Well, the Oscar nominations have snuck on me this year. I'm still struggling to finish off two years ago, and now were honoring last. I really don't like where this directions going. And that's nothing to say about the Oscars this year, who for some reason can't find a host and are under some delusion belief that they can go one without one. (Sigh)
Since I haven't said anything on this yet, let me get this out of the way. Whether you like Kevin Hart or not, he shouldn't be hosting. Why the Academy hasn't just named a new host is the bigger mistake. I don't know what the fuck they're thinking. Instead they kept waiting for some apology that he wouldn't mean and they never got and in the meantime, the Oscars are coming, and nobody seems to be panicking. The last time the Academy Awards went on without a host, was the Allen Carr disaster that ended up in them getting sued by Disney for copyright infringement, which was like the 8th worst part of that thing. Call Billy Crystal, call Jon Stewart, call Whoopi, just call, call, call, get somebody. I don't care who anymore. I remember when Eddie Murphy backed out a few years after Brett Ratner was fired from producing the show, they had a Producer and wrangled what was left of Billy Crystal together to get the show done. They're releasing nine shortlists a day, some before they sent out the longlists, they tried to include a Popular Film Category, they might not air all the Oscars-, I mean, it's not that I agree or disagree with any of this, but the directionless of this is really apparent. Say what you want about Cheryl Boone-Isaacs, and I said plenty 'cause she wasn't good, but at least when it came down to the keeping to a schedule or theme, she was on point. John Bailey seems to not be engaged or is so disengaged and meandering that he's making me think back on her fondly.
Anyway, 24 categories, several awards I have to get through, a buttload of movies I mostly haven't seen, still be as in-depth of every category as ever, even though I really should and this format is time-consuming and painfull, but here we go.
2018 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
"22 July"
"American Animals"
"Annihilation"
"At Eternity's Gate"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Beast"
"Beautiful Boy"
"Ben is Back"
"Bird Box"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Blindspotting"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Book Club"
"Border"
"Boy Erased"
"Burning"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me"
"Capernaum"
"Cold War"
"Collette"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"Deadpool 2"
"The Death of Stalin"
"Destroyer"
"Disobedience"
"Eighth Grade"
"Everybody Knows"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"First Reformed"
"The Front Runner"
"Game Night"
"Green Book"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Hereditary"
"The House That Jack Built"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Incredibles 2"
"Isle of Dogs"
"The Kindergarten Teacher"
"Leave No Trace"
"Love, Simon"
"Madeline's Madeline"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Mid90s
"The Miseducation of Cameron Post"
"Mission: Impossible--Fallout"
"Monsters and Men"
"The Mule"
"The Old Man & the Gun"
"On the Basis of Sex"
"Outlaw King"
"Paddington 2"
"Private Life"
"A Private War"
"Puzzle"
"A Quiet Place"
"Quincy"
"Ready Player One"
"The Rider"
"Roma"
"Shoplifters"
"The Sisters Brothers"
"Sorry to Bother You"
"A Star is Born"
"Stan & Ollie"
"Support the Girls"
"Suspiria"
"Tully"
"Unsane"
"Vice"
"Vox Lux"
"We the Animals"
"Welcome to Marwen"
"What They Had"
"White Boy Rick"
"Widows"
"The Wife"
"Wildlife"
"Won't You Be My Neighbor?"
"A Wrinkle in Time"
"You Were Never Really Here"
As always I cast out the widest net I can when it comes to Best Picture, 'cause I don't want to make that mistake of a film getting in that wasn't even on my perspective longlist. (Goddamn, "The Blind Side" and "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close") This is actually somewhat of an interesting Best Picture year. The front runner has switched a few times in recent months, with Cuaron's "Roma", a foreign language, black & white movie seeming like the current favorite. "Green Book" and "Bohemian Rhapsody" won the Globes, both of which have had a major backlash campaign against them, which suggest their longshots to win, but can they get in? The Academy year began strangely after an earlier threat of a Popular Film Oscar aka, the "Black Panther" award was threatened, before calmer, saner heads prevailed. The other heavy favorite seems to be, "A Star is Born" of all things, although history doesn't seem promising for that film. This fourth incarnation could will probably break into a lot of categories, but other than Song for the Streisand one, it hasn't really won much. Besides that, there's the 5-10 mystery number of nominees issue. Expected nominees include "A Star is Born", "Roma", "BlackkKlansman", "The Favourite", "Vice", "Black Panther", "If Beale Street Could Talk", and "Green Book", that's eight. After that, I'm wondering what else could sneek in to a nine or ten field. Gold Derby's leaning towards, "First Man", "Bohemian Rhapsody", "Mary Poppins Returns", and "A Quiet Place" as the possible next slots. I'm not sure about a sequel musical.
BEST PICTURE (Predictions)
Black Panther
BlackkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
*Can You Ever Forgive Me
*Bohemian Rhapsody
I think I'm gonna go safe with the eight that most experts going with, but I think "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" might be the sleeper surprise nominee though. It's gotten into the categories it needs to fairly consistently and if there's any questions about no female director getting into picture, putting that in would help. After that, I'm going with "Bohemian Rhapsody". (Shrugs) I think it could be also either "Mary Poppins Returns", "First Man", "A Quiet Place" on the outside, maybe "Crazy Rich Asians", and if I were to take a couple things way on the outside, "First Reformed", "Leave No Trace", "The Rider" or "The Hate U Give", I think might be able to sneak in late if there's a groundswell of support.
BEST DIRECTOR (Possibles, longlist)
Zain Al-Rafeea-"Capernaum"
Ari Aster-"Hereditary"
Ari Aster-"Hereditary"
Susanne Bier-"Bird Box"
Brad Bird-"Incredibles 2"
Bo Burnham-"Eighth Grade"
Damian Chazelle-"First Man"
Elizabeth Chomko-"What They Had"
John M. Chu-"Crazy Rich Asians"
Joel & Ethan Coen-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
Sara Colangelo-"The Kindergarten Teacher"
Ryan Coogler-"Black Panther"
Bradley Cooper-"A Star is Born"
Alfonso Cuaron-"Roma"
Clint Eastwood-"The Mule"
Joel Edgerton-"Boy Erased"
Peter Farrelly-"Green Book"
Alex Garland-"Annihilation"
Debra Granik-"Leave No Trace"
Luca Guadagnino-"Suspiria"
Matthew Heinemann-"A Private War"
Marielle Heller-"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Barry Jenkins-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Tamara Jenkins-"Private Life"
Hirokazu Koreeda-"Shoplifters"
John Krasinski-"A Quiet Place"
Karyn Kusama-"Destroyer"
Nadine Labaki-"Capernaum"
Bart Layton-"American Animals"
Chang-Dong Lee-"Burning"
Yorgos Lanthimos-"The Favourite"
Spike Lee-"BlackkKlansman"
Rob Marshall-"Mary Poppins Returns"
Adam McKay-"Vice"
Steve McQueen-"Widows"
Rich Moore & Phil Johnston-"Ralph Breaks the Internet"
Crystal Moselle-"Skate Kitchen"
Morgan Neville-"Won't You Be My Neighbor?"
Nick Park-"Early Man"
Pawel Pawlikowski-"Cold War"
Michael Pearce-"Beast"
Bob Persichetti, Rodney Rothars and Peter Ramsey-"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
Sally Potter-"The Party"
Lynne Ramsay-"You Were Never Really Here"
Boots Riley-"Sorry to Bother You"
Ramell Ross-"Hale County This Morning, This Evening"
Josie Rourke-"Mary Queen of Scots"
Julian Schnabel-"At Eternity's Gate"
Paul Schrader-"First Reformed"
Gennedy Tartakovsky-"Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation"
Warwick Thornton-"Sweet Country"
Felix van Groeningen-"Beautiful Boy"
Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi-"Free Solo"
Tim Wardle-"Three Identical Strangers"
Betsy West & Julie Cohen-"RBG"
Chloe Zhao-"The Rider"
DGA went with Cooper, Cuaron, Farrelly, Lee and Mckay. Generally, I don't like to be too clever in this category, especially considered the Guild's accuracy when it comes to predicting the inevitable Oscar winner is one of the strongest of all the Guilds. Even when it most seems like an upset is plausible it usually holds pat. However, there's usually at least one nominee that sneaks in without a DGA nom. Most likely I suspect that Peter Farrelly is the most vulnerable, especially considering the easy comparison to "Green Book" is "Driving Miss Daisy", which infamously won Best Picture without a Directing nomination. I think it's between Jenkins and Lanthimos for the last spot.
BEST DIRECTOR (Predictions)
Bradley Cooper-"A Star is Born"
Alfonso Cuaron-"Roma"
Yorgos Lanthimos-"The Favourite"
Spike Lee-"BlackkKlansman"
Adam Mckay-"Vice"
I can't imagine a scenario where "The Favourite" which has overperformed damn-near everywhere doesn't sneak into Directing. I'm gonna play it safe here. Plus, the Academy seems to like him, having nominated two of Lanthimos's more stranger films like "Dogtooth" and "The Lobster" in previous years.
BEST ACTRESS (Possibles, longlist)
Sakura Ando-"Shoplifters"
Yalitza Aparacio-"Roma"
Emily Blunt-"Mary Poppins Returns"
Jessie Buckley-"Beast"
Sandra Bullock-"Bird Box"
Rose Byrne-"Juliet, Naked"
Rose Byrne-"Juliet, Naked"
Glenn Close-"The Wife"
Toni Collette-"Hereditary"
Olivia Colman-"The Favourite"
Penelope Cruz-"Everybody Knows"
Viola Davis-"Widows"
Elsie Fisher-"Eighth Grade"
Lady Gaga-"A Star is Born"
Maggie Gyllenhaal-"The Kindergarten Teacher"
Regina Hall-"Support the Girls"
Kathryn Hahn-"Private Life"
Helena Howard-"Madeline's Madeline"
Dakota Johnson-"Suspiria"
Felicity Jones-"On the Basis of Sex"
Nicole Kidman-"Destroyer"
Keira Knightley-"Colette"
Joanna Kulig-"Cold War"
Kiki Layne-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Kelly MacDonald-"Puzzle"
Rachel McAdams-"Game Night"
Melissa McCarthy-"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Thomasin McKenzie-"Leave No Trace"
Eve Melander-"Border"
Chloe Grace Moretz-"The Miseducation of Cameron Post"
Carey Mulligan-"Wildlife"
Michelle Pfieffer-"Where is Kyra?"
