Thursday, January 10, 2013
OSCAR NOMINATION ANALYSIS! NO AFFLECK!? NO TARANTINO DIRECTING NOD?! NO BIGELOW!!!???? NO MAGGIE SMITH! AND JACKI WEAVER, ARE YOU F***ING KIDDING ME, SHE WASN'T EVEN ON MY LONGLIST! DAMMIT, NOW I'M NEVER GONNA WIN THAT TOASTER!
It's six a.m., and the live feed on my youtube, is a bunch of color as I'm digesting the new Oscar nominees, and it looks like, yes, very much like, yeee-esss.... that I got everything wrong on my predictions last night. Well, not exactly, everything, in fact, I'm pretty proud of some of my guesses, and very disappointed in others, and very confused, once again by the Best Song category. (I mean, their were 4 eligible for "Django Unchained", and they didn't nominate a single one of them, as easily 3 should've been!) Well, we'll go category-by-category, and see what I got right, see what I got wrong, and let's see where I was way the fuck off, at least until I catch that telephone booth in the sky, and go back in time and change this.
Oh, before I begin, we'll talk about first, the choices I first mentioned on this blog yesterday, but after I posted that, which only included, about 10 or 11 major categories, I participated in a friend's Oscar prediction contest, that included predicting everything, except the short films categories, so I'll be referring to some of my picks there, and we'll see, just how I screwed those up as well. (I should've known not to pick "John Carter" for VFX, but no, I'm a stupid idiot who-, AGH!) You'll see, and if you want confirmation on those picks, I'll refer to my actual sent in ballot, from yesterday, which was posted in a FB private message.
Let's start at the top,
1/2*Beasts of the Southern Wild
*Life of PI
*Silver Linings Playbook
*Zero Dark Thirty
The stars (*), are picks I got correct. Technically, I said 8 nominees would get in, and that "Les Miserables" and "Beasts of the Southern Wild" were 9 & 10, so I did have them here, just not exactly. I did mention that "Amour" might sneak in, so I did predict, how I'd get it wrong. (I guess that's something) The two that I missed were "The Master" and "Moonrise Kingdom", getting in. "Moonrise Kingdom" only got a writing nomination, which is unfortunate, it's better than that, but I did in hindsight, kinda think "The Master" was gonna disappoint, and it did only get three nominations, and all of them were in acting, and I only predicted one of them. My thought was that, despite the mixed reviews, that the movie's fans, would rank it one or two on their ballots, and because of the high ranking the votes it did get would have, that it would get into Best Picture, similar to "The Help" last year, turned out, the Academy liked "Amour". Michael Haneke did really well for his film, getting a bunch of nominations outside of Foreign language Film, including a rare Best Picture nomination, the first foreign language film to get one, since "Letters from Iwo Jima" in '06, and the first film from another country, and in a foreign language since, 2000, when "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon", was nominated. (Also, '06 was "Babel", which was shot in multiple languages, but it was also an American-produced film, despite the Mexican director)
*Ang Lee-"Life of Pi"
David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook
Behn Zeitlin-"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
At least, I know for a fact, that I am not the only one, scratching their head at the directing category. WTF! DGA, BAFTAS, Critics Choice, --- If you did not have Kathryn Bigelow getting nominated, you're a fucking liar, or you have no clue what "Zero Dark Thirty" is! No Ben Affleck, who again, made practically every list going into this for "Argo", and Tarantino, not nominated for "Django Unchained", honestly I'm shocked, and I don't think I've ever gotten this category so wrong. David O. Russell, second time in a row, he snuck up on me, I didn't think he was getting for his last film "The Fighter" and of course he did. (He shouldn't have been, but he was.) I mentioned Michael Haneke and Benh Zeitlin at the end, as possible spoilers, but this many spoilers in one categoriy, this category?! This could be the first year since '95, when a DGA winner, doesn't even get nominated for Best Director. (That was when inexplicably Ron Howard was not nominated for "Apollo 13".) At least everybody getting a mindfuck from this one today.
*Bradley Cooper-"Silver Linings Playbook"
*Hugh Jackman-"Les Miserables"
Joaquin Phoenix-"The Master"
I didn't have Joaquin Phoenix, but I did mention that he was a strong possibility. I thought John Hawkes was gonna get in; he's had a couple good years film-wise, and "The Sessions", a bit of a surprise that he was shut out, while his co-star Helen Hunt got in for Supporting Actress. He had been nominated in most of the Awards coming up to this, including a SAG nominee. Surprised, but not terribly so at this category, actually I did really well in this one, although it did go, pretty much as planned.
