Happy Primetime Emmys Weekend Everybody!
Whew! Sorry, I'm been unusually busy this past month, and unfortunately I had to devise a way to figure out how to make my Emmy Predictions, while doing several other things at the exact same time, and I still managed to not finish this in exactly the time I wanted, but thankfully, I'm not too late either. It's a big year for the Emmys this year, more streaming services than ever are major players, and especially in Drama Series, it seems like more categories than ever are unpredictable, and it's not like Emmys are particular known for predictability to begin with. The Creative Arts were last week, and under normal circumstances, I'd try to get through predictions as many of the important categories there as I could, but for the sake of convenience, I decided that I was only gonna predict the Creative Arts Emmy that were categories on Gold Derby's categories for the ones that have betting lines on them from Gold Derby. So, sorry, I'm not making a prediction on who's winning Outstanding Children's Program, although I'd lauded to ever bet against "Sesame Street". (Mote: "Sesame Street" did win the Children's show category. I'm really pissed that I didn't get to predict Commercial this year too.)
As to my tradition of acting like I'm the be-all and end-all Emmy Guru who only makes a mistake because there's conspiracies at foot from the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences to discredit and dissuade people from knowing my all-too powerful and knowledged Emmy prognostication powers..., eh, not this year. I'm tired. I got two days of work, and way too many new television shows on top of everything else, that I've had to at least start forcing my way through. (And spoilers, I found most of them underwhelming, Bret Easton Ellis is right, this supposed new Golden Age of Television were in is overrated, although there were some genuinely good shows in the bunch.)
So, every major category that'll be revealed Sunday Night, as well as how I'm doing so far from the Creative Arts. And btw, if you're wondering if I really did predict these Creative Arts categories early, well, yes, I did, and I can prove it since, every time I got around to writing up my prediction on a category, I put a poll up in the Facebook group, "Seek Better Cinema", and they can tell you that every Creative Arts category poll was put up before those awards started. (Oh for those wondering why I put up those polls, that's why. And also, because it's fun and I like doing it every year, but yeah, that's why I was doing that.) Alright, let's get through all the categories, I'll give you my thoughts, my predictions, and if I have preference, who I would vote for if I had an Emmys ballot. Let's start with the Comedy Series categories!
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Master of None-Netflix
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt-Netflix
The only real addition to this category this year is "Atlanta" and that movie has a shot, better than any other show I'd imagine to knock off "Veep", but "Veep" in a year where everybody thought it would underperform, it overperformed at the Emmys. Um, there's a lot of people, myself included trying to figure out the scenario in which the show could be defeated, by any of these shows, but since it's overtook "Modern Family" who everybody was surprised still managed to hang around in this category, despite only a sole nomination for Ty Burrell, leaving "Transparent" on the outside looking it, it just doesn't seem possible to stop it and all the shows that we think could, split the audience. (Shrugs) Maybe next year.
PREFERENCE: "Master of None"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Aziz Ansari-"Master of None"-Netflix
Zach Galifianakis-"Baskets"-FX Networks
Donald Glover-"Atlanta"-FX Networks
William H. Macy-"Shameless"-Showtime
Jeffrey Tambor-"Transparent"-Amazon Prime
This is one that's confusing me. Donald Glover is the current favorite, but, here's the thing, he's also up for directing and writing, and he's sorta the auteur face of the series, the same way, say Lena Dunham was for "Girls" or Louis C.K. was for "Louie", you know those types, and here's the things, none of them won in acting. They may or may not have won elsewhere, Louis C.K. is example 1-9 proving that, and nearly all those names, including fellow nominee Aziz Ansari are way bigger names than Donald Glover. Sorry, they just are; I know he's multi-talented, and has been for awhile, hell, I gave him an OYL Award nomination for his song from "Creed" soundtrack. Now the tricky part is trying to figure out where he wins and where he loses. Most are predicting he'll win in directing, 'cause there's way too much vote-splitting in Writing, and he's up against a former winner with a killer episode that I don't think is beatable. Directing, maybe, although I wouldn't be shocked by, say a "Veep" upset there. And besides, has won for directing his own series since Alan Alda did it for "M*A*S*H", and by the way, he's the only person who's won Writing, Directing and Acting for the same show and none of them were in the same year by the way. And directing is particularly hard for an actor to win you gotta go back to Betty Thomas winning for "The Larry Sanders Show" back in '92, I believe, and she wasn't even on that show; she had quit acting at that point. So, the next question, is, is there a good alternative? Hmm... Jeffrey Tambor's won this category twice, but "Transparent" inexplicably fell out of Comedy Series this year, so, not unprecedented, but a little odd. Aziz Ansari, is probably winning Writing, which he won last year, so despite "Master on None" on the upswing, I don't think they're in a rush to give him Acting. Galifianakis is certainly an interesting alternative. "Baskets" pulled the surprise upset with Louie Anderson last year, so they're watching it, and Galifianakis is good in it, but he also could fit in that category of auteurs like Glover and Ansari. That leaves Anthony Anderson and William H. Macy. Now, Macy, won the SAG Award in an upset recently, those don't usually have a correlation, but I could see him sneaking in here. But, this also makes perfect sense for Anthony Anderson, who's big at the time, and "Black-Ish" is still big enough to get into Series, and even added an acting nomination this year, and this is probably the best shot for it to win. This is a really unpredictable category this year, I can make an argument for and against every nominee. I'm honestly just closing my eyes and imagine each name up there, and see who winning feels the most right. (5 minutes later)
PREDICTION: Jeffrey Tambor-"Transparent"
Here's a pattern for you, from '03-'08 none of the winners in this category had their show nominated for Comedy Series. The thing all those winners had in common, Kelsey Grammer, Tony Shalhoub, Ricky Gervais, they all had well-established TV star runs either on their show before and/or on other big shows. The one exception in the last quarter century is Jim Parsons winning the first time for "The Big Bang Theory", and that was the beginning of a run. Before that you gotta go back to Craig T. Nelson winning for "Coach" in '91, and before that, and this is stretching it a bit, Jack Albertson winning for "Chico and the Man" in the late seventies. I think it goes to Tambor again.
PREFERENCE: Aziz Ansari-"Master of None"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Pamela Adlon-"Better Things"-FX Networks
Jane Fonda-"Grace and Frankie"-Netflix
Ellie Kemper-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"-Netflix
Tracee Ellis Ross-"Black-Ish"-ABC
Lily Tomlin-"Grace and Frankie"-Netflix
(Sigh) I'm really tired of this refrain, but I don't get how Julia Louis-Dreyfus keeps winning every year, but, she's gonna win again, and I'm hearing people are already projecting the insane possibility-turned-probability that she could win this damn thing seven years straight. (Sigh) She is great on the show, but...- Oh well. She's the favorite, if there's a spoiler, Allison Janney, won twice in the Supporting category, she switched to Lead this year, (Shrugs) "Mom" is really an underrated show, that's a funny series that has quite a smart dark undercurrent to it, but she's never gone up against Julia on a run and in a year where it seems like "Veep" is steamrolling. One possibility that I don't think people have thought enough about is Jane Fonda coming in and spoiling. I don't think much of "Grace and Frankie" but the fact that they finally through in Fonda and not just obligatorily nominate Tomlin because everybody's afraid of her beating the shit out of them, (And rightfully so) Fonda's a big name, multi-time Oscar-winner, they're apparently watching the show if it picked up a nomination, I can see her spoiling, in some universe. Not this one.
PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus-"Veep"
PREFERENCE: TIE: Pamela Adlon-"Better Things" and Ellie Kemper-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt". Yeah, I can't choose between them. Thank God, I'm not an actual voter, 'cause this would be too painful for me.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Louie Anderson-"Baskets"-FX Networks
Alec Baldwin-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Tituss Burgess-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"-Netflix
Ty Burrell-"Modern Family"-ABC
I was really, really hoping that Alec Baldwin would not be the favorite into this. First of all, it's just weird that such an establish Actor is nominated for Supporting Actor on "Saturday Night Live" of all things. I know, it's Alec Baldwin, but, (Sigh) he's not a regular cast member; sure he would won the Guest Actor Emmy easily if he were eligible in that category, but, I-I'm, we know that sketch comedy actors can win, Baldwin's a name, he's won multiple Emmys before, he's the biggest pop culture thing going on at the moment. I mean, he got into Reality Host for "Match Game", he got in for everything, and "SNL" is just on such a role that, I've very reluctant to bet against it, even despite, two former winners in Ty Burrell and Tony Hale in the category, last year's surprise winner, Louie Anderson, who's amazing on "Baskets" by the way; I finally got around to that show, took me a bit, but it's quite good, and-, I don't know why "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt" keeps getting shut out, but in a normal year, Tituss Burgess would be a walk in this category, but this is not a normal year....
