica Chastain comes back in, she was my last cut, and Penelope Cruz does it again. This makes her one of the five actresses to be nominated twice for a foreign language role, between this and her nomination in "Volver", and I think the only one who's done if for two Spanish movie roles. Yeah, Liv Ullmann, was nominated twice for Swedish roles, Sophia Loren, twice for Italian roles, and Marion Cotillard and Isabelle Adjani were for French films, so she's the most successful Spanish-born and Spanish-language actor... I think, yeah, 'cause Javier Bardem, only been nominated for Spanish once, for Biutiful. Unless, we count "Before Night Falls" as Spanish? Thats's- that's about 50/50 English-Spanish. I don't think it counts.... Eh, tricky. Anyway, they're the Spanish power couple of our day, and I should clearly have known that they were too powerful not to be nominated together. 

*Ciaran Hinds-"Belfast"
*Troy Kotsur-"CODA"
*Jesse Plemons-"The Power of the Dog"
J.K. Simmons-"Being the Ricardos"
*Kodi Smit-McPhee-"The Power of the Dog"

This one pisses me off, 'cause I knew there was buzz for J.K. Simmons and I know I should've predicted him and I backed out. I put in Jesse Plemons, 'cause I had Bradley Cooper in for "Licorice Pizza", which, stunningly got nothing in acting. Alana Haim missed out for Actress as well. I guess it's not unprecedented but yikes, a BP-nominated P.T. Anderson film not getting into any acting at all! WOW! Congratulations to Troy Kotsur, he's become the second deaf performer to be nominated for an Oscar, after of course, his "CODA" co-star Marlee Matlin, who won lead actress for "Children of a Lesser God" back in '86 for "Children of a Lesser God". Kodi-Smit McPhee btw, who I consider the favorite right now, is 25, and this stat shocked the hell out of me when I heard this, but apparently he would be, the second-youngest winner in the Best Supporting Actor category ever. The only one younger was Timothy Hutton for "Ordinary People" back in 1980, which- yeah, I guess that's right. All the winners that have been younger, were little girls in the category. No little boys; that surprises me. Didn't the kid from "The Yearling" win at least? I could've sworn... (Google search) Oh, it was an Juvenile Oscar; I always forget that those existed. 

Jessie Buckley-"The Lost Daughter"
*Ariana DeBose-"West Side Story"
Judi Dench-"Belfast"
*Kirsten Dunst-"The Power of the Dog"
*Aunjanue Ellis-"King Richard"

(Sigh) Every time I think Judi Dench,- as much as I truly do love her, every time I think it's okay to forget she's in anything and it's okay to ignore her, presume that's she getting in again, look who sneaks in again, the grand ole dame herself. The damnedest thing is in this case, she took a nomination from her castmate as most projected Caitriona Balfe getting in from "Belfast" instead. Jessie Buckley, who I'm happy to see get in, took the slot Ruth Negga was favorite to get, which I'm sad to see. "Passing" missed everything unfortunately. That's sad; it was a big player early on it seemed. Nice to see "The Lost Daughter" though. Those were the two big indy, female-directed indy feature, and directed by great female actors as well. It's actually kinda funny for me, 'cause Maggie Gyllenhaal got nominated years ago for "Crazy Heart", which is one of my all-time favorite correct predictions I ever made, 'cause she got literally nothing before that Oscar nomination, and I called her getting in for that, and now she directed and wrote "The Lost Daughter" and now Jessie Buckley, sneaks in, with a similar nomination. A film that got only 2 acting nomination and something else, low-budget, indy and mainly it's the lead that's being pushed, and the supporting female, who only barely showed up occasionally on the awards circuit, gets in as well. That's some good symmetry there. 

