MY ANNUAL OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANALYSES! (Yeah, I know I'm a week late, been busy, been digesting.

Since I took so long to put out my Oscar nomination predictions, I decided to take my time this time around before I dove into analyzing the nominees themselves. That, and I've just been busy working on other things, but yeah, it's time for me to get a closer look at what got in, and get some early thoughts in there about the nominees, even if those early thoughts are later then everyone else. If there's ever a year to do that, it's this year. 2020 is going down as one of the worst and strangest years ever, in general and probably the most transformative in almost all aspects of the performing arts world, ever. Broadway as of right now, music, well, is generally considered a high point since it's led to some creativity in both the artists and the distribution of it, and movies,- well, those debates a couple years ago about whether a movie streaming on Netflix should be eligible for Oscars sound particularly obtuse today. To my ear, they sound the way people in the '90s thought Bill Clinton's affair with Monica Lewinsky was an impeachable Presidential offense after 9/11 happened, like boy, was that a whole bunch of nothing that didn't matter, and I was on the side that said, "No, they shouldn't!" but who gives a damn now. I don't know which of these temporary changes to the standard Academy's eligibility procedure will be permanent and which won't but the precedent's been set, and this year created a strange and yet, interesting collection of nominees that managed to be, from what I can tell so far, mostly good, and just somehow managed to show up and squeak into eligibility contention, and good for them. Whether it be studio tentpole blockbuster having to be pushed onto some newfangle it streaming service or some unusual avant-garde artists who manage to work their way through conniving and creative means to manage to get a film made this and distributed this year, this year's group of films is one of the most intriguing in years. Let's run down what the Academy decided to honor and see if my Oscar nomination predictions are any better then my NCAA bracket this year. (SPOILER: Actually, my bracket's doing fairly good so far this year, so probably not.)  

(NOTE: Star denotes correct prediction)

BEST PICTURE

1/2*The Father-Pro.: David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Phillippe Carcassone

*Judas and the Black Messiah-Pro: Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler

Mank-Cean Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski

*Minari-Pro.: Christina Oh

*Nomadland-Pro.: Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Jarvey and Chloe Zhao

*Promising Young Woman-Pro.: Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara

Sound of Metal-Pro.: Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche

*The Trial of the Chicago 7-Marc Platt and Stuart Besser

In my defense on "Sound of Metal", I would've had it eleventh in predictions. I'm actually shocked how that one Amazon film caught on late; I was sure that "One Night in Miami" was gonna be the one that touched audiences more. "Mank" ended with the most nominations, ten total, including Best Picture and Director, which is kinda interesting, since no other film got more then six nominations, and yet, I don't think anyone's really predicting it to win. Hell, I predicted it to get snubbed, although granted, I think I did that with "Green Book" as well, but still, that only got like six nominations, which is about what the rest of the frontrunners got this year. Right now, to me, "Nomadland" is the favorite, with "Minari" and "The Trial of the Chicago 7" playing potential spoilers, with perhaps "Judas and the Black Messiah coming up late. Personally, I find it so fascinating that something as un-Hollywood and so neorealist as "Nomadland" is such a heavy favorite right now. I guess after "Parasite" breaking the foreign film barrier, anything's possible, but this still seems odd and bizarre to me.

DIRECTING

*Lee Isaac Chung-"Minari"

*Emerald Fennell-"Promising Young Woman"

David Fincher-"Mank"

Thomas Vinterberg-"Another Round"

*Chloe Zhao-"Nomadland"

