Saturday, September 19, 2015

2015 PRIMETIME EMMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS, THOUGHTS AND PREFERENCES!



Happy Primetime Emmys Eve, Everybody!

I know, I normally do a bit about how I've never made any incorrect Emmy predictions normally here, just...- well, mostly I just like to do it 'cause I like to occasionally play the lying, obnoxious pro wrestling manager villain, but since I'm still struggling to even get online half the time anymore, and unfortunately I won't be able to do an immediately after Emmy Awards analysis blog Sunday night after the show, eh, I just don't feel like it this year. I'll do it for the Oscars or something. I will do my analysis of the Emmys analysts, as soon as I can. I am still catching up on everything else, and while I thought that everything would be back to normal by tomorrow's Emmys, ugh, (sigh) well, anyway. We have an exciting Emmys and I'm going to go over every major category and make my predictions, for the broadcast tomorrow. (I'll throw in a few other predictions I made before the Creative Arts Emmys as well. Normally I would do more, but ugh.) Anyway, let's go category-by-category and I hope I help all of you in your pools. :)


COMEDY SERIES
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Louie-FX Networks
Modern Family-ABC
Parks and Recreation-NBC
Silicon Valley-HBO
Transparent-Amazon Instant Video
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt-Netflix
Veep-HBO

All signs point to this finally, being the year that "Modern Family" will fall, although we've said that before.... Still, it looks like most are predicting "Veep", to become the first cable series to win in this category since "Sex and the City", with possibly an upset coming from "Transparent", which will certainly piss off Netflix if they get the first internet series win before they do. "Parks and Recreation", despite not getting into the category for the last five years before this nomination, but there is a greater voting public than before, especially in the series categories, so it's possible that it could pull off an upset, since clearly it got in for it's last season, and it's been curiously overlooked for most of the series. This would be a good sendoff and an F.U. to the Emmys previous system, but it's still unlikely. "Silicon Valley" did get into directing and editing this year, (Another sign that "Modern Family" is out of the running, since they didn't show up in either.) so you can't overlook them, but I can't remember the last time a series won without an acting nomination of any kind. If there's a real dark horse, "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt" could pull off the upset, with Tina Fey's Emmy history, plus the show is likely to get at least one acting win, but it would be a big upset if that happened. Emmys are unpredictable this year, but this seems like a safe bet.

PREDICTION: "Veep"
PREFERENCE: "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"


OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Anthony Anderson-"black-ish"-ABC
Louis C.K.-"Louie"-FX Networks
Will Forte-"The Last Man on Earth"-FOX
Don Cheadle-"House of Lies"-Showtime
Matt LeBlanc-"Episodes"-Showtime
William H. Macy-"Shameless"-Showtime"
Jeffrey Tambor-"Transparent"-Amazon Instant Video

There's been some talk this year about a theory going around that certain people continue to get nominated because alphabetically they appear at the top of their list of nominees and therefore people who show up later in the alphabet will likely get screwed over. (The Comedy Supporting Actress category is really where this shows up, we'll get to that) This also means, that, if somebody from that bottom half of the alphabet does get in, than it's probable that you should look towards them as possible winners, since they had to look for the name. And, Jeffrey Tambor has been the favorite since he won the Golden Globe and this is the most likely spot for them to honor "Transparent", etc. etc. With the exception of Anthony Anderson, there's a bunch of the regular also-ran names like Cheadle, LeBlanc. C.K. and Macy, and it's quite unlikely for any of them to win. Will Forte's the only possible person who can pull off the upset. "The Last Man on Earth" got in for Comedy Directing and Comedy Writing, the only show to get nominated in both those categories without a Series nomination, and his episode, the pilot of the show, is basically a one-man show performance. It's show strange that it's almost impossible not to vote for it, and I didn't even particularly like the show. And yes, I still contend that Jim Parsons should be nominated and should win; he had about five or six great episodes this year. I don't care if he's won too much before, if he puts his name in, he should be in.

PREDICTION: Jeffrey Tambor-"Transparent"
PREFERENCE: Will Forte-"The Last Man on Earth"


OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Edie Falco-"Nurse Jackie"-Showtime
Lisa Kudrow-"The Comeback"-HBO
Julia Louis-Dreyfus-"Veep"-Showtime
Amy Poehler-"Parks and "Recreations"-NBC
Amy Schumer-"Inside Amy Schumer"-Comedy Central
Lily Tomlin-"Grace and Frankie"-Netflix

Okay, as far as I'm concerned, Amy Poehler better win this year. It's bullshit that she hasn't won, yet, for anything, (She's now up to 17 total nominations without a win; I-eh, I have no idea how that's happened btw) but they went through the process of nominating the show out of nowhere, it seems ridiculous for her not to win. Falco, last year, won before, Kudrow, back in the category, won years ago for "Friends", "The Comeback", has a popular cult following, although I doubt it has more appeal than that, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, has more Emmys than God at this point, and has won three straight now, Amy Schumer is just as likely to win in one of her other categories, so there's no need for her to win here, and Lily Tomlin is probably half-nominated because she's a legend who's also on the Board of Directors for the Emmys and she has an insane amount of clout. Well-deserved clout, sure, but while the Supporting Actress Comedy has eight nominees due to the 2% rule and this loaded category, has the minimum of six, leaving off people like Ellie Kemper for "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt" and Lena Dunham for "Girls", among many others and this is easily the more competitive and most frustrating category around. Well, any one of them can win this, most of the experts are going with Louis-Dreyfus again, probably figuring that until she's beat, keep picking her, plus this does seem to be "Veep"'s year. (Shrugs) Maybe, I think it's clearly between her, Poehler and Schumer, who are getting most of the upset votes, at least on Gold Derby. Schumer's the it girl of the moment, and she can ride the wave of her movie into an Emmy perhaps, a la Melissa McCarthy a couple years ago, (Another one who was also not nominated) but I'm thinking that's a bit of a stretch to be honest. While a sketch show shows more range, until somebody in modern times wins in one of these categories for a performance, I think you gotta hold off on predicting.

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE: Amy Poehler-"Parks and Recreation"
C'mon, Emmys, just fucking do it right for once!


OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Andre Braugher-"Brooklyn Nine-Nine"-FOX
Tituss Burgess-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"-Netflix
Ty Burrell-"Modern Family"-ABC
Adam Driver-"Girls"-HBO
Tony Hale-"Veep"-HBO
Keegan-Michael Key-"Key & Peele"-Comedy Central

Holy hell, Gold Derby is all over the map her. The Experts seem to be leaning more towards Tony Hale winning for a second time, apparently he has the episode this year, but Tituss Burgess, is the heavy favorite from everybody else. It is noteworthy that while supporting players on "30 Rock" would get nominated occasionally, they rarely won. A few Guest Actors/Actresses I think would win, but it is odd that there's such a discrepancy. Ty Burrell's won the award twice now and now he's the only entry for "Modern Family" this year, which just seems ridiculous. I genuinely don't see how the Emmys can continually single out the same performers on that show, when it's such an ensemble; it's ridiculous that Jesse Tyler Ferguson had five nominations and never won, it's ridiculous that Ed O'Neill has never won, for anything in his career, Sofia Vergara on the female side, and hell, while I'm at it, the kids are just as good as the adults as well. Why isn't Ariel Winter ever nominated for instance? I'm not even a fan of the show, but, ugh! It just seems stranger every time I think about it. Anyway, notice the alphabet again, Key, K, the lowest alphabetic name nominated. Hmm. Keegan-Michael Key's nomination is cool and very surprising, nice to see him get in, and I am glad they recognized Adam Driver again, despite the otherwise complete overlook of "Girls". BTW, all the talk in the Supporting Actress Drama Category and the possibilities of an African-American winner, there's three nominated in this category, that's never happened before and no African-American has won since Robert Guillaume on "Soap", and if you discount Andre Braugher, there hasn't been an African-American nominee since Meshach Taylor in '89, for "Designing Women"! That stat is unbelievable. Anyway, tough category this year.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE-Tituss Burgess-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"


OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Mayim Bialik-"The Big Bang Theory"-CBS
Julie Bowen-"Modern Family"-ABC
Anna Chlumsky-"Veep"-HBO
Gaby Hoffman-"Transparent"-Amazon Instant Video
Allison Janney-"Mom"-CBS
Jane Krakowski-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"-Netflix
Kate McKinnon-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Niecy Nash-"Getting On"-HBO

You know what the amazing thing with this category is? There's still some major names left off! I know, it looks like they got everybody, but, Merritt Weaver's name is conspicuously absent; I heard from more than one source that she had the best of her career for "Nurse Jackie". Krakowski got in, although Carol Kane didn't for "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt", Judith Light got overlooked for Gaby Hoffman for "Transparent", and how about, absolutely nobody ever got nominated in either Supporting Actor category for "Parks and Recreation"! No Plaza, no Nick Offerman for the men? What the-!? Nobody from "Girls", not even Alison Williams who had some great episodes this year? Nobody from "Modern Family" other than Bowen, nobody from "The Big Bang Theory" other than Bialik, who I gotta admit, I was shocked she got nominated this year; she really didn't have an episode this year. (Weird, the year Parsons had about eight great episodes that he should've won for, he's scrapped, but Bialik gets in, with barely anything.) Again, I suspect the alphabetize list probably had a lot to do with these things, although I'm thoroughly impressed anybody even watched "Getting On", although I'm glad to see Niecy Nash got in. Anyway, this category is a mess, and I can legitimately make an argument for any of them winning, although I think most are projecting either Alison Janney to get another win for "Mom", or for Anna Chlumsky to get a win for "Veep". Both make sense, Janney's won in crowded overblown fields before, and had repeat wins in those situations before, plus Janney's just so well-respected and honored that she's gonna get singled out no matter what. Chlumsky hasn't won yet for "Veep" and this was apparently her best yet. It also seems odd that somebody would win in this crowded a field for a show that otherwise is ignored everywhere else.

PREDICTION: Anna Chlumsky-"Veep"
PREFERENCE: Gaby Hoffman-'Transparent"


OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Mel Brooks-"The Comedians"-FX Networks
Louis C.K.-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Paul Giamatti-"Inside Amy Schumer"-Comedy Central
Bill Hader-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Jon Hamm-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"-Netflix
Bradley Whitford-"Transparent"-Amazon Instant Video

I think I'm probably the only one who predicted Paul Giamatti getting nominated for "Inside Amy Schumer"'s "12 Angry Men" parody episode so kudos for that. Also, Mel Brooks, I think holds the record for most wins in this category, he won the award three years in a row in the '90s for "Mad About You", and he's gotten nominated this year for "The Comedians", which was just cancelled. It's always a little usual for the SNL hosts to be favorites here, and Bill Hader has an outside shot at winning. That said, pretty much every expert has this a two-man race between Jon Hamm and Bradley Whitford. Hamm, especially, has never won yet, despite an 8th consecutive nomination for "Mad Men", and with the Emmys being notorious for not caring about things like that in recent years, it's possible that he can still lose in that category, so there's a push to make sure he wins for something. Also, I'm making these predictions, currently a few weeks before the Emmys, and before the Creative Arts Emmys, so I won't be cheating here with these or any of the other Creative Arts categories that I'm predicting. That said, I can't imagine Jon Hamm not winning this for his amazing work on "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt", this is a brilliant comedic performance in a very important role that he absolutely needed to be perfect in.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Jon Hamm-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
WINNER: Bradley Whitford-"Transparent"


OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Pamela Adlon-"Louie"-FX Networks
Elizabeth Banks-"Modern Family"-ABC
Christine Baranski-"The Big Bang Theory"-CBS
Joan Cusack-"Shameless"-Showtime
Tina Fey-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"-Netflix
Gaby Hoffman-"Girls"-HBO

I'll be honest, I'm a little shocked that Tina Fey is not only nominated, but apparently the favorite to win for her part on "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt". I mean, she's funny and it's a funny joke who she's parodying, but I kinda thought, "Wow, that's a 20-year-old reference, nice small part for her to play." I just was a little surprised that this part's gotten recognized. Anyway, no "SNL" nominee here, 'cause for some reason, "SNL" didn't put up a female host for nomination this year, which-eh, somebody oughta get fired for btw, but there's some good nominations here. I'd like to see Gaby Hoffman win for her work in "Girls" and she's got a great episode, but I have a suspicion she's not a favorite here. (Besides I do like her work in "Transparent" better) Pamela Adlon's nominee is really the one I'm smiling at, she's been nominated as a writer for "Louie", but she's really great on that show and let's not forget that she never got nominated for all the crazy shit she did on "Californication", so I'd like to see her get in too. Joan Cusack's been nominated regularly every year for "Shameless" even when the show was submitted into Drama Series, so it seems possible that she'll win this category eventually. I don't know though, I'm kinda underwhelmed by the nominees overall in this category, so who knows who gets in here.

PREDICTION: Tina Fey-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
PREFERENCE: Pamela Adlon-"Louie"
WINNER: Joan Cusack-"Shameless"


OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
The Last Man on Earth-"Alive in Tucson (Pilot)-Phil Lord & Christopher Miller-FOX
Louie-"Sleepover"-Louis C.K.-FX Networks
Silicon Valley-"Sand Hill Shuffle"-Mike Judge-HBO
Transparent-"Best New Girl"-Jill Soloway-Amazon Instant Video
Veep-"Testimony"-Armando Ianucci-HBO

Whew, tough category. Presuming that Louis C.K. is just, in general better at winning in Writing, which has seemed to the case, and that "Silicon Valley" is probably an also-ran, (Maybe I'll go that show another shot, but I generally kinda just get frustrated watching it, most of the time). then it's a very close 3-show race between, "Transparent", "Veep" and "The Last Man on Earth". "Veep" and "Transparent". Soloway and Ianucci are the creators of their respective shows and both are nominated for Writing as well, and are the favorites to win. "The Last Man on Earth", is up for their pilot episode and was directed by Phil Lord & Christopher Miller, the directing team behind the "21 Jump Street" films and "The LEGO Movie", and the Emmys do have a small habit of honoring film directors for going into film, although Jodie Foster's loss in this category last year was an exception, although that might've been an anti- "Orange is the New Black" thing for them submitting into Comedy Series. Plus, it's also a very director-y episode, the Pilot for the series, this is also the one that Will Forte is nominated for both acting and writing as he's got a legitimate shot at winning in both those categories, especially acting. "The Last Man on Earth" is such a strange anomaly of a show, plus it's nominated in every major category, except series, that it's possible for it to win anywhere. Still though, the fact that it didn't get the nominee for Series, was 2008, and that was Barry Sonnenfeld winning for "Pushing Daisies", which is another show directed by a known film director, as well as for a show that was so strange that it screws up normal predictions, so, yeah, Miller & Lord can win this.

