2013 OSCAR NOMINATONS ANALYSIS! EVERY CATEGORY ANALYZED and the conspiracy to make sure my CORRECT PREDICTIONS were changed to never reveal my PREDICTING POWERS!

The sleepily-announced nominations for the Academy Awards this morning,- (Good lord, Chris Hemsworth and Cheryl Boone, just get the host to do this next year like last time; I fell asleep in the middle, and didn't realize Oprah's name hadn't been called for two and a half minutes, Jesus! At least Ellen would've danced or something! Fuck! It's 5:30am, you both better be awake!) and I got them all right, except the grand conspiracy to make me look like an idiot, which I'm convinced is being perpetrated by CHAOS agents who have infiltrated the inner sanctums of the Academy, have conspired against me to nominate films to make sure that my predicting genius remains undiscovered to the outside world. Yeah, that's it. They don't want me knowing I can predict the future, which me reminds, please ignore all twenty years of accurately predicted futures bet, in every major sporting event and championship game that's behind that's that beaded curtain over there.

Alright, I think I did better last year, some cases I know where I went wrong, other times, I think was as confused as everybody else, a few other times, who knows. Well, as always, we don't simply do the top sheet analysis here though. We predicted every single category, and now, we're analyzing, EVERY SINGLE CATEGORY, as we take a closer look at all the Academy Award nominations, in incredible detail. Because apparently I am a glutton for punishment, and I just simply can't stop myself. that is the kind of in-depth analysis that we provide that no one else does.

We're gonna start with the big categories first of course, and yes, while we're at it, I'm keeping score of how I predicted, and see where we went wrong. Stars are correct predictions.

BEST PICTURE

*American Hustle-Pro.: Charles Roven, Richard Suckle, Megan Ellison and Jonathan Gordon

*Captain Phillips-Pro.: Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti and Michael De Luca

1/2*Dallas Buyers Club-Pro.: Robbie Brenner and Rachel Winter

*Gravity-Pro.: Alfonso Cuaron and David Heyman

*Her-Pro.: Megan Ellison, Spike Jonze and Vincent Landay

*Nebraska-Pro.: Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa

Philomena-Pro.: Gabrielle, Steve Coogan and Tracey Seaward

*12 Years a Slave-Pro.: Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Anthony Katagas

*The Wolf of Wall Street-TBA

(Hitting myself in head) I forgot to count the British vote, didn't I? Dammit! 3% correlation between BAFTA and the A.M.P.A.S., and it's completely reasonable that "Philomena" would've shown up on about 2% of other ballot, and that knocked out, both "Saving Mr. Banks", which apparently got almost nothing, so, so much for the John Lee Hancock vote (This might be a correction for nominating his previous film "The Blind Side") but it also knocked down the vote that "Inside Llewyn Davis" would've gotten. I should've put up "Dallas Buyers Club", but I had that one as the last film out; I should've just thought for an extra second on that one. Outside of that though, no real surprises; everything else went as expected. Happy that "Her" got in, after previous Spike Jonze snubs in the category, and despite not getting a director nod, Jonze has three nominations total this year, so glad he's finally getting the Award respect he deserves. And "American Hustle" actually tied with "Gravity" for most nominations, and "12 Years a Slave" only got nine overall, so I think it's now safe to say that it's a 3-film race, and that "...Hustle" is a legitimate contender for Best Picture, and no just the top also-ran. 

BEST DIRECTOR

*Alfonso Cuaron-“Gravity”

*Steve McQueen-“12 Years a Slave”

Alexander Payne-“Nebraska”

*David O. Russell-“American Hustle”

*Martin Scorsese-“The Wolf of Wall Street”

I correctly predicted that Paul Greengrass was gonna get snubbed for Director, but chose Spike Jonze instead, and while I did foresee his upswell, Alexander Payne instead got in for the third straight film for him. I had him, as the 6th one out, I thought he would "get lost in the shuffle" which was my words, apparently he didn't and good for him. (David O. Russell's been nominated for his last three films too.) No real shock here, congrats to Steve McQueen, the third Black person ever nominated in the category, the first one who isn't African-American interestingly enough. And Cuaron, I believe is the 2nd Mexican to ever get nominated after Inarritu for "Babel", somebody look that one up though. It's most likely between McQueen and Cuaron to win, with Russell, possibly playing spoiler, although that's more likely in Picture. 

