Wednesday, January 15, 2014

2013 FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS! (EVERY CATEGORY PREDICTED)!



Well, the countdown is on Guys, less than 24 hours until we wake up and some ungodly hour, and we fell asleep about twenty minutes earlier, to cover the Academy Awards Nominations! That's before we then watch the Critics Choice and SAG Awards, and then, after we forget about it for awhile, some moron will bring up our thoughts about the Razzies, and then we'll all beat the shit out of him for making us think about. Alright, I'm kidding the Razzies, no one's gonna care. Anyway, I'm sorry I'm a little later for this than normal, I'll be making it up to all of you, I promise, but I have painstakingly gone through every category, all 24 Oscars, and analyzed who is gonna to be nominated, and who they might beat out.

Now remember folks, these are not preferences, these are PREDICTIONS. I can't make preferences, I haven't seen all the films, besides, who cares, my choices wouldn't help you win any Oscar pool. And remember, we can go back to the last two times, I predicted every single nominee correctly both last year and the year before, and I'm the only one who's ever done that. You can check out my previous predictions at the links below:

http://davidbaruffi.blogspot.com/2013/01/2012-oscar-nomination-predictions-just_9.html
http://davidbaruffi.blogspot.com/2012/01/2011-oscar-nominees-predictions-my.html

(Note: David Baruffi's Entertainment Views and Reviews reserves all right to change and/or alter all his predictions, at any moment or time, prior to/up 'til or after the Oscar Nomination Announcements from now until the end of time x infinity)

Alright, we're not gonna keep you hanging much either by the way, so let's go through all the categories, start at the top with the big ones too, Best Picture!

BEST PICTURE (LIKELY POSSIBLES)
12 Years a Slave
42
A'Int Them Bodies Saints
All is Lost
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Blue is the Warmest Color
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Computer Chess
Dallas Buyers Club
Don Jon
Enough Said
Frances Ha
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Lone Survivor
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Mud
Nebraska
Philomena
The Place Beyond the Pines
Prisoners
Rush
Saving Mr. Banks
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Short Term 12
The Spectacular Now
Spring Breakers
Upstream Color
What Maisie Knew
The Wolf of Wall Street

I always try to make as long a list possible for the Best Picture category since they expanded it originally to ten, and now to a variable number between 5 and 10, which I'm personally against for the Oscars at least, (They should be the ones who say "These are the best of the best") but even when I've done this, I've occasionally be screwed over. Both "The Blind Side" and "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" got nominated, when I didn't even have them on my longlists, so I hope I'm casting a wide enough net. There's also consideration for how this category is chosen, it's a little different than most of the others as skews towards number 1 votes. Oscar voters actually place orders for this category, the top film, the second, third, etc., and then there's rounds and considerations, that are better left explained elsewhere, but basically, a % of number one votes are a nomination. So, which films, and how many, are getting those number one votes?

BEST PICTURE (PREDICTIONS)
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
*Dallas Buyers Club (If there's ten nominations)

I'm gonna predict nine nominees this year, because it's been nine the last couple years, and I've gotten screwed on that a couple, + I actually believe mathematically, that the way it's structured that for reason, it naturally skews itself to have nine nominees, strangely enough, not that I've taken a closer look on the math; I can't prove that completely, but I think more likely than not, we're gonna have a lot of nine nominee years. Anyway, the absolute guarantees are "12 Years a Slave", "Gravity" and "American Hustle," those are absolute locks. The rest I'm leaning towards because of the amount of #1 votes they might get. For instance, "Inside Llewyn Davis", will probably get a lot of #1 votes, but will also not show up on many ballots; it'll be a lot of ones or nothings for them. "Her", the same way. "The Wolf of Wall Street", I think will show up on more ballots, but it'll be off on a bunch. "Nebraska", the Alexander Payne constituent will show up. A couple other films could show up,"Blue Jasmine" for instance, I wouldn't be shocked by showing up, "The Butler" got a SAG Ensemble nomination, but I think that's a long shot here, as is "August: Osage County," which seems to be losing more and more steam, even in acting categories over the last few weeks. "Philomena" might also show up, I'm basically picking "Dallas Buyers Club" after Critics Choice and Producer's Guild nominations, to be the tenth nominee if there is one, but I'm not 100%. This does seem to be a weird year, where it feels like something's gonna come outta nowhere, which worries me a lot, 'cause last year for instance, we knew, there was about 11 movies that the nomination could be, this year, there's a lot more options. "Blue is the Warmest Color", could be a player here too, 'cause it isn't eligible for Best Foreign Film, and it's not unprecedented for the Academy to honor a foreign film they really like in other major categories.


BEST DIRECTOR (Likely possibles)
Woody Allen-"Blue Jasmine"
Shane Carruth-"Upstream Color"
J.C. Chandor-"All is Lost"
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen-"Inside Llewyn Davis"
Ryan Coogler-"Fruitvale Station"
Alfonso Cuaron-"Gravity"
Paul Greengrass-"Captain Phillips
John Lee Hancock-"Saving Mr. Banks"
Ron Howard-"Rush"
Spike Jonze-"Her"
Abdellatif Kechiche-"Blue is the Warmest Color"
Steve McQueen-"12 Years a Slave"
Jeff Nichols-"Mud"
Alexander Payne-"Nebraska"
David O. Russell-"American Hustle"
Martin Scorsese-"The Wolf of Wall Street"

Well, I think it best to presume last year was a bizarre anomaly and that, the DGA is gonna be a pretty good predictor for this award this year. They nominated, Cuaron, McQueen, who are as close to absolute locks as you can get, and I'm gonna presume David O. Russell is too, because he got the nomination last year, without a DGA nod, and this is a much better film, and he nominated for "The Fighter" a couple years ago, again, when I thought he wouldn't be nominated, so I think the Academy really wants to give it to Russell eventually, and they nominated Scorsese and Greengrass. It's a little hard to judge how the Academy feels on "Captain Phillips" entirely, and there's mix reports about "The Wolf of Wall Street" screenings, so I'm looking around a bit. The Coens stole a nomination from Danny Boyle a few years back, so you know they're in the mix, and Spike Jonze has also won some prominent Critics Awards, but he's been overlooked as well, and again, it's hard to judge some of these films and how they think about them. Interesting note here, that if Steve McQueen gets a nomination, he'll be the third person of African descent nominated in the category, and the first African-Brit, nominated, only John Singleton and Lee Daniels have been nominated before.