Rosamund Pike-"A Private War"
Natalie Portman-"Annihilation"
Natalie Portman-"Vox Lux"
Julia Roberts-"Ben is Back"
Saiorse Ronan-"Mary Queen of Scots"
Amandla Stenberg-"The Hate U Give"
Hilary Swank-"What They Had"
Charlize Theron-"Tully"
Rachel Weisz-"Disobedience"
Mary Elizabeth Winstead-"All About Nina"
Constance Wu-"Crazy Rich Asians"
I went and dug up this old tweet I made a couple years ago when I was live-tweeting the Oscars a few years ago:
"MULTIPLE OSCAR-NOMINATED ACTRESS GLENN CLOSE! Subtext translation: "WE CAN'T BELIEVE SHE'S NEVER FUCKING WON EITHER, GLENN CLOSE"!
Yeah, I know nobody's seen "The Wife" but she's way overdue, and this is real. Although I can't help but think of the last time a first-time singer-turned-actress competed for the Oscar against the whily longtime veteran, was Streisand and Hepburn tying in '69. It doesn't hurt that Gaga's probably winning for Song too. Now, the rest of the category, Olivia Colman's a bit of an interesting case, 'cause I think it's subjective whether all three of the female leads in the film are either Leads or Supporting, but Colman's overdue to at least be nominated and their pushing her for Lead, and I'm not falling for that, "The Academy will surprise and move her to Supporting/Lead"-thing again. I know they did it with Kate Winslet for "The Reader" and a couple other times, but it's been awhile and campaigning is a lot different now. The other two that SAG put in were Melissa McCarthy and Emily Blunt. My gut instinct say that Yalitza Aparacio's work in "Roma" gotta find a way in, but a lack of even a Casting nomination from SAG is a bit troubling. I think it was eligible, although oddly, SAG's only listing for the film on their website, comes with a picture of the poster for "Stan & Ollie".
There's a couple other names I can see sneaking in, Elsie Fisher, Toni Collette's got a groundswell of support, Thomasin McKenzie might be more likely in supporting, but I wouldn't be shocked by Amandla Stenberg or Sakura Ando sneaking in late. The one name that I'm looking for as an out-of-nowhere shock nomination is Sandra Bullock for "Bird Box". I mean, let's face, that's been the biggest and most talked about movie for the last six weeks or so.
BEST ACTRESS (Predictions)
Yalitza Aparacio-"Roma"
Glenn Close-"The Wife"
Olivia Colman-"The Favourite"
Lady Gaga-"A Star is Born"
Melissa McCarthy-"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
I'd really hate to do this to Emily Blunt again, she has a long history of getting nominations in major precursor award only to miss getting an Oscar nomination, including by SAG, but I think Melissa McCarthy is somewhat safely in. She's shown up way more often in supplemental and critics awards and if "Roma" is as ahead as everyone else thinks, it's gotta show up in acting somewhere and she's the name that makes the most sense. The last time a film won Best Picture without an Acting nomination was what, "Slumdog Millionaire"? After that, "Lord of the Rings..." and after that, you gotta go all the way back to "The Last Emperor".
BEST ACTOR (Possibles, longlist)
Christian Bale-"Vice"
Javier Bardem-"Everybody Knows"
Javier Bardem-"The Sisters Brothers"
Jason Bateman-"Game Night"
Chadwick Boseman-"Black Panther"
Steve Carell-"Beautiful Boy"
Jakob Cedergren-"The Guilty"
John Cho-"Searching"
Steve Coogan-"Stan & Ollie"
Bradley Cooper-"A Star is Born"
Jim Cummings-"Thunder Road"
Jim Cummings-"Thunder Road"
Willem Dafoe-"At Eternity's Gate"
Daveed Diggs-"Blindspotting"
Clint Eastwood-"The Mule"
Rupert Everett-"The Happy Prince"
Ben Foster-"Leave No Trace"
Ryan Gosling-"First Man"
Sverrir Gudnason-"Borg vs McEnroe"
Ethan Hawke-"First Reformed"
Lucas Hedges-"Ben is Back"
Lucas Hedges-"Boy Erased"
Hugh Jackman-"The Front Runner"
Stephan James-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Brady Jandreau-"The Rider"
Tomasz Kot-"Cold War"
Anders Danielsen Lie-"22 July"
Rami Malek-"Bohemian Rhapsody"
Matthew McConaughey-"White Boy Rick"
Lin-Manuel Miranda-"Mary Poppins Returns"
Shamiek Moore-"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
Shamiek Moore-"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
Viggo Mortensen-"Green Book"
Ed Oxenbould-"Wildlife"
Joaquin Phoenix-"You Were Never Really Here"
Chris Pine-"Outlaw King"
Robert Redford-"The Old Man & The Gun"
John C. Reilly-"The Sisters Brothers"
John C. Reilly-"Stan & Ollie"
Ryan Reynolds-"Deadpool 2"
Nick Robinson-"Love, Simon"
Lakeith Stanfield-"Sorry to Bother You"
Sunny Suljik-"Mid90s"
John David Washington-"BlackkKlansman"
Ben Whishaw-"Paddington 2"
Ben Whishaw-"Paddington 2"
I think there's about seven, maybe eight names if you think Joaquin Phoenix is in the race that really have a shot. Other than that, I think it's a bit random. It seems like every name has had a run as the favorite during this race. At the moment, with Globe & Critics Choice win, Christian Bale seems like the default favorite. Viggo Mortensen seemed like a surefire lock awhile back, but after the "Green Book" backlash, I'm not even sure he's getting nominated. And speaking of, "Is he getting nominated", Rami Malek and "Bohemian Rhapsody" seemed to have ostracized nearly everyone. Poor Elsie Fisher got shit on Twitter for applauding the film's surprise wins at the Globes. "Bohemian Rhapsody" over-performed at SAGs by sneaking into Ensemble, although most everybody figures that the only real shot it's got at winning a major award is here. My gut instinct is to go paint with the SAG which also added John David Washington, but I can't imagine "First Reformed" getting shutout. Also, Willem Dafoe's work in Schnabel's "At Eternity's Gate" might be a sleeper, although no acting performance has even gotten nominated from a Schnabel film before. (Sigh)
BEST ACTOR (Predictions)
Christian Bale-"Vice"
Bradley Cooper-"A Star is Born"
Ethan Hawke-"First Reformed"
Rami Malek-"Bohemian Rhapsody"
John David Washington-"BlackkKlansman"
I think "Green Book" will under-perform, and the big one, other than Farrelly missing Director, will be Mortensen falling short. If you really want to go out on a limb, maybe take a gamble on Ben Foster getting in for "Leave No Trace", or Stephan James for "If Beale Street Could Talk". If it's not Mortensen that falls out, then it's probably Washington, who along with his father Denzel, could become the first father and son to receive Oscar nominations after being directed by the same Director! I think? Maybe? Somebody look that one up for me.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Possibles, longlist)
Amy Adams-"Vice"
Nina Arianda-"Stan & Ollie"
Awkwafina-"Crazy Rich Asians"
Emily Blunt-"A Quiet Place"
J. Smith Cameron-"Nancy"
Linda Cardellini-"Green Book"
Kayli Carter-"Private Life"
Olivia Colman-"The Favourite"
Blythe Danner-"What They Had"
Marina de Tavira-"Roma"
Elizabeth Debicki-"Widows"
Tyne Daly-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
Cynthia Erivo-"Widows"
Vera Farmiga-"The Front Runner"
Claire Foy-"First Man"
Danai Gurira-"Black Panther"
Regina Hall-"The Hate U Give"
Laura Harrier-"BlackkKlansman"
Zoe Kazan-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
Nicole Kidman-"Boy Erased"
Regina King-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Jennifer Jason Leigh-"Annihilation"
Jennifer Jason Leigh-"White Boy Rick"
Lesliee Mann-"Welcome to Marwen"
Tatiana Maslany-"Destroyer"
Rachel McAdams-"Disobedience"
Thomasin McKenzie-"Leave No Trace"
Sonyoa Mizuno-"Annihilation"
Lupita Nyong'o-"Black Panther"
Teyonah Parris-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Sarah Paulson-"Bird Box"
Alison Pill-"Vice"
Natalie Portman-"Vox Lux"
Margot Robbie-"Mary Queen of Scots"
Gina Rodriguez-"Annihilation"
Michelle Rodriguez-"Widows"
Molly Shannon-"Private Life"
Milly Shapiro-"Hereditary"
Alia Shawkat-"Blaze"
Millicent Simmonds-"A Quiet Place"
Sissy Spacek-"The Old Man & The Gun"
Emma Stone-"The Favourite"
Meryl Streep-"Mary Poppins Returns"
Tilda Swinton-"Suspiria"
Tessa Thompson-"Creed II"
Maura Tierney-"Beautiful Boy"
Phoebe Waller-Bridge-"Solo: A Star Wars Story"
Emily Watson-"The Happy Prince"
Jacki Weaver-"Widows"
Rachel Weisz-"The Favourite"
Merritt Wever-"Welcome to Marwen"
Letitia Wright-"Black Panther"
Michelle Yeoh-"Crazy Rich Asians"
This is the category that I most suspect will be most susceptible to straying from the projected favorites. For one, lost in some of the "Roma" snubs from SAG, was the complete shutout of "If Beale Street Could Talk", despite Regina King winning nearly every award she's up for. I think the projected snub from SAG is Margot Robbie for "Mary Queen of Scots", which is suffering "Elizabeth" syndrome where it's gone under the radar in favor of another Royal period piece. However, I once said that they weren't gonna nominate Amy Adams again unless they're completely certain she'll win, and I said, and then predicted her to get nominated for "Arrival" anyway, knowing she had no shot and wasn't gonna win, and dammit, she didn't get in. I love Amy Adams, but I'm not falling for it again. Among the other names out there, Claire Foy for "First Man" makes the most sense; it doesn't hurt also that she just won an Emmy, and I can't help but to think about Kathleen Quinlan's "Apollo 13" nomination for a similar role. After that, I think it's a bit of a tossup.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Predictions)
Emily Blunt-"A Quiet Place"
Claire Foy-"First Man"
Regina King-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Emma Stone-"The Favourite"
Rachel Weisz-"The Favourite
I did add a caveat to that Amy Adams declaration. I said that she wouldn't get nominated again unless they were certain she was going to, or there absolutely was no other true legitimate choice. I'm not gonna lie, I'm looking at the other options; I'm not certain that she might not get in based on that rule, and part of me thinks that she might actually still win if she could steal SAG. Gold Derby has Nicole Kidman as the sixth choice, I'm thinking Thomasin McKenzie is being overlooked a bit here; I also wouldn't be totally shocked if Zoe Kazan, Letitia Wright, Laura, Harrier Michelle Yeoh or 'cause you know they'd go there, Meryl Streep's name shows up on nomination day. I'm a coin flip on Amy Adams gets in, 'cause it does feel a bit like a weaker year and a great performance of hers would sneak in, but-, I gotta stick with my declaration and I'm not betting against Regina King again. I've been screwed by the Emmys by that enough now.
