This is a weird Emmys. It's weird, 'cause in one hand, nobody cares about these Emmys, and I mean, more then usual we don't care. Every time I do posts on some awards show, I got some commenter on Facebook or something talking about how they think they're stupid and don't matter and I shouldn't care about them, or blah, blah, blah, these are the same morons who want to spoil pro wrestling fans fun by telling them it's fake and I don't care about them. Just because you, for whatever dumb reason don't want to meet the award show halfway in their artificiality, don't ruin it for everybody else, you're all dicks!! I ought to tell the next one, that I think the MCU is stupid because those aren't real superheroes with superpowers, they're actors pretending to be able to do stuff like, um, snap a finger and-eh, end/revive existence.
Anyway, that annual diversion rant over, what I mean is, nobody cares this year, because this year has just been, well, like, half a TV season. The shows we would've expected to be here got delayed due to COVID and instead of an interesting batch of the usual suspects, we ended up with, whatever just happened to get made, and fit-in close enough into a traditionally recognized genre of television.
Anyway, that annual diversion rant over, what I mean is, nobody cares this year, because this year has just been, well, like, half a TV season. The shows we would've expected to be here got delayed due to COVID and instead of an interesting batch of the usual suspects, we ended up with, whatever just happened to get made, and fit-in close enough into a traditionally recognized genre of television.
That said, it's also weird 'cause, well, a lot of stuff that probably wouldn't have gotten into these awards during normal televisions seasons, have found a way in this year, and that's not bad either. There's so much television right now that there's a lot of good that everybody misses and this was the one time they could catch up.
Well, most people caught up. Personally, I have not been as on-the-ball on television as a hole this year; Instead of binging every true crime documentary and miniseries that's suddenly available on Netflix, I've spent most of the pandemic surfing Youtube, trying to watch all the movies I'm behind on, and spending the time working on other scripts and side projects and jobs, and that's if I'm not going to a real job and getting sick with COVID myself. (I got sick before the vaccines came out, I've taken them, I'm planning on a booster shot when it's available, I'm not a nutjub that thinks horse dewormer is a cure; didn't think I'd ever have to put that sentence together....) That doesn't mean I haven't watched a few things, but I'm having a lot of catch-up to do, as I'm writing these predictions.
This is it, I've finally becoming the person who's discovering the great shows years into their run, and starts talking about them like their new despite their being like six seasons of them on some streaming service. Except they're mostly just, okay, and not that great, but whatever.... It's a weird year, and I gotta fill out a Gold Derby ballot at some point. Here's my Predictions.
COMEDY
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
black-ish-ABC
Cobra Kai-Netflix
Emily in Paris-Netflix
The Flight Attendant-HBO Max
Hacks-HBO Max
The Kominsky Method-Netflix
Pen15-Hulu
Ted Lasso-AppleTV+
So, as I'll write these, I'll also be watching some of the series that I haven't watched yet, or am behind by. For instance, it seems like "Ted Lasso" is the clear frontrunner for the Comedy Series, so I finally found a way to watch an episode. Honestly, I wasn't expecting much, the premise seemed a too hokey for me, but so far, not too bad. I don't know how it's gonna keep playing out: I do think the premise is a bit ehhh, and it does sound a bit like Season 2, has been underwhelming overall.... But the only other show that seems like it could take it here is "Hacks" HBO's new comedy series about stand-up comedy. I actually have seen some episodes of that, and I like it, but I think I prefer "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" and now I'm just sad that I have to wait for the fourth season of that series, which, for the record, is still the best sitcom on television. I'll finally get to "Cobra Kai" eventually... (Look, I never cared for "The Karate Kid" and this weird Barney Stinson-esque rebrand, reboot,.... eh.) I did actually get around to "Emily in Paris" though, and I don't think it should've been nominated; it's-, okay, but it's "Sex and the City" romanticism is so outdated, and- god, why is there suddenly an outburst of American-Out-Of-Water sitcoms this year? I feel like that's not a great genre normally, but yeah, "Ted Lasso" is the better version of it so far, even after only one episode of it. Personality, if I had a vote, I thought "The Flight Attendant" was the most fun this year. I wouldn't say it blew me away, but for a long-form narrative comedy series that has a mystery plot to it, it pulled off well a lot of the things that in other shows I've generally hated. It even has me excited about the next season, and Kaley Cuoco played a really great character there. I'll be cheering for that, or "PEN15" which I happy to see get in, but yeah, this seems to be a "Ted Lasso" year, and I don't see anything topping it late.
PREDICTION: "Ted Lasso"
PREFERENCE: "The Flight Attendant"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Anthony Anderson-"black-ish"-ABC
Michael Douglas-"The Kominsky Method"-Netflix
William H. Macy-"Shameless"-SHOWTIME
Jason Sudeikis-"Ted Lasso"-AppleTV+
Kenan Thompson-"Kenan"-NBC
Good lord, when is "Shameless" gonna end? Like, look, I'm a fan of the show, but Jesus, this series still going on.... I'm in like season 3 or 4 on DVD and I'm exhausted by it and they're in like season ten now. Ugh! Anyway, I'm checking out Kenan's sitcom, one of two current "SNL" cast members who are nominated in the Lead for their own sitcom this year.... Yeah, "SNL" has-eh, yeah, I'm not gonna get to the homesteading on the show anytime soon, but "Kenan" looks pretty decent actually. And it'd be nice to finally see him win an Emmy; he's been doing so friggin' long by now. Man, when that Pop Arena gets to "All That" on his Show-by-Show History of Nickelodeon profile, the younger people watching who don't know are just be amazed.... Anyway, I can't see him winning. It's a tough category, but "Ted Lasso" feels like the favorite for everything, and we've got three longtime also-ran nominees against, and Kenan, who's show not up for anything else major and who's more likely to win in Supporting Actor. And you know what, "Ted Lasso"'s growing on me.