*Jessica Chastain-"Zero Dark Thirty"
*Jennifer Lawrence-"Silver Linings Playbook"
*Quvenzhane Wallis-"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
*Naomi Watts-"The Impossible"
I'm sure I'm not the only one, but I'm pretty proud that I got Quvenzhane Wallis correct here, at nine years old, she's the youngest person ever nominated. Emmanuelle Riva, on the other hand, at age 85, is the oldest ever nominated, and basically, until the nominees get announced, you really don't know what the Academy is thinking, but I did know a foreign language performance would get in here, most of the signs, to me, pointed to Marion Cotillard for "Rust and Bone", but I did say Riva had a decent shot. Again, not terrible, not as good as I'd like.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert DeNiro-"Silver Linings Playbook"
*Philip Seymour Hoffman-"The Master"
*Tommy Lee Jones-"Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz-"Django Unchained"
I wonder if Leonardo DiCaprio pissed off the Academy somehow, but on the same token, while I did pick DiCaprio over Waltz to get nominated, honestly I did think Waltz's performance was a little more difficult, so I shouldn't be too surprised. I thought waking up this morning that Samuel L. Jackson might get "Django..."'s Supporting Actor nod instead, but right movie wrong actor's not bad. I wasn't sold on DeNiro getting in, I had Javier Bardem in for "Skyfall" instead, although that might've been, me thinking, incorrectly that "Silver Linings Playbook" was weaker than it really was. Huh, everyone nominated in the category, already has at least one Oscar. I'm an Oscar trivia buff, but you've got me, on that one, I don't know if that's ever happened before.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams-"The Master"
*Anne Hathaway-"Les Miserables"
*Helen Hunt-"The Sessions
Jacki Weaver-"Silver Linings Playbook"
I really do go out of my way, to seriously consider every somewhat reasonable, obscure possibility when I'm making these decisions; I follow every Award no matter how insignificant or obscure, leading up to the Oscars, I think outside-the-box more than most people. As somebody pointed out yesterday, in my longlist, I had Channing Tatum for "21 Jump Street", written down as a possible Best Actor nominee 'cause I wanted to make sure that nothing was going catch me completely offguard. Yet, I didn't have Jacki Weaver on my longlist! This wasn't an unlikely possible nominee, this was a didn't-even-consider-it-a-possibility nominee. That's the kind that I hate most of all, and I'm in absolute shock at this nomination this morning, no nomination in a major category, came more out of nowhere, than that one. My mind is still having trouble digesting this one. My mind's still yelling at itself, for not writing in Amy Adams like he should've, and now Jacki Weaver, shows up out of nowhere. I had Ann Dowd for "Compliance" in, which might have been a possibility, until she started campaigning. I thought the other way for some reason, probably because Melissa Leo's campaigning didn't prevent her from winning a couple years ago, but often it has the reverse effect. So, say you don't want an Oscar like Joaquin Phoenix, they nominated you, try to campaign to win it, you don't get it, good to know. Also good to know, that I was right that "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel", wasn't Oscar-worthy, I just wish they told me, before I talked myself into voting for Maggie Smith. Dammit!
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Well, so much on my theory on not voting entirely on the obvious choices in the Animated Feature category. I thought "The Rabbi's Cat" would at least get in; I kinda figured "From Up on Poppy Hill", was a longshot. I should've voted for "Brave", I don't know what I was thinking there, voting against Pixar; I should be maimed for that, but in my defense, it hadn't been winning many Animated film awards. "The Pirates! Band of Misfits", I though about, but after it didn't even get a BAFTA nomination, (The film was made by Aardvark Animations in England, most known for Wallace & Gromit cartoons) I had disregarded it, 'cause I thought it would at least get nominated there, if it had a chance. Who knew?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
*Django Unchained-Quentin Tarantino
*Moonrise Kingdom-Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
*Zero Dark Thirty-Mark Boal
Well, I did have "Flight" on my long list, thank God, and it did a couple nomination in other Awards for the writings, including a WGA nomination, but I'm very surprised they didn't at least give P.T. Anderson a writing nomination for "The Master". For a guy who's made "Magnolia", and "There Will Be Blood", this seems to be the film that's garnered, more divisiveness than any of his films. Usually, they at least give him a writing nomination, very surprised he didn't get in. Got everything else right, glad I did figure "Amour" for this category, turns out, he got in a lot of different categories.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
*Beasts of the Southern Wild-Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
*Life of Pi-David McGee
*Silver Linings Playbook-David O. Russell
Hey, second year in a row, I got it all correct in this category! Wish it wasn't the only one, but time for my got-it-right dance! (I stand up and do my "Got-It-Right" dance, and sing the "Got-It-Right-Song"!) I got It Right, Got it Right, Got It, Got It Got It, Got it Right, Yeah!