BEST DIRECTOR (PREDICTION)
Alfonso Cuaron-"Gravity"
Steve McQueen-"12 Years a Slave"
Spike Jonze-"Her"
David O. Russell-"American Hustle"
Martin Scorsese-"The Wolf of Wall Street"

Yeah, not confident at all, in who gets the fourth and fifth spots, but I think they're gonna nominate Scorsese, partially because he's Scorsese, partially for the film, and really, the only reason I'm going with Jonze over Greengrass is that I think "Her" is a little more well-regarded right now, than "Captain Phillips," and again, I can never eliminate the Coens from showing up here. I don't really see a scenario with another name showing up, maybe Alexander Payne, maybe "Nebraska" doesn't get lost in the shuffle, but I think it's too likely that it will. And maybe like Haneke last year, they might go with a foreign film route, in that case, Kechiche, is the the most likely option, but I just can't find the room for them, unless something really weird happens like last year.


BEST ACTOR (Likely possibles)
Christian Bale-"American Hustle"
Chadwick Bozeman-"42"
Steve Coogan-"Philomena"
Bruce Dern-"Nebraska"
Leonardo DiCaprio-"The Wolf of Wall Street"
Chiwetel Ejiofor-"12 Years a Slave"
Idris Elba-"Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"
Tom Hanks-"Captain Phillips"
Ethan Hawke-"Before Midnight"
Oscar Isaac-"Inside Llewyn Davis"
Michael B. Jordan-"Fruitvale Station"
Matthew McConaughey-"Dallas Buyers Club"
Matthew McConaughey-"Mud"
Mads Mikelssen-"The Hunt"
Joaquin Phoenix-"Her"
Robert Redford-"All is Lost"
Tye Sheridan-"Mud"
Mark Wahlberg-"Lone Survivor"
Isaiah Washington-"Blue Caprice"
Forest Whitaker-"Lee Daniels' The Butler"

Did anybody get completely thrown off when Forest Whitaker's name showed up as a SAG nominee? That nomination, came out of absolutely nowhere to me, and now suddenly, he's jumped from, probably not even being written on this long list, to serious nominee contender. And don't discard a weird SAG nomination either; I learned that one years ago, when at the very last second, I took out Leonardo DiCaprio's name for "J. Edgar", and wrote in Demian Bichir for "A Better Life", being one of the few people who correctly predicted him as a nominee. That said, be a little careful, 'cause sometimes you need to look around a second. For instance, "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "Inglourious Basterds" weren't SAG eligible last year, both got major acting nominees, and in Christoph Waltz's case, he actually won the Oscar, so it's a little erratic the SAGs as Oscar predictors, sometimes they're dead on, other times they're clearly way off. (They're Ensemble nomination for "The Butler" as well, is a be-careful second look nominee too.) Anyway, if there's one thing I really want to see come Oscar nomination announcement day, I think he will, he might even win the Oscar this year, but I want to see Chiwetel Ejiofor get nominated. This guy's one of the Best Actors in the world; I first really notice him, a dozen years ago in "Dirty Pretty Things", which I thought he should've been nominated for that year, and he's just been a great actor in numerous films since, often in supporting roles, sometimes in really good leads like "Redbelt", for instance, never gets the credit he deserves; he's probably the nomination I'm most looking forward to seeing.

BEST ACTOR (PREDICTIONS)
Bruce Dern-"Nebraska"
Chiwetel Ejiofor-"12 Years a Slave"
Tom Hanks-"Captain Phillips"
Matthew McConaughey-"Dallas Buyers Club"
Joaquin Phoenix-"Her"

There's more Academy members in the Actors branch than any other, by a mile too, so I don't want to go against the SAGs too much overall. Bruce Dern, Ejiofor, and I'm gonna say Tom Hanks are basically locks, Hanks is a little iffy 'cause he might also get a Supporting Actor nod, but I think more people liked "Captain Phillips" than "Saving Mr. Banks". Christian Bale, I'm a little concerned about, but "American Hustle" did surprisingly weak at the SAGs, despite a Ensemble nod. DiCaprio, always seems to get overlooked; I see that trend continuing. Michael B. Jordan might be a surprise nomination; I wouldn't leave that film out completely, despite it's lack of Awards, everywhere except the Spirit Awards. I'm tempted to throw in Oscar Isaac as well, but, Michael Stuhlbarg wasn't nominated for "A Serious Man" despite a Best Picture and Writing nod, so there's precedent for that with Coen Brothers films. I really don't know how to judge Forest Whitaker's spot, the Academy does like him a lot, deservedly so, he's one of the very best actors around, has been for years; his Oscar for "The Last King of Scotland" was pretty much an award for his entire career, also, partially a makeup for him no getting nominated for "Bird" as well, plus a great performance in a good film, too, but I'm just not sure I see him getting nominated. So, that leaves, McConaughey's who's won a few awards for "Dallas Buyers Club", which isn't getting Best Picture buzz like it was, and is mostly getting press for Supporting Actor more than Lead, Phoenix, who was nominated last year, despite him basically pissing all over the Oscars, so obviously the Academy just doesn't care what he says, they'll nominate anyway, and the other wild card is Robert Redford. (Deep Sigh) Something just feels way off, about him not getting a SAG nomination; I thought he was a lock until then, and it just feels like the Albert Brooks thing with "Drive," it might look obvious, that something was an oversight, and it'll get corrected for the Oscars, but then, low-and-behold, they didn't think it was an oversight. For that reason, I'm going against the grain, and say Phoenix gets in.


BEST ACTRESS (Likely possibles)
Amy Adams-"American Hustle"
Cate Blanchett-"Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock-"Gravity"
Judi Dench-"Philomena"
Julie Delpy-"Before Midnight"
Adele Exarchopoulos-"Blue is the Warmest Color"
Greta Gerwig-"Frances Ha"
Gaby Hoffman-"Crystal Fairy and the Magical Cactus & 2012"
Scarlet Johansson-"Don Jon"
Brie Larson-"Short Term 12"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus-"Enough Said"
Amy Seimetz-"Upstream Color"
Meryl Streep-"August: Osage County"
Emma Thompson-"Saving Mr. Banks"
Kate Winslet-"Labor Day"
Shailene Woodley-"The Spectacular Now"

If the SAG nods hold true of Blanchett, Bullock, Dench, Streep and Thompson, than we'll have a real strange anomaly, five former Oscar Winners in the same category. That happened last year in Supporting Actor, but that happening in Lead Actress would be a bigger shock. (And BTW, I don't think it's happened before, other than last year, in any category, certainly not in acting category previously) Well, now comes the question of it holding true.

