Wednesday, January 11, 2012

OH, WHAT THE HELL. 2011 GOLDEN GLOBES PREDICTIONS!

To most of the uninformed outside of the entertainment world, it would seem that other than the Oscars, the next major Award show is the Golden Globes. Oddly enough, they couldn't be more incorrect. Almost nobody takes the Golden Globes seriously, and they shouldn't. However, that's the major perception, and Hollywood just goes along with that perception mostly. They shouldn't anyway, it's hardly that big enough deal to matter much anyway. Besides, strangely they're one of the most fun of Award shows. Always have been as well. They're given out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, (HFPA) which isn't as big a group as it sounds. I think by last count, this year's voting membership is 87? Oh, actually, you could just go to the groups website, where they have a list of the entire membership.

http://www.goldenglobes.org/hfpa_members/

(Come to think, you'd think these Awards would have more ties wouldn't ya?) Basically, they are, the journalists, who are beat reporters covering Hollywood and the entertainment industry, for newspapers and magazines in other countries. Yeah, not the biggest group out there. In fact, outside of the Golden Globes, the group is probably considered the lowest of the low in Hollywood. Even most of the regular press considers them the bottomfeeders of the press. Well, they are basically right. It's not there fault, but especially in this age of the internet, there's no particular need to cozy to reporters from overseas publications, when there's dozens of more local publications that are more prestigious in the industry, and many of those publications have an international reach. So, this is sort of an uphill battle for the HFPA. They're not the first on the scoop, not going to be anytime soon either. They're basically just reporting what other publications will also report earlier, they just report it to their newspaper in other countries. They're was a bigger need for them back in the '40s and '50s and, especially during times of war, where Hollywood and the movies was an escape for many countries. Like many groups, one year, they decided to start handing out Awards honoring those in Hollywood for their work in the year, and that included a small event that was held. It was more of a dinner actually, where they handed out scrolls. Now, at this point, the legend and the facts are a little blurry, but apparently, a couple of the stars were a little intoxicated and having fun and started to started to just, hang around and climb up on the stage. Basically, the stars took over the show, and started handing out Awards themselves, some were singing apparently. Basically, there was a bunch of famous celebs having a party. Since then, the Golden Globes, have been a fun Hollywood event with dinner and drinks, and they give out a few Awards as well. Occasionally, the Awards are ridden with scandal. It's only natural considering who's voting and how few of them there are. Last year, "The Tourist," got three suspicious nominations after many of the members were taken on a Las Vegas vacation by people at Sony, who produced the movie. Hardly the most suspicious Award they've given though. Eh, who cares anyway. The most trivial of the trivial, are the Golden Globes, we got a party, we got Ricky Gervais again this year. Time to have some fun, and guess like crazy. Let's start with TV categories.

BEST TV SERIES-DRAMA
Wow, four new names in this category, all of them on cable, four on pay cable. Actually, I've never seen any of them. Waiting for the DVDs. "Boardwalk Empire," won last year, that's something, maybe. Complete shot in the dark here. They have a tendency to vote the hot/new show in TV, so I'm going with the hottest and newest.
PREDICTION: "American Horror Story"

BEST ACTRESS-TV SERIES-DRAMA
I think Julianna Marguilies has won the last couple years, so she's a favorite of them, but it didn't get a best show nomination. Didn't even know Madeleine Stowe was on "Revenge". Never even heard of Callie Thorne, or the show, "Necessary Roughness." Golden Globes were the one group that's long recognized Claire Danes's talent. She even won for "My So-Called Life," that year, I think she's the favorite.
PREDICTION: Claire Danes-"Homeland"

BEST ACTOR-TV SERIES-DRAMA
Oddly, while he's swept the Emmys every eligible year, Bryan Cranston has never won a Golden Globe for "Breaking Bad." Odd that Michael C. Hall didn't get nominated, also. Buscemi won it last year. For me it's a toss-up between Kelsey Grammer and Damian Lewis. I'm not sure which show they like more. Guessing here.
PREDICTION: Kelsey Grammer-"Boss"

BEST TV SERIES-COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Haven't seen "Enlightened," or "Episodes," yet. No "The Office," no "30 Rock," this year, so they're way outside-the-box on the norm in this category. "Glee," has won two years in a row though, and that can't be overlooked. They love that show. Didn't get any other nominations though, and that's suspicious. Being the Foreign Press, I'm tempted to pick "Episodes." I think it's either them, "Glee," again, or "Modern Family".
PREDICTION: "Modern Family"

ACTRESS-TV SERIES-COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Laura Linney won last year for "The Big C," she's nominated again. Again, they like hot & new in TV, and there's two hot & new names there, Laura Dern for "Enlightened," and "Zooey Deschanel," for "New Girl", both of which also got Best Show nods, I think it's likely one of those two, no matter much they should pick Amy Poehler.
PREDICTION: Zooey-Deschanel-"New Girl"