CODA-Sian Heder
*Drive My Car-Ryusuke HAMAGUCHI, Takamasa OE
*Dune-Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
*The Lost Daughter-Maggie Gyllenhaal
*The Power of the Dog-Jane Campion

You know, this is another one I just- grrmmm I looked into Tony Kushner's Oscar history, and I thought,- I know it seems like he's always in, but that's not really entirely true; I knew he could easily get snubbed, but I just didn't see it.... I totally forgot though, that there's a long history of the Writing branch, just, not liking musicals. None of the musicals from this year got nominated. Not counting "A Star is Born" a few years ago, and even then, that film's only debatably a musical, you gotta go back to "Chicago" to see a musical in the category at all and you gotta go back to "Gigi" to see the last one that won. I also underestimated "CODA" pretty badly; I guess it always showed up at precursors, but never showed up a lot; I'm happy I at least called it for Picture at least. Nothing else shocking here for me; I guess no "The Tragedy of Macbeth" although Shakespeare hadn't been nominated since Branagh's five hour "Hamlet" film, so I didn't throw that in. No "Passing", no "House of Gucci", no "Nightmare Alley" which only got Picture outside of crafts. Mostly an as-expected, even "Drive My Car" getting in was a pretty easy call if you were paying attention.

*Belfast-Kenneth Branagh
*Don't Look Up-Adam McKay, Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota
*King Richard-Zach Baylin
*Licorice Pizza-Paul Thomas Anderson
The Worst Person in the World-Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

Ooh, a shocking late inclusion for a second foreign language film to get a Writing nomination, and it wasn't for "Parallel Mothers"...- That's surprising. "The Worst Person in the World" has been building up steam; it was an easy call for International feature, and it's filmmakers, especially Joachim Trier, have been making some really good films for the last decade and a half since "Reprise". I still haven't gotten to his last two films, "Louder than Bombs" and "Thelma', so this makes sense and it's nice to see them get in here. I would've thought "Parallel Mothers" would've gotten in instead here, especially since that wasn't Spain's submission to the International Feature Oscar, and that's Almodovar, I would've thought that would've gotten in if anything. I didn't predict that either, I had "Being the Ricardos", 'cause I kept seeing it enough that I thought, maybe the backlash against Sorkin had to have another backlash the other way, but I guess not. Only acting for the film. Weird. I'm still looking up how unusual it is for a film to get three nominations, all in acting and nothing else, but it's gotta be a low number. 

    Directors: Jared Bush, Byron Howard
    Producers: Yvett Merino, Clark Spencer
    Director: Jonas Poher Rasmussen
    Producers: Monica Hellstrom, Signe Byrge Sorensen, Charlotte Le Gournerie
    Director: Enrico Casarosa
    Producer: Andrea Warren
*The Mitchells vs. the Machines
    Director: Michael Rianda
    Producers: Phil Lord & Christopher Miller, Kurt Albrecht
*Raya and the Last Dragon
    Directors: Don Hall, Carlos Lopez Estrada
    Producers: Peter Del Vecho, Osnat Shurer

Alright, got all five here. The only one I was somewhat concerned about was "Flee", in the past movies usually only got Animated or Documentary, rarely, if ever, both, "Waltz with Bashir" being the big one that got snubbed in animation years ago. However, similar trends with docs had been changing, especially foreign docs, and "Flee", and this led to "Flee" making history. The first film to get nominated for Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature. And it's a well-earned honor, a good movie that deserves that kind of honor. Don't know if it'll win any of them, but the nominations are it's prize. As for this category, I have "Encanto" right now leading, with "The Mitchells vs. the Machines" as the possible spoiler.

    Director/Producer: Jessica Kingdon
    Producers: Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
    Director/Producers: Traci Curry, Stanley Nelson
    Director: Jonas Poher Rasmussen
    Producers: Monica Hellstrom, Signe Byrge Sorensen, Charlotte Le Gournerie
*Summer of Soul (...Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
    Director: Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson
    Producers: Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent, David Dinerstein
Writing with Fire
    Director/Producers: Rintu Thomas, Sushmit Ghosh

I said the documentary category was notoriously unpredictable, and I meant it. The big one that I think everybody missed was "The Rescue", especially the way they'd been loving the more elaborate filmmaking in recent years, that seemed like the easy pick, but it's out. "Ascension" was probably in my sixth slot, but the other I had as longshots to get in, but this is what you get with a juried category, especially when it's within a branch, less predictability, more unusual nominees and winners that don't correlate with the common zeitgeist; isn't that right, BAFTA!!!!! GRRRR. Anyway, I have "Summer of Soul..." in the lead at the moment, seems like the most fun one, and mostly it's been "Summer of Soul..." vs. "Flee" in most other critics awards, so, seems likely at the moment.