PREDICTION: "The Last Man on Earth"-Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
PREFERENCE: "Transparent"-Jill Soloway


OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Episodes-"Episode 409"-David Crane and Jeffrey Klarik-Showtime
The Last Man on Earth-"Alive in Tucson (Pilot)"-Will Forte-FOX
Louie-"Bobby's House"-Louie C.K.-FX Networks
Silicon Valley-"Two Days of the Condor"-Alec Berg-HBO
Transparent-"Pilot"-Jill Soloway-Amazon Instant Video
Veep-"Election Night"-Teleplay: Story: Armando Ianucci; Story/Teleplay: Simon Blackwell and Tony Roche-HBO

Okay, there's six nominees in this writing category, which returns me to my other favorite complaint about the Emmys, WHY THE FUCK IS THERE STILL A 5 NOMINEE MINIMUM ON WRITING AND DIRECTING SERIES CATEGORIES! You extended Series, to 7 +2% rule, you extended acting to 6 + 2%, (Which should also be 7 btw) but Writing and Directing of EPISODES, is just 5! Seriously? Why is this not fixed yet?! (Frustrated Sigh) Anyway, "Louie" and "Silicon Valley" are most unlikely. "Episodes"'s somehow manages to keep sinking into writing categories, but it's a good show. I can't imagine "The Last Man on Earth" winning here, it's a well-written pilot, but writing is not the strength of that episode. It's pretty much between "Transparent" and "Veep". Most of the Gold Derby experts, pretty unanimously think "Transparent"'s gonna take this, which is probably why I'm predicting it, although I kinda have a suspicion that this is where "Veep" would win. If "Veep" does win this or directing, than definitely presume they'll win Series.

PREDICTION: "Transparent"-Jill Soloway
PREFERENCE: "Louie"-Louie C.K.


DRAMA SERIES
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul-AMC
Downton Abbey-PBS
Game of Thrones-HBO
Homeland-Showtime
House of Cards-Netflix
Mad Men-AMC
Orange is the New Black-Netflix

Okay, this is a dead split on Gold Derby, between "Game of Thrones" and "Mad Men". "Better Call Saul" is probably the only other show I can really see pulling off an upset here, and that's a real longshot. "Homeland" pulled off the rare feat of coming back into a nomination after missing last year, so it's probably unlikely that they get in here. "Orange is the New Black", is also of course the first show to get nominated for both Drama and Comedy Series, and with only 4 nominations total, it's particularly unlikely for them to win. "Downton Abbey" and "House of Cards" are basically just perpetual nominees in general. So, "Game of Thrones" becoming the first fantasy series to win, in it's fifth season, or "Mad Men" setting the record with a fifth Drama Series victory, breaking their tie with "Hill Street Blues", "L.A. Law" and "The West Wing", and becoming another in a suddenly long line of shows winning this category in their final seasons. Hmm, until a show wins their 5th for Drama Series, I'm not gonna predict it.

PREDICTION: "Game of Thrones"
PREFERENCE: "Mad Men"


OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Kyle Chandler-"Bloodline"-Netflix
Jeff Daniels-"The Newsroom"-AMC
Jon Hamm-"Mad Men"-AMC
Bob Odenkirk-"Better Call Saul"-AMC
Liev Schreiber-"Ray Donovan"-Showtime
Kevin Spacey-"House of Cards"-Netflix

Liev Schreiber's nomination here is just bizarre. Not that "Ray Donovan" isn't good, I actually enjoy it, but it's never noticed except for Jon Voight's performance at most awards, and here, Schreiber got in and bizarre Voight didn't. Huh? It's particularly weird if you believe the alphabet conspiracy, so this anomaly strikes me as particularly off. That said, the momentum is behind Jon Hamm, to finally win "Mad Men" an acting award. Of course, there's every footstep in his way. Not only is Bob Odenkirk nominated for "Better Call Saul", the spinoff of "Breaking Bad" which has four wins over Hamm in this category, but Jeff Daniels has a great episode of "The Newsroom" and he's won before, and oh, Kyle Chandler of all people, who infamously pulled off a huge upset over Hamm for the finale over "Friday Night Lights" over "The Suitcase" episode that is widely regarded as Hamm's best performance in the series. I doubt enough people saw "Bloodline" yet, but I think Chandler's threat of a win is unlikely. If there's an upset, it'll probably be Odenkirk, or maybe Schreiber, 'cause that nomination's so bizarre, I have to believe there's something to it, but, I think everybody wants to see Jon Hamm win. "Mad Men"'s acting nominations curse, will stop this year!

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Jon Hamm-"Mad Men"


OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Claire Danes-"Homeland"-Showtime
Viola Davis-"How to Get Away with Murder"-ABC
Taraji P. Henson-"Empire"-FOX
Tatiana Maslany-"Orphan Black"-BBC America
Elisabeth Moss-"Mad Men"-AMC
Robin Wright-"House of Cards"-Netflix