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
*Amour (Austria)-Michael Haneke
*Kon-Tiki (Norway)-Joachim Ronning and Espen Sandberg
*No (Chile)-Pablo Larrain
*A Royal Affair (Denmark)-Nikolaj Arcel
War Witch (Canada)-Kim Nguyen
Second year in a row, I get screwed by Canada! I left off "Monsier Lazhar" last year, and it got in, I figure the Academy is finally gonna smarten up on Romania, and no, they didn't. Seriously guys, Romania, going through a golden age of cinema right now, look into it; some great films coming out of Bucharest, they should be honoring them. Oh well, 4/5 ain't bad. At least it isn't all Europe like it looked like it could be.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
5 Broken Cameras-Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
*How to Survive a Plague-TBA
*The Invisible War-TBA
*Searching for Sugar Man-TBA
You know, I'm counting this category as a win, I did a lot better than I thought I would. I'm disappointed "This is Not a Film" didn't get in, usually like to make a political statement, but I've heard good things about "5 Broken Cameras", so I'm okay with that. Tough category to predict this year, I thought I could've easily missed all my picks, so I'm happy.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Anna Karenina-Dario Marianelli
*Life of Pi-Mychael Danna
I had "Moonrise Kingdom" instead of "Anna Karenina", and that's a shame, because I think Alexandre Desplat's score was really critical to that film. I thought he'd get nominated twice, like they did with John Williams last year, and I got tired of writing "Anna Karenina" in all the technical categories, but still, "Moonrise..." should've gotten in here.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Before My Time-Chasing Ice-J. Ralph
*"Everybody Needs a Best Friend"-Ted-Music: Walter Murphy; Lyric: Seth MacFarland
"Pi's Lullaby"-Life of Pi-Music: Mychael Danna; Lyric: Bombay Jayashri
*"Skyfall"-Skyfall-Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
"Suddenly"-"Les Miserables"-Music: Claude-Michel Schonberg; Lyric: Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
Well, they didn't get this category right, but at least they're closer to right than last year. I thought the Academy wouldn't nominated "Suddenly" from "Les Mis...", despite no evidence that they've ever ignored a new song from a popular movie, based on a popular musical, but I voted instead for songs that I thought should be nominated in this category, like Mumford & Sons "Learn Me Right" from "Brave". However, the biggest fuck up in this category, not nominated at least one, of the four eligible songs from "Django Unchained", all of which were great, and I had "100 Black Coffins" by Rick Ross, and "Who Did That to You" by John Legend, from that film, on my prediction list. I thought about "Pi's Lullaby", though, and eh, I saw that song from "Chasing Ice" on the ballot, which is a National Geographic documentary about the melting of ice glaciers, that didn't even get a documentary nomination. So, I wasn't expecting that one, no. Could be the first song from a documentary to win since Melissa Etheridge won for "I Need to Wake Up" from "An Inconvenient Truth". Don't think that'll happen though. Glad Adele got in, and Seth MacFarland, 2nd time in three years, that the guy hosting the Oscars is also nominated in the same year.
*Anna Karenina-Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained-Robert Richardson
*Life of Pi--Claudio Miranda
I took a shot that Robert Yeomon would get in for "Moonrise Kingdom", instead of going for Robert Richardson, I don't know why I did that, I should know not to go against Richardson. I think I was trying to find more places for "Moonrise Kingdom" to get in. I think that cost me a bit.