Amy Adams-"Vice"
Nina Arianda-"Stan & Ollie"
Awkwafina-"Crazy Rich Asians"
Emily Blunt-"A Quiet Place"
J. Smith Cameron-"Nancy"
Linda Cardellini-"Green Book"
Kayli Carter-"Private Life"
Olivia Colman-"The Favourite"
Blythe Danner-"What They Had"
Marina de Tavira-"Roma"
Elizabeth Debicki-"Widows"
Tyne Daly-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
Cynthia Erivo-"Widows"
Vera Farmiga-"The Front Runner"
Claire Foy-"First Man"
Danai Gurira-"Black Panther"
Regina Hall-"The Hate U Give"
Laura Harrier-"BlackkKlansman"
Zoe Kazan-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
Nicole Kidman-"Boy Erased"
Regina King-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Jennifer Jason Leigh-"Annihilation"
Jennifer Jason Leigh-"White Boy Rick"
Lesliee Mann-"Welcome to Marwen"
Tatiana Maslany-"Destroyer"
Rachel McAdams-"Disobedience"
Thomasin McKenzie-"Leave No Trace"
Sonyoa Mizuno-"Annihilation"
Lupita Nyong'o-"Black Panther"
Teyonah Parris-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Sarah Paulson-"Bird Box"
Alison Pill-"Vice"
Natalie Portman-"Vox Lux"
Margot Robbie-"Mary Queen of Scots"
Gina Rodriguez-"Annihilation"
Michelle Rodriguez-"Widows"
Molly Shannon-"Private Life"
Milly Shapiro-"Hereditary"
Alia Shawkat-"Blaze"
Millicent Simmonds-"A Quiet Place"
Sissy Spacek-"The Old Man & The Gun"
Emma Stone-"The Favourite"
Meryl Streep-"Mary Poppins Returns"
Tilda Swinton-"Suspiria"
Tessa Thompson-"Creed II"
Maura Tierney-"Beautiful Boy"
Phoebe Waller-Bridge-"Solo: A Star Wars Story"
Emily Watson-"The Happy Prince"
Jacki Weaver-"Widows"
Rachel Weisz-"The Favourite"
Merritt Wever-"Welcome to Marwen"
Letitia Wright-"Black Panther"
Michelle Yeoh-"Crazy Rich Asians"
This is the category that I most suspect will be most susceptible to straying from the projected favorites. For one, lost in some of the "Roma" snubs from SAG, was the complete shutout of "If Beale Street Could Talk", despite Regina King winning nearly every award she's up for. I think the projected snub from SAG is Margot Robbie for "Mary Queen of Scots", which is suffering "Elizabeth" syndrome where it's gone under the radar in favor of another Royal period piece. However, I once said that they weren't gonna nominate Amy Adams again unless they're completely certain she'll win, and I said, and then predicted her to get nominated for "Arrival" anyway, knowing she had no shot and wasn't gonna win, and dammit, she didn't get in. I love Amy Adams, but I'm not falling for it again. Among the other names out there, Claire Foy for "First Man" makes the most sense; it doesn't hurt also that she just won an Emmy, and I can't help but to think about Kathleen Quinlan's "Apollo 13" nomination for a similar role. After that, I think it's a bit of a tossup.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Predictions)
Emily Blunt-"A Quiet Place"
Claire Foy-"First Man"
Regina King-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Emma Stone-"The Favourite"
Rachel Weisz-"The Favourite
I did add a caveat to that Amy Adams declaration. I said that she wouldn't get nominated again unless they were certain she was going to, or there absolutely was no other true legitimate choice. I'm not gonna lie, I'm looking at the other options; I'm not certain that she might not get in based on that rule, and part of me thinks that she might actually still win if she could steal SAG. Gold Derby has Nicole Kidman as the sixth choice, I'm thinking Thomasin McKenzie is being overlooked a bit here; I also wouldn't be totally shocked if Zoe Kazan, Letitia Wright, Laura, Harrier Michelle Yeoh or 'cause you know they'd go there, Meryl Streep's name shows up on nomination day. I'm a coin flip on Amy Adams gets in, 'cause it does feel a bit like a weaker year and a great performance of hers would sneak in, but-, I gotta stick with my declaration and I'm not betting against Regina King again. I've been screwed by the Emmys by that enough now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (Possibles, longlist)
Mahershala Ali-"Green Book"
Ike Barinholtz-"Blockers"
Josh Brolin-"Avengers: Infinity War"
Steve Buscemi-"The Death of Stalin"
Raul Castillo-"We the Animals"
Timothee Chalamet-"Beautiful Boy"
Kyle Chandler-"First Man"
Jason Clarke-"First Man"
Bradley Cooper-"The Mule"
Russell Crowe-"Boy Erased"
Bruce Dern-"White Boy Rick"
Jamie Dornan-"A Private War"
Adam Driver-"BlackkKlansman"
Robert Duvall-"Widows"
Joel Edgerton-"Boy Erased"
Sam Elliott-"A Star is Born"
Colin Farrell-"Widows"
Robert Forster-"What They Had"
Rupert Friend-"At Eternity's Gate"
Paul Giamatti-"Private Life"
Topher Grace-"BlackkKlansman"
Hugh Grant-"Paddington 2"
Richard E. Grant-"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Jonas Strang Gravli-"22 July"
Jake Gyllenhaal-"The Sisters Brothers"
Jake Gyllenhaal-"Wildlife"
Josh Hamilton-"Eighth Grade"
Armie Hammer-"On the Basis of Sex"
Brian Tyree Henry-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Brian Tyree Henry-"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
Brian Tyree Henry-"Widows"
Russell Honsby-"The Hate U Give"
Nicholas Hoult-"Boy Erased
Oscar Isaac-"Annihilation"
Oscar Isaac-"At Eternity's Gate"
Michael B. Jordan-"Black Panther"
Daniel Kaluuya-"Widows"
Barry Keoghan-"American Animals"
Jude Law-"Vox Lux"
John Malkovich-"Bird Box"
Liam Neeson-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
Liam Neeson-"Widows"
Tim Blake Nelson-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
Alessandro Nivola-"Disobedience"
Evan Peters-"American Animals"
Jason Plemons-"Game Night"
Jonathan Pryce-"The Wife"
Trevante Rhodes-"Bird Box"
Sam Rockwell-"Vice"
Michael Shannon-"What They Had"
J.K. Simmons-"The Front Runner"
Sebastian Stan-"Destroyer"
Corey Stoll-"First Man"
David Tennant-"Mary Queen of Scots"
Tom Waits-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
John Davis Washington-"Monsters and Men"
Sam Waterston-"On the Basis of Sex"
Dominic West-"Colette"
Alex Wolff-"Hereditary"
Steven Yeun-"Burning"
I think Gold Derby has added too many extra names in this category year, although I do think there's a couple interesting longshots that can sneak, the main seven or eight names or so seems to keep popping up. There's a bit of a disagreement over whether Sam Rockwell or Steve Carell is the better choice from "Vice", assuming one of them gets in? (Shrugs) My gut instinct is to just go paint with SAG, that seems about right though. The one name I am concerned about doing that is Timothee Chalament; I'm just not sure "Beautiful Boy" broke through like some of the other films. "Black Panther" snuck into Ensemble at SAG, and if the Academy really pays attentions and remembers their past choices; I would think Micheal B. Jordan would have a slight edge. I'm not 100% certain though, and I can easily see the Academy leaning towards putting Rockwell in for "Vice". Outside of that, maybe Steven Yeun for "Burning" or "Steve Buscemi" for "The Death of Stalin", Tim Blake Nelson I can also see coming out of nowhere too.
Mahershala Ali-"Green Book"
Ike Barinholtz-"Blockers"
Josh Brolin-"Avengers: Infinity War"
Steve Buscemi-"The Death of Stalin"
Raul Castillo-"We the Animals"
Timothee Chalamet-"Beautiful Boy"
Kyle Chandler-"First Man"
Jason Clarke-"First Man"
Bradley Cooper-"The Mule"
Russell Crowe-"Boy Erased"
Bruce Dern-"White Boy Rick"
Jamie Dornan-"A Private War"
Adam Driver-"BlackkKlansman"
Robert Duvall-"Widows"
Joel Edgerton-"Boy Erased"
Sam Elliott-"A Star is Born"
Colin Farrell-"Widows"
Robert Forster-"What They Had"
Rupert Friend-"At Eternity's Gate"
Paul Giamatti-"Private Life"
Topher Grace-"BlackkKlansman"
Hugh Grant-"Paddington 2"
Richard E. Grant-"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Jonas Strang Gravli-"22 July"
Jake Gyllenhaal-"The Sisters Brothers"
Jake Gyllenhaal-"Wildlife"
Josh Hamilton-"Eighth Grade"
Armie Hammer-"On the Basis of Sex"
Brian Tyree Henry-"If Beale Street Could Talk"
Brian Tyree Henry-"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
Brian Tyree Henry-"Widows"
Russell Honsby-"The Hate U Give"
Nicholas Hoult-"Boy Erased
Oscar Isaac-"Annihilation"
Oscar Isaac-"At Eternity's Gate"
Michael B. Jordan-"Black Panther"
Daniel Kaluuya-"Widows"
Barry Keoghan-"American Animals"
Jude Law-"Vox Lux"
John Malkovich-"Bird Box"
Liam Neeson-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
Liam Neeson-"Widows"
Tim Blake Nelson-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
Alessandro Nivola-"Disobedience"
Evan Peters-"American Animals"
Jason Plemons-"Game Night"
Jonathan Pryce-"The Wife"
Trevante Rhodes-"Bird Box"
Sam Rockwell-"Vice"
Michael Shannon-"What They Had"
J.K. Simmons-"The Front Runner"
Sebastian Stan-"Destroyer"
Corey Stoll-"First Man"
David Tennant-"Mary Queen of Scots"
Tom Waits-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
John Davis Washington-"Monsters and Men"
Sam Waterston-"On the Basis of Sex"
Dominic West-"Colette"
Alex Wolff-"Hereditary"
Steven Yeun-"Burning"
I think Gold Derby has added too many extra names in this category year, although I do think there's a couple interesting longshots that can sneak, the main seven or eight names or so seems to keep popping up. There's a bit of a disagreement over whether Sam Rockwell or Steve Carell is the better choice from "Vice", assuming one of them gets in? (Shrugs) My gut instinct is to just go paint with SAG, that seems about right though. The one name I am concerned about doing that is Timothee Chalament; I'm just not sure "Beautiful Boy" broke through like some of the other films. "Black Panther" snuck into Ensemble at SAG, and if the Academy really pays attentions and remembers their past choices; I would think Micheal B. Jordan would have a slight edge. I'm not 100% certain though, and I can easily see the Academy leaning towards putting Rockwell in for "Vice". Outside of that, maybe Steven Yeun for "Burning" or "Steve Buscemi" for "The Death of Stalin", Tim Blake Nelson I can also see coming out of nowhere too.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (Predictions)
Mahershala Ali-"Green Book"
Adam Driver-"BlackkKlansman"
Sam Elliott-"A Star is Born"
Richard E. Grant-"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Michael B. Jordan-"Black Panther"
I'm gonna take a shot and say Michael B. Jordan's overdue and I suspect "Black Panther" will claw it's way into something above the line other than Picture or Screenplay, and this makes the most sense. Chalamet's still young, he'll be back, and they honored Rockwell last year, so I'm going with Jordan.