BEST ACTRESS (PREDICTIONS)
Amy Adams-"American Hustle"
Cate Blanchett-"Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock-"Gravity"
Judi Dench-"Philomena"
Adele Exarchopoulos-"Blue is the Warmest Color"

Boy, when I can't figure out how to get Greta Gerwig, Gaby Hoffman or Julie Delpy into this category, (and I've seen all three of those performances, they should be in) than this better be a good year for the category, 'cause it's loaded. Strangely, I thing Meryl Streep might get knocked out, because "August: Osage County" seems to be the film going downhill in praise the fastest. I wouldn't be completely shocked if Brie Larson pulled a nomination here either. The only other name I'm concerned over is Emma Thompson, 'cause I'm unsure on whether enough Academy members liked "Saving Mr. Banks," enough, but she's been nominated in weird spots before; she's a great actress, she hasn't been nominated for awhile, etc., I think even in an iffy movie critically, she'll still get in. Happened before with John Lee Hancock films; Sandra Bullock won for "The Blind Side".... I'll fairly certain Blanchett, Bullock and Dench are absolute locks, and to me it's a toss-up between Amy Adams and Adele Exarchopoulos for the last spot; I can be completely off on "Blue is the Warmest Color"; but I just have a feeling it's gonna get something in a major category out of nowhere; it wasn't eligible for SAGs, so if there is a shocker nod, that's the movie to look at, and if it wasn't Amy Adams I'd be 100% on it, but boy, I hate finding a reason to knock off, especially since she's practically a lock every year for a nomination, (and I've seen her performance too, it'd be a crime if she's not nominated in any other year.) but she was overlooked for Lead for "Enchanted" once before, so there's some precedent; Best Actress is usually a safer bet for a Foreign language performance nod than Best Actor,...- I can see the chips falling either way, but it's six nominees and five spots, coin flip for the last one, I'm taking the shocker and picking Exarchopoulos. No, I'm picking Adams. No, Exarchopoulos. AGH! Oh screw it, sorry Emma Thompson, you're out!


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (Likely possibles)
Barkhad Abdi-"Captain Phillips"
Casey Affleck-"Out of the Furnace"
Daniel Bruhl-"Rush"
George Clooney-"Gravity"
Bradley Cooper-"American Hustle"
Leonardo DiCaprio-"The Great Gatsby"
Michael Fassbender-"12 Years of Slave"
Harrison Ford-"42"
John Goodman-"Inside Llewyn Davis"
Will Forte-"Nebraska"
James Franco-"Spring Breakers"
James Gandolfini-"Enough Said"
Ryan Gosling-"The Place Beyond the Pines"
Jake Gyllenhaal-"Prisoners"
Tom Hanks-"Saving Mr. Banks"
Jonah Hill-"The Wolf of Wall Street"
Jared Leto-"Dallas Buyers Club"
Matthew McConaughey-"Mud"
Jeremy Renner-"American Hustle"
Sam Rockwell-"The Way Way Back"
Keith Stanfield-"Short Term 12"

Well, if there's any sure thing at this year's Oscar (knock on wood) is probably Jared Leto winning for Best Supporting Actor, everything seems to be turning his way. After that, it seems like the same names keep showing up enough to presume a few favorites, but, then, you get a weird outside nominees that are winning a few awards like Hanks, or Franco, or Forte, that have a shot at sneaking in, and seem to each have critical and popular support, but boy do they need to catch every single vote and break. Probably the trickiest possible nomination to judge is the late James Gandolfini for "Enough Said". He got a SAG nod, he got a Critic Choice nod, that said, there aren't too many other nominations available for that film, it's almost impossible for him to win, do they really want to use a nomination, just to honor him, even if it's for a supposed second-tier film? His name was left off for the Golden Globes, maybe that's something, but it's not much. This category is either going chalk, or it's gonna go in a completely opposite direction, outside of Leto.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (PREDICTIONS)
Barkhad Abdi-"Captain Phillips"
Daniel Bruhl-"Rush"
Michael Fassbender-"12 Years a Slave"
James Gandolfini-"Enough Said"
Jared Leto-"Dallas Buyers Club

I'm gonna go, with the same 5 as the SAGs, it's not that I don't think someone else can steal a slot, or two, or even three; I think there's room here for some upset nods getting in, but there doesn't seem to be enough deviation among the major awards, from the Guild to really test that theory; plus with Gandolfini being a wild card as it, I just don't see the scenarios or roads playing out for some on the outside looking in. The two that would shock me the least getting in, would be Bradley Cooper, which, is gonna depend on, just how much did the Academy like "American Hustle", which can just as easily get shutout of acting nods, or it can just as easily sweep them all; and the other one is Will Forte, 'cause he has won some of the major Awards, including the National Board of Review Award, that's a big one, but the Oscars have not been trending well for typically comedic actors going into dramatic supporting roles, in recent years; honestly I couldn't even name one offhand, maybe since Robin Williams won, and Forte is not that big a name yet; so he's another one that it just doesn't look in the cards for him now. I wouldn't be shocked if Daniel Bruhl's name is left out either, "Rush" is a bit of mixed reviewed film, and his nomination feels odd too, but I'm just not finding the math.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Likely possibles)
Melanie Diaz-"Fruitvale Station"
Naomie Harris-"Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"
Sally Hawkins-"Blue Jasmine"
Scarlett Johansson-"Her"
Jennifer Lawrence-"American Hustle"
Evangeline Lilly-"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
Margo Martindale-"August: Osage County"
Lupita Nyong'o-"12 Years a Slave"
Julia Roberts-"August: Osage County"
Yolanda Ross-"Go for Sisters"
Lea Seydoux-"Blue is the Warmest Color"
Octavia Spencer-"Fruitvale Station"
June Squibb-"Nebraska"
Emma Thompson-"Saving Mr. Banks"
Emily Watson-"The Book Thief"
Oprah Winfrey-"Lee Daniels' The Butler"
Reese Witherspoon-"Mud"
Shailene Woodley-"The Spectacular Now"

If there's a category to look around this year, for somebody completely off the board, this is the category. It was like that last year with Jacki Weaver's surprise nomination, so I'm looking around. I know a few names I got in the back of my mind, like Joanna Vanderham for "What Maisie Knew", possibly somebody outside the expected from "August: Osage County", like Margo Martindale would be possible. Maybe Reese Witherspoon for "Mud", but what I'm really worried about is someone like Amy Adams, getting votes for both categories, and then slipping into Supporting. There are rule regarding this actually, and when an Actor/actress gets votes for both in the lead and supporting categories, for the same role, both votes are combined, and then the nomination, if there's enough votes, is placed in the category for which the actor/actress got the most votes. There's been a few incidents in recent years, like Hailee Steinfeld for "True Grit" although the one that really threw people off was Kate Winslet for "The Reader" who had been winning most every award for Best Supporting Actress by every award show, and was getting nominations for Lead Actress for "Revolutionary Road" (She actually won Golden Globes for both in the same year.) but then the Oscars nods got announced, and her name showed up in Lead Actress for the movie, completely screwing up everyone's ballot predictions.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (PREDICTIONS)
Jennifer Lawrence-"American Hustle"
Lupita Nyong'o-"12 Years a Slave"
Octavia Spencer-"Fruitvale Station"
June Squibb-"Nebraska"
Oprah Winfrey-"Lee Daniels' The Butler"