PREDICTION: Jason Sudeikis-"Ted Lasso"
PREFERENCE: Jason Sudeikis-"Ted Lasso"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Aidy Bryant-"Shrill"-Hulu
Kaley Cuoco-"The Flight Attendant"-HBO Max
Tracee Ellis Ross-"black-ish"-ABC
Allison Janney-"Mom"
Jean Smart-"Hacks"-HBO Max
Well, I've seen all these shows, and although I really should watch more "black-ish", I'm watching an episode "Cobra Kai" at the moment. (Shrugs) I don't know, it looks okay, just sorta,...- I don't know; I feel like we care too much about continuing universes that don't need to be continued to begin with and yeah, this shows feels like it's jumping near the top of my frustration list with that one, although outside of that context the show's fine. Anyway, the only repeats in the category are Tracee Ellis Ross for "black-ish", and oddly Allison Janney for "Mom" getting a surprising nomination for the show's last season, which honestly I thought was the jumping the shark season for the show. Aidy Bryant, is the other "SNL" cast member and nominee up for Lead in a Comedy with her finale series of her cult show "Shrill". I've seen a few episodes, I liked it, I get why it has an audience. Really the only two that genuinely have a shot in the category, barring something particularly weird, are Kaley Cuoco and Jean Smart, and it's probably gonna be Smart. I mean, that's a general rule with the Emmys anyway, and even though she's also nominated in Miniseries for "Mare of Easttown", "Hacks" is the big show, she's got a flashy role, it's a good show.... I'd like to see Cuoco win it, who's been around, for a lot longer then some people might realize actually. I literally know people who've worked with her since she was a child actress, but yeah, Jean Smart collects another Emmy for her trophy case.
PREDICTION: Jean Smart-"Hacks"
PREFERENCE: Kaley Cuoco-"The Flight Attendant"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Carl Clemons-Hopkins-"Hacks"-HBO Max
Brett Goldstein-"Ted Lasso"-AppleTV+
Brendan Hunt-"Ted Lasso"-AppleTV+
Nick Mohammad-"Ted Lasso"-AppleTV+
Paul Reiser-"The Kominsky Method"-Netflix
Jeremy Swift-"Ted Lasso"-AppleTV+
Kenan Thompson-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Bowen Yang-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Well, I guess I should watch more "Ted Lasso" seeing as they overtook half the category. I looked it up, and there's been one other time, in 2019, where four performers from the same show got nominated, and all of them managed to lost. That was "Game of Thrones" in Supporting Actress Drama year where they all went down to Julia Garner for "Ozark", so it's possible. Also, this is annoying. This is why you don't just want a popular vote, the same biggest show will get all the nominees and everybody else in this case gets screwed over. We got one nominations for "Hacks", one nomination for "The Kominsky Method" of all things, although it is really nice to see Paul Reiser nominated again, and the main battle according to most of the pundits, between Kenan Thompson and Bowen Yang. This is kinda interesting if it is between these two, because we haven't had this kind of split vote before either. Rarely are there performers nominated in the same genre for two different series in Lead and Supporting categories like Kenan and Aidy Bryant are this year. It's not like when an actor for a movie gets nominated for Lead and Supporting Oscars, 'cause usually when there is a multi-nominee or even a double winner, it's usually got an arm through the Movie/Miniseries categories instead of just the same genre. Right now, I suspect Bowen Yang is a slight favorite, but I gotta think that they're trying to figure out a way to give Kenan something....
PREDICTION: Kenan Thompson-"Saturday Night Live"
PREDICTION: Kenan Thompson-"Saturday Night Live"
PREFERENCE: Paul Reiser-"The Kominsky Method"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Aidy Bryant-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Hannah Einbinder-"Hacks"-HBO Max
Kate McKinnon-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Rosie Perez-"The Flight Attendant"-HBO Max
Cecily Strong-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Juno Temple-"Ted Lasso"-AppleTV+
Hannah Waddington-"Ted Lasso"-AppleTV+
I think this is a trickier category. Three pretty strong "SNL" nominees here, McKinnon's won in the past, Bryant's unlikely to win for "Shrill" so this would be the most likely spot for her to win. Hannah Waddington seems like an interesting pick for "Ted Lasso", although I think you can argue that she should be a co-lead, although I think a bigger category fraud might be Hannah Einbinder for "Hacks" who's really the co-lead. Frankly, that's why I'm leaning a bit more towards her for this category, although lookout for Rosie Perez to play spoiler. Her having never won anything yet is a damn crime. Oh, also, I watched more "Hacks" writing this, and okay, I get it now.
PREDICTION: Hannah Einbinder-"Hacks"
PREFERENCE: Rosie Perez-"The Flight Attendant"
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
B Positive-"Pilot"-James Burrows-CBS
The Flight Attendant-"In Case of Emergency"-Susanna Fogel-HBO Max
Hacks-"There is No Line (Pilot)"-Lucia Aniello-HBO Max
Mom-"Scooby-Doo Checks And Salisbury Steak"-James Widdoes-CBS
Ted Lasso-"Biscuits"-Zach Braff-AppleTV+
Ted Lasso-"The Hope That Kills You"-MJ Delaney-AppleTV+
Ted Lasso-"Make Rebecca Great Again"-Declan Lowney-AppleTV+
Okay, so this is weird. The rule is that, there has to be at least one nomination in this category for a multi-camera show, but apparently, two got in. The most likely scenario is that there was a tie for the automatic multicam, so, technically there might be a nomination that got enough votes but was left off. Anyway, checking the recent history of the category, it's actually shockingly rare how often the show with the majority of nominees actually wins; it hasn't happened that a show with three nominees has won since 2011 with "Modern Family". Gold Derby is predicting that "Biscuits" episode of "Ted Lasso" being the most likely to get nominated; it's only Zach Braff's second career nomination. I'm not entirely sure about that analysis, it's a good episode, and well-directed, but I think the votes are gonna split the show. That leaves the pilots for "Hacks" and "The Flight Attendant". Both good, but in terms of what's the most directing....