Mahershala Ali-"Green Book"
Adam Driver-"BlackkKlansman"
Sam Elliott-"A Star is Born"
Richard E. Grant-"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Michael B. Jordan-"Black Panther"
I'm gonna take a shot and say Michael B. Jordan's overdue and I suspect "Black Panther" will claw it's way into something above the line other than Picture or Screenplay, and this makes the most sense. Chalamet's still young, he'll be back, and they honored Rockwell last year, so I'm going with Jordan.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY(Possibles, Longlist)
"22 July"
"Annihilation"
"Beautiful Boy"
"Bird Box"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Border"
"Boy Erased"
"Burning"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"The Death of Stalin"
"Disobedience"
"First Man"
"The Front Runner"
"The Hate U Give"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Incredibles 2"
"Leave No Trace"
"Love, Simon"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"McQueen"
"The Miseducation of Cameron Post"
"The Old Man & The Gun"
"Paddington 2"
"A Private War"
"Puzzle"
"The Sisters Brothers"
"A Star is Born"
"Suspiria"
"The Wife"
"Widows"
"Wildlife"
"You Were Never Really Here"
It's always a little bit of an when considering trusting the WGA as Oscar predictors, since there's usually a good handful or so of contenders that weren't eligible. Started with the Adapted category, That said, usually Adapted Screenplay is a little bit more freer. That said, there's a couple major films in the adapted category like "Leave No Trace" and "The Sister Brothers" we have to take a look at. That said, first we gotta figure out what's out. I suspect most will look towards "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" or "Black Panther" as being on the outside looking in, although I wonder if "A Star is Born" is more vulnerable here than it first seems. I mean, this is the fourth film version of this now, it shouldn't be too difficult for it to have gotten itself written, right? Last year, "Logan" broke through and set the superhero film standard and Barry Jenkins for "If Beale Street Could Talk" has won this category before and recently. Gold Derby also list "The Death of Stalin" and "First Man" as reasonable longshot; I think I'd through in "Crazy Rich Asians" as well.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (Predictions
Black Panther-Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole
BlackkKlansman-Charllie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?-Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk-Barry Jenkins
A Star is Born-Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters
That said, I'm thinking paint for Adapted with the WGA on this one.
"Annihilation"
"Beautiful Boy"
"Bird Box"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Border"
"Boy Erased"
"Burning"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"The Death of Stalin"
"Disobedience"
"First Man"
"The Front Runner"
"The Hate U Give"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Incredibles 2"
"Leave No Trace"
"Love, Simon"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"McQueen"
"The Miseducation of Cameron Post"
"The Old Man & The Gun"
"Paddington 2"
"A Private War"
"Puzzle"
"The Sisters Brothers"
"A Star is Born"
"Suspiria"
"The Wife"
"Widows"
"Wildlife"
"You Were Never Really Here"
It's always a little bit of an when considering trusting the WGA as Oscar predictors, since there's usually a good handful or so of contenders that weren't eligible. Started with the Adapted category, That said, usually Adapted Screenplay is a little bit more freer. That said, there's a couple major films in the adapted category like "Leave No Trace" and "The Sister Brothers" we have to take a look at. That said, first we gotta figure out what's out. I suspect most will look towards "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" or "Black Panther" as being on the outside looking in, although I wonder if "A Star is Born" is more vulnerable here than it first seems. I mean, this is the fourth film version of this now, it shouldn't be too difficult for it to have gotten itself written, right? Last year, "Logan" broke through and set the superhero film standard and Barry Jenkins for "If Beale Street Could Talk" has won this category before and recently. Gold Derby also list "The Death of Stalin" and "First Man" as reasonable longshot; I think I'd through in "Crazy Rich Asians" as well.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (Predictions
Black Panther-Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole
BlackkKlansman-Charllie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?-Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk-Barry Jenkins
A Star is Born-Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters
That said, I'm thinking paint for Adapted with the WGA on this one.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (Possibles, longlist)
"All is True"
"American Animals"
"At Eternity's Gate"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Bathtubs Over Broadway"
"Beast"
"Ben is Back"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Capernaum"
"Cold War"
"Colette"
"Destroyer"
"Eighth Grade"
"Everybody Knows"
"The Favourite"
"First Reformed"
"Generation Wealth"
"Green Book"
"The Guilty"
"The Happy Prince"
"Hereditary"
"In Search of Greatness"
"Isle of Dogs"
"Mid90s"
"The Mule"
"On the Basis of Sex"
"Outlaw King"
"Nancy"
"Private Life"
"A Quiet Place"
"The Rider"
"Roma"
"Shoplifters"
"Sorry to Bother You"
"Stan and Ollie"
"Support the Girls"
"Thoroughbreds"
"Tully"
"Vice"
"Vox Lux"
"Welcome to Marwen"
"What They Had"
"White Boy Rick"
Origninal screenplay seems far messier. A big one that WGA missed was "The Favourite". There's also that distinct possibility that "Green Book" could get snubbed for some of the latest coverage of one of their writers.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (Predictions)
The Favourite-Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed-Paul Schrader
Green Book-Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
Roma-Alfonso Cuaron
Vice-Adam McKay
I eliminated both "Eighth Grade" and "A Quiet Place" from the WGA picks and replaced them with "The Favourite" and "First Reformed" two films that genuinely could win this category most years. It's been awhile since a teen coming-of-age film has won, or even gotten in; you gotta go back to at least "Juno" for that and "A Quiet Place", well, horror has a recent precedent in the category, but I suspect that was a weird anomaly.
ANIMATED FEATURE (Shortlist)
"Ana y Bruno"
"Dr. Seuss' The Grinch"
"Early Man"
"Fireworks"
"Have a Nice Day"
"Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation"
"Incredibles 2"
"Isle of Dogs"
"The Laws of the Universe -- Part 1"
"Liz and the Blue Bird"
"Lu Over the Wall"
"MFKZ"
"Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms"
"Mirai"
"The Night is Short, Walk on Girl"
"On Happiness Road"
"Ralph Breaks the Internet"
"Ruben Brandt, Collector"
"Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero"
"Sherlock Gnomes"
"Smallfoot"
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
"Tall Tales"
"Teen Titans Go! To the Movies"
"Tito and the Birds"
Shows you how behind I am this year that I really have to look up most of the animated features. There's 25 films eligible, including a record eight Japanese films and also films from five other countries on four different continents. It's always eclectic at this point however as usual, the list usually gets narrowed to Disney and Pixar mostly. Although there's wild card in the mix this year. Wes Anderson has gone back to animation with "Isle of Dogs", that could break through. The Chinese film "Have a Nice Day" has developed quite a cult following. Among the Japanese titles, "MFKZ" and "Lu Over the Wall", seem promising, although the main one to keep an eye on seems to be "Mirai" from Mamoru Hosoda, the guy behind the cult favorite, "The Girl Who Lept Through Time". I think a more interesting sleeper might be "Ruben Brandt, Collector", which overperformed at the Annie Awards, getting three nominations, a lot for an independent animated feature, especially a Hungarian one. "Tito and the Birds" is also a sleeper pick here. That said, eh, there's seems to be a few consensus favorites among the precursors.
First Reformed-Paul Schrader
Green Book-Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
Roma-Alfonso Cuaron
Vice-Adam McKay
I eliminated both "Eighth Grade" and "A Quiet Place" from the WGA picks and replaced them with "The Favourite" and "First Reformed" two films that genuinely could win this category most years. It's been awhile since a teen coming-of-age film has won, or even gotten in; you gotta go back to at least "Juno" for that and "A Quiet Place", well, horror has a recent precedent in the category, but I suspect that was a weird anomaly.
ANIMATED FEATURE (Shortlist)
"Ana y Bruno"
"Dr. Seuss' The Grinch"
"Early Man"
"Fireworks"
"Have a Nice Day"
"Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation"
"Incredibles 2"
"Isle of Dogs"
"The Laws of the Universe -- Part 1"
"Liz and the Blue Bird"
"Lu Over the Wall"
"MFKZ"
"Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms"
"Mirai"
"The Night is Short, Walk on Girl"
"On Happiness Road"
"Ralph Breaks the Internet"
"Ruben Brandt, Collector"
"Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero"
"Sherlock Gnomes"
"Smallfoot"
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
"Tall Tales"
"Teen Titans Go! To the Movies"
"Tito and the Birds"
Shows you how behind I am this year that I really have to look up most of the animated features. There's 25 films eligible, including a record eight Japanese films and also films from five other countries on four different continents. It's always eclectic at this point however as usual, the list usually gets narrowed to Disney and Pixar mostly. Although there's wild card in the mix this year. Wes Anderson has gone back to animation with "Isle of Dogs", that could break through. The Chinese film "Have a Nice Day" has developed quite a cult following. Among the Japanese titles, "MFKZ" and "Lu Over the Wall", seem promising, although the main one to keep an eye on seems to be "Mirai" from Mamoru Hosoda, the guy behind the cult favorite, "The Girl Who Lept Through Time". I think a more interesting sleeper might be "Ruben Brandt, Collector", which overperformed at the Annie Awards, getting three nominations, a lot for an independent animated feature, especially a Hungarian one. "Tito and the Birds" is also a sleeper pick here. That said, eh, there's seems to be a few consensus favorites among the precursors.