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale-“American Hustle”

*Bruce Dern-“Nebraska”

Leonardo DiCaprio-“The Wolf of Wall Street”

*Chiwetel Ejiofor-“12 Years a Slave”

*Matthew McConaughey-“Dallas Buyers Club”

I foresaw two logical scenarios which was gonna be dependent solely on just how much the Academy, and in particular, the actors branch like "American Hustle", and sure enough, scenario two, involving a break with the SAG nomination, and one of the strangest of all Oscar anomalies has just occurred. For the second consecutive year, one film got Oscar nominations in all four acting categories, something that hadn't happened previously in my lifetime, since "Reds" in 1980. "American Hustle" just achieved that same accomplishment, and here's the real piece of amazement, both film, David O. Russell movies! (Boom) Mind blown! That will not get the press it deserves, that in two years Russell's directed eight Oscar nominees. I'll look it up, but I think that's a record. Anyway, that's how I got Christian Bale wrong, predicted that unlikely scenario wouldn't happen, especially in such a loaded field. I correctly predicted Robert Redford would get snubbed, but DiCaprio's nomination is a bit of a shock to me, because he has a tendency to get snubbed. It's his first nomination since "Blood Diamond" in fact, so a minor surprise there, especially since he didn't get a SAG nominations, he probably took the spot that most thought Tom Hanks would've gotten. "Captain Phillips" really got sorta disrespected with a surprise lack of nominations in certain categories. Good to see Bruce Dern get in though. Still have to believe that Ejiofor is the man to beat though at the moment. 

BEST ACTRESS

*Amy Adams-“American Hustle”

*Cate Blanchett-“Blue Jasmine”

*Sandra Bullock-“Gravity”

*Judi Dench-“Philomena”

Meryl Streep-“August: Osage County”

Even though I didn't project "American Hustle"'s domination in the acting categories, I did know that they wouldn't be able to ignore Amy Adams. I however, also predicted that they'd somehow ignore Meryl Streep. That was, probably more wishful thinking than anything else. If you've loss track as well, this is her 18th nomination! Remember, the old record was like 12 or 13, so, she keeps getting in. Some years, I think she's just the default nominee, but they didn't ignore her. They love Amy Adams, they love Meryl Streep, they love Judi Dench, this is her seventh, so they all got in. And now, the battle between Blanchett and Bullock, is officially underway. (And don't rule out Amy Adams either; you know they want to give it to her.) (Oh, and btw, do you hear the boos when Meryl Streep's name got called? Oooh, that was interesting. Bad idea, by whoever did it, but interesting.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

*Barkhad Abdi-“Captain Phillips”

Bradley Cooper-“American Hustle”

*Michael Fassbender-“12 Years a Slave”

Jonah Hill-“The Wolf of Wall Street”

*Jared Leto-“Dallas Buyers Club”

If "Captain Phillips" was the post-SAGs loser, than "The Wolf of Wall Street" has to be the film that won. Not a single SAG nominee for the film, but once Jonah Hill's named was announced, DiCaprio's nomination became academic. Daniel Bruhl was the biggest loser, getting a SAG, Globe, BAFTA and a Critics Choice nomination, yet snubbed here as Bradley Cooper continues "...Hustle"'s runaway with acting nods. Jared Leto, the presumptive favorite btw, this is his first film in six years after taking a hiatus from acting to pursue his music career, that's pretty impressive when you think about it. I had James Gandolfini getting in, so no posthumous nomination for him. In fact, now that I'm looking at it, I had to look this up, this is the first time since 1981, that every single film that got an Acting Nomination, also got at least one more Oscar nomination! Every year since, at least one film has a lone acting nominee, so, don't misunderstand, taking a Daniel Bruhl or Gandolfini or Exarchopoulus to get in, was playing the odds. This is an incredible rarity. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins-“Blue Jasmine”

*Jennifer Lawrence-“American Hustle”

*Lupita Nyong’o-“12 Years a Slave”

Julia Roberts-“August: Osage County”