PREDICTION: Alec Baldwin-"Saturday Night Live"
PREFERENCE: Tituss Burgess-"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Vanessa Bayer-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Kathryn Hahn-"Transparent"-Amazon Prime
Leslie Jones-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Judith Light-"Transparent"-Amazon Prime
Kate McKinnon-"Saturday Night Live'"-NBC
Kate McKinnon broke the Emmys when she upset Allison Janney in this category last year, not only for beating her, but for winning for a Variety-Sketch series. Part of me, kinda wishes we'd start to figure out a way to give a performer award or two for Variety, but she's still the heavy favorite here. Anna Chlumsky, I suspect is maybe the second choice, although Gold Derby has Judith Light in second choice. I think the more likely upset role might be if the votes are split between McKinnon and Leslie Jones, her "SNL" co-star. Still though, I can't imagine McKinnon being this mainstream and important culturally at the moment, and see her only win once.
PREDICTION: Kate McKinnon-"Saturday Night Live"
PREFERENCE: Kathryn Hahn-"Transparent"
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING-COMEDY SERIES
Atlanta-"B.A.N."-Donald Glover-FX Networks
Silicon Valley-"Intellectual Property"-Jamie Babbit-HBO
Silicon Valley-"Server Error"-Mike Judge-HBO
Well, I'm flying a bit in the dark on this one. I think "Veep" and "Silicon Valley" are both overrated, and I haven't seen "Atlanta" yet. Well, I'm fairly certain that "Atlanta" will win something, and it's the favorite here in Directing. Donald Glover is also up for Lead Actor, and is a heavy favorite there in a crowded field. It's been a while though since an auteur has won for acting. Aziz Ansari is also trying to do that this year, but Louis C.K. has over a half a dozen Emmys and none of them are for acting, but then again, he's somebody who's often been looked at as a writer and director behind the scenes first. I don't really know how people see Donald Glover. I remember him "Community" which is also a show that I never thought was as good as the praise indicated, If there is an episode of "Veep" that could beat it, I suspect it's "Groundbreaking" based on some of the other nominations. There's a couple rare, Writing/Acting precedents, but Directing/Acting, that two-fer has never happened, the closest was Alan Alda back in '76 winning Directing and nominated for Acting. I really don't think he's winning both, I just can't figure out which he will win.
PREDICTION: "Atlanta"-"B.A.N."-Donald Glover
PREFERENCE: "Silicon Valley"-"Intellectual Property"-Jamie Babbit.
OUTSTANDING WRITING-COMEDY SERIES
Atlanta-"B.A.N."-Donald Glover-FX Networks
Atlanta-"Streets on Lock"-Stephen Glover-FX Networks
Master of None-"Thanksgiving"-Aziz Ansari and Lena Waithe-Netflix
Silicon Valley-"Success Failure"-Alec Berg-HBO
Okay, the one major series I haven't been able to watch yet, of the nominees, not counting most of the TV movies and limited series, is "Atlanta", so I'm a bit behind the eight-ball on this one. So far, I can tell it's a sitcom about rap music. (Shrugs) I guess it's funny, doesn't ound bad. Although it does annoy me that it sounds a bit little "Mozart in the Jungle" with rap music, which makes me think, "Hey, that show's been on three years and is awesome, and you're not nominated that for anything! You anti-classical music or something? Seriously, go to Amazon, watch "Mozart in the Jungle" it's one of the best shows on TV, it's really being robbed here. Anyway, uh, two "Atlanta", two "Veep", "Silicon Valley" could steal this, but I- I just don't see how. That show's falling off on nominations and I think it's only got a cult appeal, and I'm not apart of the cult. I think "B.A.N." is the "Atlanta" episode that could overcome the vote-splitting, and that's only if "Veep"'s seriously falling off, and I just don't think "Veep"'s falling off yet. "Master of None" was a surprise winner in the category last year, with practically the same scenario, and this was a better episode.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Master of None"-"Thanksgiving"-Aziz Ansari and Lena Waithe
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR-COMEDY SERIES
Dave Chappelle-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Tom Hanks-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Lin-Manual Miranda-"Saturday Night Live"-
Boy, I'm not sure who to predict here. The Guest categories have been erratic as hell lately, but I think we can basically be assured that either "SNL" or Hugh Laurie's gonna win this. Laurie, btw, has never won an Emmy, so he's the sentimental choice, although I keep hearing Tom Hanks's name pop up. They're the favorite and second choice respectively, and Hanks hasn't won an Emmy as a performer yet, so.... I don't think either of the "Girls" guys can win, 'cause there's some other places they could win later, particularly Ahmed. I don't know how many people know Laurie hasn't won, but if they do go with an "SNL" guy, I think Hanks is probably the go-to, although I'll tell you, Lin-Manuel Miranda seems to be sixth on most polls, and I thought his episode was amazing in particular.
PREDICTION: Tom Hanks-"Saturday Night Live"
PREFERENCE: Riz Ahmed-"Girls"
WINNER: Dave Chappelle-"Saturday Night Live"- This genuinely surprised me, I had Chappelle third among the "SNL" people. He would've been fifth or sixth on my ballot, but others did. in my poll, most thought he was the best, so, (Shrugs)
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS-COMEDY SERIES
Becky Ann Baker-"Girls"-HBO
Angela Bassett-"Master of None"-Netflix
Carrie Fisher-"Catastrophe"-Amazon Prime
Melissa McCarthy-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
Kristen Wiig-"Saturday Night Live"-NBC
I'm a little surprised Kristen Wiig snuck in here, personally, and I didn't really recall her "SNL" episode that well, but that's the power of "SNL" these days. This is a tough category, the rest of the nominees could easily win in normal years. Right now, Gold Derby's got Melissa McCarthy ahead, she's basically for the one character, that Sean Spicer parody. I seriously doubt anybody's even gonna remember who the hell that is in five years..., although the still remember The Talking Mailbox as Halderman. There's my Carrie Fisher reference. I'm glad she got in, and she's the second choice, and "Catastrophe"'s a good show too, the Emmys don't have a strong tradition of being sentimental though and "Catastrophe" didn't get in anywhere else. To me, it's between McCarthy and Angela Bassett, who starred in the amazing "Thanksgiving" episode of "Master of None" that I think is gonna win for Writing, and deservedly so. I'm also glad to finally see Becky Ann Baker in there, and she's up for "Latching" the great finale episode of "Girls" that I thought should've at least gotten a Writing nomination (And frankly, the way the Emmys have treated "Girls" these last few years is really kinda insulting; I still contend it was the best on TV and this last season, it was as strong as ever.). Ah still though, this-, boy this is tough.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Angela Bassett-"Master of None"
I'm going with the upset, I don't think they're gonna ignore Bassett. I know I can't, even over Melissa McCarthy here. If it was just here and her performance, like the Tina Fey-Sarah Palin year, I might buy it, but I'm not even sure Alec Baldwin's winning so.....