*Drive My Car (Japan)
*Flee (Denmark)
*The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
*The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Well, that's a shocker. Congratulations, Bhutan, on that country's first ever nomination in this category. And you likely knocked out Asghar Farhadi's "A Hero" to get in; he's a beloved Academy favorite who's films have won this award twice. Not bad. Especially considering that you've submitted this film before.... Yeah, this is unusual, Bhutan actually submitted "Lunana..." for last year's Oscars, but it was disqualified for consideration on a technicality that there wasn't an established Academy-recognized selection committee for the nation. This is one of those weird technicalities that people don't realize, this award doesn't go to the filmmakers; it actually goes to the country that submitted it, and more specifically to that nation committee that's recognized by the Academy, and Bhutan hadn't submitted a film in over 20 years and the committee wasn't organized and/or recognized by the Academy at the time. Now it is. so they resubmitted, got eligible, made the shortlist and now we can add the tiny Himalayan country to the list of nations that have received a nomination. Are they gonna play spoiler to three films that got nominated in other categories? Eh, probably not, but I've seen it before, let's not immediately overlook it. Nice story though.

*Dune-Greig Fraser
Nightmare Alley-Dan Laustsen
*The Power of the Dog-Ari Wegner
*The Tragedy of Macbeth-Bruno Delbonnel
*West Side Story-Janusz Kaminski

Well, I got Kaminski getting in despite missing the ASC nomination, but I had "Belfast" in and took out "Nightmare Alley". Nothing surprising here, although congrats to Ari Wegner; she's only the second woman to ever be nominated in this category. Yeah, I know, cinematography is worst then Director; I'm not sure why, but she could be the first to win. That'd be exciting. 

*Cruella-Jenny Beavan
Cyrano-Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
*Dune-Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
*Nightmare Alley-Luis Sequeira
*West Side Story-Paul Tazewell

This was the one category that I did predict "Nightmare Alley" is, so I'm glad I got that right at least. (Oh, wait, I got it right in Production Design too. Okay, so I went 2 for 2 of the ones I picked with them anyway) I had "House of Gucci" getting in, instead of "Cyrano", which, really how the hell did this sneak in here? I mean, I know how, Jacqueline Durran's an automatic in no matter what, and it did get into CDG so it's not a completely out-of-nowhere getting nothing in the Guilds nod like "Little Women" was, but "Cyrano" getting into Costumes and nothing else is just odd. That movie should've been more of a player; I had Peter Dinklage as a possible Best Actor nominee not too long ago before it was clear he wasn't getting in, but they apparently had a really bad and late rollout for that film; I'm impressed and somewhat baffled that it got in here. Not that costumes have always cared that much; they've got their own bit of Makeup & Hairstyling don't-give-a-fuck-ness to them, but this was still odd.

Don't Look Up-Hank Corwin
*Dune-Joe Walker
King Richard-Pamela Martin
*The Power of the Dog-Peter Sciberras
tick, tick...BOOM!-Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

OUCH! I did terrible in this category. Well, "Belfast" not getting in, is a very bad sign for Best Picture. I still have it number two, but this is a bad very bad sign; only "Birdman..." in recent years has won Best Picture without an Editing nomination, and that movie didn't have much editing. I guess "King Richard' makes sense; I took a shot on "Licorice Pizza" instead, but I did note that I had "King Richard" sixth, and I mentioned "Don't Look Up" as having a good shot being a comedy. However, apparently the editors just did not like "West Side Story". They nominated "tick, tick...BOOM!" at the Eddie, instead of "West Side Story" and they nominated it here. It's the film's only other nomination after Andrew Garfield. It's not unprecedented for something that's not in Best Picture to win, but a musical, without a Best Picture nomination.... good lord, eh... I mean, "Chicago" was the last musical to win the category, but that won Best Picture, but last time one even got in with a Best Picture nominations was-eh...- (Google search) I guess "The Commitments" in '91! Man, that's thirty. And winning the Editing Oscar without a BP nomination, for a musical, ummm, yeah,  that's never happened. 