PREDICTION: "The Flight Attendant"-In Case of Emergency-Susanna Fogel
PREFERENCE: "The Flight Attendant"-In Case of Emergency-Susanna Fogel
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
The Flight Attendant-"In Case of Emergency"-Steve Yockey-HBO Max
Girls5eva-""Pilot"-Meredith Scardino-Peacock
Hacks-"There Is No Line (Pilot)"-Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky-HBO Max
Pen15-"Play"-Maya Erskine-Hulu
Ted Lasso-"Make Rebecca Great Again"-Teleplay: Jason Sudeikis; Story by Brendan Hunt and Joe Kelly-AppleTV+
Ted Lasso-"Pilot"-Teleplay & Story by Jason Sudeikis and Marc Lawrence; Story by Brendan Hunt and Joe Kelly-AppleTV+
Well, now I guess I better watch an episode of "Girls5eva". I've been wondering when Peacock was gonna do something that isn't just rebooting bad old NBC shows. What the hell is this show anyway? Whoa, Sara Bareilles can act?! And Busy Phillips! And Renee Elise Goldsberry!? Holy god, NBC, how are you stashing this on Peacock!? I mean, it's not great, but you know, this is interesting. Anyway, eh, what do we have here? We got four pilots, a second episode of "Ted Lasso" and an episode of "PEN15", which I really do gotta get to the second season of soon. I'm gonna presume a Pilot is gonna win this, but which one? I think we can knock out "Girls5eva" but the three-way race between "Ted Lasso", "Hacks" and "The Flight Attendant" is basically gonna climax here. Whoever wins this category is probably winning series, so....
PREDICTION-"Ted Lasso"-Pilot-Teleplay & Story by Jason Sudeikis and Marc Lawrence; Story by Brendan Hunt and Joe Kelly
PREFERENCE-"The Flight Attendant"-"In Case of Emergency"-Steve Yockey
DRAMA SERIES
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
The Boys-Prime Video
Bridgerton-Netflix
The Crown-Netflix
The Handmaid's Tale-Hulu
Lovecraft Country-HBO
The Mandalorian-Disney+
Pose-FX Networks
This is Us-NBC
Well, if I'm behind in Comedy Series, then I'm really behind in Drama series. I guess I'll start with "Bridgerton" while I write these. I'm sure that won't be a bit distracting. (LOL, Prudence Featherington, What a ridiculous name. Oh boy, this'll at least be fun British aristocratic absurdism.) Actually, we do have an interesting category here. Only three series nominated last year, "The Handmaid's Tale", the only one of the nominees to win this category, "The Crown" and "The Mandalorian", while "This is Us", and somewhat surprisingly "Pose" have returned to the category after missing a nomination here in previous years. Newcomers "The Boys" a superhero series, along with the aforementioned "Bridgerton" and for the first time in a while a series that only lasted one season before getting canceled "Lovecraft Country", that's the first time that's happened in this category since they they stopped including limited series. Frankly, this is a very unfortunate group of lesser-tier nominees, but all sign are pointing to "The Crown" finally pulling this off, which I find disappointing, 'cause I found this season of "The Crown" frustrating. (In fact, I thought the last two seasons have been annoying.) I mean it was technically good and well-done, but I couldn't put up with getting pissed off at Margaret Thatcher or the constant sighing for all the Diana moments. To me, they're giving to them late, but whatever, it's by far not the worst choice they can make even out of this group of nominees.
PREDICTION: "The Crown"
PREFERENCE: "This is Us"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Sterling K. Brown-"This is Us"-NBC
Jonathan Majors-"Lovecraft Country"-HBO
Josh O'Connor-"The Crown"-Netflix
Rene-Jean Page-"Bridgerton"-Netflix
Billy Porter-"Pose"-FX Networks
Matthew Rhys-"Perry Mason"-HBO
Okay, so now, I'm starting "Lovecraft Country" with this one. I guess I could watch "Perry Mason" but I'll watch that one later. I'll probably enjoy it too since I love "Perry Mason", but I really do need to get to "Lovecraft Country" because-um, well..., okay, I might as well confess this now because apparently it's something I should've known before hand, but-um, well, I don't know how much H.P. Lovecraft's work is referenced or involved or required knowledge for "Lovecraft Country", just based on the opening sequence it feels like it'll help, but-eh, here's the thing, I actually, don't know anything about his work.... Yeah, I understand he's important and influential, especially in science-fiction, but he's a real big blind spot for me. It's somebody asked me to define "Lovecraftian" right now, I wouldn't be able to do it. I'm sure somebody will explain it to me now, or give me titles to read. I don't know what to tell, I was much more into Ray Bradbury and Daphne Du Maurier and Shirley Jackson growing up I totally whiffed on Lovecraft. Anyway, so far, the show looks really good. Anyway, as to this category, Gold Derby has Josh O'Connor as the slight favorite..., over Billy Porter. (Shrugs) "Pose"'s finale series was apparently well-acclaimed and Porter's won in the past, so it could happen.... Matthew Rhys is also a previous winner, but "Perry Mason" split a lot of critics and fans; I can't imagine it winning a top acting award here. They might go back to Sterling K. Brown as well, which might be my vote. "This is Us" I thought was great this year, up until the very end of the season...- which we probably should talk about more 'cause boy I would consider a RETCON of that if possible.... They better do a good job convincing me that's the right direction to go next season.... I kinda have half-a-thought that Jonathan Majors could steal this, but Rene-Jean Page was the big breakout star from "Bridgerton" and he's apparently not coming back to the show, so they'd have to honor him here. "Lovecraft Country" is canceled too here, so they'd have to honor Majors here too if they had the chance. That said, there is a small controversy of category fraud with "Lovecraft...", cause while they did dangle and consider a second season of the show, apparently this was originally considered a limited series at some point in the pre-production and/or greenlighting of the show. I can't imagine that really hurting the series, but canceled shows after one year, don't tend to do that well in the acting or series categories. There's been a few nominees over the year, but I think you gotta go back to "My World... and Welcome To It" to find really Emmy success. (Shrugs) I might just pick an upset to be different here.