WINNER: Melissa McCarthy-"Saturday Night Live" -Whenever I pick an upset in the Guest category, it's always the wrong one. (Sigh) I had her second choice.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul-AMC
The Handmaid's Tale-Hulu
House of Cards-Netflix
This is Us-NBC
Boy, this category. For the first time, ever, there's five new series nominated in the category, only 'Better Call Saul" and "House of Cards" returned this year, and both of them are considered the longshot. With no "Game of Thrones" this year, the category is wide open, but who's actually the favorite? "Westworld" got the most nominations, but "The Handmaid's Tale" is the most prevalent and biggest cultural hit, "The Crown" is the premiere classic drama series, "This is Us" is the best network drama in almost a decade, and is transforming what we think of as the family drama, and "Stranger Things" is somehow the favorite on Gold Derby? I-eh, I-, that's probably the series I get the least honestly, but it won a lot at the Creative Arts, including a huge upset win in Casting, which is often the big prognosticator in the award, purportedly. That said, it wasn't the only winner, in fact, every show nominated here won something, except "Better Call Saul" and they actually won something sorta too, in the short categories. Despite "Stranger Things" being a 10-9 favorite on Gold Derby, even the experts are split and all over the place. (Sigh)
PREDICTION: "The Handmaid's Tale"
PREFERENCE: "This is Us"
This was a tough category to put a preference too; to me, the two standouts were "The Handmaid's Tale" and "This is Us", with "Better Call Saul" and "The Crown" a solid third and fourth, and everybody in the okay-to-overrated camp and the reason I'm cheering for "This is Us" is that while I think "The Handmaid's Tale" is a great show and a powerful, wonderful metaphor/message/warning about where the world seems to going if it isn't checked properly, I think "This is Us" is actually a more important and relevant statement about the world today. It's not simply condemning in the best way possible, like "The Mary Tyler Moore Show" was to promoting the females in the workplace movement, sometimes it's best to show a great series that's as unpolitical as possible, just shows the realities of the modern world in as positive a light as possible. To me, it's idealistic and realistic at the same time. The great thing about "This is Us" is that it does that, it show's the struggle of a family with all kinds of personal, professional and emotional problems from their past and their lives today, it shows them well, and it shows them as though there's nothing unusual or peculiar about any of them. "This is Us" is very aptly and accurately titled, and to me, that's the higher kicker that barely puts it over "The Handmaid's Tale". I'd rather be represented by "This is Us" than "Handmaid's..." and I think most people who voted for "The Handmaid's Tale" would agree with that even.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Sterling K. Brown-"This Is Us"-NBC
Bob Odenkirk-"Better Call Saul"-AMC
Matthew Rhys-"The Americans"-FX Networks
Liev Schreiber-"Ray Donovan"-Showtime
Kevin Spacey-"House of Cards"-Netflix
Milo Ventimiglia-"This is Us"-NBC
Okay, so I was gonna predict Sterling K. Brown, and he is the favorite, but, I was just thinking about this, and on top of the vote splitting, it suddenly dawned on me that, I'm not sure he's the Lead. Seriously "This is Us" and I'd also argue "Westworld" it's pretty difficult to determine who exactly are the lead roles, and an argument can easily be made that they might all be supporting roles. That's why Anthony Hopkins seems like a stretch to me here, but yeah, after thinking this through, I'm kinda, questioning my thoughts on Sterling K. Brown as the favorite. However, if he's not the favorite, who does this go to? Let's say him and Milo Ventimiglia split votes, now and, I can't imagine Anthony Hopkins is winning for that role, which, is basically the same role Richard Attenborough played in "Jurassic Park". Okay, well, there's no former winner among the nominees, since Rami Malek and "Mr. Robot" fell off a cliff this year, as I predicted. Spacey's the one that's due, but I really don't think they like "House of Cards" anymore; I know I've felt it was floundering for awhile now. That leaves, Schreiber, Odenkirk and Rhys, all nominees last year, all good shows, although "Ray Donovan" is definitely the distant third, and "The Americans" underperformed this year. You know, they want to give it to Bob Odenkirk, and I know they want to give "Better Call Saul" something eventually, and it's not like it doesn't deserve it. He's the 4-1 second choice to Brown on Gold Derby, but Brown won Supporting for Limited Series last year, and he really is amazing in "This is Us". Milo Ventimiglia's got a good episode too, but is it good enough to split the vote? Man, if there's ever a year they should consider an Ensemble Performance category this is it, especially in Drama Series, and remember "Game of Thrones" isn't eligible this year.
PREDICTION: Bob Odenkirk-"Better Call Saul"
PREFERENCE: "Sterling K. Brown"-"This is Us"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Viola Davis-"How to Get Away with Murder"-ABC
Claire Foy-"The Crown"-Netflix
Elisabeth Moss-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Keri Russell-"The Americans"-FX Networks
Evan Rachel Wood-"Westworld"-HBO
Robin Wright-"House of Cards"-Netflix
I think we're all, kinda hoping for the expected, fearing the worst here, 'cause Elisabeth Moss, should for all-intensive purposes win this, but I've said that before. Claire Foy, I suspect, could play spoiler, but she's got time, and they can honor Lithgow if they want to honor "The Crown" for acting. Viola Davis, has won twice, I don't think she's gonna win a third time. "How to Get Away with Murder" is just unwatchable at this point, but she's Viola Davis. There's a couple arguments for the others, but it's the show of the year, this is the best place to honor it, and it's somebody who's been on TV, forever now, never won, her second iconic television character, after Peggy Olson on "Mad Men", and I still think of her as Zoey Bartlett from "The West Wing"; she's the heavy favorite, and I think people want to see her win. This is an easy call.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Elisabeth Moss-"The Handmaid's Tale"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jonathan Banks-"Better Call Saul"-AMC
David Harbour-"Stranger Things"-Netflix
Ron Cephas Jones-"This is Us"-NBC
Michael Kelly-"House of Cards"-Netflix
John Lithgow-"The Crown"-Netflix
John Lithgow is such a heavy favorite that everybody's really struggling to figure out who could beat him. Jeffrey Wright is in third place at 40-1 on Gold Derby, third. I guess there's a possibility of a weird upset here, like Wright or Jonathan Banks, suddenly winning now, or maybe Ron Cephas Jones for "This is Us", and I wouldn't be too disappointed in that, but I'm just honestly not seeing it. And I loved "The Crown" and Lithgow's the best part, and this is the only logical place to honor it...
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: John Lithgow-"The Crown"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Uzo Aduba-"Orange is the New Black"-Netflix
Millie Bobby Brown-"Stranger Things"-Netflix
Ann Dowd-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Chrissy Metz-"This is Us"-NBC
Samira Wiley-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Ah, another tough category. Well, they seem to be watching more "Orange is the New Black" than they were last year, 'cause it came into more categories, including acting, and Uzo Aduba has never lost an Emmy, but this category is loaded. Thandie Newton is listed as the favorite, and I'd like to see her win; she's been around forever, never really gotten that much recognition, and her episode, if she submitted the one I'm thinking of, is quite good. I'm not big on "Westworld", but that's a performance that I'm thinking about a lot. But, Samira Wiley has some good episodes, maybe more than Ann Dowd, who I suspect might get the Margo Martindale veteran votes. I think Chrissy Metz might get some votes, and Millie Bobby Brown is the girl of the minute. Young girl too, at age 13, she'd be the youngest actor to win a Primetime Emmy, and the record, boy this is obscure, is 14, by Roxana Zal, who won Supporting Actress for the TV movie "Something About Amelia" back in '84, the youngest ever to win in this category, 15-year-old Kristy McNichol for "Family", and she actually won two Emmy for that role. If she does win, then, I'm really gonna think "Stranger Things" might win seires.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Thandie Newton-"Westworld"
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul-"Witness"-Vince Gilligan-AMC
The Crown-"Hyde Park Corner"-Stephen Daldry-Netflix
The Handmaid's Tale-"Offred (Pilot)"-Reed Morano-Hulu
The Handmaid's Tale-"The Bridge"-Kate Dennis-Hulu
Homeland-"America First"-Lesli Linka Glatter-"Showtime
Stranger Things-"Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers"-The Duffer Brothers-Netflix
Westworld-"The Bicameral Mind-Jonathan Nolan-HBO
I'm really not comfortable picking "The Handmaid's Tale" here. Vote-splitting, has shown to generally be, too high a hurdle to win, and this is a category with an extra nominee, I'm not sure how "Homeland" got in there, and I don't know, I know the Pilot is the preferred option, but I think "The Handmaid's Tale" would've had more wins in the Creative Arts if that were the case. It did win Cinematography though, but I'm half-expected either "Stranger Things" or "Westworld' to steal this one.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "The Handmaid's Tale"-"Offred (Pilot)"-Reed Morano
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
The Americans-"The Soviet Division"-Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg-FX Networks
Better Call Saul-"Chicanery"-Gordon Smith-AMC
The Crown-"Assassins"-Peter Morgan-Netflix
The Handmaid's Tale-"Offred (Pilot)"-Bruce Miller-Hulu
Stranger Things-"Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers"-The Duffer Brothers-Netflix
Westworld-"The Bicameral Mind"-Lisa Joy and Jonathan Nolan-HBO
Well, my initial inclination was that "The Handmaid's Tale" was the favorite here, but now I'm not so sure. The lack of a "This is Us" nomination is disturbing, although predictable, they submitted strangely, so unlike other shows that don't get into Writing or Directing I kinda think that this won't be too detrimental for them when it comes to Best Series. I think the spoiler here could be "Chicanery", there's clearly a "Better Call Saul" contingent but they can never seem to break through and this seems to be the episode that they most likely could do it with. My real concern is "Stranger Things" winning, I genuinely didn't care as much for the "Stranger Things" pilot though. I tend to think of this category as what was the most impactful being the one that wins.