*June Squibb-“Nebraska

It took a minute, but perhaps the biggest snub, would have to be a lack of a nomination for Oprah Winfrey, which I think nearly every prognosticator had as a lock going in, even despite lukewarm thought on "Lee Daniels' The Butler", and now, the film, got completely shutout despite three SAG nominations. Now we know, that was the "Hairspray" anomaly repeating itself. I had Julia Roberts getting the post-SAG snub instead, and I guess, I misjudged "August: Osage County" entirely, and while I was looking around for an extra nomination, I'm glad Sally Hawkins finally got recognition for her work. She's been overlooked more than a few times until now, I kinda thought that "Blue Jasmine" wasn't as well-regarded as others thought, I saw a few people ranking it for Best Picture, and a few technical categories too, I tended to think it was regarded as second tier, in a way I was right, but glad to see the extra nod for it here. Roberts's nominations, this hasn't been talked about much, she could pull off an upset here, because essentially her role is a co-lead. In fact, when the play was on Broadway, her role was the lead role, and Streep's the feature (Tony Award talk for Supporting) role, so somehow those got switched in the midst of the Weinstein marketing machine. BTW though, Weinstein, did not do great this year nomination-wise. "Philomena" pushed through barely, but still, don't know quite what to make of that, I tend to think the Academy just thought other films were better than his this year than anything else. I mean, let's face it, a lot of time, he does make good movies, so I hardly think a lack of a nomination is simply a product of only a half-well regarded film. BTW, I don't remember the last time a person won Lead performer one year, and the Supporting the next; Jennifer Lawrence, she's got a decent shot at doing it this year, and that's just scary. She's younger than me, and so friggin' talented. Unbelievable!

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

*Before Midnight-Richard Linklater, Julie Delphy and Ethan Hawke

*Captain Phillips-Billy Ray

*Philomena-Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

*12 Years a Slave-John Ridley

*The Wolf of Wall Street-Terence Winter

THIRD YEAR IN A ROW I've correctly predicted the nominees in the Adapted Screenplay category! Sometimes I think it's getting easier every year. I think the only real shock to some, was probably "August: Osage County" not getting in for Tracy Letts's script, but nothing too unusual here. I would've like to have seen "Before Midnight" do better than it's predecessor "Before Sunset" than just getting a Writing nomination, but at least they remembered it at all. "12 Years a Slave" has to be the early favorite, not sure if anything else can or will sneak in to win. 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

*American Hustle-Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell

Blue Jasmine-Woody Allen

*Dallas Buyers Club-Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack

*Her-Spike Jonze

*Nebraska-Bob Nelson

Well, they went paint with the WGA nods here, that's a rarity, and you know what, I'm gonna make a complaint here, why exactly isn't "Gravity" nominated for Writing? It's happened before, last time was "Titanic" won without a Writing nomination, but that script didn't deserve one. "Gravity" is quite a well-written film, yeah, it's a technological marvel, but that shouldn't exclude it from a writing nomination. Imagine just how hard it is, to write some of the action in that movie, to very specific details, and then to believably write a movie with just (SPOILER ALERT) one character for much of the film. I'll be honest, I think this was a more inventive vision than the writers are giving it credit for, I thought they'd have corrected themselves from the WGAs. Somebody had to write that script to be compelling enough to get Clooney and Bullock on board; I think it should've been nominated, and I hated kicking out Woody Allen for it, but I am glad as always that he got in, but Cuaron should've gotten one more nomination than he did.


ANIMATED FEATURE

*The Croods-Dir.: Chris Sanders and Kirk DeMicco; Pro.: Kristine Belson

Despicable Me 2-Dir.: Chris Renaud and Pierre Coffin; Pro.: Chris Meledandri

Ernest & Celestine-Benjamin Renner and Didier Brunner

*Frozen-Dir.: Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee; Pro.: Peter Del Vecho

*The Wind Rises-Dir.: Hayao Miyazaki; Pro.: Toshio Suzuki

I guess I'll watch it soon enough, but when did "Depsicable Me" suddenly become a beloved recent animated film? I mean, I liked the first one, thought it was forgettable, actually preferred it's competitor "Megamind" that year, the original did not get an Oscar nomination in the category, (First time a sequel got nominated in category when the original did not, [not counting "Toy Story 3", for which there was no category at the time.]) and I didn't think it deserved one then, or now. but somehow, now there's minions all over my Facebook wall. It snuck into this category by what's becoming a much more complacent and incestuous Animation branch the last couple years. They did nominated "Ernest & Celestine" which is a bit outside the norm, and they can't ignore Miyazaki's latest, but there were much more ambitious and intriguing projects out there that were eligible, and this being a weak animation year, they could've been much more inventive with these nominations than they were, and frankly I find it disappointing. The category really shouldn't be just Best Children's Animated Film, it should be Best Animated, so I'm pretty disappointed by the lack of inventiveness here. There always used to be one "WTF" nominee, now, I wonder if the Branch is even trying. 

 DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

*The Act of Killing-Dir.: Joshua Oppenheimer; Pro.: Signe Byrge Sorenson

Cutie and the Boxer-Dir./Pro.: Zachary Heinzerling; Pro.: Lydia Dean Pilcher

Dirty Wars-Dir.:Richard Rowley; Pro.: Jeremy Scahill

*The Square-Dir.: Jehane Noujaim; Pro.: Karim Amer

*20 Feet from Stardom-TBA

First of all, kudos on the Academy, for actually announcing the nominees for Best Documentary at the Press conference, and not simply, leaving that one in the press packet of nominees, it's about time! I'm not sure why they've insisted on doing that for Song for the last two years, (Well, I do know why they are, but it's not important) but glad they're recognizing just how big and how apart of the common cinematic experience documentaries are and have been becoming over the recent years. That said, no nomination for "Stories We Tell" is a shock and an upset, I thought it was between that and "The Act of Killing" and once again, the Documentary Branch; they're not predictable, do not think you know where they're going, they don't have a history of trying to please the people. And the other snub is "Blackfish", although I predicted that one would get snubbed, surprising most people. I did suspect "Cutie and the Boxer" could get in, but actually I saw "Dirty Wars" a few weeks a back, I'm not overly surprised, but that's not a deserving nominee. It's a good film, but it wasn't a compelling narrative, the film could've been done a lot better than is actually was. I think they nominated subject matter over content with that one. Not surprised, but disappointed that one got in, especially considering what didn't. 

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

*The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

*The Great Beauty (Italy)

*The Hunt (Denmark)

The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

*Omar (Palestine)

Man, I knew "The Missing Picture" was a wild card in that mix, but I tended to think "The Grandmaster" would've gotten in, that film did get some technical awards, so interesting choice to not put it here. I did see "The Hunt" recently and I will be reviewing it soon, I personally was underwhelmed by it. Not surprised it's here; I think some see it as a favorite, but I'm not 100% sold on that. The academy does like Paolo Sorrentino "The Great Beauty" director's films, I think that's more likely. I think I read the category right though, getting four out of five in, "Omar" from the same directors that won for "Paradise Now" a few years back, that could be an upset too. "The Broken Circle Breakdown" won a lot of European Awards, boy Belgium's film community lately, really impressive. Lot of good movies coming out of there, and not just the Dardennes either. Of course, "Blue is the Warmest Color" was not eligible, that's unfortunate. Kind of a weird year in this category, we'll see. 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

*The Grandmaster-Philippe Le Sourd

*Gravity-Emmanuel Lubezki

Inside Llewyn Davis-Bruno Delbonnel

Nebraska-Phedon Papamichael

*Prisoners-Roger A. Deakins

Wow, no "Captain Phillips" or "12 Years a Slave" here, that's shocking, especially the latter. No surprised by the other two getting in, instead, but if I wanted to be wrong on one thing this year, I really wish "Prisoners" wasn't nominated. At this point, why are you nominating Roger Deakins when we know he doesn't have a chance in hell of winning. It's just wrong at this point. The guy's one of the great cinematographers of all-time, this is eleventh nomination, he's never won, and Lubezki's winning for "Gravity" this year, that's maybe the biggest lock there is. If it was up-in-the-air a bit, I'd say, okay, but this, this is wrong, he shouldn't be nominated here. I don't want to see him show up again unless they're guaranteed giving it to him, it's ridiculous at this, he's one of the all-time Oscar losers at this point, and he doesn't deserve this, to have to get a suit every year, get yelled at on the carpet by people who only want to see stars, and then you know it's one of the first categories, he loses, now he stays for the evening; he's the only nominee for the film....- I'm starting a petition to not put Roger Deaking through this anymore, until we already know he's gonna win. Nobody I feel more sorry for, for getting a nomination than him. 