Okay, this is a category that's just tricky. The two favorites according to most experts, are the three with the shows that have the least amount of nominations, apparently. Anyway, Viola Davis has been the heavy favorite, pretty much since day one, but I gotta be honest, as much as I love her, I can't stand "How to Get Away with Murder". That could've been a good show, it was a bit like, "House" with the law, but then they do all the stupid shit, add a mystery, flash forward, flashback, everybody oooh, has a secret, or whatever-the-fuck, it's annoying and frustrating and I am sick and tired of this kind of storytelling. I know, it's been around for awhile, but it shouldn't be the focus. JJ Abrams can't help himself. Survivors of a plane crash having to survive on an island, that wasn't enough, there had to be a bunch of other shit? You know why "The X-Files" holds up even though they did a lot of that crap too? Because that's not what the show was about. It was "Law & Order" with aliens instead of murder, it was a detective show. Sure, they found ways to throw stuff in, but it wasn't the center key of the show; television is simple. Overbearing husband in over his wife, fighting with his smarter but loving hot wife, it's worked since "The Honeymooners" and we've never needed it more complicated than that. If you can't build drama or tension with the simple base idea you have, without having to throw in but the kitchen sink, then you don't have a fucking show! (Deep breath) Sorry, but I needed this rant, 'cause nothing frustrates me more when I see legitimately good show idea ruined because somebody doesn't understand what the actual tension, whether dramatic or comedic is and should be and instead adds everything to hide the fact that they don't know what to do with the show. (I've done this rant on "2 Broke Girl$" more times than I can count) It's something that's could've been good, instead, Viola Davis is the only thing that show is worth talking about and mostly I just feel sorry that she's not on a better show. Okay, now that that's over with, I still think it's between the two new nominees, I'm leaning towards Taraji P. Henson, but this is an uphill climb for her, people just don't acting awards in soap operas. The last time somebody did was "Dallas", and no, it wasn't Larry Hagman bizarrely enough, it was Barbara Bel Geddes who won for Supporting Actress, and frankly that's only because she was and is a legend, and "Empire" really underperformed, only getting three total nominees, and the other two were in costume design. It got ignored in Music; the Emmys are not fond of honoring their guilty pleasures. (And no, I'm not counting Felicity Huffman's win for "Desperate Housewives", 'cause that was for a comedy, a satire of the soap opera genre) And also, don't kill me, I haven't seen "Orphan Black" yet. I will get to it, eventually, I swear, but I hear she's impressive, and could quite possibly win this, just based on the sheer amount of acting ability it takes for Maslany to do that show. But, I think the Academy wants to honor an African-American, which, this category has never given the award too, the only question is, which one, the guilty pleasure character from a very good actress, with film and TV credentials (Henson was on "Boston Legal" for a couple seasons) or to the truly great actress for a TV show that's not a guilty pleasure and is just mostly an ugly unwatchable thing that happens to have a lot of speeches and long monologues that actors do in fact know is incredibly difficult to perform. Hmm. Well, I was gonna predict either Henson or Davis, but the more I look at this category.... I don't know, I think the votes might be split, or not there. Although, they could've given this award to Kerry Washington multiple times over the years, even Diahann Carroll threatened them if they didn't and they still gave it to Claire Danes. Yeah, two obligatory nominations for show they don't like, or somebody great and respected in a show that's respected and good? Yeah, can wait a little longer to award an African-American, I think.

PREDICTION: Robin Wright-"House of Cards"
PREFERENCE: Elisabeth Moss-"Mad Men"


OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jonathan Banks-"Better Call Saul"-AMC
Jim Carter-"Downton Abbey"-PBS
Alan Cumming-"The Good Wife"-CBS
Peter Dinklage-"Game of Thrones"-AMC
Michael Kelly-"House of Cards"-Netflix
Ben Mendelsohn-"Bloodline"-Netflix

Michael Kelly's nomination is a pretty nice surprise actually, but it's pretty unlikely for him to win. I'm not gonna predict a "House of Cards" acting win until I see it, especially for a Supporting Role. Dinklage, believe it or not is the only nominee who's ever won in this category and if this is "Game of Thrones" year, you have to believe at some point they'd win an acting awards, although "Mad Men" has disproved that four times before. Ben Mendelsohn, might be a possible upset for "Bloodline", we really don't have a good read on just how much the Academy likes that show or not, so, eh. While, I'm always weary of Jim Carter finally pulling through and winning for "Downton Abbey", I think it's pretty safe bet that they want to honor Jonathan Banks. He was nominated a couple years ago for "Breaking Bad", he's been a great character actor for years, who got his first Emmy nomination for "Wiseguy", way back in '89. They seem to like "Better Call Saul," and this is the clear place to honor it.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Jonathan Banks-"Better Call Saul"


OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Uzo Aduba-"Orange is the New Black"-Netflix
Christine Baranski-"The Good Wife"-CBS
Emilia Clarke-"Game of Thrones"-HBO
Joanne Froggatt-"Downton Abbey"-PBS
Lena Headey-"Game of Thrones"-HBO
Christina Hendricks-"Mad Men"-AMC

Going into this category, pretty much everybody had perennial obligatory nominee Maggie Smith, coming in and getting an easy win. Something happened 'cause she somehow missed the nomination. Hmm. Two "Game of Thrones" nominations in this category, which believe it or not, usually means that somebody from that show will be the winner since voters will hypothetically be able to get to see both performers twice essentially. I know, strange, that's directly opposite btw, of the Oscars rule where usually they usually split the vote. That said, because of the episodes they chose, that might not be a guarantee this year; they seemed to really pick episodes whether the other wasn't in it, (And they apparently were only barely in it. That's the trouble with these multi-narrative series. Christine Baranski, I think they must think she has won more Emmys than she actually has, 'cause she keeps getting nominated, twice this year for here and a Guest Spot on "The Big Bang Theory", but she still has only one win, and that was for "Cybill", like 20 years ago. She deserves more, but.... (Shrugs) The returning winner in the category is Uzo Aduba, who won for Guest Actress in a Comedy Series for "Orange is the New Black", but now she's in for Supporting Actress for a Drama Series, 'cause of the new rule changes now. Plus, Joanne Froggatt was pretty much screwed over by having a guaranteed winning episode in the same year that nobody was gonna beat Anna Gunn last year. She might just win this year as a makeup. Also, there's a possibility that Christina Hendricks might finally win as well, she's got a good episode as well, and maybe the "Mad Men" acting curse could be broken with her. This category is all over the map on Gold Derby. Lena Headey is the favorite, but nobody's out of it, and it's not a runaway as the experts are all split on this one. Hmm. Tough category. 

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Christina Hendricks-"Mad Men"
Yes, I'm partially just hoping that somebody from "Mad Men" wins, but they're also genuinely my three favorite actors on the show as well.


OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
F. Murray Abraham-"Homeland"-Showtime
Alan Alda-"The Blacklist"-NBC
Beau Bridges-"Masters of Sex"-Showtime
Reg E. Cathay-"House of Cards"-Netflix
Michael J. Fox-"The Good Wife"-CBS
Pablo Schreiber-"Orange is the New Black"-Netflix

Beau Bridges won this category last year I believe for "Masters of Sex" another show that the Academy seems to like although it's difficult to tell, they seem to just miss out what would otherwise be obvious nominations. This is another category that's all over the map too. Alan Alda got in for "The Blacklist" a weird nomination for a network series not named "The Good Wife". There's that one other stat that every year somebody wins an acting Emmy for "The Good Wife" and there's always a possibility Michael J. Fox can collect another Emmy. My initial gut instinct would actually be F. Murray Abraham who seems to have been a big reason why "Homeland" had a turnaround season this year. Reg E. Cathay got a surprise Golden Globe nomination earlier this year, he could pull it off as well. Pablo Schreiber is also a peculiar nomination, I suspect that might be "Orange is the New Black" best shot at an Emmy also.