PREDICTION: Rene-Jean Page-"Bridgerton"
PREFERENCE-Jonathan Majors-"Lovecraft Country"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Uzo Aduba-"In Treatment"-HBO
Olivia Colman-"The Crown"-Netflix
Emma Corrin-"The Crown"-Netflix
Elisabeth Moss-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Mj Rodriguez-"Pose"-FX Networks
Jurnee Smollett-"Lovecraft Country"-HBO
I guess, technically, I didn't have to watch an episode of "In Treatment" since it's not technically a new show that I haven't seen, but is instead a continuation from the original run of the series and I watched that. That said, it's a continuation of the original run of "In Treatment" and you better damn well believe I'm watching that, 'cause "In Treatment" is HBO's most underrated television series. I know it was always experimental, but it's such a good show, brilliant idea for a show; I never did understand why it never really caught on as well as it did. This is one, "reboot" that should've happened a long time ago; arguably it should've always been around. It's one of the few shows that could've changed actors all the time and not lose anything, you'd think.... Oh well, is it good enough for Uzo Aduba to win this category? (Shrugs) Probably not, although the show can surprise and Uzo wins a lot. Gold Derby has Emma Corrin winning, at the moment, which... eh.... Hmmm. Well, hard enough beating your own castmate, much less when that castmate is Olivia Colman. They've also got MJ Rodriguez, the first trans actress nominated in this category, in the second choice spot; I can see that happening with "Pose"'s finale season and it getting back into Series. Part of me wonders if we're underestimating "The Handmaid's Tale" especially Elisabeth Moss; she's a former beloved winner, and while technically the show didn't win any acting awards last year, there's an asterisk to that, because it won acting awards the previous year when it wasn't eligible for Best Series due to an eligibility issue regarding release dates and they got ten acting nominations. Gotta figure they're gonna win, one of them, right...?
PREDICTION: Mj Rodriguez-"Pose"
PREFERENCE: Elisabeth Moss-"The Handmaid's Tale"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Giancarlo Esposito-"The Mandalorian"-Disney+
O-T Fagbenie-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
John Lithgow-"Perry Mason"-HBO
Tobias Menzies-"The Crown"-Netflix
Max Minghella-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Chris Sullivan-"This is Us"-NBC
Bradley Whitford-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Michael K. Williams-"Lovecraft Country"-HBO
This time around, I got to the new "Perry Mason" reboot. It's...- it's interesting. I'm not entirely sure what to make of that so far to be honest; I might just be too big of a fan of "Perry Mason" to really judge it as it's own piece. Lithgow's good in it but I don't know if he's gonna win it this year. Obviously, the category is currently more somber now after the sudden passing of Michael K. Williams. He's never won an Emmy, so this is their last chance, but the Emmys have rarely been sentimental, but still, Williams was well-loved and beloved, and a lot of people think he was overdue after his work on "The Wire" and "Boardwalk Empire". Still, Tobias Menzies had been the favorite until then but "The Crown" is kinda underperforming so far.... "The Handmaid's Tale" has three nominees, including Bradley Whitford, who's won for the show before in Guest and has won this category before for "The West Wing". There's a few returning nominees in this category too with Chris Sullivan and Giancarlo Esposito. I don't know where to go with this category actually; I'm just gonna take a shot and go with the default.