ANIMATED FEATURE (Predictions)
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I'm playing it a little bit safe here, although I wouldn't be shocked if one of the big sequels gets snubbed for either "Ruben Brandt, Collector" or "Have a Nice Day". I just can't quite see the scenario this year however; this was too big a year for anything more than one outside film getting in, so I'm gonna take the one that's most reminiscent of those beloved Studio Ghibli films that the Animated branch absolutely adores.
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I'm playing it a little bit safe here, although I wouldn't be shocked if one of the big sequels gets snubbed for either "Ruben Brandt, Collector" or "Have a Nice Day". I just can't quite see the scenario this year however; this was too big a year for anything more than one outside film getting in, so I'm gonna take the one that's most reminiscent of those beloved Studio Ghibli films that the Animated branch absolutely adores.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (Shortlist)
"Charm City"
"Communion"
"Crime + Punishment"
"Dark Money"
"The Distant Barking of Dogs"
"Free Solo"
"Hale County This Morning, This Evening"
"Minding the Gap"
"Of Fathers and Sons"
"On Her Shoulders"
"RBG"
"Shirkers"
"The Silence of Others"
"Three Identical Strangers"
"Won't You Be My Neighbors?"
I'm worried to say that this category is predictable because there's always something with this goddamn documentary category, but there's been a ridiculous amount of consistency across the precursors when it comes to documentaries. Which is exactly why, I'm looking around extra careful to see what exactly can sneak in here and why.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (Predictions)
Minding the Gap
RBG
Shirkers
The Silence of Others
Won't You Be My Neighbor?
I'm taking a few gambles here leaving off "Free Solo" and "Three Identical Strangers", just going on some hunches here but I think it'll be "Minding the Gap" or "Three Identical Strangers", not both, and personally, if the documentary branch is anything like me; I think they might be tired of mountain climbing documentaries and "Shirkers" is a documentary about filmmaking; I'm gona take a bit of a shot on that one.
Minding the Gap
RBG
Shirkers
The Silence of Others
Won't You Be My Neighbor?
I'm taking a few gambles here leaving off "Free Solo" and "Three Identical Strangers", just going on some hunches here but I think it'll be "Minding the Gap" or "Three Identical Strangers", not both, and personally, if the documentary branch is anything like me; I think they might be tired of mountain climbing documentaries and "Shirkers" is a documentary about filmmaking; I'm gona take a bit of a shot on that one.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE (Shortlist)
"Ayka" (Kazahkstan)
"Birds of Paradise" (Columbia)
"Burning" (South Korea)
"Capernaum" (Lebanon)
"Cold War" (Poland)
"The Guilty (Denmark)
"Never Look Away (Germany)
"Roma" (Mexico)
"Shoplifters" (Japan)
Well, this is one of the more anti-climatic categories at this year's Oscars. Seriously, if anything other than "Roma" wins, something went really sideways between now and the broadcast. That said, there are some other strong contenders. Only "Ayka" and "Birds of Paradise", which is aka "Beyond Paradise" btw, have only sporadically showed up elsewhere. I wouldn't rule them out, but I think the other films are pretty solidly competing against each other to be this year's aslo-rans.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE(Predictions)
Burning
Cold War
The Guilty
Roma
Shoplifters
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE(Predictions)
Burning
Cold War
The Guilty
Roma
Shoplifters
The Academy's liked Pawlikowski lately, so, "Cold War" gets in, plus I think it can get into Cinematography this year. They've liked Denmark films lately, so I'm going with "The Guilty" over Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck's latest, although I'm concerned a bit, he won this category last time. And, I have to think that Hirokazu Kore-eda has gotta finally get some recognition at some point. I'm worried about "Birds of Paradise" and "Never Look Away" from sneaking in for the last slot, but this has to be the time a South Korean film finally gets in, right?
CINEMATOGRAPHY (Possibles, longlist)
"22 July"
"American Animals"
"Annihilation"
"Aquaman"
"At Eternity's Gate"
"Avengers: Infinity War"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Beautiful Boy"
"Ben is Back"
"Bird Box"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Boy Erased"
"Burning"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
"Capernaum"
"Cold War"
"Colette"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"The Dawn Wall"
"Destroyer"
"Disobedience"
"Eighth Grade"
"Everybody Knows"
"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"First Reformed"
"Free Solo"
"The Front Runner"
"Green Book"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Hereditary"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom"
"Leave No Trace"
"Love, Simon"
"Madeline's Madeline"
"Mandy"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Minding the Gap"
"Monsters and Men"
"The Mule"
"The Old Man & The Gun"
"On the Basis of Sex"
"A Private War"
"Puzzle"
"A Quiet Place"
"Ready Player One"
"The Rider"
"Roma"
"The Sisters Brothers"
"Sorry to Bother You"
"Stan and Ollie"
"A Star is Born"
"Suspiria"
"Vice"
"Vox Lux"
"We the Animals:
"Welcome to Marwen"
"White Boy Rick"
"Widows"
"The Wife"
"Wildlife"
"You Were Never Really Here"
Something's that kinda interesting in this category is that with "Roma", Alfonso could become the first person to win an Oscar for Cinematography and Directing the same movie in the same year. That's gonna be interesting, he's usually had the great Emmanuel Lubezki with him, but he went with this one himself. P.T. Anderson did something similar for "Phantom Thread", so this could be the beginning of a minor trend. I guess we need something new for the category now that we've had a female nominee and Roger Deakins finally win, why not have some directors get in on the action too? Anyway, I think there's a few people who can sneak in but outside the main, eh, seven realistic nominees, I think "The Rider", maybe, maybe "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs", "Suspiria", "At Eternity's Gate" on the far outside. A surprise "BlackkKlansman" or "Vice" nomination would be cool here, but I don't suspect anything too weird here.
CINEMATOGRAPHY (Predictions)
Black Panther-Rachel Morrison
Cold War-Lukasz Zal
The Favourite-Robbie Ryan
First Man-Linus Sandgren
Roma-Alfonso Cuaron
I debated switching out "The Favourite" for "If Beale Street Could Talk", but I'm already going out on a limb leaving out "A Star is Born" and putting "Black Panther" in, and I don't usually go more than one nomination outside of what the ASC (Cinematographer's Guild) goes for. I might be regretting that one, but I'll stick with it. Laxton got in last time for "Moonlight", and Robbie Ryan's overdue to get nominated. That's my thinking anyway.
"American Animals"
"Annihilation"
"Aquaman"
"At Eternity's Gate"
"Avengers: Infinity War"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Beautiful Boy"
"Ben is Back"
"Bird Box"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Boy Erased"
"Burning"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
"Capernaum"
"Cold War"
"Colette"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"The Dawn Wall"
"Destroyer"
"Disobedience"
"Eighth Grade"
"Everybody Knows"
"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"First Reformed"
"Free Solo"
"The Front Runner"
"Green Book"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Hereditary"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom"
"Leave No Trace"
"Love, Simon"
"Madeline's Madeline"
"Mandy"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Minding the Gap"
"Monsters and Men"
"The Mule"
"The Old Man & The Gun"
"On the Basis of Sex"
"A Private War"
"Puzzle"
"A Quiet Place"
"Ready Player One"
"The Rider"
"Roma"
"The Sisters Brothers"
"Sorry to Bother You"
"Stan and Ollie"
"A Star is Born"
"Suspiria"
"Vice"
"Vox Lux"
"We the Animals:
"Welcome to Marwen"
"White Boy Rick"
"Widows"
"The Wife"
"Wildlife"
"You Were Never Really Here"
Something's that kinda interesting in this category is that with "Roma", Alfonso could become the first person to win an Oscar for Cinematography and Directing the same movie in the same year. That's gonna be interesting, he's usually had the great Emmanuel Lubezki with him, but he went with this one himself. P.T. Anderson did something similar for "Phantom Thread", so this could be the beginning of a minor trend. I guess we need something new for the category now that we've had a female nominee and Roger Deakins finally win, why not have some directors get in on the action too? Anyway, I think there's a few people who can sneak in but outside the main, eh, seven realistic nominees, I think "The Rider", maybe, maybe "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs", "Suspiria", "At Eternity's Gate" on the far outside. A surprise "BlackkKlansman" or "Vice" nomination would be cool here, but I don't suspect anything too weird here.
CINEMATOGRAPHY (Predictions)
Black Panther-Rachel Morrison
Cold War-Lukasz Zal
The Favourite-Robbie Ryan
First Man-Linus Sandgren
Roma-Alfonso Cuaron
I debated switching out "The Favourite" for "If Beale Street Could Talk", but I'm already going out on a limb leaving out "A Star is Born" and putting "Black Panther" in, and I don't usually go more than one nomination outside of what the ASC (Cinematographer's Guild) goes for. I might be regretting that one, but I'll stick with it. Laxton got in last time for "Moonlight", and Robbie Ryan's overdue to get nominated. That's my thinking anyway.
COSTUME DESIGN (Possibles, longlist)
:"22 July"
"Annihilation"
"Aquaman"
"At Eternity's Gate"
"Avengers: Infinity War"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Beautiful Boy"
"Ben is Back"
"Bird Box"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Boy Erased"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
"Capernaum"
"Colette"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"Destroyer"
"Disobedience"
"Everybody Knows"
"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"First Reformed"
"The Front Runner"
"Green Book"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Hereditary"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Leave No Trace"
"Love, Simon"
"Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Monsters and Men"
"The Mule"
"The Nutcracker and the Four Realms"
"Ocean's 8"
"The Old Man & the Gun"
"On the Basis of Sex"
"Paddington 2"
"A Private War"
"Puzzle"
"A Quiet Place"
"Ready Player One"
"The Rider"
"Roma"
"The Sisters Brothers"
"Sorry to Bother You"
"Stan & Ollie"
"A Star is Born"
"Suspiria"
"Vice"
"Vox Lux"
"Welcome to Marwen"
"White Boy Rick"
"Widows"
"The Wife"
"Wildlife"
"A Wrinkle in Time"
I've seen a few people thinking that "Crazy Rich Asians" might sneak into this category, sorta in the same way that a contemporary film like "The Devil Wears Prada" snuck in, but that was a movie about fashion and while I like the idea of a nomination like that, eh- I think I learned my lesson last year after taking a flyer on "The Dressmaker". Anyway, it did show up at the CDGs (Costume Designers' Guild) so it's in the air. That said, Sandy Powell got two nominations, Alexandra Byrne got one, all for period pieces, along with "BlackkKlansman" and "Bohemian Rhapsody". They rarely honor, modern period costumes like '60s-'70s Afro-chic. I mean, you need to be "Malcolm X" great for that, which was done by Ruth E. Carter, who got in for "Black Panther", and that's something I could see spoiling. Besides, I think the Academy likes it more now when the costumes are creating an original world these days as opposed to just replicating the past.