PREDICTION: F. Murray Abraham-"Homeland". What the hell, I'll take a shot at an upset on this one.
PREFERENCE: Beau Bridges-"Masters of Sex"
WINNER: Reg E. Cathay-"House of Cards"


OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Khandi Alexander-"Scandal"-ABC
Rachel Brosnahan-"House of Cards"-Netflix
Allison Janney-"Masters of Sex"-Showtime
Margo Martindale-"The Americans"-FX Networks
Diana Rigg -"Game of Thrones"-HBO
Cicely Tyson-"How to Get Away with Murder"-ABC

In an attempt to not obligatorily give every award to Allison Janney, it seems that Cicely Tyson is the suspected favorite here. I have some doubts, especially since she didn't win last time when it seemed obvious for the "The Trip to Bountiful" TV Movie, a role that had already won her a Tony. Margo Martindale is one of the only major nominees for "The Americans" and that nomination was apparently on name recognition, she's barely in the show this season and most people had Lois Smith getting in instead for the show. Although she had more screen time than Khandi Alexander, who I am happy has finally gotten nominated for something; I've been a fan of hers since "Newsradio", but even though "Scandal" has a way of pulling off a victory in these Guest categories, this seems unlikely. I think Tyson is prone for an upset here, but Janney can win this, Diana Rigg could easily win this, and actually I think Rachel Brosnahan, who's been amazing on "House of Cards" and really, her character's future has been a major crux of the show since the beginning, it's a good possibility that she can get the win here; kudos for them to nominate her.

PREDICTION: Allison Janney-"Masters of Sex"
PREFERENCE: Rachel Brosnahan-"House of Cards"
WINNER: Margo Martindale-"The Americans"
This has already gone down as one of the most shocking upsets in recent Emmy. Her episode, she apparently had two minutes of screen time.


OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
The Americans."Do Male Robots Dream of Electric Sheep?"-Joshua Brand-FX Networks
Better Call Saul,"Five-O"-Gordon Smith-AMC
Game of Thrones, "Mother's Mercy"-David Benioff and D.B. Weiss-HBO
Mad Men, "Lost Horizon"-Semi Challas and Matthew Weiner-AMC
Mad Men, "Person to Person"-Matthew Weiner-AMC

Barring a really out-of-nowhere upset, this seems to be between "Game of Thrones" and "Mad Men". "Mother's Mercy" and "Person to Person" are pretty much the biggest two episodes of any show this Emmys. "The Americans", if they got even one other major nomination, I might give that a shot at winning, but I'm just not seeing it offhand. This category has a habit of honoring major episodes of shows in their last season, and since it's probably more likely that "Game of Thrones" will win for Directing; it seems like a safe bet that Matthew Weiner will probably win for the "Mad Men" finally.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE-"Mad Men"-Matthew Weiner


OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Boardwalk Empire, "Eldorado"-Tim Van Patten-HBO
Game of Thrones,"Mother's Mercy"-David Nuttier-HBO
Game of Thrones, "Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken"-Jeremy Podeswa-HBO
Homeland-"From A to B and Back Again"-Lesli Linka Glatter-Showtime
The Knick-"Method and Madness"-Steven Soderbergh-Cinemax

I guess there's a chance they might honor Steven Soderbergh, the legendary film director who's recently permanently moved onto television, but he won recently for directing "Behind the Candelabra" and "The Knick"'s nomination, basically amounts to a nomination just because he's Soderbergh. (Although it does mark the first major nomination for Cinemax). "Boardwalk Empire"'s won in this category too and it was that show's final season as well. Tim Van Patten's won before, so maybe, but I doubt it.

PREDICTION: "Game of Thrones"-David Nuttier
PREFERENCE: "Boardwalk Empire"-Tim Van Patten


REALITY
OUTSTANDING REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race-CBS
Dancing with the Stars-ABC
Project Runway-Lifetime
So You Think You Can Dance-FOX
Top Chef-Bravo
The Voice-NBC

(Rubbing my forehead back and force in annoyance)
Look, I-eh, ugh. This category sucks. No, I'm not talking the nominees, actually with the exception of "Dancing with the Stars", I actually think that yes, even though it's been these same six for the last, whatever four years that, well, these are the ones that should be here. As much as we think Reality and more particular Reality-Competition has taken over the TV airwaves, the fact is, there aren't too many newer shows in the genre and most of the other mainstays, well, suck and they don't belong here. What are you gonna replace "Dancing with the Stars" with, "The Bachelorette"? "Big Brother"? "The Biggest Loser"? "America's Got Talent" "America's Next Top Model"? Hell, no! The Broadcast TV Critics, interestingly enough picked "Face/Off" a show about Special Effects Makeup, which, strangely isn't nominated here even though actually, that's actually a good idea for a show and would fit right in with these other shows. If it was on Bravo instead of Syfy, then yeah, maybe it'd show up here. But no, that's not what I'm frustrated about with this category. The frustration I have consists of how, the voters in this category have just all, basically decided that, there's nothing else but "The Amazing Race" and a bunch of also-rans. It's frustrating, it's annoying and it's just wrong. Look, I'm not against giving a show that's continuously good multiple Emmys year-after-year if they deserve it, but that's been mostly a fallback position for the Emmys whether that's true or not. "Modern Family" 5 in a rown, "Mad Men" 4 in a row wins, "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" 11 in a row, "The Amazing Race" however, has won this category, every year in it's existence, but two. "Top Chef" pulled off an upset, what seems like a decade ago, and two years ago "The Voice" got in and won. I'm not anti-reality television like a lot of people are, in fact I've defended it more often than most critics similar to myself, and I actually watch now or have watched most of these shows including "The Amazing Race", on a regular basis at some point in the shows' run. And I cannot explain anymore why this show has gone on this dominant run of this category and so dominantly as well. Sure, it has fans, I won't deny that, and it's good, I won't deny that, some of years it deserved to win, but at least with all those other shows that have gone on these runs, even "Modern Family", I can at least make an argument for why they do deserve their awards; I can't make it for "The Amazing Race". I really can't. I don't get it, at all, unless they're just filling in out of, what, I don't know, repetition or whatnot. Meanwhile, very quietly, the best reality competition show of all-time, "Project Runway", (Yes, it is, and I will fight anyone to the death on this!) has been nominated in this category 13 consecutive seasons, every year it's been on the air, 10 seasons, 13, now 14 runs of the series, and has lost every year and is now in dead last place on every Gold Derby predictor who are all basically predicting "The Amazing Race" again except for a few who are predicting "The Voice" because, well, they figure probably it's too easy to predict "The Amazing Race" again. And it's winning without even really analysis or debate. Now, I hope, hope, that with this new voting system, the wider variety of voters will come to their senses this year and start knocking down "The Amazing Race" and recognizing that it shouldn't just be penciled in every year. All this talk over how Jon Hamm hasn't won yet, how about how "Project Runway" hasn't won yet, it's on a bigger losing streak! And it's had one of it's best seasons last year, so did "Top Chef" as well, far better than "The Amazing Race" and "The Voice", one of which is just good but overrated and the other has become unwatchable after the opening rounds because other than that, they took away everything that made that show unlike "American Idol" before and now made it completely like "American Idol", so it's gone from revolutionary to pointless. I am just, sick and tired of this bullshit and it's time to change this, static monotony regarding this category. I hope it does. And it better.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Project Runway".
Okay, I might be going heart over head with this, but fuck it; if the voters of this category don't care than why should I?