ACTOR-TV SERIES-COMEDY OR MUSICAL
I'm not sure why the Globes loved "Hung," and "Californication," more than the Emmys, but they do, and past-winner David Duchovny and past nominee Thomas Jane are there again. I don't how they can pick Johnny Galecki for "The Big Bang Theory," and not pick Jim Parsons as well. That's odd. SAG did the same thing too, which I found stranger. (Shrug)
PREDICTION: Matt LeBlanc-"Episodes"

BEST MINISERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TV
Oh, this damn category. Ah, eenie, meanie, minie mo... Well, "Too Big to Fail," and "Cinema Verite," aren't winning, that's for sure. It's either "Downtown Abbey," which is the hot one, "The Hour," which is the BBC-America show, (Although "Downtown Abbey," is British too) or they could go "Mildred Pierce". Hmm. Toughy.
PREDICTION: "Downtown Abbey" (Masterpiece)

BEST ACTRESS, MINISERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TV
Uh, is they say any name other then Kate Winslet, it'll be the biggest shock of the night.
PREDICTION: Kate Winslet-"Mildred Pierce"

BEST ACTOR-MINISERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TV
Wow, this one's just plain old random. They like Bill Nighy a lot, but I don't know how many have seen "Page Eight". I don't think anybody's seen "The Hour," either, but can't count out BBC America programs at the Globes.
PREDICTION: Hugh Bonneville-"Downtown Abbey" (Masterpiece)

ACTRESS, SUPPORTING ROLE, SERIES, MINISERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TV
I don't understand why they push all the supporting roles together? They separate movies and TV into comedy and drama, but when they do the supporting roles, they shove them together? Are they two different skills, or aren't they? That's always annoyed me. Okay, now I have to pick one. My guess would be either Jessica Lange or Evan Rachel Wood. I think they lean towards mini-series and movies in the category, though.
PREDICTION: Evan Rachel Wood-"Mildred Pierce"

ACTOR, SUPPORTING ROLE, SERIES, MINISERIES, MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TV
Same problem here. They've liked Paul Giamatti, in the past, he could win. Hmm. Peter Dinklage won the Emmy this past year, he could pull off another here too. I don't know, I'm leaning towards Guy Pearce, but I'm less confident of any TV pick as I am this one. (And that's saying something, 'cause I have no confidence in any of these)
PREDICTION: Guy Pearce-"Mildred Pearce"

And now, let's try the movies.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG-MOTION PICTURE
This is the only Award show I've seen so far that didn't nominate a song from "The Muppets," in this category. Madonna's movie "W.E." got two music nomination, this and score, they given Globes to her before. Actually, it's a decent mix of candidates for the category. Elton John, Madonna, Mary J. Blige, Chris Cornell got nominated for a song from a movie called "Machine Gun Preacher," which I don't even remember, and apparently Gleen Close is a lyricist, she got nominated. Oh God, I have no clue who to pick.
PREDICTION: "Hello, Hello,"-Elton John and Bernie Taupin-"Gnomeo & Juliet"

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross won last year for "The Social Network", have to lean towards them going somewhere else this year. I'm pretty sure John Williams and Howard Shore have won before. Yep.  That leaves "W.E." and "The Artist," I gotta pick the silent one there. Sorry, Madonna, forgive me.
PREDICTION: "The Artist"-Ludovic Bource

BEST SCREENPLAY
Another tough one. They've given the Award to Alexander Payne, for his last two films "About Schmidt," and "Sideways". (Curiously, he didn't get an Oscar nomination for "About Schmidt") They've also liked George Clooney, and "The Ides of March," way more than most Award shows. Aaron Sorkin won last year for "The Social Network". I don't see Michel Hazanavicius winning in this category. Wow, really tough call here.
PREDICTION: Woody Allen-"Midnight in Paris"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Again, I don't know why they combine Comedy and Drama into the supporting category. I guess the surprise in the category is Viggo Mortenson for "A Dangerous Method", but they've always thrown in Cronenberg when others didn't. Kenneth Branagh, might be a surprise win here, but I'm pretty sure it's between Albert Brooks and Christopher Plummer.
PREDICTION: Albert Brooks-"Drive"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Haven't seen any of these films, although I plan to say that for a lot of these categories. Let's see. Do they like "The Help," that much? Two nominees from that film, something tells me to think Berenice Bejo though. Chastain, had a great year overall, they might give her for a great year overall. I think it's Octavia Spencer or Berenice Bejo though.
PREDICTION: Berenice Bejo-"The Artist"

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Only with the Golden Globes can Angelina Jolie get a nomination for Best Foreign Language Film. (Hey, Clint Eastwood won this Award a few years ago) There's some good directors here actually, the Dardenne Brother's "The Kid and the Bike," Pedro Almodovar's "The Skin I Live In," also. "A Separation," has been winning everything though. I think it might sneak into a few extra categories like screenplay at the Oscars.
PREDICTION: "A Separation" (IRAN)