COSTUME DESIGN (Predictions)
Black Panther-Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite-Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns-Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots-Alexandra Byrne
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms-Jenny Beaven
Yeah, I'm taking the gamble on this one; I'm going with "The Nutcracker and the Four Realms" to get into the fifth slot. Seriously, any costume designer that takes one look at the trailer is just gonna see how much work went into the Costumes and yeah, I suspect it's getting in. Costume Designers can be weird too. Not as strange as the Makeup people can be come Oscar time, but they're strange enough to nominate it. Besides, Jenny Beavan's no slouch, she won for "Mad Max: Fury Road" a couple years ago. Going from that to this will impress anybody.
:"22 July"
"Annihilation"
"Aquaman"
"At Eternity's Gate"
"Avengers: Infinity War"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Beautiful Boy"
"Ben is Back"
"Bird Box"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Boy Erased"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
"Capernaum"
"Colette"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"Destroyer"
"Disobedience"
"Everybody Knows"
"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"First Reformed"
"The Front Runner"
"Green Book"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Hereditary"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Leave No Trace"
"Love, Simon"
"Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Monsters and Men"
"The Mule"
"The Nutcracker and the Four Realms"
"Ocean's 8"
"The Old Man & the Gun"
"On the Basis of Sex"
"Paddington 2"
"A Private War"
"Puzzle"
"A Quiet Place"
"Ready Player One"
"The Rider"
"Roma"
"The Sisters Brothers"
"Sorry to Bother You"
"Stan & Ollie"
"A Star is Born"
"Suspiria"
"Vice"
"Vox Lux"
"Welcome to Marwen"
"White Boy Rick"
"Widows"
"The Wife"
"Wildlife"
"A Wrinkle in Time"
I've seen a few people thinking that "Crazy Rich Asians" might sneak into this category, sorta in the same way that a contemporary film like "The Devil Wears Prada" snuck in, but that was a movie about fashion and while I like the idea of a nomination like that, eh- I think I learned my lesson last year after taking a flyer on "The Dressmaker". Anyway, it did show up at the CDGs (Costume Designers' Guild) so it's in the air. That said, Sandy Powell got two nominations, Alexandra Byrne got one, all for period pieces, along with "BlackkKlansman" and "Bohemian Rhapsody". They rarely honor, modern period costumes like '60s-'70s Afro-chic. I mean, you need to be "Malcolm X" great for that, which was done by Ruth E. Carter, who got in for "Black Panther", and that's something I could see spoiling. Besides, I think the Academy likes it more now when the costumes are creating an original world these days as opposed to just replicating the past.
COSTUME DESIGN (Predictions)
Black Panther-Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite-Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns-Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots-Alexandra Byrne
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms-Jenny Beaven
Yeah, I'm taking the gamble on this one; I'm going with "The Nutcracker and the Four Realms" to get into the fifth slot. Seriously, any costume designer that takes one look at the trailer is just gonna see how much work went into the Costumes and yeah, I suspect it's getting in. Costume Designers can be weird too. Not as strange as the Makeup people can be come Oscar time, but they're strange enough to nominate it. Besides, Jenny Beavan's no slouch, she won for "Mad Max: Fury Road" a couple years ago. Going from that to this will impress anybody.
FILM EDITING
"22 July"
"American Animals"
"Annihilation"
"At Eternity's Gate"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Beautiful Boy"
"Ben is Back"
"Bird Box"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Boy Erased"
"Capernaum"
"Cold War"
"Colette"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"Dark Money"
"Deadpool 2"
"Destroyer"
"Disobedience"
"Eighth Grade"
"Everybody Knows"
"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"First Reformed"
"Free Solo"
"The Front Runner"
"Game Night"
"Green Book"
"Hale County This Morning, This Evening"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Hereditary"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection"
"Leave No Trace"
"Love, Simon"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Mid90s"
"Minding the Gap"
"Mission: Impossible-Fallout"
"Monsters and Men"
"The Mule"
"The Old Man & the Gun"
"On the Basis of Sex"
"The Other Side of the Wind"
"A Private War"
"Puzzle"
"A Quiet Place"
"RBG"
"Roma"
"Searching"
"The Sisters Brothers"
"Sorry to Bother You"
"A Star is Born"
"Suspiria"
"Stan & Ollie"
"Three Identical Strangers"
"Tully"
"Vice"
"Vox Lux"
"We the Animals"
"Welcome to Marwen"
"What They Had"
"White Boy Rick"
"Widows"
"The Wife"
"Wildlife"
"Won't You Be My Neighbor?"
"You Were Never Really Here?"
My general rule with Editing is that, it's basically the second most accurate Best Picture predictor, so if you think a film has a good chance at Best Picture, it should get an Editing nomination. There's only been one exception to that in the last 30-some-odd years and that was "Birdman...", which didn't have much editing in it at all. Strangely, Cuaron, who's films also have little obvious editing, has actually won an Oscar for his editing for "Gravity", so it's okay with them, from him...? (Shrugs) Anyway, this is an exciting year for the category, 'cause there's quite a few exception to that rule this year. Action movies, especially ones with chase scenes sneak in here. Musicals often sneak in here, and there's multiple choices there of both of those. And then there's a real wild card in the mix with "The Other Side of the Wind", which was the finally completed final film from Orson Welles, edited together 40+ years after the last filming of the project was completed. I could legitimately see this category going completely off the rails this year by having a plausible five nominees that aren't even in Best Picture. I don't think that'll happen, but this is definitely the wildest the category's been in a while.
FILM EDITING (Predictions)
BlackkKlansman-Barry Alexander Brown
First Man-Tom Cross
Roma-Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough
A Star is Born-Jay Cassidy
Vice-Hank Corwin
I was trying to figure out a way to shove both "The Favourite" and "BlackkKlansman" in there, but I couldn't figure it out. I'm taking a shot that they'll leave "A Star is Born" as the musical choice, instead of "Bohemian Rhapsody" or "Mary Poppins Returns", but this is a tricky category this year; I think it best to play it safe for now.
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING (Shortlist)
"Black Panther"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Border"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Stan & Ollie"
"Suspiria"
"Vice"
Another Oscars, another year of the Makeup category just frustrating the hell out me. As a reminder, there's only three Makeup nominees because stupid, and the MUAHS (Makeup & Hairstyling Guild Awards) have an impressive reputation of being absolutely useless when predicting the nominees. Also, they're kinda insane. So, my theory has always been, don't count anything out, if you can watch the films, watch them, if not, then at least watch the trailers and see if you can see why they might nominate a film. Just for the sake of triviality, of the shortlisted titles, "Black Panther", "Bohemian Rhapsody", "Stan & Ollie". "Mary Queen of Scots" and "Vice" got at least one nomination. Don't by that you can rule out "Suspiria" and especially not "Border", if there's a foreign film that breaks into the shortlist, especially a Scandinavian one that's usually a sign to look out for it. I'll say this though, based on that, I don't think there's too many questionable nomination choices on the shortlist here. I'd be a little freaked out if "Suspiria" showed up, but other than that, this is a fairly tough choice for them.
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING (Predictions)
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Stan & Ollie
Yeah, I'm not confortable with any of these picks. "Black Panther" got the most MUAH nominations, so I'm throwing that in, "Mary Queen of Scots" is a makeup and hairstylins extravaganza so that's going in,- "Vice" should probably help Christian Bale win an Oscar, so I'm shoving that one in, but I'm tempted to put either "Border" or "Stan & Ollie" in instead though. Goddamn, if there's ever a year that absolutely proves this category should have five nominees, it's this one. Alright, screw it, I think I'm taking "Vice" and "Black Panther" out, and I'm going with "Border" and "Stan & Ollie". I gotta trust what I see and I think they'll be more impressed with how important the makeup is to "Border" and they'll be more impressed with John C. Reilly's transformation than Christian Bale's, despite him pushing for the Makeup guys nomination. These people nominated 'Bad Grandpa" for basically one full body transformation job, so I can definitely see them fucking off the beaten path here.
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING (Predictions)
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Stan & Ollie
Yeah, I'm not confortable with any of these picks. "Black Panther" got the most MUAH nominations, so I'm throwing that in, "Mary Queen of Scots" is a makeup and hairstylins extravaganza so that's going in,- "Vice" should probably help Christian Bale win an Oscar, so I'm shoving that one in, but I'm tempted to put either "Border" or "Stan & Ollie" in instead though. Goddamn, if there's ever a year that absolutely proves this category should have five nominees, it's this one. Alright, screw it, I think I'm taking "Vice" and "Black Panther" out, and I'm going with "Border" and "Stan & Ollie". I gotta trust what I see and I think they'll be more impressed with how important the makeup is to "Border" and they'll be more impressed with John C. Reilly's transformation than Christian Bale's, despite him pushing for the Makeup guys nomination. These people nominated 'Bad Grandpa" for basically one full body transformation job, so I can definitely see them fucking off the beaten path here.
ORIGINAL SCORE (Shortlist)
"Annihilation"
"Avengers: Infinity War"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"The Death of Stalin"
"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald"
"First Man"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Isle of Dogs"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"A Quiet Place"
"Ready Player One"
"A Star is Born"
"A Star is Born"
"Vice"
For the first time, the Academy has made a shortlist for both Original Song and Original Score categories. Personally, I love this 'cause it gives me as a professional last-second Oscar predictor, it's much less work to do. That said, I'm not certain I truly like this however. Too many shortlists can be disconcerting and I prefer seeing longlists of all the eligible scores and songs, at least I would as a voter.