Again, I fell into the "One Night in Miami" wrong path for this category, as apparently the Academy has only room for two women directors this year, which, is technically an improvement. Personally, I think I could've filled this category with female directors this year, but this is still a good batch. Thomas Vinterberg enters the weird category of being one of the few directors since the Academy expanded it's Best Picture category beyond five films to get a Best Director nomination but for a film that's not nominated for Best Picture, it's him Pawel Pawlikowska for "Cold War" and Bennett Miller for "Foxcatcher" that have so far managed to pull that off. (Perhaps we should disregard the myth that the Best Directing nominees are generally the go-to five frontrunners for Picture from now on honestly; I think that idea feels less accurate every year). I should really start remembed that the Director's Branch doesn't reall care that much about any other Academy trends as they will generally go with whoever the hell they feel like over such names as Regina King or Aaron Sorkin among others, but eh, whatchagonnado? Fincher getting in, I probably should've predicted since Fincher's directing is probably the best thing about that film, which another interesting oddity, along with "Another Round", one of two films up for Best Director that didn't get a Writing nomination. My instinct told me that was an anomoly, but it's happened as recently as 2017 with "Dunkirk" and "Phantom Thread" getting Directing but not writing, and in 2015 with "Mad Max: Fury Road" and "The Revenant". Anyway, this is Chloe Zhao's to lose at the moment and I don't really see a scenario where anyone else could win offhand.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

*Riz Ahmed-"Sound of Metal"

*Chadwick Boseman-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

*Anthony Hopkins-"The Father"

Gary Oldman-"Mank"

*Steven Yeun-"Minari"

I really should've trusted Gold Derby on these; they had the acting categories nailed this year, with only one nominee getting in across all four categories that wasn't in their Top 5 predictions, and we'll get to that one. I took a shot on Delroy Lindo getting in over Gary Oldman (Man, the Academy did not like "Da 5 Bloods" as much as I thought they would; I'm not sure exactly what happened there, SAG seemed to like them... [Shrugs]) Anyway, no issue with the nominees themselves; I suspect Boseman's the heavy sentimental favorite, with Hopkins and Oldman already being previously awarded. The Academy isn't particularly known historically for posthumous awards, they only have two in the acting categories historically, eh, Heath Ledger for "The Dark Knight" and Peter Finch for "Network" both in the Supporting Actor category, but I suspect the sentiment's strong enough for Boseman here with perhaps Ahmed or Yeun playing potential spoilers. I could also see them giving it to Hopkins if they really loved "The Father", which, eh, it got into Best Picture, so maybe they do, but I think they want to honor Boseman; although that makes his "Da 5 Bloods" snub a bit more confounding if that's the case.... (Also, how exactly did "Ma Rainey..." miss Best Picture too? Was there just a one black movie limit or something and "Judas..." got it over "...Bloods", "Ma Rainey..." and "One Night in Miami"? I really hope that's not what happened....)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE 

*Viola Davis-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

*Andra Day-"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

*Vanessa Kirby-"Pieces of a Woman"

*Frances McDormand-"Nomadland"

*Carey Mulligan-"Promising Young Woman"

Well, this category I did well in, but this is an interesting race. We got two first timers in Day and Kirby, both are their film's only nominations though. It's not impossible to win this category as your film's only nomination, but it's rare; only twice this century with Julianne Moore for "Still Alice," who was way overdue to win, and Charlize Theron with "Monster" which was just one of those performances that blew everybody's mind. The blow-your-mind performance this year seems to be Carey Mulligan's but I'm not entirely sure that means she's gonna win. Viola Davis and especially Frances McDormand I think can play spoilers. McDormand in particular; they gave her a 2nd Oscar just a couple years ago for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", and it's a little unusual to think she could win a third Best Actress Oscar; I mean, even Meryl and Ingrid have one Oscar in Supporting, and I think only Katharine Hepburn has four in this category, but McDormand could win her third here. She's always been one of my favorite actresses, but that would be stunning. She's definitely the second choice being in basically every scene in the Best Picture frontrunner, and probably the choice for those who might find "Promising Young Woman" a little much to take in....

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

*Sacha Baron Cohen-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

*Daniel Kaluuya-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

*Leslie Odom, Jr.-"One Night in Miami..."