*Life of Pi-Tim Squyres
Silver Linings Playbook-Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
*Zero Dark Thirty-Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg
How the hell did "Skyfall" not get an editing nomination?! That didn't even dawn on my as a serious possibility. I had "Django Unchained" and "Skyfall", 'cause usually there's at least one action movie in, because, as anybody who knows editing knows, action and chase sequences are the hardest films to edit, people like "Skyfall", I thought that was getting in. "Silver Linings Playbook", wasn't even a real thought in this category for me, but the ACE Awards, or the Eddies as they're called, haven't been announced yet, so I was flying a little blind here, an odd nomination to me, and a very odd, non-nomination here. I probably should've thought "Lincoln" would get in, Michael Kahn did, literally write the book on editing, but I thought they'd be more creative, but I guess that's a deserving nomination though.
*The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
*Life of Pi
I wrote down "Argo", because I couldn't figure out how "Skyfall" gets in. I don't know why I didn't think"Les Miserables" wouldn't get in here, that was just a brainfart of mine. No excuse for that one; I think I just like it when something that's set in something either close to modern times, or recent times anyway, gets in, because most people don't realize this, but it's much harder to make a movie that takes place, 20 years ago, than it is to make a movie that takes place 200 years ago, because, well, we have all the the sets for films that take place 200 years ago. We keep all that crap, use it later, and just think of how much has changed from twenty years ago, and how hard it is to find things from that time, to get a set right. Still, should've went with traditional period pieces though.
*Anna Karenina-Jacqueline Durran
*Les Miserables-Paco Delgado
*Mirror, Mirror-Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman-Colleen Atwood
I had "Django Unchained" in, instead of "Snow White and the Huntsman," mainly 'cause Colleen Atwood's costumes for that film were ugly. Honestly, I like her work normally, but frankly I through in "Mirror Mirror", as a protest to all the acclaim in the technical awards, particularly the costumes that "Snow White..." was getting, when I thought "Mirror Mirror", looked better, and had cooler costumes. I didn't think to nominate both, and btw, the person that beat me in that Oscar nomination prediction contest, he got both Snow White films. I thought I was being creative picking "Mirror Mirror", but I get, not as creative as I needed to be. (Sigh)
MAKEUP & HAIR
*The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
I had "Lincoln" and "Looper" in over "Hitchcock", because I thought, "Looper" was more interesting makeup, over "Hitchcock", which really is just the one character in making Anthony Hopkins look like Alfred Hitchcock", and I flipped a coin on "Lincoln" or "Les Mis...", coin was wrong.
BEST SOUND MIXING
*Life of Pi
Alright I missed "Argo" in both Sound categories,- alright, I took a shot here, and wrote down "Battleship" instead. Everyone I know who saw it, said it was really loud, so I thought, ah, Sound! Usually there's a loud pointless action movie or two, nominated in the sound category, like, whatever Michael Bay directs that year, for instance. So, I through in "Battleship", instead of "Argo". I had "Zero Dark Thirty", instead of "Lincoln", which, I'm very surprised by, "Lincoln" was a fairly quiet film, and normally war movies are more likely to get in. (Although I guess "Lincoln" is a war movie, but it's an atypical war movie)
BEST SOUND EDITING
*Life of Pi
*Zero Dark Thirty
I defer to my Best Sound Mixing thoughts, on why I didn't have "Argo" nominated here. (Bangs head with palm of his hand)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
*The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
*Life of PI
Marvel's The Avengers
Snow White and the Huntsman
My friend Meme Elaiho Achebo, who I often debate with on Annette's Debates on FB, will be amused to know, that despite my hatred over the film, I predicted that, her favorite film, "John Carter," would get nominated here. Should've trusted my own instinct. I also had "The Dark Knight Rises" over "The Avengers", which I guess is officially called "Marvel's The Avengers", remind me to change that on my lists and review on this blog. I didn't particularly care for "...The Avengers", thought "The Dark Knight..." would beat it out.
Well, according to Ben Zuk, who's contest is why, I wrote predictions for each of these categories, I got 75 out of 109 right, and I came in 2nd and won a Blu-Ray copy of "Lawrence of Arabia", so while I consider this disappointing, 'cause I really want to get this right one year, I guess I did okay. I'll take a good DVD like that. Really wanted that 1st place toaster though.
Well, there's your Oscar nominations this year. Take a rest, look them over, and then get ready for the only Award show that matters, the CRITIC'S CHOICE AWARDS, which are back on basic TV this year, granted it's CW, so I don't know if that counts, but it's on tonight, I'll be watching, you all should too, 'cause nothing's more important than what Critics say. They've fucking seen every film, they would know, or at least they should anyway, Rex Reed!
Posted by David Baruffi at 9:12 AM