Well, Lawrence, Nyong'o and Winfrey, are locks, and I'm gonna say that with a SAG nomination, Squibb gets in, 'cause she's also a sentimental favorite. I'm knocking out Sally Hawkins because the Oscars have ignored her more than once, especially for "Happy-Go-Lucky" which really made no sense then or now, so I'm not particularly confident in her getting a nomination, despite some acclaim. Scarlett Johansson, is definitely the most interesting name out there for a possible nomination, she would be the first person nominated for a voice over performance alone if she got in, that said though, Robin Williams wasn't nominated for "Aladdin", Eddie Murphy, not nominated for "Shrek", primarily CGI-nods have been mostly non-existent except for Brad Pitt in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", I can't take a shot at her getting in until there's a precedent set. So who gets left out, Julia Roberts actually. Which also doesn't feel completely right, but I think she's the odd one out, and I think Octavia Spencer, is gonna sneak in for "Fruitvale Station". I don't think the Academy wants to ignore it completely, they gave the award to Octavia a couple years ago, with most every other category overloaded, this could be the place, although I won't bet the house on it. BTW, if I'm wrong on a few of these, there's a second weird scenario with the acting nominees, where all four categories, could get a nomination, deservedly so, for "American Hustle". If that happens, it'll be the second time, in two years, which is bizarre in of itself, since that didn't happen previously since 1980, with "Reds", but if "American Hustle" pulls that off, it'll be twice in two years, for the same director, David O. Russell.


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (Likely possibles)
"12 Years a Slave"-John Ridley
"August: Osage County"-Tracy Letts
"Before Midnight"-Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke
"Blue is the Warmest Color"-Abdellatif Kechiche & Ghalia Lacroix
"Captain Phillips"-Billy Ray
"Lee Daniels' The Butler"-Danny Strong
"Lone Survivor"-Peter Berg
"Philomena"-Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
"The Spectacular Now"-Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
"What Maisie Knew"-Nancy Doyne & Carroll Cartwright
"The Wolf of Wall Street"-Terence Winter

Honestly, there doesn't seem to be too many chances for outside nods in Adapted Screenplay this year, which is good for me, because I've predicted this category exactly right the last two years. Now that said, there's an important note with the Writing Oscar, in that, the Guild Awards can't be trusted completely here, because the rules state that only WGA members are eligible for that awards, hence, the lack of a "12 Years a Slave" nomination, for John Ridley, among others. So, that's something to keep an eye on, and they can be very different from the Oscars.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (PREDICTIONS)
12 Years a Slave-John Ridley
Before Midnight-Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips-Billy Ray
Philomena-Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
The Wolf of Wall Street-Terrence Winter

Peter Berg's "Lone Survivor" would've been a longshot at best, even if "12 Years...." was eligible, I think despite the WGA nod, it's reasonable to assume they're out. The other WGA nod though, "August: Osage County", I'm gonna go against the odds here and bet against it, this is a hunch that the Academy as a whole, doesn't like "August...", however, Tracy Letts, hard to bet against him. If you don't know who Tracy Letts is, look him up, he's an award-winning playwright, who's works been adapted to the films "Killer Joe" and "Bug" before "August..." which won a Pulitzer, he's also a Tony-winning Actor as well. I hear he plays the-eh, bad guy Senator on "Homeland" lately. This guy's multi-talented, but he's adapting his own play. So here's where, I'm knocking him out, because he's adapting his own play, I'm gonna suspect that he doesn't get nominated, because it might've been less work, to adapt that play from the stage to the screen, and the writing branch might pick up on that, while, say "Before Midnight", is an original work, that's inspired and adapted from another work; there's a tendency to be more appreciative of that. The last nomination, is somewhat debatable between "Blue is the Warmest Color" and "Philomena", but I think I'm going with "Philomena", partly because, Steve Coogan's another great actor/writer who they've been wanting to nominate him for awhile too, and this is the most acclaim he's gotten for his writing, etc. This is the spot for Coogan.


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (Likely possibles)
"Afternoon Delight"-Jill Soloway
"American Hustle"-Eric Singer and David O. Russell
"Blue Jasmine"-Woody Allen
"Dallas Buyers Club"-Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
"Don Jon"-Joseph Gordon-Levitt
"Enough Said"-Nicole Holofcener
"Fruitvale Station"-Ryan Coogler
"Gravity"-Alfonso Cuaron and Jonas Cuaron
"Her"-Spike Jonze
"In a World..."-Lake Bell
"Inside Llewyn Davis"-Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Nebraska"-Bob Nelson
"Prisoners"-Aaron Guzikowski
"Rush"-Peter Morgan
"Saving Mr. Banks"-Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith
"Short Term 12"-Destin Cretton
"Stories We Tell"-Sarah Polley
"Wadjda"-Haifaa Al Mansour

As usual, a lot more plausible choices than Adapted, but still not easy to determine the nominees. The WGA nominated, "American Hustle," "Blue Jasmine", "Dallas Buyers...", "Her" and "Nebraska", but where do you fit in, the Coens, and "Gravity". I know, it is easier to honor "Gravity"'s directing, but, that still had to be a conceived idea, and written on paper, good enough to get made. It's weird that the Coens weren't nominated too.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (PREDICTIONS)
American Hustle-Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Dallas Buyers Club-Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
Gravity-Alfonso Cuaron & Jonas Cuaron
Her-Spike Jonze
Nebraska-Bob Nelson

(Sigh) Sorry Woody, not this year. I'm also gonna take a shot and knock out "Inside Llewyn Davis" despite it being a non-Payne-penned script, so it's possible that that could be overlooked. He's been overlooked before too, for "About Schmidt" which oddly wasn't nominated for a Writing nomination, but he also has two Oscars, so I'm not crying over it.


ANIMATED FEATURE (Possibles)
"Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2"
"The Croods"
"Despicable Me 2"
"Epic"
"Ernest and Celestine"
"The Fake"
"Free Birds"
"Frozen"
"Khumba"
"The Legend of Sarila"
"A Letter to Momo"
"Monsters University"
"O Apostolo (The Apostle)"
"Planes"
"Puella Magi Madoka Magica the Movie--Rebellion"
"Rio 2096: A Story of Love and Fury"
"The Smurfs 2"
"Turbo"
"The Wind Rises"

Okay, those are the 19 eligible films for the category of Best Animated Feature. Well, first observation is, I haven't heard of half of these films, second is that, the ones I have heard of, were mostly remarkably underwhelming. Last couple years, hasn't been super great for animated films, so it shouldn't be too surprising, but it makes it harder to single out nominees in recent years. Even sure things sometimes look wrong and are deceiving.