PREDICTION: Tobias Menzies-"The Crown"
PREFERENCE: Michael K. Williams-"Lovecraft Country"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Gillian Anderson-"The Crown"-Netflix
Madeline Brewer-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Helena Bonham Carter-"The Crown"-Netflix
Ann Dowd-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Aunjanue Ellis-"Lovecraft Country"-HBO
Emerald Fennell-"The Crown"-Netflix
Yvonne Strahovski-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Samira Wiley-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Well, I've seen all these shows, so I guess while I'm analyzing this category, I'll try watching that "The Boys". I'm not looking forward to this one, 'cause I-, well, I'm sick of superhero shit to begin with, but also, I can't stand Eric Kripke's first show "Supernatural". Actually, it's not that I can't stand the show, the show's mostly just a stupid teenage version of "The X-Files" only with brothers instead of Mulder and Skully, and it focused a little too much on "The X-Files"'s worst storytelling tendencies.., but it of itself, it was just relatively harmless bad tv, but the fact that it lasted so frickin' long and has so many fans has sorta baffles me. Yeah, I know it's got fans, and they can go fucking die; they kept a bad show on for four years longer then "M*A*S*H", they can go screw themselves; I'm happy they all hated their finale; they can all bite me. (This is why fans are the worst; fifteen years of a shitty show means a potential good show that didn't get mad, fans are awful!) Anyway, speaking of "The X-Files" Gillian Anderson is the favorite for playing Margaret Thatcher on "The Crown". She was incredibly good as Margaret Thatcher, in that I basically wanted to choke her every time she was onscreen. (Yeah, I really hated this season of "The Crown".) That said, I wouldn't mind if she won. Anyway, not an eclectic mix here, other then Aunjanue Ellis it's "The Crown" vs. "The Handmaid's Tale", three nominations, mostly who we expected, past winners and nominees, and a newly-Oscar Winning writer, that's odd. Ann Dowd's listed on Gold Derby as the second choice, personally I'm debating between Yvonne Strahovski and Helena Bonham Carter for my personal preference for this year. Helena in particular was essentially the lead in my favorite episode of "The Crown" from this year. Eh, Ann Dowd's won before so I don't know if they're in a hurry to give it to her again, and they haven't honored Gillian Anderson in a while.... Also, they shouldn't be ignoring Chrissy Metz and Mandy Moore in this category, bad Emmys.
PREDICTION: Gillian Anderson-"The Crown"
PREFERENCE: Helena Bonham-Carter-"The Crown"
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Bridgerton-"Diamond of the First Water"-Julie Ann Robinson-Netflix
The Crown-"Fairytale"-Benjamin Caron-Netflix
The Crown-"War"-Jessica Hobbs-Netflix
The Handmaid's Tale-"The Wilderness"-Liz Garbus-Hulu
The Mandalorian-"Chapter 9: The Marshal"-Jon Favreau-Disney+
Pose-"Series Finale"-Steven Canals-FX Networks
This is a category that could be weird. Right now, Gold Derby has "The Crown"'s "Fairytale" but eh... I don't know. I'm reluctant on "The Crown" and I just kinda wonder if there really is that many royalty lovers in the Academy, especially modern royalty lovers, 'cause the show, for me, really is starting to get into shit that I grew up with knowing, and especially since most of this was Diana stuff, I'm really reluctant to relive some of this shit. This might just be me though. Also, eh, the directing category has seen a surprise or two lately, like Jason Bateman winning out of nowhere for "Ozark" recently. I wonder if they're underestimating Jon Favreau. Also, "Pose" is in for the finale, and I kinda wonder if that could be where they honor the show. The pilot for "Bridgerton" is here as well, if they like that show, but I think that will stumble and underperform because I suspect them and "The Crown" are basically similar audiences, and "The Crown" is winning that. Oh, I'm watching "The Handmaid's Tale" at the moment, I gotta catch up at least a little on that one at this point, and it's up for the finale here, but if there's one I think we're underestimating, they do sometimes give this award to the biggest named director, and "The Mandalorian" is a really directing-centric series.... I might go out on a limb on this one.
PREDICTION: "The Mandalorian"-"Chapter 9: The Marshal"-Jon Favreau
PREFERENCE: "The Handmaid's Tale"-"The Wilderness"-Liz Garbus
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
The Boys-"What I Know"-Rebecca Sonnenshine-Prime Video
The Crown-"War"-Peter Morgan-Netflix
The Handmaid's Tale-"Home"-Yahlin Chang-Hulu
Lovecraft Country-"Sundown"-Misha Green-HBO
The Mandalorian-"Chapter 13: The Jedi"-Dave Filoni-Disney+
The Mandalorian-"Chapter 16: The Rescue"-Jon Favreau-Disney+
Pose-"Series Finale-Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, Steven Canals, Janet Mock and Our Lady J-FX Networks
Wait "The Boys" is on Season two right now?! I just realized that! Ugh! It's gonna be like "The Handmaid's Tale" except their escaping from superheroes isn't it? Eh, I'll watch more "Lovecraft Country" first, at least that getting canceled means it's shorter. Honestly, I'm not sure which of these is the favorite. This is actually a weird category this year, six different shows nominated, that's a lot for this category, the only double-nominee is "The Mandalorian" and the other five nominees are nominees for series, with only "Bridgerton" and for reasons I will never get "This Is Up" being left out. That's not as unusual, although it is weird, but it can be forgiven because of the television environment this year and also because the way the Emmys have been voting in the last few years, has lead to a lot less diversity in nominees among the main categories. (Note: I still don't like the current voting system #BringBackEmmyPanels #BringbackTapes) Anyway, I think this category will probably just go to the show that's the most likely to win Series, so....-
PREDICTION: "The Crown"-"War"-Peter Morgan
PREFERENCE: "The Handmaid's Tale"-"Home"-Yahlin Chang
VARIETY
OUTSTANDING VARIETY TALK SERIES
Conan-TBS
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah-Comedy Central
Jimmy Kimmel Live!-ABC
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver-HBO
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert-CBS
There's not too much to talk about with the Variety Series categories this year, so I'll be putting on a movie while writing these; I'll watch more shows later. Uh, I guess a potential spoiler here could be "The Daily Show..."; I think they're second anyway, and Trevor Noah in particular thrived under COVID, but yeah, that said, everyone here thrived in these conditions and it looks like "Last Week Tonight..." should be able to easily take this again.