*Paul Raci-"Sound of Metal"

LaKeith Stanfield-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

Okay, this is where the Academy just went completely off the rails here. Now, I did predict "Judas and the Black Messiah" overperforming here, but getting two nominations in Supporting Actor came so far out of nowhere that Gold Derby, literally did not have LaKeith Stanfield listed among their choices. In fact, going back to my previous predictions blog, I didn't list him on my longlist of potential nominees. I did list him though, as a potential for Best Actor, not for Supporting Actor. See, he campaigned for Lead Actor for the film, while his co-star Kaluuya, campaigned for Supporting Actor, however the Academy rules don't have any restrictions on where an actor can be nominated. So if a performance gets nominations in both Lead and Supporting, then whichever category the performance gets the most nominations in, that's the category the performance goes into automatically. So, apparently, Academy voters felt Lakeith Stanfield was a Supporting Actor for the film, "Judas and the Black Messiah", which is weird since, apparently, nobody else thought that! Granted, the only other nomination that LaKeith Stanfield got for this movie, was from the Black Reel Awards, but they had him listed in Lead. Arguably both these nominations are category fraud, hell, they're the title characters in the movie, and every description I can find of the film list them as the main two characters, now arguably one of them can be Supporting, but both?! Now, this isn't the first time this has happened, far from it actually; once upon a time this was somewhat common, but the last time it's happened was with Kate Winslet in "The Reader" back in '08, but even that one has an asterisk that the Academy wasn't the only ones who put her in Lead Actress; BAFTA had done it earlier; plus, she was trying to position herself in Supporting for "The Reader" because she was simultaneously campaigning in Lead for another film that year, "Revolutionary Road". With LaKeith Stanfield, the Academy just ignored his claim for Lead and put him in Supporting Actor. I-eh, I really don't know what to make of this. This is one where I wish we could pull the Actors Branch on and see what happened here, 'cause this is just bizarre and dare I say, unexplainable by any modern Oscar logic standards. This feels like a weird category fraud screwup from like, the late '80s or something. Anyway, as to the award, eh, I think it's clearly between Kaluuya and Odom, with the edge to Kaluuya right now, although it's been awhile since somebody won an Oscar in this category by beating their own castmate. It's been..., wow, 1980, when Timothy Hutton won for "Ordinary People" over Judd Hirsch. 

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

*Maria Bakalova-"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit of Once Glorious Nation of Kazahkstan"

*Glenn Close-"Hillbilly Elegy"

*Olivia Colman-"The Father"

Amanda Seyfried-"Mank"

*Yuh-Jung YOUN-"Minari"

Congratulations to Glenn Close, she becomes the third person after Amy Irving for "Yentl" and James Coco for "Only When I Laugh" to receive an Oscar nomination and a Razzie nomination for the same performance. I don't normally cover the Razzies because, well, not that they should have legitimacy being a bad movie awards show, but they really don't have much legitimacy. I haven't seen the movie, but I'm gonna go out on a limb that Glenn Close isn't the Worst at anything and that they were just being pissy to be pissy. She could win by the way, it's her eighth nomination and that would tie her with Peter O'Toole for the most nominations without a win. Actually, this is the most difficult of the acting categories to call. The awards have been splitting everywhere, and the only actress of the nominees that got a Critics Choice, a SAG and a BAFTA nomination was, strangely enough, Maria Bakalova. Honestly, to me, she's the obvious favorite to win right now but nobody wants to admit such an unbelievable comedic performance would be the favorite; the myth is that there hasn't been a comedic performance to win this role since Marisa Tomei for "My Cousin Vinny", which I don't think is true, Dianne Wiest, Mira Sorvino and Penelope Cruz all won for Woody Allen comedes and in comedic performances, and I think you could argue Octavia Spencer if you want to call "The Help" a comedy (I wouldn't, but I wouldn't call it much of anything), but that said this is up for grabs. It could be Close, it could be Yuh-Jung YOUN, this could be the best place for "Minari" to win something,... It's also nice to see Amanda Seyfried finally honored for her work; I've been a fan of hers since "Big Love", but I think she's the least likely of the group to win this.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit the Once Glorious Nation of Kazahkstan-Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony HInes & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad

*The Father-Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

*Nomadland-Chloe Zhao

*One Night in Miami...-Kemp Powers

*The White Tiger-Ramin Bahrani

I consider this a win for getting four out of five right as "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" got snubbed most everywhere. It's also nice to see Ramin Bahrani finally get some recognition. "Borat..." gets into writing for both it's original film and it's sequel, that's a pretty rare feat.  "Lord of the Rings" got in for two of their films, the first two "The Godfather" films did it and the last two of the "Before Trilogy" have pulled this off before. It also won this category recently at the WGAs, which is a bit mindblowing. I hope they don't all show up to collect their Oscars though, 'cause 'yeesh, that's a long speech. This is why Mike Leigh takes full credit for his improvised scripts. 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

*Judas and the Black Messiah-Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas

*Minari-Lee Isaac Chung

*Promising Young Woman-Emerald Fennell

*Sound of Metal-Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance

*The Trial of the Chicago 7-Aaron Sorkin

Well, called this one. "Promising Young Woman" just won the WGA Award here, and all five nominees in the category are Best Picture nominees, which is the first time that's ever happened in the category. That's unusual. "Promising Young Woman" is the current favorite having won WGA, although "Minari" wasn't eligible, so that can play spoiler. 

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

*Onward-Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae

Over the Moon-Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou

*A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon-Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley

*Soul-Pete Doctor and Dana Murray

*Wolfwalkers-Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stephan Roelants

I took a shot on "The Willoughbys" being a Netflix entrant over "Over the Moon", but yeah, other then that, nothing unexpected here for me, although I suspect most underestimated "Shaun the Sheep..." again; I'm not sure why, it's Aardman Animation, we know the Academy loves them. (Shrugs) Anyway, eh, unless something odds happens, "Soul" seems the heavy favorite.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Collective-Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana

Crip Camp-Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder

The Mole Agent-Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibanez

*My Octopus Teacher-Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster

Time-Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

Wow did I screw this category up. "Collective" and "The Mole Agent" were both eligible for Best Foreign Language International Feature; I gotta stop thinking that's not a foreshadower, 'cause apparently that is now. (I also hadn't seen "Collective" until after my predictions, yeah, they probably would've changed had I seen that.) Anyway, I don't really know what the favorite is here; the only one I'm fairly certain isn't in the running is "The Mole Agent" since that missed the International Feature nominations. 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

*Another Round (Denmark)

Better Days (Hong Kong)

Collective (Romania)

The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)

*Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Honestly, it's a bit surreal that the first Romanian film to get nominated in this category is a documentary. All the great Romanian New Wave films they haven't nominated over the years, many of which didn't even make the shortlists and this, admittedly great documentary gets in finally? Feels wrong. Tunisia getting it's first ever nomination is interesting although. I thought about putting that in there, but it just hadn't shown up too many other places. This category is a lot harder to predict since they expanded the shortlist. I expect "Another Round" to win giving Denmark their 4th Oscar and the first for any of the Dogme 95 directors. 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Judas and the Black Messiah-Sean Bobbitt

*Mank-Eric Messerschmidt

*News of the World-Dariusz Wolski

*Nomadland-Joshua James Richards

*The Trial of the Chicago 7-Phedon Papamichael

"Judas..." really overperforming, taking out "Tenet" most likely in this category, which dramatically underperformed here. I don't know if there's an obvious favorite here this time around so far; I would guess "Nomadland" as the early favorite, but I can make an argument for all of these nominees right now.