OUTSTANDING STRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM
Antiques Roadshow-PBS
Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives-Food Network
Mythbusters-Discovery Channel
Property Brothers-HGTV
Shark Tank-ABC
Undercover Boss-CBS

"Property Brothers" came in and replaced "Who Do You Think You Are?" in this category. I haven't seen it, I'm watching an episode now on Netflix, and, it's eh. I can't really imagine it pulling an upset here, but maybe. Last year, "Shark Tank" won the category, which was the first year it was given out, as the category separated the Reality Program category into Structured and Unstructured, but I think that basically just meant that there's more room for an extra nomination. I still gotta think "Shark Tank" is the favorite to repeat, although "Mythbusters" and another former winner "Undercover Boss" also can pull off the win. "Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives" is cool, I'd rather see something like "Pawn Stars" get in here, although that can be grating when it's not talking about the items they're showcasing but "Antiques Roadshow" is basically "Pawn Stars" without the extra crap anyway, so.... (Shrugs) 

PREDICTION: "Shark Tank"
PREFERENCE: "Antiques Roadshow"
WINNER: "Shark Tank"


OUTSTANDING UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM
Alaska: The Last Frontier-Discovery Channel
Deadliest Catch-Discovery Channel
Intervention-A&E
Million Dollar Listing-Bravo
Naked and Afraid-Discovery Channel
Wahlburgers-A&E

"Flipping Out" is one of the odd shows out and I kinda suspect that they might not have submitted, 'cause they did skip a year but maybe that was just wishful thinking.  I suspect that if it did, it would've gotten in. Didn't expect to see "Naked and Afraid" in here. Don't know what to make of that. "Deadliest Catch" and "Intervention" are the only nominees that have won this category previously, and both have won when it was Reality Program and not Unstructured Reality Program. I liked "Wahlburgers", I'm not really sure that's more than just a nomination because, well, Mark Wahlburg, but who knows.

PREDICTION: "Intervention"
PREFERENCE: "Million Dollar Listing"
WINNER: "Deadliest Catch"


OUTSTANDING HOST FOR A REALITY OR REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
Tom Bergeron-"Dancing with the Stars"-ABC
Anthony Bourdain-"The Taste"-ABC
Cat Deeley-"So You Think You Can Dance"-FOX
Heidi Klum, Tim Gunn-"Project Runway"-Lifetime
Jane Lynch-"Hollywood Game Night"-NBC

Okay, I still have to complain that Jane Lynch should be submitted to Game Show Host at the Daytime Emmys and not in this category, (And there is precedent for that, Regis Philbin won for hosting "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?" a primetime game show, but he won a Daytime Emmy for it, so I'm still calling bullshit on the nominations) but, if she's gonna submit, then... (Shrugs) yeah, she's amazing on that show. Frankly I'm more confused by Anthony Bourdain's nomination; is "The Taste" even still on the air? Well, no, it's been canceled, but it apparently did have three seasons. I love Anthony Bourdain, I watched "The Taste" and didn't know he was the host, and frankly his other shows are better anyway. (He won again for "Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown" at the Creative Arts this year, and that was a tougher category than normal too this year) Well, assuming he's out of it, Cat Deeley is the most overdue; she could win this, I hope she does, but it's very hard to take it away from Jane Lynch; she just has so much more to do, in that show than Deeley. I know, Deeley has like six shows on two sides of the Atlantic doing this, but still.... (Sigh)

PREDICTION: Jane Lynch-"Hollywood Game Night"
PREFERENCE: Cat Deeley-"So You Think You Can Dance"
WINNER: "Jane Lynch"-"Hollywood Game Night"


VARIETY
OUTSTANDING VARIETY TALK SERIES
The Colbert Report-Comedy Central
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart-Comedy Central
Jimmy Kimmel Live-ABC
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver-HBO
Late Show with David Letterman-CBS
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon-NBC

Good lord, Gold Derby's all over the place in this category. This is the first year they've separated Variety into Variety-Talk and Variety-Sketch series, although the only major change is that "Saturday Night Live" is no longer eligible, although I would've predicted it wouldn't have gotten in to begin with. Okay, "The Colbert Report" is now canceled, as Colbert's moved to David Letterman's old spot, Letterman's out, and "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" is retired. Jesus Christ, there's sentimental all over the map here, and I'm still not convinced that perhaps we're all looking in the wrong direction and that "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" is probably in the lead. Tough call here. That said, I-eh, why is Jimmy Kimmel nominated? I'm sorry, but-eh, okay, in major moments, with the right setup he can be great and big and whatever, but day-to-day, eh-, I-, I'm sorry he's not as funny as everybody else. I don't get why he keeps getting nominated. Over Conan O'Brien, over Larry Wilmore, over Craig Ferguson, who really should be nominated, and over Bill Maher now? No, he's not in that league. I-eh, hmm. I don't get it; I don't know why he keeps getting nominated. It baffles me. He's the third-best on his timeslot right now, ugh.

PREDICTION: "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart"
PREFERENCE: "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver"
Normally I'd always be in John Stewart's camp, but honestly, if I had my vote this year, John Oliver's really the one I've been most impressed with. He should win easily next year. Although, with Samantha Bee and Noah What'shisname on "The Daily Show" maybe it's early to predict that, but yeah, Oliver's awesome


OUTSTANDING VARIETY-SKETCH SERIES
Drunk History-Comedy Central
Inside Amy Schumer-Comedy Central
Key & Peele-Comedy Central
Portlandia-IFC
Saturday Night Live-NBC

Well, this category was supposed to be on the Creative Arts Emmys, at least that's what the Emmys told us until suddenly it wasn't. (Frustrated grunt) Not that it should've been anyway, but, whatever. Comedy Central rules Sketch Comedy apparently. Any other year, it would be hard to go against "Saturday Night Live", but on top of "Inside Amy Schumer" and "Key & Peele" at the absolute top of their game, this was a terrible "SNL" year, one of the absolute most forgettable in recent memory. They couldn't even get a Guest Actor win, and Kate McKinnon's Supporting Actress nomination is literally the only thing I thought was remotely good on the show this year. Well, it happens, transition years are tough for "SNL" and this was just not a good year to have one.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Inside Amy Schumer"


OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL
Bill Maher: Live from D.C.-HBO
The Kennedy Center Honors-CBS
Louis C.K.: Live at The Comedy Store-LouisCK.net
Mel Brooks Live at the Geffen-HBO
The Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special-NBC
Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga: Cheek to Cheek LIVE!-PBS

The highlight of "Saturday Night Live" this year, was the 40th Anniversary Special, and it was, mostly a good special. Not a great special. (I really can't get over just how strange the whole Eddie Murphy segment was and to be honest, and I thought some of the sketches didn't quite work) So, I'm looking around and Mel Brooks, or something that he's involved with is nominated in a few categories this year, and this feels as likely a place to honor him as any; his AFI Lifetime Achievement Award Presentation won this last year, although "The Kennedy Center Honors" have a way of pulling this off, even in weak year.  Hmm....