*Coming 2 America-Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
Cruella-Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
*Dune-Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
*The Eyes of Tammy Faye-Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
*House of Gucci-Goran Lundstron, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

So, this is where "House of Gucci" got in, makeup? (Shrugs) Whatever, this Oscar season has just been strange all around. Sorry Gaga. At least your hairstylist got nominated; she's only the second Asian to be nominated in the category, really?! Wow! Just Frederic Aspiras and Kazuhiro!? Wow. Anyway, I did predict it, and I had "Coming 2 America", 'cause Eddie Murphy movies get in here,- I thought "Cruella" might've been stronger in Costumes then Makeup, so I went with "The Suicide Squad" instead, which, eh, that was hubris on my part. I've just been angry that I got talked out of nominated it back when it won. Like, seriously people, if it's a worthy craft nomination, don't act like it's an embarrassment, even if the movie is that frickin' terrible, for getting nominated. Save that anger for undeserved nominations. As far as I can tell, this all seems pretty solid. I don't know who the favorite is right now; I imagine "The Eyes of Tammy Faye" seem like the obvious pick, but we'll see. The Makeup and Hair people, don't give a fuck and we love them for it. 

*Don't Look Up-Nicholas Britell
*Dune-Hans Zimmer
*Encanto-Germaine Franco
Parallel Mothers-Alberto Iglesias
*The Power of the Dog-Jonny Greenwood

Another one I'm kinda kicking myself on, 'cause I thought about "Parallel Mothers" for a minute, but I couldn't see it getting in, without seeing it get into other categories, and once I decided to leave Penelope Cruz and more importantly, Almodovar out for any of his categories, I just decided to go with "The French Dispatch..." instead. I guess, not the biggest surprise here, but eh, I had given it a little more thought.... I don't know who the favorite is here, it's basically been Hans Zimmer and Jonny Greenwood alternating wins for most of award season. I have Zimmer right now, but I could see it going either way, with Nicholas Britell as a possible spoiler. Did you know Zimmer hasn't won since "The Lion King"? I don't know why that stuns me, but it does.

"Down to Joy"-Belfast
    Music/Lyrics: Van Morrison
*"Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto
    Music/Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda
"Somehow You Do"-Four Good Days
*"Be Alive"-King Richard
    Music/Lyrics: DIXSON and Beyonce Knowles-Carter
*"No Time to Die"-No Time to Die
    Music/Lyrics: Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell

Oh boy, a lot to unpack here. Let's start with Beyonce getting in, but not Jay-Z or Kid Cudi. Cudi had a couple chances, and personally Jay-Z's song "Guns Go Bang" from "The Harder They Fall" was my favorite of the shortlist and I thought would get in. Beyonce does get her first nomination and to be fair, it's one of her better songs. She's not the favorite necessarily though, we got some tough competition. The James Bond them "No Time to Die" from Billie Eilish is up and that nomination was expected, and I would say she's the current favorite, especially since the song from "Encanto" isn't that "We Don't Talk About Bruno" one that apparently is like a huge hit. I do like the song that did get nominated, it's entirely in Spanish, which isn't unprecedented by the way, the title track to "Never on Sunday" won and that song was in Greek, and as for Spanish, the song "Al Otro Lado Del Rio" won for "The Motorcycle Diaries", so Lin-Manuel could win, and if he does, that would give him the EGOT. He's only the Oscar short; he didn't win for the song from "Moana" a few years ago. I doubt this'll be his only opportunity, and hell, he directed "tick...tick...BOOM!" which is up for a couple award. Man, the guy's like, responsible for basically bringing back the musical, isn't he?! So, I had those three, I missed the Jay-Z song, and I also had the song from "Don't Look Up" getting in, which, would've given Ariana Grande a nomination, but instead, eh, well, they went a different direction, and we gotta talk about both of these. 
(Deep breath)
Okay, so "Down to Joy" from "Belfast" got in, and earned the legendary, great Northern Irish soul singer Van Morrison his first ever Oscar nominations. Now normally, I would be happy. It's a really good song that I would've had as the sixth choice, he's a rock and roll Hall of Famer responsible for some of the best music of the twentieth century. (And "Astral Weeks" is one of the greatest albums ever made) However, in the last couple years, he's become an anti-vax Covid conspiracist who's been recording right-wing conspiracy songs with Eric Clapton, and seems to have just gone completely off-the-rocker in his old age. So, this is gonna be very interesting in whatever they decide to do with the performances. It's also quite depressing; you hear this about the guy and suddenly, you don't want to dance to "Crazy Love" at weddings anymore. 

The thing is though, this is a good song, and technically, on the basis of merits, a very good nomination. The other nominee though...- "Somehow You Do", from "Four Good Days"? I heard this song, and despite the fact that it did pop in a few important pre-cursors, I immediately put it at the bottom of the shortlist. The version I heard was by Reba McEntire, and she's a good singer, but this was a very boring and forgettable performance from a movie that-, what movie even is this? Is this another one of those religious movies I have to watch now? (IMDB search) Oh, Rodrigo Garcia directed this? I like him. Mila Kunis, Glenn Close,- this actually looks pretty good,- well, now I'm wondering what I haven't heard of this movie, but nonetheless, a movie no one's heard of. How did this piece get nominated!? Who wrote this slow, slithering, droll of a pseudo-inspirational ballad anyway?! I forgot to list it earlier.... (Oscar search)

Music/Lyrics: Diane Warren


Of course it was hers. Congratulation Ms. Warren, you will lose for a 13th time at these Oscars. God, you are the most aggravating songwriter of all-time! If you don't know her work, well you do, but you just don't know it's her; she's been writing hit songs for, literally everybody, for like, the last 40 years, and she is either the most amazing pop song writer of all-time, or the most bland, generic and annoying songwriter of all-time, depending on what song of hers you're listening to. (And sometimes and often, it can be the same exact song that's both of these things) I think this is among her worst. I'm still cheering for her, but I don't agree with this one. It's probably the worst song she's been nominated for honestly. It's still not awful, but...- I don't know, maybe I just don't like Reba singing it. Maybe somebody else. Anybody else take a crack at this song?


Oh, dear Christ!!!!! 

Nevermind, let's move on.

    Production Design: Patrice Vermette
    Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
*Nightmare Alley
    Production Design: Tamara Deverell
    Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
The Power of the Dog
    Production Design: Grant Major
    Set Decoration: Amber Richards
*The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Production Design: Stefan Dechant
    Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
*West Side Story
    Production Design: Adam Stockhausen
    Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

Boy they did not like "The French Dispatch..."; I thought it was the favorite to win this category. That, and they really must like "The Power of the Dog"; that didn't even get in at ADG. The Set Decorators nominated it, but yeah, if that could get in here, then they just like the movie, and it's more evidence that this is the Best Picture favorite.

Belfast-Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
*Dune-Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
*No Time to Die-Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
The Power of the Dog-Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, Tara Webb
*West Side Story-Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy

Well, I had "Belfast" out because that missed the CAS, the Sound Editors, but it got in at the Sound Mixers. BTW, I'm still not loving how we've shoved Sound Editing and Sound Mixing back together; I mean, I get it, but I don't really get it. I guess that's pretty beloved, and so is "The Power of the Dog". The other one I missed on was "A Quiet Place Part II", which eh,- well that got three noms at the Golden Reels, but it did miss the CASs, which, kinda makes sense now that I think about it. Of course, the mixers would hate it, it's mostly ambience. Eh, I should've thought that one through. 