FILM EDITING

*American Hustle-Jay Cassida, Cripin Struther and Alan Baumgarten

*Captain Phillips-Christopher Rouse

Dallas Buyers Club-John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

*Gravity-Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger

*12 Years a Slave-Joe Walker

Well, here it is, one of the first real big shocks, so big, that I didn't include it on my Oscar shortlist, and that's "Dallas Buyers Club" as an editing nominee. That didn't even show up as Editing nomination in the Spirit Awards, much less from the usually accurate and reliable Eddie Awards, so that came out of absolute nowhere and it took Thelma Schoonmaker's spot too, Scorsese's amazing and great editor, a legendary editor's spot, at least in my predictions it did. That is the first, really big off-the-board nomination, everything else was normal. And, I have no explanation for how "Dallas Buyers Club" got in. Not well-known editors, the movie doesn't have a directing nod, so it's not overly likely it's a Top 5 film, it's not an action-filled movie per se. This award will most likely go elsewhere, probably "Gravity", although I wouldn't rule out anything else, but if anybody else guessed "Dallas Buyers Club" in editing, go play the blackjack tables today, you just hit a shot in a dark. 

COSTUME DESIGN

*American Hustle-Michael Wilkinson

The Grandmaster-William Chank Suk Ping

*The Great Gatsby-Catherine Martin

The Invisible Woman-Michael O’Connor

*12 Years a Slave-Patricia Norris

"The Grandmaster" is probably the biggest shock here, as it wasn't nominated for a CDG Award, neither was "The Invisible Woman", but Michael O'Connor is quite a popular name, so just recognition he got in. Very rare though, that, consider a three-category, 13-nomination Guild Awards, that for some reason, two films made the Oscar cut. The rest are unsurprising. I had "Saving Mr. Banks" and "The Hunger Games..." in instead. Catherine Martin is also nominated for Production Design, she's one of the best in the business. In case you're wondering by the way, "The Invisible Woman" is a film about Charles Dickens and his mistress Nelly Terman, and it was considered an outside possibility for a few technical awards. If you hadn't heard of it beforehand, I don't blame you; it barely registered on my radar at all, but I did know about it, and it's not a remake/spinoff of "The Invisible Man". 


PRODUCTION DESIGN

*American Hustle-Pro.: Judy Becker; Set: Heather Loeffler

*Gravity-Pro.: Andy Nicholson; Set: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard

*The Great Gatsby-Pro.: Catherine Martin; Set: Gene Serdena

Her-Pro.: K.K. Barrett; Set: Gene Serdena

*12 Years a Slave-Pro.: Adam Stockhausen; Set: Alice Baker 

Little bit surprised "Her" got in over something more fantastical like "The Hobbit...", but not overly so, this about how the category looked like it would play out. Little tricky picking a winner yet, I wanna see what the ADG Guild chooses to win first."Gravity" looks like the favorite, partly 'cause Martin has a better shot at Costume Design, and "...Gatsby" would be big competition, but "American Hustle" is probably in the race though. It's probably "Gravity"'s to lose though, this category looked a lot more interesting last night for some reason, now...?

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Dallas Buyers Club-Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathew

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa-Stephen Prouty

The Lone Ranger-Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

I can't remember the last time I completely missed a category, but I'm not surprised it was those unpredictable makeup people. They don't give Guild Awards anymore but I think most people reasonably thought "American Hustle" and "The Great Gatsby", especially the former considering the importance of hair and makeup in both of those films, and I took what I thought was an educated guess in "Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters" being the third nominee (And no, I have no idea why this category has only three nominees every year. They should change that rule, I don't get why they narrow it to three.) The other eligible one was "The Hunger Games...", "Dallas Buyers Club", I thought about picking, 'cause they had to replicate the looks for AIDS patients in the '80s, and that is a tricky skill, not the absolute hardest, but I'm quite surprised that "The Lone Ranger" got in, 'cause what few clips I studied beforehand I wasn't particularly impressed. Yeah, it was a lot of makeup, especially on Johnny Depp with the white warpaint, but I thought it looked chalk-like and frankly I wasn't impressed. (Sighs!) Yeah, I can't believe something "Jackass" produced is getting an Oscar nomination, and you know what, I don't think they really should've either. Well, A., now I have to see the film, thanks a lot Makeup and Hairstylists (Middle finger!) and B. there might be more elaborate makeup in certain parts of the film, but basically it's a nomination for one prosthetic job. Especially since a lot of this was improvised, and used unsuspecting people (or at least they claimed that it was at least, I'm sure some wasn't.) so, this is essentially a nominee for one big  makeup work; I'm a little surprised it got in here; I didn't think it was as deserving as others, so, just based on, logic, I guess Dallas Buyers Club is the favorite here, but who knows. Throw a dart folks.