ORIGINAL SCORE (Predictions)
Black Panther-Ludwig Goransson
BlackkKlansman-Terence Blanchard
First Man-Justin Hurwitz
Isle of Dogs-Alexandre Desplat
A Quiet Place-Marco Beltrami
I listened to a little bit of all the shortlisted scores. I looked up a few other things like name considerations, a few precursors I could find...- I'm not a music person per se, but I think I did okay here. I'm a little worried about "...Beale Street...", but other than that. Also, "Mary Poppins Returns", I guess could get in, but it'd be controversial. It may technically be originally musically, but I'm sure that's a lot of inspiration in that one. Oh, also, eh,
Black Panther-Ludwig Goransson
BlackkKlansman-Terence Blanchard
First Man-Justin Hurwitz
Isle of Dogs-Alexandre Desplat
A Quiet Place-Marco Beltrami
I listened to a little bit of all the shortlisted scores. I looked up a few other things like name considerations, a few precursors I could find...- I'm not a music person per se, but I think I did okay here. I'm a little worried about "...Beale Street...", but other than that. Also, "Mary Poppins Returns", I guess could get in, but it'd be controversial. It may technically be originally musically, but I'm sure that's a lot of inspiration in that one. Oh, also, eh,
ORIGINAL SONG (Shortlist)
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"-"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Treasure"-"Beautiful Boy"
"All the Stars"-"Black Panther"
"Revelation"-"Boy Erased"
"Girl in the Movies"-"Dumplin'"
"We Won't Move"-"The Hate U Give"
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Trip a Little Light Fantastic"-"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Keep Reachin'"-"Quincy"
"I'll Fight"-"RBG"
"A Place Called Slaughter Race"-"Ralph Breaks the Internet"
"OYAHYTT"-"Sorry to Bother You"
"Shallow"-"A Star is Born"
"Suspirium"-"Suspiria"
"The Big Unknown"-"Widows"
I've listened too all the shortlist songs. Honestly, this is a pretty good year in the category, and while I am grateful for this shortlist, but I would've liked to have at least seen the longlists of both these music categories. Sorry, Academy, I know you're trying some new things this year, but this was a major, major error. Anyway, on to what'll get nominated... Hmm... I know at least one "Mary Poppins Returns" song is in. I know, it's nice to think that it'll split the vote, but "Trip a Little Light Fantastic" is too good to overlook, and I like "The Place Where Lost Things Go" a little better personally. I wish that movie wasn't out, 'cause I think that would've given the f'ed up "A Place Called Slaughter Race" a better shot. I know there's a mild push for "Suspirium", because Thom Yorke, and I love him too, but that's not a particularly great song, in of itself. (He really should've made the Original Score shortlist instead.) I was also underwhelmed by the Sade song from "Widows" and I'm not that big on "Revelation" either, I'm a bit surprised that's done well. And I want Diane Warren to eventually win one of these things, but I didn't like "I'll Fight" that much. I thought that was one of her more generic songs personally.
ORIGINAL SONG(Predictions)
I've listened too all the shortlist songs. Honestly, this is a pretty good year in the category, and while I am grateful for this shortlist, but I would've liked to have at least seen the longlists of both these music categories. Sorry, Academy, I know you're trying some new things this year, but this was a major, major error. Anyway, on to what'll get nominated... Hmm... I know at least one "Mary Poppins Returns" song is in. I know, it's nice to think that it'll split the vote, but "Trip a Little Light Fantastic" is too good to overlook, and I like "The Place Where Lost Things Go" a little better personally. I wish that movie wasn't out, 'cause I think that would've given the f'ed up "A Place Called Slaughter Race" a better shot. I know there's a mild push for "Suspirium", because Thom Yorke, and I love him too, but that's not a particularly great song, in of itself. (He really should've made the Original Score shortlist instead.) I was also underwhelmed by the Sade song from "Widows" and I'm not that big on "Revelation" either, I'm a bit surprised that's done well. And I want Diane Warren to eventually win one of these things, but I didn't like "I'll Fight" that much. I thought that was one of her more generic songs personally.
ORIGINAL SONG(Predictions)
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"-The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
"All the Stars"-Black Panther
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns
"Trip a Little Light Fantastic"-Mary Poppins Returns
"Shallow"-A Star is Born
Well, I know Lady Gaga's getting in and she deserves to btw. After that, and a little process of elimination, I'm fairly certain the "Black Panther" song gets in, even if I thought the other one, "Pray for Me" that missed the shortlist was better.... (Sigh) To me, that left, two songs from Netflix films, I absolutely loved "Girl in the Movies" by Dolly Parton; I knew I'm tempting fate betting against it, especially since the Academy loves her and it's a song about wanting to be in the movies, but I absolutely think that scene in "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" is just unforgettable, and I think it might be harder to write such a classic-sounding cowboy song like that. Sorry, Dolly, I might be going more heart than mind here, but if the Academy voters saw "Dumplin'" enough to vote for it just to get here, then they must've seen "...Buster Scruggs".
"All the Stars"-Black Panther
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns
"Trip a Little Light Fantastic"-Mary Poppins Returns
"Shallow"-A Star is Born
Well, I know Lady Gaga's getting in and she deserves to btw. After that, and a little process of elimination, I'm fairly certain the "Black Panther" song gets in, even if I thought the other one, "Pray for Me" that missed the shortlist was better.... (Sigh) To me, that left, two songs from Netflix films, I absolutely loved "Girl in the Movies" by Dolly Parton; I knew I'm tempting fate betting against it, especially since the Academy loves her and it's a song about wanting to be in the movies, but I absolutely think that scene in "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" is just unforgettable, and I think it might be harder to write such a classic-sounding cowboy song like that. Sorry, Dolly, I might be going more heart than mind here, but if the Academy voters saw "Dumplin'" enough to vote for it just to get here, then they must've seen "...Buster Scruggs".
PRODUCTION DESIGN (Possibles, longlist)
"22 July"
"Annihilation"
"At Eternity's Gate"
"Avengers: Infinity War"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Beautiful Boy"
"Ben is Back"
"Bird Box"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Boy Erased"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
"Capernaum"
"Colette"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"Destroyer"
"Disobedience"
"Early Man"
"Eighth Grade"
"Everybody Knows"
"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"First Reformed"
"The Front Runner"
"Green Book"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Hereditary"
"Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation"
"The House with a Clock in Its Wall"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Incredibles 2"
"Isle of Dogs"
"Leave No Trace"
"Love, Simon"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Mid90s"
"Mission: Impossible--Fallout"
"Monsters and Men"
"The Mule"
"The Nutcracker and the Four Realms"
"On the Basis of Sex"
"Paddington 2"
"A Private War"
"Puzzle"
"A Quiet Place"
"Ready Player One"
"The Rider"
"Roma"
"The Sisters Brothers"
"Sorry to Bother You"
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
"Stan & Ollie"
"A Star is Born"
"Suspiria"
"Tully"
"Vice"
"Vox Lux"
"Welcome to Marwen"
"What They Had"
"White Boy Rick"
"Widows"
"The Wife"
"Wildlife"
Honestly, I took a small break between the last category I wrote about and this and have forgotten most of what I was gonna say and do. So-eh,- I'm just looking through the ADG Awards now. Usually these are good enough to tell what the Guild is thinking. I'd normally stay away from the Contemporary Film category, but they have a few interesting choices. "Crazy Rich Asians" and "Welcome to Marwen" seem like they might have an outside shot at getting in. Gold Derby's betting on "Roma" getting in. I'm not 100% on that one; I'm thinking that some might think much of that movie was too modern, even though it is technically a period film; there's a lot of scenes that seem like they could've been a found set. (Shrugs) Maybe that'll go in their favor.
PRODUCTION DESIGN(Predictions)
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
(Shrugs) I'm just taking a minor shot here with this one, but there seems like a lot more set design in "Ready Player One" than most people might realize. I don't think they want to put two sequels in, certainly not a recent sequel, I'm not sure whether or not they'll pick "Bohemian Rhapsody" or "Roma" the two big '70s era works over sci-fi/fantasy, eh... Just playing a hunch here.
"22 July"
"Annihilation"
"At Eternity's Gate"
"Avengers: Infinity War"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Beautiful Boy"
"Ben is Back"
"Bird Box"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Boy Erased"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?'
"Capernaum"
"Colette"
"Crazy Rich Asians"
"Destroyer"
"Disobedience"
"Early Man"
"Eighth Grade"
"Everybody Knows"
"Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"First Reformed"
"The Front Runner"
"Green Book"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Hereditary"
"Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation"
"The House with a Clock in Its Wall"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Incredibles 2"
"Isle of Dogs"
"Leave No Trace"
"Love, Simon"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Mid90s"
"Mission: Impossible--Fallout"
"Monsters and Men"
"The Mule"
"The Nutcracker and the Four Realms"
"On the Basis of Sex"
"Paddington 2"
"A Private War"
"Puzzle"
"A Quiet Place"
"Ready Player One"
"The Rider"
"Roma"
"The Sisters Brothers"
"Sorry to Bother You"
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
"Stan & Ollie"
"A Star is Born"
"Suspiria"
"Tully"
"Vice"
"Vox Lux"
"Welcome to Marwen"
"What They Had"
"White Boy Rick"
"Widows"
"The Wife"
"Wildlife"
Honestly, I took a small break between the last category I wrote about and this and have forgotten most of what I was gonna say and do. So-eh,- I'm just looking through the ADG Awards now. Usually these are good enough to tell what the Guild is thinking. I'd normally stay away from the Contemporary Film category, but they have a few interesting choices. "Crazy Rich Asians" and "Welcome to Marwen" seem like they might have an outside shot at getting in. Gold Derby's betting on "Roma" getting in. I'm not 100% on that one; I'm thinking that some might think much of that movie was too modern, even though it is technically a period film; there's a lot of scenes that seem like they could've been a found set. (Shrugs) Maybe that'll go in their favor.
PRODUCTION DESIGN(Predictions)
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
(Shrugs) I'm just taking a minor shot here with this one, but there seems like a lot more set design in "Ready Player One" than most people might realize. I don't think they want to put two sequels in, certainly not a recent sequel, I'm not sure whether or not they'll pick "Bohemian Rhapsody" or "Roma" the two big '70s era works over sci-fi/fantasy, eh... Just playing a hunch here.
SOUND EDITING (Possibles, Longlist)
"American Animals"
"Aquaman"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Capernaum"
"Cold War"
"Dr. Seuss' The Grinch"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"Free Solo"
"Generation Wealth"
"Green Book"
"The Guilty"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Incredibles 2"
"Isle of Dogs"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"McQueen"
"Mission: Impossible--Fallout"
"Never Look Away"
"Peter Rabbit"
"A Quiet Place"
"Quincy"
"Ralph Breaks the Internet"
"Ready Player One"
"Roma"
"Shirkers"
"Smallfoot
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
"A Star is Born"
"They'll Love Me When I'm Dead"
"Three Identical Strangers"
"Won't You Be My Neighbor?"
"You Were Never Really Here"
Can somebody tell the MPSE to move up their Awards schedule, like by a week, maybe two? Every year they're the last Guild out with nominees and the last to announce winners, it's very annoying for Oscar prognosticators And BTW, Academy, why shortlists for the Music categories now, but not for the two sound categories nobody can tell the difference between?! (Sigh) Anyway, if you don't know the difference offhand, and I don't blame you, but here, read this article if it helps:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/movies/sound-mixing-sound-editing-explainer.html
That's half-way relevant when it comes to the Oscars, but more importantly though, sound editing usually ends up nominating action or war films, and sound mixing usually ends up focusing on a film or two that's more musical. Like, one, maybe two nominees at most that are more musical. Other than that, the categories are basically the same.