PREDICTION: "Mel Brooks: Live at the Geffen"
PREFERENCE: "Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga: Cheek to Cheek Live!"
WINNER: "The Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special"


OUTSTANDING SPECIAL CLASS PROGRAM
The 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards-NBC
Beyonce And JAY Z On the Run-HBO
The Oscars-ABC
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Live from Lincoln Center)-PBS
68th Annual Tony Awards-CBS

Man, I really want to see that "Sweeney Todd.... Live from Lincoln Center" that really sounds awesome. Can't find it streaming on PBS.com. Huh. I wonder why, it got two major Emmy nominations, you'd think they'd be pushing this. Hmm. Well, I guess of the ones I've seen, eh, The Oscars were okay, but yeah, when nothing else is obvious go with the Tony Awards, which were also underwhelming this year.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "68th Annual Tony Awards"
WINNER: "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Live from Lincoln Center)"
Okay, now I really want to see this. If there's a link to this, can somebody send it to me?.


OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
The Colbert Report-Head Writer: Opus Moreschi; et. al.-Comedy Central
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart-Head Writer: Elliott Kalan, et. al.-Comedy Central
Inside Amy Schumer-Head Writer: Jessi Klein, et. al-Comedy Central
Key & Peele-Jay Martel, Ian Roberts, Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele-Comedy Central
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver-John Oliver, et. al.-HBO

For reasons that I'm not 100% positive about, Goldderby doesn't have odds ranked for this category, even though it's on the main show this year. (WGA negotiated rules that this alternates every other year with Writing Variety Special, I don't know how they got to that). This is a bit of an interesting category now that they separated out Talk and Sketch, but they didn't separate it for the Writing and Directing categories. And this year, oh boy. This is really up for grabs, I can legitimately see an argument for every one of these nominees winning. I think the majority are going with "Inside Amy Schumer" but I tend to think that that'll win Variety-Sketch Series, and, while not a guarantee, this is a category that they might give to a show that won't win Series. Hmm. Tough to tell where they'll land with this, but in terms of most influential and unique writing, I kinda think it's hard to ignor what John Oliver's been doing.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver"-John Oliver..., et. al


OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
The Colbert Report-"Show 11040"-James Hoskinson-Comedy Central
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart-"Show 20103"-Chuck O'Neil-Comedy Central
Inside Amy Schumer-"12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer"-Amy Schumer and Ryan McFaul-Comedy Central
Late Show with David Letterman-"Show 4214"-Jerry Foley-CBS
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon-"Show 203"-Dave Diomedi-NBC

Perennial winner Don Roy King for "Saturday Night Live" is not nominated this year, (He did get into Variety Special, but this is a huge shock, and it puts this category completely up for grabs) Okay, we got, the last Steven Colbert, the last "The Daily Show", the last Letterman, not to mention, this wild card entry of "Inside Amy Schumer", that's gotta get directors panties melting. She's up for the "12 Angry Men" parody she did, for those who don't know, "12 Angry Men" is considered one of the absolute essential films for studying directing. It's literally in every directing handbook, including the most famous one, which was written by the guy who directed the original movie. I can see this going a few different directions, but god that's amazing directing bait that Schumer put out there.

PREDICTION: "Late Show with David Letterman"-Jerry Foley
PREFERENCE: "Inside Amy Schumer"-Amy Schumer and Ryan McFaul


OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
The 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards-Barry Adelman,... et. al.-NBC
Key & Peele Super Bowl Special-Brendan Hunt, Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, Rich Talarico-Comedy Central
Louis C.K.: Live At The Comedy Store-Louis C.K.-LouisCK.net
Mel Brooks Live At the Geffen-Mel Brooks-HBO
The Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special-Lorne Michaels,... et. al.-NBC

Last year, this category was surprisingly won by Sarah Silverman for her "We Are Miracles" stand-up performance, and that was a major upset. Not only did it beat the Golden Globes and Billy Crystal's HBO special "700 Sundays", but, the category was on the main show last year, because of the WGA requirements that make this category switch out every other year with Writing for a Variety Series, and apparently enough people in the Academy thought it was a good idea to give Sarah Silverman a live mike on network television. I love Sarah Silverman, Jesus, why would you do that?! Even I wouldn't take that kind of risk. Anyway, some suspected that part of why she won was because they like to honor singular writers in this category lately, and not teams of writers. Hmm, that's admittedly kind of an odd thing to me, but I guess I get it. By that logic, the Golden Globes and the "SNL 40th Anniversary Special are out, and probably Key & Peele as well. So, let's see, give Louis C.K. another Emmy, or give Mel Brooks another Emmy? Hmm.

PREDICTION: "Mel Brooks: Live at the Geffen"-Mel Brooks
PREFERENCE: "The 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards"-Barry Adelman..., et. al
WINNER: Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store"-Louis C.K.
Oh c'mon, that was the damn special he sold on his website! God, they'll just make him excuses sometimes to award Louis C.K. won't they. (Cut to next year, when I argue that C.K. hasn't won enough)


OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
Annie Lennox: Nostalgia Live In Concert-Natalie Johns-PBS
The Kennedy Center Honors-Louis J. Horvitz-CBS
The Oscars-Hamish Hamilton-ABC
The Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special-Don Roy King-NBC
68th Annual Tony Awards-Glenn Weiss-CBS

I probably should've thought about this before making some of these predictions before the Creative Arts Emmys this year, but this actually wasn't a really great Tonys year. I'm still preferring it, but, hmm, I should've thought about this one for a second or two more.

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "68th Annual Tony Awards"-Glenn Weiss
WINNER: "The Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special"-Don Roy King


LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIES
OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
American Crime-ABC
American Horror Story: Freak Show-FX Networks
The Honorable Woman-SundanceTV
Olive Kitteridge-HBO
Wolf Hall-PBS

Okay, I'm gonna try to get to those shows at some point, but I'm pretty much going on trends and whatnot here, I really don't know much about any of these series yet. I want to get to many of them, but-eh, (Shrugs) Sorry. Anyway, as "Miniseries" is now back to "Limited Series" because of shows like "American Horror Story" and "True Detective" fucking up everybody's definition of this category, we'll take a look. Well, unless there's a weird upset I'm not seeing, I think this is between "American Horror Story: Freak Show" and "Oliver Kitteridge" this year. "AHS..." did do well in some unexpected categories at the Creative Arts, but hmm, so did "Olive Kitteredge" too. Well, despite a possible "Sherlock"-like sweep of upsets like next year, probably best to stick to the expected here.

PREDICTION: "Oliver Kitteridge"
PREFERENCE: None


OUTSTANDING TELEVISION MOVIE
Agatha Christie's Poirot: Curtain, Poirot's Last Case-Acorn TV
Bessie-HBO
Grace of Monaco-Lifetime
Hello Ladies: The Movie-HBO
Killing Jesus-National Geographic Channel
Nightingale-HBO

For the first time, this category has been moved to the Creative Arts Emmys. I don't agree with that, but, if every category I thought should've been on the main show was on the main show, then, the show would probably be another hour longer. Besides, barring something completely unexpected, "Bessie" is such a heavy favorite that it's pretty much the biggest lock of the night to win. Although I think we should know the first major Emmy nomination for Acorn TV; that's a bit noteworthy. There's already a bias towards British programs supposedly half the time and Acorn TV is a pay service, although I don't know too many people who use it. This could be something to remember for future Emmy years, interesting precedent.