ANIMATED FEATURE (PREDICTIONS)
The Croods
Frozen
O Apostolo (The Apostle)
Rio 2096: A Story of Love and Fury
The Wind Rises

The votes for most of the Awards have been split between "Frozen" and "The Wind Rises" so far, so I'm fairly confident those two are getting nominated, it's the rest of the nods that are up for grabs. I think "The Croods" is beloved enough to get in, and "Rio 2096..." did win much awards and acclaim, inside the animated community, so I'm gonna take a shot and say they get in, and I'm debating between "O Apostolo" and "A Letter to Momo". The latter is an anime from Japan, and "Rio 2096..." is South American, and "O Apostolo" is Spanish, so, what-the-hell, let's stay true to the geography, and pick "O Apostolo" making four different continents getting nominations in the category.


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (Possibles)
"The Act of Killing"
"The Armstrong Lie"
"Blackfish"
"The Crash Reel"
"Cutie and the Boxer"
"Dirty Wars"
"First Cousin Once Removed"
"God Loves Uganda"
"Life According to Sam"
"Pussy Riot: A Punk's Prayer"
"The Square"
"Stories We Tell"
"20 Feet from Stardom"
"Tim's Vermeers"
"Which Way is the Front Line From Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington"

Well, it's not last year's crop of documentaries, but it's not two years ago's either. This is another category that's always a little unpredictable, and it doesn't help that a complete consensus hasn't been reached yet. "The Act of Killing" and "Stories We Tell" seem to be the two most likely to win, "The Act of Killing" has been sneaking into some awards' non-documentary categories. So, those two, fairly certain on. The issue is that, since a committee comes up with the nominations, following the award trends doesn't always help in this category, and you also want to keep an eye on the subject matter. That's not always a determinate but you gotta keep it in mind.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
Pussy Riot: A Punk's Prayer
The Square
Stories We Tell

Yeah, I'm gonna take a shot and say "Blackfish" doesn't get in, which I'm sure might be on most people's shortlist (And it'd be a deserving nominee), but the category seems a little too loaded for them to pull through. The other ones I was debating over, were "The Armstrong Lie", "Life According to Sam", and "Tim's Vermeer", the latter of those, I'm a little worried about leaving off, 'cause it did get some Guild recognition, but as a subject matter call, I think it has a hard time to believably get in. So, "20 Feet", which is the movie about background singers, "The Square," which was about Egypt's revolution, and to be really current, I think they're gonna go with "Pussy Riot...". Just a hunch there; this category is unpredictable folks, I can easily get all five of these wrong.


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (Possibles)
"The Broken Circle Breakdown" (Belgium)
"An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker" (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
"The Grandmaster" (Hong Kong)
"The Great Beauty" (Italy)
"The Hunt" (Denmark)
"The Missing Picture" (Cambodia)
"The Notebook" (Hungary)
"Omar" (Palestine)
"Two Lives (Germany)

Well, the biggest controversy coming into this one was that "Blue is the Warmest Color" didn't meet the eligibility guidelines to be consider for France's nomination, so they're out, although it wasn't a guarantee they were getting in either. These are the final nine, so I'm gonna get at least one right here. Cambodia's entry is a documentary sorta speak, about the Khmer Rouge atrocities, told with archival footage, clay figures and a narrator, so that's probably the most intriguing of the bunch here, for being so different, but I'm still leaning against it, because while documentaries are eligible in this categories, even creative ones, like "Pina" for instance, which got to this stage in the nominating process two years ago, (And should've been nominated) for some reason, they don't seem to sneak in, but still, that's the movie that's the big wild card in this group, for being so different.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (Predictions)
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
Omar (Palestine)

The only one of these nominations I've seen yet was "The Hunt", which, I actually-eh, don't particularly think was good enough for this category, so I'm a little behind the eight ball here, but "The Great Beauty" has been winning numerous awards, from critics groups and whatnot, as has "The Broken Circle Breakdown", especially across Europe it's done well, and-eh, Belgian films have been doing well in this category recently. Paolo Sorrentino is a well-liked director of the Academy too. I'm tempted to throw in "Two Lives" somewhere, 'cause I'm not as sold that-eh, Wong Kar-Wai's "The Grandmaster" and Thomas Vinterberg's "The Hunt" are locks, just because of the directors behind them, but it's hard to completely bet against them. And "Omar" is from the same director who won the Oscar a few years ago for "Paradise Now", and this one looks just as interesting, so I'm putting him in too.


CINEMATOGRAPHY (Likely possibles)
"12 Years a Slave"-Sean Bobbit
"All is Lost"-Frank G. DeMarco
"American Hustle"-Linus Sandgren
"Captain Phillips"-Barry Ackroyd
"Computer Chess"-Matthias Grunsky
"Frances Ha"-Sam Levy
"The Grandmaster"-Phillipe Le Sourd
"Gravity"-Emmanuel Lubezki
"The Great Beauty"-Luca Bigazzi
"The Great Gatsby"-Simon Duggan
"Her"-Hoyte Van Hoytema
"Inside Llewyn Davis"-Bruno Delbonnel
"Nebraska"-Phedon Papamichael
"Prisoners"-Roger Deakins
"Rush"-Anthony Dod Mantle
"The Secret Life of Walter Mitty"-Stuart Dryburgh
"Spring Breakers"-Benoit Debie
"To the Wonder"-Emmanuel Lubezki

I think most scenarios of the Cinematography Oscar have the award going to Emmanuel Lubezki for "Gravity", although I would like to see him get nominated for "To the Wonder", a lack of a ASC Award nominations makes that unlikely. Along with "Gravity", the ASC nods went to "12 Years a Slave", "Captain Phillips", "The Grandmaster", "Inside Llewyn Davis" "Nebraska" and "Prisoners". There aren't too many outside of that, although I would be reluctant to knock out "The Great Gatsby" in any technical category. Also, "Rush", "All is Lost" and "The Great Beauty" could be spoilers, but those are longshots and I could be guessing there.

CINEMATOGRAPHY (PREDICTIONS)
12 Years a Slave-Sean Bobbit
Captain Phillips-Barry Ackroyd
The Grandmaster-Philippe Le Sourd
Gravity-Emmanuel Lubezki
Prisoners-Roger Deakins

It's getting tricky to figure out scenarios for "Inside Llewyn Davis" to get nominations. "Captain Phillips", shot over water for much of the film, that's gonna be a likely nominee, "12 Years a Slave" likely to show up in many technical categories, as many as "Gravity" probably. They also always go Wong Kar-Wai's films, who's a trademark is incredible cinematography. And, while I'm tempted to go somewhere else since "Prisoners" is considered more of a second tier film, but Roger Deakins, it's about as impossible for him not to get nominated as it is impossible for him to win. I don't know how that keeps happening; frankly if it was up to me, I wouldn't nominate him this year; he just doesn't have a shot, it seems mean. He's had ten nominations no wins, or whatever it is, which is ridiculous, but he always seems to run into a "Gravity".