PREDICTION:"Westworld"-"The Bicameral Mind"-Lisa Joy and Jonathan Nolan
PREFERENCE: "Better Call Saul"-"Chicanery"-Gordon Smith
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Hank Azaria-"Ray Donovan"-Showtime
Brian Tyree Henry-"This is Us"-NBC
Gerald McRaney-"This is Us"-NBC
Denis O'Hare-"This is Us"-NBC
BD Wong-"Mr. Robot"-USA
Boy, "Mr. Robot" sure fell off the map. And to be honest, I'm not shocked, I hated the ending of the first season, I thought it was a truly deceitful ending, and frankly I don't like being lied to, so, yeah, I'm not sure how much there's left for "Mr. Robot", but I am happy to see BD Wong get nominated, but this is a loaded year. Two former Emmy winners are in the category, from last year in fact, since Mendelsohn switched from Supporting to Guest Actor and Hank Azaria's won several Emmys including one from last year for "Ray Donovan". The rest of course, "This is Us" and all three of these performances are worthy, but Gerald McRaney, has until now, never even been nominated for an Emmy, and he should win and he's the favorite to win. I'm a little worried about vote-splitting, but I think the word is out that McRaney has never been honored before. He's stared in a few series you might know, I grew up on "Major Dad", I discovered "Simon & Simon" before that, but this guy's one of the great premiere character actors you'll ever find so.... Yeah, long overdue, and he deserves it. Maybe Mendelsohn or Azaria can play spoilers, but I don't think so.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Gerald McRaney-"This is Us"
WINNER: Gerald McRaney-"This is Us"
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Alexis Bledel-"The Handmaid's Tale"-Hulu
Laverne Cox-"Orange is the New Black"-Netflix
Ann Dowd-"The Leftovers"-HBO
Shannon Purser-"Stranger Things"-Netflix
Cicely Tyson-"How to Get Away with Murder"-ABC
Alison Wright-"The Americans"-FX Networks
Well, there's your major nomination "The Leftovers" fans. Honestly, I'm-, I never thought the show was that great, so sorry, I'm not sure why. The rest, well, no Margo Martindale anymore but "The Americans" did get somebody in there with Alison Wright. Laverne Cox is nominated again, for the first time in a couple years, and I'm told she has an episode. Ann Dowd could be an upset winner here, 'cause she's actually also on "The Handmaid's Tale" and is nominated for Supporting Actress for that, but I doubt it. I'm still going through "Stranger Things", so far, I don't really get the Barb thing. Cicely Tyson's just there to fill out the ballot. Alexis Bledel,- I know a lot of people want to claim that there's a "Gilmore Girls" contingency in the Academy, I'm not betting on that, but I am betting that they've seen "The Handmaid's Tale" and they've seen Alexis Bledel's episode submission, and probably at least one or two episodes before that, um, in a fair race, I wouldn't imagine this even being close. She's the favorite on Gold Derby, it is a close, and there's a minor vote-splitting concern, but I think Bledel's got this and I think she deserves it.
PREFERENCE/PREDICTION: Alexis Bledel-"The Handmaid's Tale"
WINNER: Alexis Bledel-"The Handmaid's Tale"
OUTSTANDING VARIETY-TALK SERIES
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee-TBS
Jimmy Kimmel Live-ABC
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver-HBO
The Late Late Show with James Corden"-CBS
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert"-CBS
Real Time with Bill Maher-HBO
John Oliver is favored to repeat, close second choice is Samantha Bee, surprising strong third choice on Gold Derby is Stephen Colbert, he hasn't won in a while, so that's possible, and everybody likes the supposed "Comeback" story. In fact, he knocked out Jimmy Fallon out of the category, which was the real shock to some. (I suspect he's not coming back for awhile either.) I guess Corden leads the rest of the bunch, especially since they really seem to like his Carpool Karaoke bit. (Shrugs) Um, the only thing that's kinda holding me back from maybe predicting Samantha Bee, is that I think she has a better shot at Writing, instead, and she also won at the Creative Arts for her Variety Special, which Colbert didn't win for, so-eh, pretty much, it's now trying to figure out if she can beat John Oliver. I love Samantha Bee, but I think Oliver's top right now, and I think I'll believe he'll go down when I eventually see it. This is a category known for long runs....
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver"
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
Billy on the Street-TruTV
Drunk History-Comedy Central
Saturday Night Live-NBC
Tracey Ullman's Show-HBO
"SNL" is at 1-10 odds on Gold Derby to win, it's by far the biggest favorite out there and they're due. The fact that it didn't win the first two times this category came around, which let's face it, was basically invented for "SNL" was already enough of a blow, and this year, you can make a real argument that it's actually the biggest series on TV and of the nominees this year. I legitimately don't see anything that could upset it; I can't even really make much of an argument for anything else. The two shows "SNL" lost to, weren't eligible this year, "Billy on the Street" got added, but I think that was just to fill out the category and Tracey Ullmann always get obligatorily in whenever she has a show. The other three, they're okay, but they don't have the fanbase to compete. I don't know why I'm even bothering to ramble here, it's "SNL", this is the easiest pick-em of the night.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Saturday Night Live"
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL
Carpool Karaoke Primetime Special 2017-CBS
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee Presents: Not the White House Correspondents' Dinner-TBS
Louis C.K. 2017-Netflix
Sarah Silverman: A Speck of Dust-Netflix
Stephen Colbert's Live Election Night Democracy's Series Finale: Who's Going to Clean Up This Shit?-Showtime
It's actually been traditionally rare for a Stand-Up Performance to win this award, the prize usually goes to a stand-up in the Writing category, but the last stand-up performance to win this category, you gotta go back to '97 with "Chris Rock's Bring the Pain" won. But this is a weird year in the category in general and there's a lot of traditional players who aren't here. No award shows, no "Kennedy Center Honors", and instead essentially five comic performances. Last year, "Carpool Karaoke..." was the surprise winner over both Adele's primetime special and Beyonce's "Lemonade" not-to-mention the Kennedy Center Honors and Amy Schumer's primetime special, and it's still mind-boggling to me that it won. This was basically a clip show that won the category. And yet, I'm still worried that we're reading the category wrong and he can win again. Samantha Bee and and Stephen Colbert's voters can cancel each other out and the same with the stand-up performers and suddenly "Carpool Kareoke..." pulls ahead. Gold Derby has it the second choice, behind Colbert, and eh,... I don't know if they're honoring Colbert anywhere, it's probably here. Samantha Bee has better shots elsewhere and neither of them are winning over "Last Week Tonight" in Variety Series, so this makes sense to me. But I think it's gonna be close.
PREDICTION: "Stephen Colbert's Live Election Night Democracy's Series Finale: Who's Going to Clean Up This Shit?"
PREFERENCE: "Sarah Silverman: A Speck of Dust"
WINNER: "Carpool Karaoke Primetime Special 2017" -No, I still can't figure out why it keeps winning. I like it, but it ain't that great.