ANIMATED FILM
Basically, the same five as most of the others. "Puss in Boots," probably is an anomonly nominee here, but other than that... It's basically between "The Adventures of Tintin," and "Rango," and any other name called would be an upset. Which one, I don't know. How do the HFPA think. If they the better movie, it'll be "Rango," if they want the bigger name to win, it'll be "Tintin".
PREDICTION: "The Adventures of Tintin"

BEST ACTOR-MOTION PICTURE-MUSICAL OR COMEDY
This I what I like about the Golden Globes, they really do honor comedy. I know Judd Apatow, is pushing the Oscars to adopt a comedy category, I don't think they should, but at least the Globes do, that is nice. It's unlikely to see Brendan Gleeson, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Owen Wilson, and Ryan Gosling getting an Oscar nod for their films here, and they should be recognized for their work.
PREDICTION: Jean Dujardin-"The Artist"

BEST ACTRESS-MOTION PICTURE-MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Little surprised "Carnage," was so beloved by the Globes. Two nominees for that film in the category, Foster and Winslet. Little surprized Kristen Wiig got into this category, and that Melissa McCarthy didn't get into Best Supporting Actress. If there's an upset though, it'll be Charlize Theron for "Young Adult." That film and her performance are getting a last-second Oscar push. They've given her the Award before when she was the only one nominated for the film, so it's a possibility.
PREDICTION: Michelle Williams-"My Week with Marilyn"

MOTION PICTURE-COMEDY OR MUSICAL
They almost always nominate a musical when one is eligible, no matter the reviews, and "The Artist"'s review and other Awards are making it look like a sure thing. Can't rule out "Midnight in Paris," though. "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," won the category a couple years ago, and I think "Midnight..." is more popular than that one. Maybe, "Bridesmaids," but I don't see it. Either "Midnight in Paris," or "The Artist"
PREDICTION: "The Artist"

BEST ACTOR-MOTION PICTURE-DRAMA
Boy, they really liked "The Ides of March." Ryan Gosling's nomination seems the obvious odd one here. Don't see DiCaprio winning this time. Don't really see Fassbender winning, although, I can't be completely sure about that one. If they want to be unpredictable, that might be the surprise win of the night, but I think it's either Pitt or Clooney. All right, the penny says, heads, I'm going with heads.
PREDICTION: George Clooney-"The Descendants"

BEST ACTRESS-MOTION PICTURE-DRAMA
Well, Rooney Mara is a nice surprise, but the rest of the category is an as predicted. Meryl Streep and Viola Davis have been winning most of the Awards until now. I'm not as sold that this is a Meryl Streep year as others, especially since "The Iron Lady," isn't getting the greatest reviews. Although, I can the same for Viola Davis and "The Help," too. Tough to count out Streep though, even if it looks like "The Help," is a favorite.
PREDICTION: Meryl Streep-"The Iron Lady"

BEST DIRECTOR
It's basically clear that the four that will get nominated everywhere are Alexander Payne, Michael Hazanavicius, Martin Scorsese and Woody Allen. The fifth one's up-for-grabs, and they surprised everybody and gave it to George Clooney for "The Ides of March". I don't see him getting it this year. I think it's between Alexander Payne and Michel Hazanavicius. It's hard to tell how much they like "Hugo," though, wouldn't be shock by Scorsese winning here.
PREDICTION: Michel Hazanavicius-"The Artist"

BEST PICTURE-DRAMA
6 nominees in the category this year, somewhat surprisingly. They seemed to throw in "War Horse," despite its only other nomination being for Best Score. With no directing nomination, I think that's a longshot at best. There's a legitimate shot here they can surprise us all and pick "Hugo", but I think it's really between "The Help," "The Descendants", and "The Ides of March". "The Help," no directing nomination, no writing nomination, it would be odd if it won here. It would be odd if "The Ides of March," won too. That's gotten some recognition from other Awards, but not a lot, and it hasn't won flatout a Best Film award yet. Until somebody beats it, go with the odds-on favorite.
PREDICTION: "The Descendants"

Well, get some booze ready for Sunday night. I know Ricky Gervais will be drinking, so will everyone else, no reason we shouldn't either. Let's enjoy the most asinine and useless of Awards show-, oh "The People's Choice Awards, are on tonight." Okay, the 2nd most asinine and useless of Awards show, "The Golden Globes"! And if I get 50% right, that'll be good. Why I am trying to build myself up for them, despite my contention? Well, 'cause without cable, this is the only Award show I see until the Oscars. Hey, FOX, CW, PBS even! Critics Choice Awards, and SAG Awards are still on cable? Why? Jump on them sometime, you can compete, with the Globes if you wanted to. Well, until then, the Globes it'll be.

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