PREDICTION: "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver"
PREFERENCE: "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver"
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
A Black Lady Sketch Show-HBO
Saturday Night Live-NBC
I did kinda fear something like this would happen when they separated out the Variety and Sketch genres. Not because I thought there wasn't a big enough difference; I actually thought it was a good idea and while there's a lot of similarities, comedy talk shows and sketch comedy shows are pretty different from each other, enough where I think separating out the two is justified, but I kinda had this irksome feeling that the trend of sketch comedy series taking over was, basically just a temporarily fad that wouldn't survive much longer. And, yeah, I think I was kind of right. "Inside Amy Schumer"'s gone, "Key & Peele", "Drunk History" is gone, "Portlandia" is gone, and all those were before COVID. I said back then that "SNL" was gonna be the survivor and was always gonna be the top in the genre and well, yeah, like, it happened again. I mean, I had already watched 30+ years of contenders try to take them down and none of them ever did. I mean, many of them were great, important shows that took real shots at them, but "SNL" had positioned and established itself as the single great hall of sketch comedy and had done so for decades, and it was destroying it's temporary competition way back since "Fridays", why would these groups of upstarts that are basically centered around one or two people's visions ever completely overtake them? It's not like I don't think "A Black Lady Sketch" show can't win, and frankly I love that show, I hope they could pull this but they're not pulling this off and even if they did, it's only for one year, and "SNL" is "SNL"; it ain't going away anytime soon. Let's hope I'm wrong about the fad and this is just a temporary setback for Sketch due mainly to COVID and the next generation of indys come later, with "A Black Lady Sketch" show leading the way, next year....
PREDICTION: "Saturday Night Live"
PREFERENCE: "Saturday Night Live"
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED)
8:46 - Dave Chappelle-Netflix
Bo Burnham: Inside-Netflix
David Byrne's American Utopia-HBO
Friends: The Reunion-HBO Max
Hamilton-Disney+
A West Wing Special To Benefit When We All Vote-HBO Max
In a bit of a surprise, this category got placed in the Main Show this year for the first time in a while as opposed to the Creative Arts Emmys. (Oh btw, while I'm not posting them here, I did make predictions for the Creative Arts and filled out a Gold Derby ballot for them. You can see my predictions and how I did on our Facebook page, here.) That said, I can see why; there's a lot of big television shows and names in this category. "The West Wing" voting special is here, so is the "Friends" reunion. Dave Chappelle's great "8:46" special, Spike Lee's documentary on David Byrne, as well as Bo Burnham's comedy special which has already won a lot of Creative Arts awards, including Writing and Directing for the performer. And then there's, "Hamilton".... Jesus, this is a loaded category.
PREDICTION: "Hamilton"
PREFERENCE: "Hamilton"
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)
The 83rd Annual Grammy Awards-CBS
Celebrating America-An Inauguration Night Special-Multiple Platforms
The Oscars-ABC
The Pepsi Super Bowl LV Halftime Show Starring The Weeknd-CBS
Stephen Colbert's Election Night 2020: Democracy's Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020-Showtime
Another award that has typical been subjugated to the Creative Arts in Previous Years brought back to the main show now. And, if you checked my Creative Arts Predictions on our FB page, which you can also find on my own personal FB page btw, here, you'll notice that I've change my prediction on this category. I was going with Stephen Colbert's special, and I still think that could win, although it's in last place on Gold Derby, so I'm in the minority but after getting an extra week to think about it unexpectedly, I think I was underestimating "Celebrating America..." I don't know if everybody watched Colbert, or the Grammys and if they saw The Oscars they're likely gonna mostly remember the clusterfuck of an ending, but they probably saw the Inauguration. Maybe the Super Bowl Halftime Show, but I thought that was a forgettable and underwhelming show overall.... (Shrugs) just thinking about how they're going to go about this, I think "Celebrating America..." probably has this.
PREDICTION: "Celebrating America-An Inauguration Night Special"
PREFERENCE: "Celebrating America-An Inauguration Night Special"
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
The Amber Ruffin Show-Head Writer: Jenny Hagel; Writing Supervisor: Demi Adejuyigbe; Writers: Ashley Nicole Black, Amber Ruffin, et. al.-Peacock
A Black Lady Sketch Show-Head Writer: Lauren Ashley Smith; Writers: Robin Thede, Ashley Nicole Black, et. al.-HBO
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver-Writers: Johnathan Appel, Ali Barthwell, Tim Carvell, Liz Haynes, John Oliver, et. al.-HBO
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert-Head Writers: Ariel Dumas, Jay Katsir; Writers: Stephen T. Colbert, Delonte Bent, et. al.-NBC
Saturday Night Live-Head Writers: Michael Che, Anna Drezen, Colin Jost and Kent Sublette, Writing Supervisors: Fran Gillespie, Sudi Green, Streeter Seidell; "Weekend Update" Head Writer: Pete Schultz: "Weekend Update" Writers: Megan Callahan-Shah, Dennis McNicholas, Josh Patten, Mark Steinbach, Dave Sirus and Mike Lawrence; Writers: Dan Bulla, Steven Castillo, Allison Gates, Lorne Michaels, et. al. -NBC
Okay, when the hell did "SNL" get so many "Head Writers"? Like, there's a 80 people nominated in this Variety Writing category, which always makes for a fun montage at the Emmys, but when I write them down here, I try to write out the main ones that get separated on the official nominations document, and then just a few of the other writers, so like the Head Writers, mainly, but "SNL" Jesus, they have Head Writers, Writing Supervisors, special writers for "Weekend Update",... like Christ! Anyway, not sure why Amber Ruffin got the Seth Meyers nomination in the category, but fine, at least some woman got recognized in Variety Talk this year.... Anyway, eh, yeah, John Oliver's taking this again. Nice to see "A Black Lady Sketch Show" get in though.