EDITING (Likely nominees)
"12 Years a Slave"-Joe Walker
"All is Lost"-Pete Beaudreau
"American Hustle"-Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
"August: Osage County"-Stephen Mirrione
"Captain Phillips"-Christopher Rouse
"Frances Ha"-Jennifer Lame
"Filth"-Mark Eckersley
"Gravity"-Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger
"Her"-Eric Zumbrunnen & Jeff Buchanan
"Inside Llewyn Davis"-Roderick Jaynes
"Museum Hours"-Jem Cohens & Marc Vives
"Nebraska"-Kevin Tent
"Prisoners"-Gary D. Roach and Joel Cox
"Rush"-Dan Hanley and Mike Hill
"Saving Mr. Banks"-Mark Livolsi
"Short Term 12"-Nat Sanders
"Una Noche"-Cindy Lee
"Upstream Color"-Shane Carruth & David Lowery
"The Wolf of Wall Street"-Thelma Schoonmaker

On top of being the only award that's a better Best Picture predictor than the Oscars, the ACE Awards, or the Eddies, the Editors Guild, is one of the most accurate predictors of any Guild Award traditionally. Now, they do have separate categories for Dramatic Feature and Comedy/Musical feature, so they have a couple chances. That said, the only real exception to the Editing Award as a Best Picture predictor, is an action movie with lots of chase scenes, with the curious omission of "Rush" by the guild seem more foreboding for the film that most. Chase scenes, are by a mile, the toughest things to edit, and editors know that.

EDITING (PREDICTIONS
12 Years a Slave-
Joe Walker
American Hustle-Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
Captain Phillips-Christopher Rouse
Gravity-Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger
The Wolf of Wall Street-Thelma Schoonmaker

I don't see any real surprises here, I think Kevin Tent for "Nebraska" might have the most decent shot of sneaking into the category, but I can't tell which one they'd knock out. Same with "Her" and "Inside Llewyn Davis". If there is something weird, it might be "All is Lost' or "Upstream Color", but those are extreme long shots. This category more than most, seem to be what it looks like, so I'm betting the favorites.


COSTUME DESIGN (Likely possibles)
"12 Years a Slave"-Patricia Norris
"American Hustle"-Michael Wilkinson
"Blue Jasmine"-Suzy Benzinger
"Dallas Buyers Club"-Kurt & Bart
"The Grandmaster"-William Chang
"The Great Gatsby"-Catherine Martin
"Her"-Casey Storm
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"-Bob Buck, Ann Maskrey and Richark Taylor
"The Hunger Games: Catching Fire"-Trish Summerville
"The Invisible Woman"-Michael O'Connor
"Oz the Great and Powerful"-Gary Jones and Michael Kutsche
"Philomena"-Consolata Boyle
"Rush"-Julian Day
"Saving Mr. Banks"-Daniel Orlandi
"The Secret Life of Walter Mitty"-Sarah Edwards
"Stoker"-Kurt & Bart

Well, the CDG (Costume Designers Guild) separated this into Contemporary, Period and Fantasy, similar to the Production Designers, so usually nominees come from that group. A couple contemporaries that could slip in are "Blue Jasmine" and "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty", but I tend to thing, we're looking period and fantasy here mainly. "Dallas Buyers Club", I can't quite get a handle on, despite Jared Leto's wardrobe, that might be, one that's a little difficult to consider, especially considering how much more work was probably put into something like "American Hustle" or "The Great Gatsby", and certainly as much as "The Hunger Games". Hmm. Tough one.

COSTUME DESIGN (PREDICTIONS)
12 Years a Slave-Patricia Norris
American Hustle-Michael Wilkinson
The Great Gatsby-Catherine Martin
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire-Trish Sommerville
Saving Mr. Banks-Daniel Orlandi

I'm a little hesistant not to include "The Hobbit..." here, but I'm gonna take a shot and think that they preferred "The Hunger Games" those costumes over them, as well as the other fantasy nominee "Oz the Great and Powerful". Other than that, the rest are fairly predictable. Again, "Dallas Buyers Club", might sneak in pass "Saving Mr. Banks," but I don't quite think it will.


PRODUCTION DESIGN (Likely possibles)
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Elysium
Gravity
The Great Beauty
The Great Gatsby
Her
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Invisible Woman
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Oblivion
Oz the Great and Powerful
Rush
Saving Mr. Banks
Star Trek Into Darkness
The Wolf of Wall Street

The Art Directing Guild is certainly thorough. 15 nomination across, Period, Contemporary and Fantasy films. Now, nine times out of ten, the contemporary nominees are red herrings, and usually only one or two get in from that group, but in this case, with some elaborate design in films like "Blue Jasmine", "The Wolf of Wall Street", "Her", "Captain Phillips", it's actually tougher than normal to eliminate them completely. There's a big misconception that films that take place in more modern times are easier to do than period films, but that's actually the opposite. Hollywood is a stage, and just like the theater, we keep all the crap we use, in case we have to do the play later. So, we actually have all the period film stuff saved, some for decades, but creating something that takes place, say, 10 or 15 years earlier? Well, how much stuff do you have from that long ago still? That's what I thought, and things change a lot more often and a lot quicker nowadays too; it can actually be harder to recreate that kind of time period. Still though, the Guild usually usually looks period, 'cause a lot of it is still hard, and the design aspect is much more difficult.

PRODUCTION DESIGN (PREDICTIONS)
12 Years a Slave-Pro.: Adam Stockhausen; Set: Alice Baker
American Hustle-Pro.: Judy Becker; Set: Heather Loeffler
Gravity-Pro.: Andy Nicholson; Set: Rosie Goodwin
The Great Gatsby-Pro.: Catherine Martin; Set.: Beverly Dunn
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug-Pro.: Dan Hennah; Set: Ra Vincent

There's a quite a few I'm worried about leaving off here, for instance, "Inside Llewyn Davis" and "The Wolf of Wall Street" as well as "Saving Mr. Banks". (I also think "Blue Jasmine" probably has an outside shot) "12 Years...", "...Hustle", "Gravity" and "...Gatsby", they're practically guaranteed locks. The last one's a little trickier, but I think it's almost always a safer bet to go with a fantasy option, and the best of those looks like "The Hobbit...". Tough call though. This is a good year for the Academy to consider breaking this category down by time period/genre as well, maybe in the future. This was an unusually good year for production design, and even more strangely, in good films.