*Dune-Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Free Guy-Swen Gillberg, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
No Time to Die-Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
*Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings-Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
*Spider-Man: No Way Home-Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick

I don't have much to say on this one. Dan Sudick's got two nominations, which give him 12 overall, but he's yet to win, so that's something. He's nominated for "Free Guy" and "Spider-Man...". Some people are apparently upset that "Spider-Man..." didn't get into Best Picture, because of how popular it was and how much money it made, and apparently the word is that it's a good movie. I haven't seen it yet, but-eh, well, maybe it is. Based on my experiences with the previous Spider-Man films, all, 47 of them I think they've made, I seriously doubt it, but who knows. Maybe they did something different for this one. I hope they didn't try to regurgitate elements from the previous ones though; that would really suck. Um, anyway, eh, James Bond, two Marvel films, um, what sounds like they accidentally nominated a video game, and a Best Picture nominee. Yeah, "Dune" is probably winning this. Except for that weird "Ex Machina" year, the BP, or the film most likely to have been a BP nominated-feature in the category is usually the winner. 

*Affairs of the Art-Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
Bestia-Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Diaz
Boxballet-Anton Dyakov
*Robin Robin-Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
The Windshield Wiper-Albert Mielgo and Leo Sanchez

(Sigh) I hate when I screw up the shorts. It's not entirely my fault, I didn't see three of these nominees, "Affairs of the Art", although I did predict that one, "Bestia" and "Boxballet", which I had in originally, and took it out later; dammit. Also, I'm annoyed that I didn't trust my instinct on "The Windshield Wiper" which was my favorite of the ones I did see. I had "Us Again", which was the Pixar submission, that was a shocking miss, "The Musician" and "Step Into the River", which, eh, "The Musician" I probably should've rethought; "Step Into the River" I liked. I gotta go back to trusting my instincts on the best animated ones in the future.

Audible-Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean
*Lead Me Home-Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk
*The Queen of Basketball-Ben Proudfoot
Three Songs for Benazir-Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
*When We Were Bullies-Jay Rosenblatt

Despite getting three of these, I feel like I did lousy on this one. Basically, I bet on the New York Times over Netflix. I had three from the Times getting in, taking "The Queen of Basketball" along with "Day of Rage" which, I'm- well, I guess I get why that wasn't nominated, but I still kinda wish it was, and "Takeover" which I think got robbed. Netflix, on top of "Lead Me Home", which I think was the best they had, got in "Audible", which was interesting and "Three Songs for Benazir", which I thought was one of the weakest of the shortlist myself. Maybe I'm just a New York Times intellectual though. I mean, I am in a few Times-based FB groups. 

*Ala Kachuu-Take and Run-Maria Brendle and Nadine Luchinger
The Dress-Tadeusz Lysiak and Maciej Slesicki
*The Long Goodbye-Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
On My Mind-Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
Please Hold-K.D. Davila and Levin Menekse

Another time where I decided to just go against my instincts. I thought "The Dress" was one of the best of the shortlist, left it off anyway; that was dumb. I'm glad I called "Ala Kachuu..." though; that was not a favorite on Gold Derby, I got 37-1 odds predicting that one. (With that and 54-1 on "Affairs of the Art" in animation, that helped my scores, not as much as I needed though. We'll get to that in a minute.) "The Long Goodbye" gives Riz Ahmed a nomination, and, there's a history of- well, it's not entirely 100%, Kenneth Branagh for instance, once lost this category for a short, but-eh, usually if there's a big Hollywood person, not even nominated, but just remotely attached to a project in this category, it'll get in and likely win, so I have that as the favorite right now.

Alright, how'd I do? Well, I went, 85/120, so, not bad, 70%. Well, it's better then normal, so I'm settling for that this year. Alright, the Oscars are on March 27th, they're hosted this year by, um, somebody named TBA? Never heard of him. Hopefully it's a good show this year. 

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