PREDICTION: "Bessie"
PREFERENCE: None
WINNER: "Bessie"


OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR A MOVIE
Timothy Hutton-"American Crime"-ABC
Ricky Gervais-"Derek: Special"-Netflix
Adrien Brody-"Houdini"-HISTORY
David Oyelowo-"Nightingale"-HBO
Richard Jenkins-"Olive Kitteridge"-HBO
Mark Rylance-"Wolf Hall"-PBS

Never underestimate Ricky Gervais, but I think most people are projecting either Richard Jenkins or David Oyelowo. "Olive Kitteredge" is probably the go-to for most categories this year unless there's something obvious to give the award to instead. Oyelowo, on top of basically being a one-man show performance in his film, also has the cache of having just been screwed over a nomination for the Oscars. Jenkins on the other hand, is one of the most beloved character actors of all time and he's been overlooked plenty of times before too, so that might be a wash. Mark Rylance can also play a spoiler as "Wolf Hall" was both a major stage production and PBS miniseries that's all British-y and whatnot, could play "Downton Abbey"-like spoiler.

PREDICTION: Richard Jenkins-"Olive Kitteridge"
PREFERENCE: None


OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR A MOVIE
Maggie Gyllenhaal-"The Honorable Woman"-SundanceTV
Felicity Huffman-"American Crime"-ABC
Jessica Lange-"American Horror Story: Freak Show"-FX Networks
Queen Latifah-"Bessie"-HBO
Frances McDormand-"Olive Kitteridge"-HBO
Emma Thompson-"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Live from Lincoln Center)"-PBS

I mentioned that this was a loaded category and, yes, this is an overloaded category. I legitimately can make a strong case for each of these names to win. Jessica Lange has upset in this category twice, Frances McDormand is a beloved favorite for the big miniseries, but she lost the Golden Globe to Maggie Gyllenhaal, but Felicity Huffman is an Emmy favorite and "American Crime" did unexpectedly well, Queen Latifah's "Bessie" was the big winner on the TV movie side and now with the miniseries submitting episodes and not entire series in this category, she can easily win this, and Emma Thompson played a live, stage performance, in a beloved musical, so she sings and dances, and it's a stage performance so you really see how great she's acting. Plus, everyone of these actors are beloved in general. 

PREDICTION: Frances McDormand-"Olive Kitteridge"
PREFERENCE: Maggie Gyllenhaal-"The Honorable Woman",
I haven't seen "The Honorable Woman" but I've always felt Gyllenhaal's been underappreciated for years. (She should have at least two Oscars by now.) So, I kinda want to see her win something. 


OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR A MOVIE
Richard Cabral-"American Crime"-ABC
Damian Lewis-"Wolf Hall"-PBS
Bill Murray-"Olive Kitteridge"-HBO
Denis O'Hare-"American Horror Story: Freak Show"-FX Networks
Michael Kenneth Williams-"Bessie"-HBO
Finn Wittrock-"American Horror Story: Freak Show"-FX Networks

Not that this category is ever predictable, but... (Shrugs) eh, (Scratches head) I don't know. I think most everybody's predicting Bill Murray because, well, it's Bill fucking Murray! Although, eh, I don't know, that's never been a consistent predictor before, so, I'm kinda thinking Finn Wittrock might be a surprise upset here. "AHS" does well when there's multiple nominees in a category, so I wonder if we're not missing something there. Plus, Richard Cabral could be an upset, probably most likely the best spot for "American Crime" to pull off a win, and Damian Lewis won a few years ago for "Homeland", so there's might be some votes there.

PREDICTION: Bill Murray-"Olive Kitteredge"
PREFERENCE: None


OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR A MOVIE
Angela Bassett-"American Horror Story: Freak Show"-FX Networks
Kathy Bates-"American Horror Story: Freak Show"-FX Networks
Zoe Kazan-"Olive Kitteridge"-HBO
Regina King-"American Crime"-ABC
Mo'Nique-"Bessie"-HBO
Sarah Paulson-"American Horror Story: Freak Show"-FX Networks

Hmm. Kathy Bates pulled off the upset last season over co-star Sarah Paulson, who's now the favorite again. There's a few people predicting Regina King or Mo'Nique but, I don't know, the rule about the more nominations a show gets in the category... it feels like a good rule of thumb anyway. 

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Sarah Paulson-"American Horror Story: Freak Show", although I'm just gonna pretend this is a belated Emmy she should've won for "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip". 


OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR A DRAMATIC SPECIAL
American Crime-John Ridley-ABC
Bessie-Story: Dee Rees and Horton Foote; Screenplay:Dee Rees, Christopher Cleveland, Bettina Gilois-HBO
Hello Ladies: The Movie-Stephen Merchant, Gene Stupnitsky, and Lee Eisenberg-HBO
The Honorable Woman-Hugo Blick-SundanceTV
Olive Kitteredge-Jane Anderson-HBO
Wolf Hall-Peter Straughan-PBS

Hmm. Another weird category that can go anywhere. Well, not anywhere; I can't imagine how "Hello Ladies...." has any shot at winning. (Anybody else shocked that it was "Hello Ladies" and not "Derek" that snuck into Writing"?) Well, gut instinct tells me that they'll probably most likely go with a miniseries, although Horton Foote's posthumous nomination is interesting, (and I like that Dee Rees is getting some attention after her wonderful debut feature film "Pariah") and certainly "Bessie"'s got a chance, but this is definitely a limited series year, John Ridley's most known for writing "12 Years a Slave" but his "American Crime" did catch on, and can't eliminate "Wolf Hall" either. Always a chance that the British drama can steal this. It's hard to tell what they seem to think about "Wolf Hall", but I'm reluctant 'cause it was also big at the Tonys this year, although it mostly lost there as well.

PREDICTION: "Olive Kitteredge"-Jane Anderson
PREFERENCE: None


OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR A DRAMATIC SPECIAL
American Horror Story: Freak Show, "Monsters Among Us"-Ryan Murphy-FX Networks
Bessie-Dee Rees-HBO
The Honorable Woman-Hugo Blick-SundanceTV
Houdini-Uli Edel-HISTORY
The Missing-Tom Shankland-Starz
Olive Kitteridge-Lisa Cholodenko-HBO
Wolf Hall-Peter Kosminsky-PBS

Seven nominees in this category? Hmm. Well, I'm not sure how this'll play out either, although I can't imagine "Houdini" or "The Missing" winning. I'm just gonna play it safe and presume an "Olive Kitteridge" sweep. Besides Lisa Cholodenko is one of my favorite directors. 

PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Olive Kitteredge"-Lisa Cholodenko

All the rest of the main categories, were given out at the Creative Arts Emmys, so if you want to look them up, I'd go to Emmys.org, and frankly, I'm running out of library time. I will say that I did see "Going Clear..." the Scientology documentary from Alex Gibney, that won three Emmys which, I will review as soon as I have the time to review it. (Because it's apparently Oscar eligible, so it qualifies for my movie reviews; which means, one more film I have to review.) Okay, let's have fun, watch the Emmys everybody! I will do an analysis, literally as soon as I can and hopefully, (Fingers crossed) we'll officially be back to normal next week and I do have big blogs planned after, but for now, let's just enjoy the Emmys! 



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