MAKE-UP AND HAIR (Possibles)
"American Hustle"
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"The Great Gatsby"
"Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters"
"The Hunger Games: Catching Fire"
"Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa"
"The Lone Ranger"

There are no Guild Awards for Hair & Make-Up anymore, so while there are a few awards out there, this category can be a bit of a crapshoot. I don't know why they limit the nominations to three films each year, I think there easily could be five. Probably the big name that didn't make the Academy shortlist was "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug", so that throws a little crink in some of the expected nominations. Another name that received multiple awards and is absent here was "Lee Daniels' The Butler", which got a BAFTA and a Critics Choice nomination. "American Hustle" showed up on both of them as well, so they're a presumptive nominee, and I suspect "The Great Gatsby" is likely as well, but the third nomination is completely up in the air. Don't let titles like "Hansel & Gretel..." and "...Bad Grandpa" fool you, either; the craftsmen in the Make-Up and Hair Branch of the Academy, will always look craft first. This is the category that famously nominated "Norbit" remember? And un-apologetically at that.

MAKE-UP AND HAIR (PREDICTIONS)
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters

I'm about 99% certain that "American Hustle" is gonna get in, but if one of the other two don't get it, I'd say most likely, "Dallas Buyers Club" could sneak in here, maybe even knock out "...Gatsby", but given the tendency of the award, I think they're gonna lean toward at least one, really well-done prosthetic based makeup and hair here, and clearly, "Hansel & Gretel" has the most uses work in regards of exploiting that, plus they did it well really well in that one. I guess "The Hunger Games..." has shot, but while there were, a few eccentric uses of makeup, I think they're fewer and far between and less essential in that film. "Bad Grandpa", is basically one really good prosthetic, and only one; I would be a little shocked if that truly was enough for that film to get in. "The Lone Ranger", maybe, but I think "Hansel & Gretel..." are more likely in, a lot of the makeup in "The Lone Ranger", actually looked good, but rather ordinary to me. In terms of, how essential it is to the film, mixed with it's execution, these three look, the most likely nominees.


ORIGINAL SCORE (Likely possibles)
"12 Years a Slave"-Hans Zimmer
"All is Lost"-Alex Ebert
"The Book Thief"-John Williams
"Captain Phillips"-Henry Jackman
"Gravity"-Steven Price
"Her"-William Butler and Owen Pallett
"Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"-Alex Heffes
"Mud"-David Wingo
"Philomena"-Alexander Desplat
"Rush"-Hans Zimmer
"Saving Mr. Banks"-Thomas Newman
"The Secret Life of Walter Mitty"Theodore Shaprio

Well, here's something weird, I just check with Goldderby.com, who are usually experts at this sorta thing, and they had "Frozen" listed as one of the nominees for Original Score, but the problem is it's not eligible. Oops. So, nice try. Frankly, this is a crapshoot anyway; there's 114 possibles, I don't know who listened to all of them, but this can literally be anything. "All is Lost', is the most intriguing one, as it won the Golden Globe in an upset, and that film has the score as much of the foreground, so that's a strong consideration that we have to reconsider. There is no real Music Composers Awards, although they do have a Guild, it's not a film-centered one, and also, the Guild doesn't seem to be giving out awards this year, so it's a crapshoot on this on.

ORIGINAL SCORE (PREDICTIONS)
12 Years a Slave-Hans Zimmer
All is Lost-Alex Ebert
The Book Thief-John Williams
Gravity-Steven Price
Her-William Butler and Owen Pallett

Yeah, I'm going against some of the grains here a bit. "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave", are the guarantees, and just as a rule of thumb it's never a good idea to bet against John Williams, so "The Book Thief" gets in. I'm gonna take a shot and say "All is Lost" sneaks in, although, I'm not confident on that. I think-eh, it's importance to the film, puts it in here, although, I think about "Into the Wild" and Eddie Vedder's famous score, not getting nominated for that film, so I'm reluctant on it. The other ones, I think are possible here are "Captain Phillips", "Philomena", and "Saving Mr. Banks", and I'm taking a gamble nominating Her, 'cause it's not normal for the Academy to nominate people who come from outside the film world like Arcade Fire's William Butler and Owen Pallett for Film Score, but they've surprised us occasionally with this, like Trent Reznor co-winning with Atticus Ross a few years back for "The Social Network", so I'm gonna take a shot on that one.


ORIGINAL SONG (Likely Possibles)
"My Lord Sunshine (Sunrise)"-"12 Years a Slave"
"Doby"-"Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues"
"Last Mile Home"-"August: Osage County"
"Hush Child (Get You Through This Silent Night)"-"Black Nativity"
"Test of Faith"-"Black Nativity"
"Atlas"-"The Hunger Games: Catching Fire"
"Happy"-"Despicable Me 2"
"Rise Up"-"Epic"
"Let It Go"-"Frozen"
"100$ Bill"-"The Great Gatsby"
"A Little Party Never Killed Nobody (All We Got)"-"The Great Gatsby"
"Young and Beautiful"-"The Great Gatsby"
"The Moon Song"-"Her"
"I See Fire"-"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Better You, Better Me,"-"The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete"
"You and I Ain't Nothin' No More"-Lee Daniels' The Butler
"Ordinary Love""Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"
"Monsters University"-"Monsters University"
"When the Darkness Comes"-"The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones"
"The Muslims are Coming!"-"The Muslims are Coming!"
"Sweeter than Fiction"-"One Chance"
"Nothing Can Stop Me Now"-"Planes"
"Stay Alive"-"The Secret Life of Walter Mitty"
"So You Know What It's Like"-"Short Term 12"
"Cut Me Some Slack"-"Sound City"
"Becomes the Color"-"Stoker"
"Here It Comes"-"Trance"

If you're all wondering why "Please Mr. Kennedy" from "Inside Llewyn Davis" isn't here, well, frankly they're not eligible. I know, but a technicality as a part of the song isn't completely original, and the A.M.P.A.S. tends to be picky about this. Anyway, I'm currently going through as many of the 75 eligible songs for the category, yes, one-by-one, and the reason I'm doing that is because no category is more unpredictable from year to year. Last year, they changed the rules after a pitiful two nominations the year before, to make sure there's five every year, a good rule, but still, laziness is abound in the Music Branch when it comes to the Song Category. There's a 2 songs/per movie limit, and a few movies have multiple choices, like "Austenland"'s 4 songs, "The "Black Nativity" has 3, "The Great Gatsby" has 5 eligible ones, so does "Kamasutra 3D", and there's a few more out there too. I think the most amazing part about that statistic is that there's a movie called "Kamasutra 3D", and I never heard of it! Where is this movie? I wanna see it...- Anyway, lot to go through, and who knows really with some of these. It looks like "Frozen"'s "Let It Go", "Atlas" from "The Hunger Games" and "Ordinary Love" from "Mandela..." are the favorite, but I've said that about good songs before in this category.....