OUTSTANDING SPECIAL CLASS PROGRAM
70th Annual Tony Awards-CBS
Super Bowl LI Halftime Show Starring Lady Gaga-Fox/NFL Network
Hmm.... Well, it's nice to see this category get a little more interesting with all the live theatrical performances, although part of me still think they should submit in TV Movies instead, but the technicality of it being a live program puts them here. (Shrugs) They're the favorite right now, but I don't see it honestly. It got into a lot of technical categories, but none of these have won yet and this wasn't like an overloaded year. Especially for it being a musical, I suspect it probably would've gotten some performance into the acting categories if it really stood a chance. I could see Lady Gaga winning here, since this was a relatively unremarkable Tonys and it is Lady Gaga, and that was a good halftime show, but it's only a Halftime show. As annoying as this is, 'cause, frankly I'm still annoyed that the Accountants fucked up the cards, GRRR! (YES, I'M STILL NOT OVER THAT!) I think this is going to the Oscars this year. I mean, it's certainly the one we all talked about so.... I wish they'd change their name back officially to Academy Awards but whatever.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "The Oscars"
WINNER: "70th Annual Tony Awards" -You know what, that one's my fault, 'cause I was thinking of the wrong Tonys. The year before was actually pretty good. This year, was okay.
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
Drunk History-"Hamilton"-Derek Waters and Jeremy Konner-Comedy Central
Jimmy Kimmel Live-"The (RED) Show"-Andy Fisher-ABC
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver-"Multi-Level Marketing"-Paul Pennolino-HBO
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert-"Episode 0179"-Jim Hoskinson-CBS
Saturday Night Live-"Host: Jimmy Fallon"-Don Roy King-NBC
You know, I generally tend to make the rule that if "SNL" is nominated here, I predict them, and that's usually a good bet. Strangely though, Don Roy king hasn't won it in three years, and actually he wasn't even nominated two years ago. The weird one, here and they have it ranked as a longshot, but "Drunk History", now, I'm not a typical fan of that show, but, that's the kind of series that I think could steal this. Last year for instance, "Inside Amy Schumer" won this category, so there's precedent. And there's also a strong possibility for John Oliver to win too, and if Paul Pennolino does win an Emmy here, I think it's going be a guarantee at that point that it's John Oliver's night.
PREDICTION: "Saturday Night Love"-Don Roy King
PREFERENCE: "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert"-Jim Hoskinson
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee Presents Not the White House Correspondents' Dinner-Paul Pennolino-TBS
The Oscars-Glenn Weiss-ABC
Stephen Colbert's Live Election Night Democracy's Series Finale: Who's Going to Clean Up This Shit?-Jim Hoskinson-Showtime
Tony Bennett Celebrates 90: The Best is Yet to Come-Jerry Foley-NBC
Gold Derby has "The Oscars" ahead here, the Academy does love Glenn Weiss, he's directed the Emmy on several occasions. I'm tempted but..... I'm also wondering if perhaps Stephen Colbert's show might be a little more complex to direct. This one's tricky; I don't think Jerry Foley's gonna win this one for Tony Bennett, I think it's between the other three. Hmm...
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Stephen Colbert's Live Election Night Democracy's Series Finale: Who's Going to Clean Up This Shit?"-Jim Hoskinson
WINNER: "The Oscars"-Glenn Weiss
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee-Writers: Jo Miller, Samantha Bee, et. al.- TBS
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver-Writers: John Oliver, Tim Carvell, Kevin Avery, et. al.- HBO
Late Night with Seth Meyers-Writers: Seth Meyere, Jermaine Affonso, et. al.-NBC
The Last Show with Stephen Colbert-Head Writers: Barry Julien, Jay Katsir and Opus Moreschi; Writers: Stephen Colbert, et. al.-CBS
Saturday Night Live-Head Writers: Chris Kelly, Sarah Schneider, Kent Sublette, Bryan Tucker; Weekend Update Head Writer: Pete Schultz; Writers: James Anderson, et. al.-NBC
Gold Derby's got John Oliver way ahead here, but "Saturday Night Live" is a bit the surprise here, as the second choice, but then again, they're just having awards-wise, what's probably the best year of the series' history, and that's saying something. That said, they're rarely won for Writing, only four times, and only twice after the seventies, once in '89 when John Downey was Head Writer and-eh, in 2002, when Tina Fey was running the room. I think this might be the best chance it's had in years, and they're probably gonna win one, maybe two more Emmys and break their personal record of six this year, but I'm not sure it's gonna be in this category. If there's a real threat to John Oliver, it might be Samantha Bee. She's won this weekend for Writing already, and I can see them doing the Samantha Bee wins Writing, John Oliver wins Series split, like they'd sometimes do with Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart, but I'm not positive and assured enough to predict that.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver"
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee Presents: Not the White House Correspondents' Dinner-Writers: Samantha Bee, Jo Miller, et. al.-TBS
Louis C.K. 2017-Louis C.K.-Netflix
Sarah Silverman: A Speck of Dust- Sarah Silverman-Netflix
Stephen Colbert's Live Election Night Democracy's Series Finale: Who's Going to Clean Up This Shit?-Head Writers: Jay Katsir and Opus Moreschi, Writers: Stephen Colbert, et. al.-Showtime
70th Annual Tony Awards-Dave Boone; Special Material by Mike Gibbons, Lauren Greenberg, Ian Karmel, Ben Winston and Justin Shanes-CBS
Good God, here's a category that's impossible to predict. I probably would've replaced the Tonys with Amy Schumer's "The Leather Special" instead, but, this is a loaded category and they're running fifth anyway. I'm of two minds here, lately, the Emmys have gone out of their way to honor singular writers in this category, Louis C.K. for instance has won this category before, and Sarah Silverman just a couple years ago too, won this category for previous stand-up specials, I've seen both of these specials, they're amazing, some of the best work they've ever done. But then, we get, the two political stuff.... (Sigh) Okay, I'm gonna take a shot here and say, if it's between those two, Samantha Bee, is probably the favorite, 'cause let's face it, it's a little less depressing, and I can't imagine anybody rewatching the Stephen Colbert one to vote and, able to get through it without re-going through the trauma of that night. This is tough call, Gold Derby has "Full Frontal" in the lead, plus, I don't think Samantha Bee's winning over John Oliver, at least not in Series this year, so, this is probably the best place to honor her.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Full Frontal with Samantha Bee Presents: Not the White House Correspondents' Dinner"
WINNER: "Full Frontal with Samantha Bee Presents: Not the White House Correspondents' Dinner"
OUTSTANDING REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race-CBS
American Ninja Warrior-NBC
RuPaul's Drag Race-VH1
Last couple years "The Voice" has been, sorta inexplicably winning this category. I like "The Voice" I vastly prefer it to utter garbage that was "American Idol", but it hasn't been the best Variety Series since it's early seasons. The traditional favorite is "The Amazing Race" which has always been strong, and still is, despite getting tiresome. Still, the talk of the Reality world is "RuPaul's Drag Race" and the fact that it just exploded this year, across the Reality spectrum, it's hard to think that it will lose this category. Maybe it's a fluke, but at the very least it finally kicked out "Dancing with the Stars" which, at a minimum means it's doing a good thing, and this category, when it does sway itself away from old faithful, tends to be trendy.
PREDICTION: "RuPaul's Drag Race"
PREFERENCE: "Project Runway"
OUTSTANDING STRUCTURED-REALITY PROGRAM
Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives-Food Network
Lip Sync Battle-Spike TV
Who Do You Think You Are?-TLC
PREDICTION: "Shark Tank"
PREFERENCE: "Antiques Roadshow"
WINNER: "Shark Tank"
OUTSTANDING UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM
Born This Way-A&E
Deadliest Catch-Discovery Channel
Gaycation with Ellen Page-Viceland
RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked-Youtube
United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell-CNN
Boy, Gold Derby's got past winners "Deadliest Catch" and "Intervention" near the bottom of the rankings. That's honestly a bit surprising to me. I've never been a fan of either, but they're quality's always been spot on and their perennial rankings as favorites never seemed unreasonable. "RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked" marks the first time a Youtube series got in there, and a secondary show connected to a previous show at that. Maybe that's enough.... I wouldn't rule anything out, but I suspect this is "United Shades of America"'s year, they're the heavy favorite.