SOUND EDITING (Predictions)
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible--Fallout
A Quiet Place
Roma
I wasn't going to throw in "Mission: Impossible" or "A Quiet Place" in anywhere, but they both over-performance at both the Sound Guilds. I think they get in here.
SOUND MIXING (Possibles, longlist)
"American Animals"
"Aquaman"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Capernaum"
"Cold War"
"Dr. Seuss' The Grinch"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"Free Solo"
"Generation Wealth"
"Green Book"
"The Guilty"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Incredibles 2"
"Isle of Dogs"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"McQueen"
"Mission: Impossible--Fallout"
"Never Look Away"
"Peter Rabbit"
"A Quiet Place"
"Quincy"
"Ralph Breaks the Internet"
"Ready Player One"
"Roma"
"Shirkers"
"Smallfoot
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
"A Star is Born"
"They'll Love Me When I'm Dead"
"Three Identical Strangers"
"Won't You Be My Neighbor?"
"You Were Never Really Here"
Yeah, I just copied and pasted the same list, what about it?
"American Animals"
"Aquaman"
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Black Panther"
"BlackkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Capernaum"
"Cold War"
"Dr. Seuss' The Grinch"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"Free Solo"
"Generation Wealth"
"Green Book"
"The Guilty"
"The Happy Prince"
"The Hate U Give"
"Incredibles 2"
"Isle of Dogs"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"McQueen"
"Mission: Impossible--Fallout"
"Never Look Away"
"Peter Rabbit"
"A Quiet Place"
"Quincy"
"Ralph Breaks the Internet"
"Ready Player One"
"Roma"
"Shirkers"
"Smallfoot
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
"A Star is Born"
"They'll Love Me When I'm Dead"
"Three Identical Strangers"
"Won't You Be My Neighbor?"
"You Were Never Really Here"
Yeah, I just copied and pasted the same list, what about it?
SOUND MIXING (Predictions)
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
I guess "Mary Poppins Returns" could show up here too, I don't remember the last time there was three films difference between the two Sound categories. Eh, maybe it gets in insted of "Bohemian Rhapsody" (Shrugs). I also wouldn't be too shocked if "Mission: Impossible--Fallout" comes up too.
VISUAL EFFECTS (Shortlist)
"Ant-Man and the Wasp"
"Avengers: Infinity War"
"Black Panther"
"Christopher Robin"
"First Man"
"Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Ready Player One"
"Solo: A Star Wars Story"
"Welcome to Marwen"
For some reason, "Black Panther" actually got completely snubbed by the VES Awards (Visueal Effects Society-, not technically a Guild yet, but, they're basically a Union) I mean, I guess it wasn't as relevant as it was in "Avengers..." but that's a bit surprising. Assuming that's an anomaly, which, (Shrugs) maybe it isn't and we're all over-estimating it, I don't think it is, and if we go from their big major award, it seems like either "Christopher Robin" or "Welcome to Marwen" will probably join "Avengers", "Ready Player One" and "Solo...". At least that's my thinking. "Mary Poppins Returns" got shutout too at the Guild, and I've heard that people walked out of the screening during "Jurassic World", so I suspect that's out. I suppose "First Man" could be in too.
For some reason, "Black Panther" actually got completely snubbed by the VES Awards (Visueal Effects Society-, not technically a Guild yet, but, they're basically a Union) I mean, I guess it wasn't as relevant as it was in "Avengers..." but that's a bit surprising. Assuming that's an anomaly, which, (Shrugs) maybe it isn't and we're all over-estimating it, I don't think it is, and if we go from their big major award, it seems like either "Christopher Robin" or "Welcome to Marwen" will probably join "Avengers", "Ready Player One" and "Solo...". At least that's my thinking. "Mary Poppins Returns" got shutout too at the Guild, and I've heard that people walked out of the screening during "Jurassic World", so I suspect that's out. I suppose "First Man" could be in too.
VISUAL EFFECTS (Predictions)
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Christopher Robin
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Christopher Robin
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
I was somewhat thinking that it would be unlikely for them to pick two space films, plus "First Man" looks quiet similar to "Apollo 13" and that 20+ years ago. I think they'll probably see all the detail required in making stuff animals look like stuffed animals and they're gonna give it to that. I could see "Welcome to Marwen" sneaking in, but that movie seems pretty unpopular despite the craft.
ANIMATED SHORT (Shortlist)
ANIMATED SHORT (Shortlist)
"Age of Sail"
"Animal Behaviour"
"Bao"
"Bilby"
"Bird Karma"
"Late Afternoon"
"Lost & Found"
"One Small Step"
"Pepe le Morse"
"Weekends"
Normally, I'd be a little more on the ball on these short categories, but you'll have to bare with me while I push through them if I can find them. I've been behind and these are gonna be a bit rushed. I wasn't able to watch "Animal Behaviour", although it looks funny as hell, "Bilby" or "Bird Karma", I could only find clips and trailers for them. (Is it just me or do trailers for animated shorts seem pointless? I mean, some of them are about as long as some trailers, might as well just show the damn cartoon, right?) Anyway, of the ones I've seen, I preferred "Bao", "Lost & Found", "Age of Sail" and "One Small Step" story-wise. Animation-wise, everything looked cool, but nothing really distinctively stood out to me. I guess "Animal Behaviour" looked a little different, but eh, usually I'm looking for the apple in the barrel of oranges and I didn't quite see it. Might be partly because three of the shortlist is Pixar though and even one of the non-computer animated shorts is by a pixar artist, so...
Normally, I'd be a little more on the ball on these short categories, but you'll have to bare with me while I push through them if I can find them. I've been behind and these are gonna be a bit rushed. I wasn't able to watch "Animal Behaviour", although it looks funny as hell, "Bilby" or "Bird Karma", I could only find clips and trailers for them. (Is it just me or do trailers for animated shorts seem pointless? I mean, some of them are about as long as some trailers, might as well just show the damn cartoon, right?) Anyway, of the ones I've seen, I preferred "Bao", "Lost & Found", "Age of Sail" and "One Small Step" story-wise. Animation-wise, everything looked cool, but nothing really distinctively stood out to me. I guess "Animal Behaviour" looked a little different, but eh, usually I'm looking for the apple in the barrel of oranges and I didn't quite see it. Might be partly because three of the shortlist is Pixar though and even one of the non-computer animated shorts is by a pixar artist, so...
ANIMATED SHORT
Age of Sail
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Lost & Found
Weekends
Age of Sail
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Lost & Found
Weekends
I went with what I like and I through in the hand-drawn Pixar one. Honestly, it looked the most interesting anyway. I thought about "Pepe Le Morse" for a bit, that could sneak in if they like a long one, but I was falling asleep through it myself.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT (Shortlist)
"63 Boycott"
"Black Sheep"
"End Game"
"LIFEBOAT"
"Los Comandos"
"My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes"
"A Night at the Garden"
"Period. End of Sentence"
"Women of the Gulag"
"Zion"
Half of this is finding films with the subject matter that's most important, and the other half is just, something that's a little weird-sounding and off-kilter enough to get recognized; that's how I figure "Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405" won this category last year, despite just being, a mostly okay doc. In case you're weird like me and thought this, no, "My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes" is not made by the kids of, or is about Bob Crane, although it's still a pretty good personal short actually. There's two Netflix, one Guardian and one PBS on the list, part of me is a bit reluctant to go with the obvious one, especially PBS's submission "A Night at the Garden", which is a great and powerful, disturbing movie, but it's mostly archive footage and I don't think anybody wants to vote for that. (It's about Nazis in America, in 1938, just trust me on that one.)
Half of this is finding films with the subject matter that's most important, and the other half is just, something that's a little weird-sounding and off-kilter enough to get recognized; that's how I figure "Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405" won this category last year, despite just being, a mostly okay doc. In case you're weird like me and thought this, no, "My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes" is not made by the kids of, or is about Bob Crane, although it's still a pretty good personal short actually. There's two Netflix, one Guardian and one PBS on the list, part of me is a bit reluctant to go with the obvious one, especially PBS's submission "A Night at the Garden", which is a great and powerful, disturbing movie, but it's mostly archive footage and I don't think anybody wants to vote for that. (It's about Nazis in America, in 1938, just trust me on that one.)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT (Predictions)
Black Sheep
Los Comandos
My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes
Period. End of Sentence
Zion
I picked "Zion" among the Netflix titles, 'cause, that's gotta be more enjoyable than "End Game", there latest documentary short about hospice workers and patients dealing with death.
Black Sheep
Los Comandos
My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes
Period. End of Sentence
Zion
I picked "Zion" among the Netflix titles, 'cause, that's gotta be more enjoyable than "End Game", there latest documentary short about hospice workers and patients dealing with death.
LIVE-ACTION SHORT (Shortlist)
"Caroline"
"Chuchotage"
"Detainment"
"Fauve"
"Icare"
"Marguerite"
"May Day"
"Mother"
"Skin"
"Wale"
I couldn't even find a trailer for one or two of these, but I did find a couple and managed to watch them. Just a minor critique of the Academy, can you stop filling this category with stories that are either about, or are threatened to be about dead kids! Seriously, even a couple of the ones I liked, it's like "Child in peril, will they die!?!?" Goddamn it. I miss the days when the Steven Wright or Steven Martin's of the world would show up in this category.
I couldn't even find a trailer for one or two of these, but I did find a couple and managed to watch them. Just a minor critique of the Academy, can you stop filling this category with stories that are either about, or are threatened to be about dead kids! Seriously, even a couple of the ones I liked, it's like "Child in peril, will they die!?!?" Goddamn it. I miss the days when the Steven Wright or Steven Martin's of the world would show up in this category.
LIVE-ACTION SHORT (Predictions)
Caroline
Chuchotage
Marguerite
May Day
Wale
Caroline
Chuchotage
Marguerite
May Day
Wale
Of these, I saw "Caroline" which is both good and incredibly frightening, especially for me for reasons I will not go into, and no, you won't be able to guess why offhand if you see the film. Anyway, it was good. I went back and forther between "Marguerite" and "Detainment". I probably should knock out "May Day" because I couldn't find a trailer for that one, but it sounds like it's funny and I want to award that. (Shrugs) I've watched a lot of pairings of kids with death, I want to laugh!!!!
(Exhales) Alright, not to spend the next day and a half trying to figure out where to put the Super Bet on my Gold Derby ballot. Take care.
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