ORIGINAL SCORE

*The Book Thief-John Williams

*Gravity-Steven Price

*Her-William Butler and Owen Pallett

Philomena-Alexandre Desplat

Saving Mr. Banks-Thomas Newman

Um, well I definitely had Desplat and Newman as possibilities, as they're always possibilities when they're eligible, I'm more surprised that I got one of these right. "Her" I wondered if they were gonna nominate Arcade Fire for that, the Oscars usually likes to keep this Award, within the community, sometimes very much in the community at times. So, nice to see that, no real outside-the-norm nominees here. John Williams, again nominated, this is his 49th nomination folks, the next highest person alive nomination-wise has only 24, and that's Woody Allen, and in case you're wondering, Walt Disney has 59 nominations, a lot more wins, but if John Williams can keep going. There was a few snubs, I had taken a shot that "All is Lost" the Globe winner would sneak in, because of how critical the music is to that film, but not overly surprised. "12 Years a Slave" though, Hans Zimmer, definitely people go either way on him, I think most thought he would get in somewhere. Still thinking the Award is going to Steven Price, might go to Arcade Fire, but I doubt it. "Gravity," that score is perfectly subtle enough that you know it's there, but you don't think or feel overpowered by it, and that's a good score. 

ORIGINAL SONG

“Alone Yet Not Alone”-Alone Yet Not Alone-Music: Bruce Broughton; Lyric: Dennis Spiegel

*“Happy”-Despicable Me 2-Pharrell Williams

*“Let It Go”-Frozen-Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez

“The Moon Song”-Her-Music/Lyric: Karen O; Lyric: Spike Jonze

*“Ordinary Love”-Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom-Music/Lyric: Bono; Music: Dave Evans, Adam Clayton, and Larry Mullen

I think most are surprised Lana Del Ray's "Young and Beautiful got snubbed, I wasn't, I thought that song was overrated, although I thought "...Gatsby" would get something here, it had 5 eligible songs. (And btw, make note, the more eligible songs in recent years, the less likely you're getting nominated. Last year "Django Unchained" this year, eh, "The Great Gatsby". There were 75 eligible songs, I listened to as many as I could, but I didn't write them all down on my predictions next to possibles, and one that I'm really surprised got in, is "Alone Yet Not Alone"'s title track, (I never heard of the movie either) and this might be the single worst nomination at the Oscars this year. Here's what I think happened. It was second from the top next to "Amen" from "All is Lost", the branch, nominated there three or four favorites, like U2, like Pharrel Williams, like "Let It Go", and then got lazy, and picked one at random, near the top of the ballot. I really do think that's what happened, 'cause that was a terrible song. That is pure laziness. I took a shot with eh, "So You Know What It's Like" from "Short Term 12", I'm not terribly shocked that didn't get in, or the lack of a nod for the Fergie song from "Gatsby", although I wasn't as big on "The Moon Song"; not surprised it snuck it, not one I thought was Oscar worthy, especially with some better songs that were getting completely ignored, but it was certainly than "Alone Yet Not Alone" which is just atrocious. 

SOUND EDITING

*All is Lost-Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns

*Captain Phillips-Oliver Tarney

*Gravity-Glenn Freemantle

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug-Brent Burge

Lone Survivor-Wylie Stateman

"Iron Man 3" and "Rush", were the two I missed here, although glad, while it missed for Score and Lead Actor that "All is Lost" got in a Sound category. Remember this is the creating of sounds, getting nominated. "Lone Survivor" little surprised that had enough momentum to knock out, something like an "Iron Man 3" or "Rush", or "Pacific Rim" one of the bigger action blockbusters that this category is known for. Late-comer to the party, but it's-eh, it's come. So those are the only two surprising ones, probably a race between "Gravity" and "Captain Phillips" for the win, "All is Lost" with an outside shot. 