PREDICTION: "United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell"
PREFERENCE: "GayCation with Ellen Page"
WINNER: "United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell"
OUTSTANDING HOST FOR A REALITY OR REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
Alec Baldwin-"Match Game"-ABC
W. Kamau Bell-"United States of America with W. Kamau Bell"-CNN
RuPaul Charles-"RuPaul's Drag Race"-VH1
Heidi Klum & Tim Gunn-"Project Runway"-Lifetime
Gordon Ramsay-"MasterChef Junior"-FOX
Martha Stewart & Snoop Dogg-"Martha & Snoop's Potluck Dinner Party-VH1
Well, this category got strange and weird all of a sudden. Okay, first off, Alec Baldwin, hosts a game show, not a reality show, I call bullshit on that nomination. Secondly, he's good on that show, by far the most deserving of ABC's new run of game shows to be nominated and he's had a helluva year. Secondly, amazingly, (Or not so amazingly, really) this is Gordon Ramsay's first ever Emmy nomination, for any of his programs. He's never even gotten in for a Producer before, and the best his other shows would get would usually be title design or production or lighting design until now. Thirdly, Martha Stewart & Snoop Dogg! (Snickers and shakes head.) Man, last year's winner RuPaul, is arguably the most normal nomination in this group, and she's the favorite again, heavy favorite according to Gold Derby. I can buy that, and since the show's picked up everywhere this year, I'd say it's an easy call.
PREDICTION: RuPaul Charles-"RuPaul's Drag Race"
PREFERENCE-Heidi Klum & Tim Gunn-"Project Runway"
WINNER: RuPaul Charles-"RuPaul's Drag Race"
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
Big Little Lies-HBO
FEUD: Bette and Joan-FX Networks
The Night Of-HBO
PREDICTION: "Big Little Lies"
OUTSTANDING TELEVISION MOVIE
Black Mirror: San Junipero-Netflix
Dolly Parton's Christmas of Many Colors: Circle of Love-NBC
The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks-HBO
Sherlock: The Lying Detective (Masterpiece)-PBS
The Wizard of Lies-HBO
I think we've officially gotten to the point where the Television Movie has basically become, eh, what's the word, (Shrugs) irrelevant. Not bad, not good, but irrelevant, just not particularly important or relevant. Two of the nominees, "Sherlock" and "Black Mirror" aren't really television movies, although I think you could argue that they are technically, if you want to go back to the Wheel scheduling of things like "Columbo" and "McMillan & Wife" for instance, especially "Black Mirror", and the two obligatory HBO nominees underperformed both critically, with audiences and with the awards, and somehow a Dolly Parton Christmas special, something, got the fifth nomination, which would be weird, if it wasn't for the fact Bill Murray's satire on Christmas specials "A Very Murray Christmas" was nominated in the category last year. So, basically, unless "The Wizard of Lies" comes back and pulls off the upset, (Shrugs) which I doubt will happen, but so, were picking between two series, which submit in the TV movie category, mainly because their episodes are too long to submit anywhere else. I think it's a toss-up, I never want to bet against "Sherlock" again, but "Black Mirror", to me, seems to have the momentum.
PREDICTION: "Black Mirror: San Junipero"
PREFERENCE: "Sherlock: The Lying Detective (Masterpiece)"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Riz Ahmed-"The Night Of"-HBO
Benedict Cumberbatch-"Sherlock: The Lying Detective"-PBS
Robert De Niro-"The Wizard of Lies"-HBO
Ewan McGregor-"Fargo"-FX Networks
Geoffrey Rush-"Genius"-National Geographic
John Turturro-"The Night Of"
Ooh, tough category here. Especially since there's no "Big Little Lies" or "FEUD..." nominee here, I think this is a very close race and all six nominees have a legitimate shot at winning this. Cumberbatch has won in the past for instance, and you always gotta look out for "Sherlock" anyway. Robert De Niro, making a TV movie for the first time, they love to award movie legends in this category, and this is a big role, but "The Wizard of Lies" underperformed everywhere. In fact, Geoffrey Rush has a better shot at winning for "Genius", the Ron Howard, Albert Einstein miniseries, but I think those two will cancel each other out. Ewan McGregor, might pull this off, "Fargo", has won in acting, yet though, until it happens, I don't want to predict it, but that leaves, the two from "The Night Of", but I think that's where to go. Even with vote-splitting, this is the most obvious and likely place to honor that, and a lot of people do like that miniseries, and Riz Ahmed is hot right not. He got two nominations this year, as they remember him from "Girls", and I thought he had a shot at winning that. This was a bigger, more important role, and even against someone like Turturro, who's equally as good, I think Ahmed can take this. Gold Derby has him as the slight favorite, but it's 1-2 odds, over DeNiro, I'm willing to go on that ledge with him.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Riz Ahmed-"The Night Of"
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Carrie Coon-"Fargo"-FX Networks
Felicity Huffman-"American Crime"-ABC
Nicole Kidman-"Big Little Lies"-HBO
Jessica Lange-"FEUD: Bette and Joan"-FX Networks
Reese Witherspoon-"Big Little Lies"-HBO
Susan Sarandon-"FEUD: Bette and Joan"-FX Networks
Witherspoon is a Producer on "Big Little Lies" I believe, so I think they want to honor her there instead, so Kidman's the heavy favorite, Jessica Lange is the second choice according to Gold Derby, which kinda annoys me, since she won a couple of these for "American Horror Story" pretty recently, and both of those times were upsets. Felicity Huffman, might be an upset chance here, but they seem to like Regina King more, plus Huffman has an Emmy for "Desperate Housewives" so there's no real pressure to get her one. Carrie Coon on the other hand, was also on "The Leftovers" and "Fargo', I think is a better show, so that might be a direction, at the same token, "Fargo" has never done well in acting races, even when it seems like they should win, they never do, and given everything else, it still seems like an off-year for them, mainly 'cause there's too much competition, but still....
PREDICTION: Nicole Kidman-"Big Little Lies"
PREFERENCE: Susan Sarandon-"Feud: Bette and Joan"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Bill Camp-"The Night Of"-HBO"
Alfred Molina-"FEUD: Bette and Joan"-FX Networks
Alexander Skarsgard-"Big Little Lies"-HBO
David Thewlis-"Fargo"-FX Networks
Stanley Tucci-"FEUD: Bette and Joan"-FX Networks
Michael Kenneth Williams-"The Night Of"-HBO
Well, the interesting thing about this race is that, it doesn't seem like anybody's completely out of it. Bill Camp and Michael Kenneth Williams are both 20-1 underdogs, and they're the longshot. There's also a vote-splitting potential here that puts Alexander Skarsgard in the lead, and "Big Little Lies' is a favorite, that makes sense, and he's a TV guy who they didn't get a chance to honor when he was on "True Blood". That said, Alfred Molina is a very tempting second choice, and David Thewlis might be "Fargo"'s best shot at win, if Nicole Kidman is as ahead in Lead Actress as everyone seems to think she is. I don't know though, it seems like all the ducks for Skarsgard though.