ORIGINAL SONG (PREDICTIONS)
"Happy"-Despicable Me 2
"Let It Go"-Frozen
"A Little Party Never Hurt Nobody (All We Got)"-The Great Gatsby
"Ordinary Love"-Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
"So You Know What It's Like"-Short Term 12

I'm gonna go against the norm a couple places here, for one thing, I'm not going with the Lana Del Ray song from "The Great Gatsby" and I do like it, but I actually preferred the Fergie song, and I also think that song is more representative of the spirit of the film than the other song, so I'm going way against the grain on that one, although I would not be shocked, by any means, if there is no "The Great Gatsby" mentioned here. This is an unusually a high amount of eligible songs, and there's a lot big names here, a few aren't gonna get in, and there's some other good quirky ones that I like, like "Stay Alive" from "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty". and even though it's a documentary, Paul McCartney and Stevie Nicks, provided new material for "Sound City", and the McCartney song, he does with Dave Grohl, Krist Novoselic and Pat Smear, so that one will get noticed. I thought about the Coldplay song too from "The Hunger Games", that I could see sneaking in. I wasn't as big on "The Moon Song" as others. "Here It Comes" from the movie "Trance" is another personal favorite, but I'm gonna take a chance here and go with "So You Know What It's Like" from "Short Term 12". I have no logistically reason for picking this, other than I think, other than the fact that those who saw it will remember it; I just saw a youtube clip, of the song being used in the film, (I haven't seen the film yet) and I was affected; I have to reasonable presume that if I was effected, then others probably will be too, especially a committee that watches how a song is shown in a movie; that's how it's determine, they show the movie clips so....


SOUND (Likely possibles)
"12 Years a Slave"
"All is Lost"
"Captain Phillips"
"Elysium"
"Frozen"
"Gravity"
"The Great Gatsby"
"Inside Llewyn Davis"
"Iron Man 3"
"Lone Survivor"
"Pacific Rim"
"Rush"
"Upstream Color"

Well, technically these are two Oscars, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, but they're probably basically the same list of likely films. Anyway, the difference is the the Sound Editors are the people who create and record the sounds, while Sound Mixing, is the way those sounds are then mixing on place on the final track. So-eh,- I use "Raiders of the Lost Ark" for the example, so in "Raiders..." when the record the sounds of the rats to create the sounds of the slithers snakes, that's Sound Editing. The physical process of taking those sound recordings, and matching and placing them into the film, that's Sound Mixing. Anyway, that can lead to some differences, but typically these two categories are usually mostly the same movies, so despite the differences, but-eh, those differences may be critical sometimes. Like a musical often gets Sound Mixing, but not Editing, for instance.

SOUND EDITING (PREDICTIONS)
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Iron Man 3
Rush

SOUND MIXING (PREDICTIONS)
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Iron Man 3

The one I'm most worried about is "Lone Survivor", getting in, that one did get a CAS (Cinema Audio Society, the Sound Mixers Guild) Award nomination, but, I suspect "Rush" is the more likely nomination, and was more liked. Also, "All is Lost", I'm giving nods to, instead of "Inside Llewyn Davis", which is more likely to get a Sound Mixing nod, for the music. The rest are fairly safe bets, although a nomination for "Frozen" wouldn't surprise me either. A lot of time, they forget how critical sound is in animation, and an animated film can often sneak in, and occasionally win this category, but I don't think enough people liked "Frozen" enough to push it into these categories. "12 Years a Slave" can also show up here too, let's not forget them either, but no Guild nomination for them, makes it a little unlikely.


VISUAL EFFECTS (Possibles)
"Elysium"
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Iron Man 3"
"The Lone Ranger"
"Oblivion"
"Star Trek Into Darkness
"Thor: The Dark World"
"...Pacific Rim"
"World War Z"

Well, it's hard to imagine any scenario where "Gravity" doesn't win the Visual Effects Oscar, and it's up for many of the VES (Visual Effects Socitey,, their Guild) Awards too. "Thor...", "Wold War Z" and "Oblivion", didn't get a single VES nomination, so those three, are likely out completely, the only question then becomes, if the awards will go paint with the VES's.

VISUAL EFFECTS (PREDICTIONS)
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Star Trek Into Darkness
Warner Bros. Pictures and Legendary Pictures Pacific Rim

Can someone please explain to me why that's listed as the title for "Pacific Rim" on the Academy's announcement? It's not listed as that in the complete eligible films list, so, maybe it's an error, but they should've corrected that.


LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM 
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
Dva (Two)
Helium
Kush
Pitaako Mun Kakki Hoitaa (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
Record/Play
Throat Song
Tiger Boy
The Voorman Problems

Well, now we're at the Short Films, which I always try to do last. Sometimes I even have time to watch a few of them beforehand, not this year, so, all these predictions, well, they're basically just watching a trailer, reading summaries and playing Eenie Meanie Miney Moo, after a while. Well, not the last one, but we'll see. Short's are more highly regarded overseas than in America for some reason, so there's a lot of foreign films here, but a lot of them look like they're worth looking up.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM (PREDICTIONS)
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)

Helium
Throat Song
Tiger Boy
The Voorman Problems

Uh, absolute guesses, so who knows. Wouldn't be surprised by "Do I Have to Take Care of Everything" getting in though. Or "Dva" either. "Tiger Boy", I've been hearing about for awhile, and "Aquel No Era Yo", looks like a really big project for a short, those are always impressive.


ANIMATED SHORT (Possibles)
"Feral"
"Get a Horse"
"Gloria Victoria"
"Hollow Land"
"The Missing Scarf"
"Mr. Hublot"
"Possessions"
"Requiem for Romance"
"Room on the Broom"
"Subconscious Password"

Well, the big nominee this year is Disney's "Get a Horse", which is done in the style of Disney's really old black and white films, and even feature Walt Disney himself as the voice of Mickey Mouse, through manipulating archival government. After that, eh, "Subconscious Password" looks to be the second choice with the strange and ahead of his time Chris Landreth's animation. (He won an Oscar for the short animated biopic "Ryan" years ago, that people couldn't believe was entirely animated)

ANIMATED SHORT (PREDICTIONS)
Feral
Get a Horse!

Mr. Hublot
Requiem for Romance
Subconscious Password

Disney won last year for "Paperman"; and they're really making an effort to return to the Animated Short category, except another win, but don't be surprised by an upset.


DOCUMENTARY SHORT (Possibles)
"CaveDigger"
"Facing Fear"
"Jujitsu-ing Reality"
"Karama Has No Walls"
"The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life"
"Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall"
"Recollections"
"SLOMO"

Well, with only eight of these, just by pure math, I'm gonna get a couple noms rights. Documentary Shorts, sometimes are a bit like the documentary category, they tend to nominate the subjects as much as the film itself; that's unfortunate sometimes, others it can't be helped, but either way, it's a safe way of predicting this category.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT (PREDICTIONS)
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Jujitsuing Reality
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Not much emotion either way on this one.




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