SOUND MIXING

*Captain Phillips-Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro

*Gravity-Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug-Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Sermanick and Tony Johnson

*Inside Llewyn Davis-Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

Lone Survivor-Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

The mixing, is the combining of sounds, and physical placing them effectively in the finished film product, which is why "Inside Llewyn Davis", being a musical-based film is a partial favorite here, yet not nominated in editing, taking, I guess presumptuously now, "All is Lost"'s spot. I guess I shouldn't completely count out "Lone Survivor" in either of these categories, because while musical can do good in Mixing, ones that always do well in both are war movies, and that's a war film, probably not as strong as "Captain Phillips" here, but still. Congrats to Skip Lievsay and Chris Munro btw, getting multiple nominations in this category. Good for them, very intriguing, especially since they're both nominated for "Gravity". 

VISUAL EFFECTS

*Gravity-Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould

*The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug-Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds

*Iron Man 3-Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick

The Lone Ranger-Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier

*Star Trek Into Darkness-Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossman and Burt Dalton

Wow! "Pacific Rim" missing out Visual Effects, that is a shocker. That's usually a category that the Guillermo Del Toro film, just naturally have gotten into generally. Instead they went with "The Lone Ranger", um, which, not sure what to make of that especially since that was considered a film with only, Supporting special effects by the VES Awards for Special Effects, while "Pacific Rim" was considered an "Effects-Driven Picture" ; it doesn't really matter much because the award's going to "Gravity" although I thought "Pacific Rim" was the one that could've upset it, so that's slim going out the window. 

ANIMATED SHORT

*Feral-Dir.: Daniel Sousa; Pro.: Dan Golden

*Get a Horse!-Dir./Pro.: Lauen MacMullan; Pro.: Dorothy McKim

*Mr. Hublot-Laurent Witz and Alexandre Espigares

Possessions-Shuhei Morita

Room on the Broom-Max Lang & Jan Lachauer

Uh, very surprised, "Subconscious Password" did not get in; I toted that one a bit; I thought that was an obvious nominee. "Room on the Broom" I actually saw last night, is a telling of a-eh, popular children's book, but animation-wise, likes and feels like a children's book, but not particularly complicated, little surprised that got. Didn't know much on "Possessions", still think "Get a Horse!" is the clear favorite, Disney, Walt and Company literally, also, "Mr. Hublot", wouldn't be shocked. 


LIVE ACTION SHORT

*Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)-Esteban Crespo

Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)-Dir.: Xavier Legrand; Pro.: Alexandre Gavras

*Helium-Dir.: Anders Walter; Pro.: Kim Magnusson

Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)-Dir.: Selma Vihunen; Pro.: Kirsikka Saari

*The Voorman Problem-Dir.: Mark Gill; Pro.: Baldwin Li

I'm glad "Helium" got in, that one, I saw the trailer for, and looked amazing, but was surprised to find people like goldderby.com, not projecting it, glad I got that right. "The Voorman Problem" has a BAFTA nomination, stars Martin Freeman and other big names from the BBC, that one is a favorite, but I wouldn't rule out "Aquel No Era You" at all. Watch the trailer for it, it doesn't look like it a short, it looks like a feature and an expensive one at that. "Avant Que De Tout Perdre", probably the one I'm most surprised got in, that one looked good, not as impressive as some of the others, and "Pitakko Mun Kaikki Hoitaa", is the arbitrary comedy short nomination. 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

*CaveDigger-Jeffrey Karoff

*Facing Fear-Jason Cohen

*Karama Has No Walls-Sara Ishaq

*The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life-Dir./Pro.: Malcolm Clarke; Pro.: Nicholas Reed

Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall-Edgar Barens

Very surprised that "Jujitsuing Reality" didn't get in, 'cause that a short about a screenwriter who suffers from ALS and about the process of getting his big Hollywood film written and made, reminded me of "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly", the guy has a similar disease to him and is trying to accomplish as much. "Prison Terminal..." got that slot I guess, nothing else was too shocking. "The Lady in Number 6..." is the favorite, about the world's oldest pianist who's also the oldest Holocaust survivor. "Karama Has No Walls" has a shot too though. 

83 1/2 out of 122, let's do the math.... 68%, ugh. One of my worst years for predictions, time to make it up at the Academy. In the meantime, the only award that actually matters the Critics Choice Awards, are in less than an hour or so, in fact they already started on the East Coast, don't tell me! Sorry for the lateness of this analysis. Happy Oscar Nominations Day Everyone!