PREDICTION: Alexander Skarsgard-"Big Little Lies
PREFERENCE Alfred Molina-"FEUD: Bette and Joan"
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Judy Davis-"FEUD: Bette and Joan"-FX Networks
Laura Dern-"Big Little Lies"-HBO
Jackie Hoffman-"FEUD: Bette and Joan"-FX Networks
Regina King-"American Crime"-ABC
Michelle Pfeiffer-"The Wizard of Lies"-HBO
Shailene Woodley-"Big Little Lies"-HBO
I wished I liked "Enlightened", that failed HBO series Laura Dern had. I don't think it was as great as some did, and I think she would be the one from "Big Little Lies" that'd be most likely to win. I think both Jackie Hoffman or Judy Davis will count each other out, and I can't really imagine Michelle Pfeiffer winning here, but I'm a little about worried about Regina King spoiling again. It's the last season of "American Crime", she's won the last two years, both times were a big upset. I can see it happening here, but, eh, I think they like "Big Little Lies" too much, and I think they really want to finally give Laura Dern something.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: Laura Dern-"Big Little Lies"
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR DRAMATIC SPECIAL
Big Little Lies-Jean-Marc Vallee-HBO
Fargo-The Law of Vacant Places-Noah Hawley-FX Networks
FEUD: Bette and Joan-And the Winner Is... (The Oscars of 1962)"-Ryan Murphy-FX Networks
Genius-"Einstein: Chapter One"-Ron Howard-National Geographic
The Night Of-"The Art of War"-James Marsh-HBO
The Night Of-"The Beach"-Steven Zaillian-HBO
Wow! Gold Derby has "Big Little Lies" as the 4-7 favorite, that's the biggest favorite I've seen yet. Well, I definitely buy that "The Night Of" could split votes, but I could see a couple places where it's weaker. For one, the "FEUD..." episode has a lot of technical aspects that I imagine directors probably noticed, and let's not count out "Fargo", everything about that series is basically amazing direction. Plus, I got imagine there's a sentiment vote for Ron Howard out there. "Genius" overperformed when it came to nominations, and Ron Howard's only two Emmys are for Producing, one for the miniseries "From the Earth to the Moon", and for Comedy Series for "Arrested Development", but none for directing. I still think that, when you're competing against somebody who directed an entire miniseries, I mean, just the workload alone..., and last year Susanne Bier practically won for the same reason last year and that was an upset, "Big Little Lies" is a favorite.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Big Little Lies"-Jean-Marc Vallee
OUTSTANDING WRITNG FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR DRAMATIC SPECIAL
Big Little Lies-David E. Kelley-HBO
Black Mirror: San Junipero-Charlie Brooker-Netflix
Fargo-"The Law of Vacant Places"-Noah Hawley-FX Networks
FEUD: Bette and Joan-"And the Winner Is... (The Oscars of 1963)"-Ryan Murphy-FX Networks
FEUD: Bette and Joan-"Pilot"-Jaffe Cohen, Michael Zam and Ryan Murphy-FX Networks
The Night Of-"The Call of the Wild"-Richard Price and Steven Zaillian-HBO
If there isn't a "FEUD..." split, then I suspect that "And the Winner Is...." is the episode that'll pull ahead, but that's assuming that "FEUD..." is the favorite. I'm not sold quite yet. It didn't perform as well at the Creative Arts as expected and "Big Little Lies" stole the Casting Emmy from under everybody's nose. "Fargo", is a possibility, but I think it's a longshot. "Black Mirror..." is a bit of an Emmy mystery. We know that the Emmys like "Sherlock" which has a similar movie-length based structure, and like "Sherlock", "Black Mirror" submits a single episode as a TV movie, and I've seen people predicting it to win TV Movie, which would be a slight upset since "Sherlock"'s won that for the last two year, but that didn't get into this category. Unlike "Sherlock..." however, it didn't get into any acting categories. (And yeah, sorry I totally spaced and completely forgot to put "The Night Of''s nomination here when I posted the nominees the first time. Sorry.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "Big Little Lies"-David E. Kelley
My preference vote is mainly because David E. Kelley has only one Emmy for Writing and that was back in '91, the rest of his Emmys are for producing wins for "L.A. Law", "Picket Fences", "The Practice" and "Ally McBeal". (Okay, he does admittedly have a lot of Emmys already though.)
OUTSTANDING ANIMATED PROGRAM
Archer-"Archer Dreamland"-FX Networks
Bob's Burger's-"Bob, Actually"-FOX
Elena and the Secret of Avalor (Sofia the First)-Disney Channel
The Simpsons-"The Town"-FOX
South Park-"Member Berries"-Comedy Central
Normally I trust the Gold Derby ratings, but I'm just in shock at this one. They have "Archer", way the hell ahead at 5/4 odds, with a second choice battle between "The Simpsons" and "Bob's Burgers" as longshots, and look I love "Bob's Burgers" and "The Simpsons" and I really love "Archer", but-eh, I think the odds are completely backwards. I think this is "South Park"'s to lose, especially with that episode and season, uh, might not be the most fun to reflect on anymore, but it was big news on the television front for a while. The other three shows have of course won this in the past, "Bob's Burgers" two wins came out of nowhere and were big upsets too, so I'm worried about them. "Archer" finally broke through last year, I think some are thinking it's time for it to start a run, I'd be in favor of that, but I also suspect "Sofia the First" might come out of nowhere as the Animated Special win, maybe as an upset, but I just don't see how "South Park" isn't the big favorite and I think the easy winner. I'm going against the grain here, but..... (Shrugs)
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "South Park"
WINNER: "Archer" -I'm really kinda shocked they ignored "South Park" here, but I do love "Archer". First time in a long time that one series won this category twice in a row btw.
OUTSTANDING SHORT-FORM ANIMATED PROGRAM
Adventure Time-"Islands Part 4: Imaginary Resources"-Cartoon Network
Disney Mickey Mouse-"Split Decisions"-Disney Channel
Marvel's Rocket & Groot-"Mr. Greg"-Disney XD App
Steven Universe-"Mr. Greg"-Cartoon Network
Teen Titans Go!-"Orangins"-Cartoon Network
I'll a little blind here 'cause I'm not that familiar with the two comic book shows, so I could be surprised by them, but I'm fairly certain it's between "Adventure Time" and "Steven Universe", they're the two best, and I'm-, I"m more ambivalent on "Adventure Time", so I'm in the "Steven Universe" camp, and I think more members of the Academy are as well.
PREDICTIONS/PREFERENCE: "Steven Universe"
WINNER: "Adventure Time" - (Shrugs) I honestly don't get the appeal of "Adventure Time", but alright.
OUTSTANDING CHARACTER VOICE-OVER PERFORMANCE
Dee Bradley Baker-"American Dad!"-"Fight and Flight"-TBS
Nancy Cartwright-"The Simpsons"-"Looking for Mr. Goodbart"-FOX
Mo Collins-"F is for Family"-"Pray Away"-Netflix-Netflix
Kevin Kline-"Bob's Burgers"-"The Last Gingerbread House of the Left"-FOX
Seth MacFarlane-"Family Guy"-"The Boys in the Band"-FOX
Kristen Schaal-"BoJack Horseman"-"That's Too Much, Mani"-Netflix
I'm gonna say something weird here, and it's that Kristen Schaal got nominated for the wrong show. She should've been in for "Bob's Burgers" instead of "BoJack Horseman". It's a better more interesting character, but... ugh.... This is a strange category here, there's no obvious favorite from what I can tell. I doubt they're watching "F is for Family' enough to have Mo Collins win, but I'm not sure who's actually gonna take this. Kevin Kline is the favorite, which, he's not a regular-regular on that show, but he's on it enough that it's not gonna seem like an Anne Hathaway win or something like that. I think Seth MacFarlane actually has a real shot at this. Him and Collins are the two playing multiple roles in their episodes. I can see the argument to give it to Kristen Schaal as well, but I don't think they like "BoJack Horseman" yet, and they have shown that they like "Bob's Burgers", so I think I'm leaning there.
PREDICTION: Kevin Kline-"Bob's Burgers"
PREFERENCE: Seth MacFarlane-"Family Guy"
I would say Kristen Schaal, because of the amount of work overall, but I'd rather she win for playing Louise Belcher.
WINNER: Seth MacFarlane-"Family Guy"
OUTSTANDING DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES
30 for 30-ESPN
Planet Earth II-BBC America
WINNER: "Planet Earth II"
OUTSTANDING INFORMATIONAL SERIES OR SPECIAL
Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown-CNN
Inside the Actors Studio-Bravo
Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath-A&E
StarTalk with Neil deGrasse Tyson-National Geographic
Wow, Gold Derby's got "Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath" as a heavy favorite, with perennial winner Anthony Bourdain a far second choice. with everyone else a distant third. I'm a little reluctant to make that kind of call. As much as I admire Remini's work, it's still Hollywood, so until I see it win something, I'm not exactly willing to bet that the industry's gonna make a firm anti-Scientology vote. I'll be happy if I see it, but, I gotta see it first. And even without that battle to climb, it's really hard to bet against Anthony Bourdain. You can legitimately argue that he's one of the best writers working on television and has been for the last fifteen years or so.
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE-"Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown"
WINNER: "Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath" - Well, so much for that "Don't bet against Anthony Bourdain strategy". I do love Leah Remini though.