PREDICTION: "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver"
PREFERENCE: "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver"
REALITY
OUTSTANDING COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race-CBS
Nailed It!-Netflix
RuPaul's Drag Race-VH1
Top Chef-Bravo
The Voice-NBC
"The Amazing Race" returns to this category from a year-long absence as a result of COVID. I'm surprised it was only one year personally. Come to think of it, the only four shows that have ever won this category, "The Amazing Race," "RuPaul's Drag Race", the most recent winner, "Top Chef" and "The Voice" are all here this time around. Along with, for some reason "Nailed It!" returning. I'm sorry guys, I don't understand the appeal of "Nailed It!", at all. And like, not in the same way that I don't understand the appeal of "RuPaul's Drag Race", which, I know that I don't get because there's a cultural thing that I'm missing, (Who knew lipsyncing was like, a culturally essential thing for drag queens to be able to do? [Shrugs] I-eh, I don't get it, but it sure looks fun at least.) but "Nailed It!" is just, watching amateurs be shitty bakers? What's the appeal of this? Why can't I just appreciate good baking and desert creations, you've got Jacques Torres and Sylvia Weinstock right fucking there?! Ugh! Just bring back "Top Chef Just Desserts" please if you guys actually like this. It's like, "Dancing with the Stars" being nominated every year all over again, despite "So You Think You Can Dance?" being a billion times better.
PREDICTION: "RuPaul's Drag Race"
PREFERENCE: "Top Chef"
LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES/TV MOVIES
OUTSTANDING LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES
I May Destroy You-HBO
Mare of Easttown-HBO
The Queen's Gambit-Netflix
The Underground Railroad-Prime Video
WandaVision-Disney+
I was going to watch the miniseries as well for these categories, not yet anyway, but I felt like I had to watch at least one "WandaVision" because, after seeing the clips and the classic television homages and parodies, I felt like I had, 'cause so much of this is up my alley. So far, holy hell this is cringy. I hope this goes somewhere. Like, I am impressed with it, that's fair to say...., I don't know where this will ultimately go, or why, or what the fuck this has to do with anything else in the Marvel anything.... You know, that really does hurt things like this, the fact that this bizarre and interesting concept, I do have to think about in terms of this supposed greater narrative of the Marvel Universe, 'cause I don't give a fuck about that! Like seriously, why does everything have to be connected, can't all things be separate, or how about just, not apart of this superhero universe; why can't Marvel just makes movies and TV shows and not have them instantaneously be connected. One of the great things about most television crossovers over the years was that most of the time, the crossovers only happened when you could make a connection between the shoes, like how NBC had all those New York sitcoms on Thursday Nights or their Saturday night Miami sitcoms and usually they had producers and creators in common, like how the whole "Happy Days" universe was Garry Marshall's idea. It worked well, in those senses, but it also benefitted from only working well for a very limited time. I never consciously considered how whatever Laverne & Shirley were doing were ever effecting Richie Cunningham's struggles with dating, 'cause they fucking didn't and both shows were better for it. Now like, I can't even like something in this universe like "Black Panther", the best of the movies, because I gotta be concerned about how "Infinity War" is gonna completely fuck everything up I liked about the film in it. Like, I know it's their brand, but really fuck their brand. If they're owned by Disney now anyway, Disney has Touchstone and like nine other companies for shit they don't want their name on, just do that and do these weird things that don't matter to this goddamn universe!!!!
(Sigh)
Anyway where was I? Oh yeah, uhh, "The Queen's Gambit" is the favorite, they took almost everything at the Creative Arts, I saw it, I loved it, it's probably gonna win here, maybe "Mare of Easttown" can play spoiler, but "The Queen's Gambit" got the easy path here.
PREDICTION: "The Queen's Gambit"
PREFERENCE: "The Queen's Gambit"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Paul Bettany-"WandaVision"-Disney+
Hugh Grant-"The Undoing"-HBO
Ewan McGregor-"Halston"-Netflix
Lin-Manuel Miranda-"Hamilton"-Disney+
Leslie Odom, Jr.-"Hamilton"-Disney+
So, the way it seems like everyone's thinking, or the way Gold Derby is promoting it a bit, is that they think "Hamilton" shouldn't count here because, it was a taped performance of a show from like, five years ago. I'd argue that's bs. This was intended to be a theatrical release, it's still a filmed performance, it's still acting, and I think they're underestimating it. Huge, especially in this category where Paul Bettany's the only nominee from a Best Limited Series nominee and the presumptive favorite. I think look out for "Hamilton" frankly and we're gonna see a repeat of the Tonys here.
PREDICTION: Leslie Odom, Jr.-"Hamilton"
PREFERENCE: Leslie Odom, Jr.-"Hamilton"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Michaela Coel-"I May Destroy You"-HBO
Cynthia Erivo-"Genius: Aretha"-National Geographic
Elizabeth Olsen-"WandaVision"-Disney+
Anya Taylor-Joy-"The Queen's Gambit"-Netflix
Kate Winslet-"Mare of Easttown"-HBO
I'm a little concerned everybody's underestimating Michaela Coel here. "I May Destroy You" is kinda under the radar compared to the other programs, but it did overperform so far and I think she can play spoiler here. Kate Winslet's listed as the favorite and I suspect "Mare of Easttown" could win something, but I think "The Queen's Gambit" gonna win at least one acting award and this is the one that makes the most sense. This is her star-making role, everybody else can win some other time, hell Winslet's won this award before....