OUTSTANDING DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SPECIAL
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week-The Touring Years-Hulu
A House Divided (Vice Special Report)-HBO
L.A. Burning: The Riots 25 Years Later-A&E
Hmm, tough category. I can see people underestimating "L.A. Burning..." I'm sure there's a lot of Emmy voters who probably have vivid memories of Riots, but I tend to agree with Gold Derby on this one. They have "13th" the favorite with "The Beatles..." being the second choice. And, there's need to honor "13th" and there's better produced television on The Beatles out there that they have honored in the past. I don't really see the need to rush on that one.
EXCEPTIONAL MERIT IN DOCUMENTARY FILMMAKING
Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds-HBO
LA 92-National Geographic
O.J.: Made in America-ESPN
Oklahoma City (American Experience)-PBS
The White Helmets-Netflix
"O.J. Made in America"'s nominated here. It's winning. Pretty straight forward really. Strange category though. Not sure how of why something's here and not in one of the other eight or nine documentary categories, but oh well....
PREDICTION/PREFERENCE: "O.J.: Made in America"
WINNER: "LA 92" -Wow! This might secretly be the biggest upset of the night. "O.J.: Made in America going down. I'm shocked.
Laurence Fishburne-"Year Million"-"Homo Sapien 2.0"-National Geographic
Ewan McGregor-"Wild Scotland"-Nat Geo WILD
Sam Neill-"Wild New Zealand"-Nat Geo WILD
Liev Schreiber-"Muhammad Ali: Only One"-HBO
Liev Schreiber-"UConn: The March to Madness"-Episode 1"-HBO
Meryl Streep-"Five Came Back"-"The Price of Victory"-Netflix
This category is never as predictable as I'd prefer it to be. Especially here, now that there's no obvious nominee who's famous mainly for their voiceover work. Meryl Streep is the favorite according to Gold Derby, which, makes sense to me. She's the only nominee from something that's a major nominee elsewhere. She's also the biggest name, and just as a general rule, vote for her when she's up for an Emmy. She's won two and only lost once, and that was because she ran into Alfre Woodard for "Miss Evers' Boys". It also doesn't help that Liev Schreiber's nominated twice, so he's splitting the vote. I think Laurence Fishburne is the most likely to play spoiler here, but who's even seen "Year Million"?
PREDICTION: Meryl Streep-"Five Came Back"
PREFERENCE: Liev Schreiber-"UConn: The March to Madness"
WINNER: Meryl Streep-"Five Came Back"
OUTSTANDING MAIN TITLE DESIGN
FEUD: Bette and Joan-FX Networks
I've seen, three of these shows, so far, but I have gone back to see each of the Main Title Sequences. The only one, I'm kinda confused by as to, how it got nominated is "Stranger Things". I like it, but from a technical aspects, it's basically an homage to other title sequences that were innovative at the time, but I don't think are that technically special now. I'm also kinda iffy on "The Crown"'s opening sequence, although I do like it, but to me this is a three-way race between "American Goda", "FEUD: Bette and Joan" and "Westworld", and it's a tough choice, 'cause all three of those are really fascinating and innovative. Gold Derby's giving a slight edge to "FEUD" over "Westworld", and I'm not so sure. I prefer "FEUD..." (Yeah, I know, I did say that I didn't think openings for miniseries should be in the category, but that's because I think there should be multiple categories for this, not just one) but I think "Westworld" has the slight advantage. It's got the right amount of effects mixed with actual footage, and it's matched up better to create a more haunting mood. I'm cheering for "FEUD..." but I'm predicting "Westworld".
PREFERENCE: "FEUD: Bette and Joan"
WINNER: "Stranger Things" - I get how some people talk about the credits being a throwback, but honestly, that does mean that it wasn't as difficult to create as the others. I don't get it winning, at all.
FEUD: Bette and Joan-Mac Quayle-FX Networks
Genius-Hans Zimmer and Lorne Balfe-National Geographic
The Good Fight-John David Buckley-CBS All Access
Stranger Things-Michael Stein and Kyle Dixon-Netflix
Victoria (Masterpiece)-Martin Phipps-PBS
God, what the hell, every theme song, except for "FEUD..." is this skull-dulling assault of classic scores. What happened to theme songs that had lyrics, or were just cute and happy. Not a single sitcom is nominated here, and it shows and feels like it. Just based on that, I'm tempted to pick "FEUD", 'cause it's slightly different enough. Most are predicting that it's between "Stranger Things" and "Westworld" and they're way ahead of the odds on Gold Derby. "Westworld"'s theme's okay, so is "Stranger Things", just based on reputation, Hans Zimmer feels like he's due for an upset, and that would make him a Tony away from the EGO. I actually thought "The Good Fight"'s theme was pretty good too, but until a CBS All Access show gets a win, I'm not betting on it.
PREDICTION and PREFERENCE: "Genius"
I'm going for the upset here.
WINNER: "Stranger Things"
OUTSTANDING MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A SERIES (ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE)
The Crown-"Hyde Park Corner"-Rupert Gregson-Williams-Netflix
House of Cards-"Chapter 63"-Jeff Beal-Netflix
Planet Earth II-"Islands"-Jacob Shea and Jasha Klebe-BBC America
A Series of Unfortunate Events-"A Bad Beginning"-James Newton Howard-Netflix
Taboo-"Episode 1"-Max Richter-FX Networks
Victoria (Masterpiece)-"Doll 123"-Martin Phipps, Ruth Barrett and Natalie Holt-PBS
I don't honestly know why I didn't list this category on my previous Emmy Nomination analysis, I think I thought I did, but.... (Shrugs) Anyway, eh, "The Crown" is listed as the heavy favorite, with "Planet Earth II" as a close second, documentary in a bunch of drama series does stand out. I think, "A Series of Unfortunate Events" probably the most likely one that could play spoiler, James Newton Howard is one of the top composer in town. He doesn't have an eight nominations, but he does have an Emmy for the theme song for "Gideon's Crossing", but I think I'm gonna go with the consensus here. Rupert Gregson-Williams is a big, well-known up-and-comer, and he seems like a more logical choice here.
PREDICTION: "The Crown"
WINNER: "House of Cards"- "Chapter 63"-Jeff Beal
OUTSTANDING MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL (ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE)
Fargo-"Aporia"-Jeff Russo-FX Networks
FEUD: Bette and Joan"-"Pilot"-Mac Quayle-FX Networks
Five Came Back-"The Price of Victory-Jeremy Turner-Netflix
O.J.: Made in America-"Part 3"-Gary Lionelli-ESPN
Suite Francaise-Rael Jones-Lifetime
The White Helmets-Patrick Jonsson-Netflix
(Shrugs) I don't have a preference, um, Gold Derby has "FEUD..." ahead, that seems reasonable, that's the only one also nominated in other music categories. Weird category in hindsight.
PREDICTION: "FEUD: Bette and Joan"
WINNER: "Fargo"-"Aporia"-Jeff Russo
OUTSTANDING ORIGINAL MUSIC AND LYRICS
"Letter to the Free"-13th-Music & Lyric: Common; Music: Robert Glasper and Karriem Riggins-Netflix
"We Tapped That Ass"-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend-Music/Lyric: Adam Schlesinger; Lyrics: Rachel Bloom and Jack Dolgen-CW
"Jing-A-Ling-A-Ling"-Duck the Halls: Mickey Mouse Christmas Special-Music & Lyric: Christopher Willis; Lyric: Darrick Bachman and Paul Rudish-Disney-Disney Channel
"The Ballad of Claus Jorstad (Devil Stool)"-Jimmy Kimmel Live-Music & Lyrics: Jonathan Kimmel and Gary Greenberg-ABC
"Last Christmas"-Saturday Night Live-Music: Eli Brueggermann; Lyric: Chancelor Johnathan Bennett, Kenan Thompson and Will Stephen-NBC
"Hell No"-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt-Music: Jeff Richmond; Lyrics: Tina Fey and Sam Means.
PREDICTION: "Letter to the Free"-"13th"
PREFERENCE-"We Tapped That Ass"-"Crazy Ex-Girlfriend"
WINNER: "Letter to the Free"-"13th"- Music & Lyric: Common; Music: Robert Glasper and Karriem Riggins
Alright everyone, that was the last category. Good luck in your Emmy pools. Hope my advice works if you take it. If you don't, then I hope you do better!