PREDICTION: Anya Taylor-Joy-"The Queen's Gambit"
PREFERENCE: Anya Taylor-Joy-"The Queen's Gambit"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Thomas Brodie-Sangster-"The Queen's Gambit"-Netflix
Daveed Diggs-"Hamilton"-Disney+
Paapa Essiedu-"I May Destroy You"-HBO
Jonathan Groff-"Hamilton"-Disney+
Evan Peters-"Mare of Easttown"-HBO
Anthony Ramos-"Hamilton"-Disney+
I'm riding the "Hamilton" train here. I think the actors from the three limited series have a shot here, but I think three "Hamilton" nominees is too many to overcome and Daveed Diggs in particular is too much to overcome. Another Tonys repeat.
PREDICTION: Daveed Diggs-"Hamilton"
PREFERENCE: Daveed Diggs-"Hamilton"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Renee Elise Goldsberry-"Hamilton"-Disney+
Kathryn Hahn-"WandaVision"-Disney+
Moses Ingram-"The Queen's Gambit"-Netflix
Julianne Nicholson-"Mare of Easttown"-HBO
Jean Smart-"Mare of Easttown"-HBO
Phillipa Soo-"Hamilton"-Disney+
Okay, so there's some category fraud here. Phillipa Soo was actually nominated for the Lead Actress Tony, while Renee Elise Goldsberry won for Feature Actress, which is their equivalent to Supporting Actress, so putting them both in Supporting here is questionable. That's probably the only reason I'm kinda going against "Hamilton" here a bit. Kathryn Hahn is currently the favorite for "WandaVision" she could win here. Her character's villain reveal song just won Best Song, so they care about the character. Still though, I feel skeptical about predicting her. My next instinct is to think that this is where "Mare of Easttown" will work here, but which one? Jean Smart's the obvious pick, but they're more likely to give it her for Comedy Series this year, so they could go somewhere else. Not that that's ever stopped them before; Stockard Channing famously won for both Supporting Actress awards for Drama Series and Movie/Miniseries for "The West Wing" and "The Matthew Shepherd Story" in the same year once, they could give it to her again. However Julianne Nicholson is the second choice, and I'd like to see her win. She's been a great character actress for awhile and surprisingly this is her first Emmy nomination. I'm back and forth on this one more then any other category so far; basically it's a matter of, do I think they want to give "Mare of Easttown" something or not...
PREDICTION: Julianne Nicholson-"Mare of Easttown"
PREFERENCE: Renee Elise Goldsberry-"Hamilton"
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Hamilton-Thomas Kail-Disney+
I May Destroy You-"Ego Death"-Sam Miller & Michaela Coel-HBO
I May Destroy You-"Eyes Eyes Eyes Eyes"-Sam Miller-HBO
Mare of Easttown-Craig Zobel-HBO
The Queen's Gambit-Scott Frank-Netflix
The Underground Railroad-Barry Jenkins-Prime Video
WandaVision-Matt Shakman-Disney+
Oh boy, a really tough category here. Like, four people here who directed entire miniseries and the one miniseries that got two nominations for directing, share a nominee. I don't think "I May Destroy You" have much of a shot of winning this category, but trying to figure out the winner is tough here. Barry Jenkins is the biggest name, but unfortunately "The Underground Railroad" has so little else in the major categories that I don't see it winning here. "The Queen's Gambit" is the current Gold Derby leader, which makes sense. Scott Frank is normally known as a writer though, so it would be interesting if he won Directing here. Craig Zobel is a big named film director, so this would make sense for him to win here; the category has gone to some big directors who do entire miniseries over the recent years. That said, I could also see Matt Shakman making the argument that he had to recreate and combine, and he's the one who's the big TV director in the group and he had to combine classic television directing with Marvel filmmaking style. Maybe they could give it to "Hamilton" but I doubt it in this case; it's one of the miniseries for sure. I don't know, in a year where everybody did both good directing and the most directing, I'm gonna go with the biggest film name
PREDICTION: "Mare of Easttown"-Craig Zobel
PREFERENCE: "WandaVision"-Mat Shakman
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
I May Destroy You-Michaela Coel-HBO
Mare of Easttown-Brad Ingelsby-HBO
The Queen's Gambit-Scott Frank-Netflix
WandaVision-"All-New Halloween Spooktacular"-Chuck Hayward & Peter Cameron-Disney+
WandaVision-"Filmed Before A Live Studio Audience"-Jac Schaeffer-Disney+
WandaVision-"Previously On"-Laura Donney-Disney+
Gold Derby has "I May Destroy You" in a distressingly big lead at the moment, which surprises me. I think they think that that's the best chance for Michaela Cole to win.... (Shrugs) I don't know, I can kinda see this.... There is occasionally a completely out-of-nowhere surprise in this category, like "The Hour" winning that one time. My instinct is actually to still think "The Queen's Gambit" can take this, especially with Scott Frank, being one of the better writers in Hollywood over the years, but then again, looking at the recent history of this category, maybe we're underestimating "WandaVision". It's unusual for a single episode to win for Directing, but not writing. Trying to figure out which episode is a tougher job. I have a feeling "WandaVision" would've won had they been allowed to submit as a full miniseries, the split just doesn't add up. I also don't think the Academy is gonna be able to separate between the Top 3. All things being equal, Writer's Branch will pick the Writer, so I'm taking the biggest writing name.
PREDICTION: "The Queen's Gambit"-Scott Frank
PREFERENCE: "The Queen's Gambit"-Scott Frank
Alright, that's my ballot and my predictions for the main show. I'm not gonna do an immediate post-mortem on the Emmys this year. I'm sorry about that, but I'll put some thoughts together on my next Movie Reviews post on show.
Anyway, hope these predictions help, or if not, hope you can laugh at them after the show. Let's try to enjoy the Emmys everyone.
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