COSTUME DESIGN

*Emma-Alexandra Byrne

*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-Ann Roth

*Mank-Trish Summerville

Mulan-Bina Daigeler

Pinocchio-Massimo Cantini Parrini

Interesting list here, "Mulan" and "Pinocchio" round up the surprise Disney group of nominees for the category; I didn't even know they made a live-action "Pinocchio" this year. I'm kidding of course, this is another Italian retelling. It's kinda weird for me to think about, being of Italian descent myself, but that really is kinda our one big fairy tale that we've put out to the world; I really don't know what that says about us to be honest. Anyway, um, I'm not sure about this one yet, although I think "Emma" is in the soft lead at the moment; I'm gonna wait to see what the Guilds and BAFTA do.

FILM EDITING

The Father-Yorgos Lamprinos

*Nomadland-Chloe Zhao

*Promising Young Woman-Frederic Thoraval

*Sound of Metal-Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

*The Trial of the Chicago 7-Alan Baumgarten

This was one of the few categories I had "Mank" predicted in where it didn't get nominated. (Which is weird, 'cause I thought the editing kinda held that film together.) I didn't get going with "The Father" instead, but once I thought about it, it made sense to me, there's a lot of subtle tricky editing there. Usually I think of editing awards first with action scenes, particularly chase sequence but there's not an obvious action film here though. I kinda don't suspect "Nomadland" here, but other then that, I'll pay attention to what the Eddie Awards do here. "Sound of Metal" makes the most sense right now since it's so music and sound based, but if the Academy thinks that's more essential for the Sound category, which I tend to agree with, then "The Trial of the Chicago 7" and "Promising Young Metal" seem like the second choices.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

*Emma-Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze

*Hillbilly Elegy-Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney

*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson

Mank-Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff

Pinocchio-Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

I knew I probably should've put "Pinocchio" in there after seeing the trailer, but I couldn't find the place for it. I didn't think they would take out "Birds of Prey..." though, that seemed like a shoe-in. Then again, this the Makeup category and history shows, they just do not give a fuck. Hell, now I'm wondering if we're underestimating "Pinocchio" in winning this thing. It seems like the most work. 

ORIGINAL SCORE

Da 5 Bloods-Terence Blanchard

*Mank-Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

*Minari-Emile Mosseri

*News of the World-James Newton Howard

*Soul-Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

Well, it's nice to see "Da 5 Bloods" got something. Nothing particularly surprising here, I suspect "Soul" is pretty obviously the winner here, but I can see this being where they might go with "Minari" as a spoiler. I'm trying to figure out where they'll win something, I think either here, Supporting Actress or maybe Writing? I've seen some say they can win Picture in the ranked voting system, I can see that honestly, but I have to see it be able to win something below-the-line and they're all in close tight races the ones they're in.

ORIGINAL SONG

*"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga-Music & Lyrics: Savan Kotecha, Fat Maax Gsus and Rickard Goransson

"Fight for You"-Judas and the Black Messiah-Music: H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric: H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas

*"Io Si (Seen)"-The Life Ahead-Music: Diane Warren; Lyric: Diane Warren and Laura Pausini

*"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami...-Music and Lyric: Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

"Hear My Voice"-The Trial of the Chicago 7-Music: Daniel Pemberton; Lyric: Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

Three out of five ain't bad here for me. Honestly, when I listened to the short list, I thought most of the songs were, eh, okay. There would been a couple I would've been like, "Oh, really, that one?" but nothing I would've been like, "Wait, that got friggin' nominated, why!? How!?!" either, so, technically an improvement, overall. For those counting, Diane Warren is on, OMG, 12TH NOMINATION!! without a win, yet! Damn! I forgot she was nominated last year too! And the year before! Shit, she's approaching Randy Newman's infamous 0 for 15 streak before he finally. She has a shot here, "Io Si (Seen)" is one fo the better songs here, although I think "Speak Now" is the heavy favorite. It's the best time to honor both "One Night in Miami..." and a chance to honor Leslie Odom, Jr. who is the likely second choice in Supporting Actor. The other spoiler could be "Husavik" which won the SCL Award, which is kinda the closest thing to a Music Composers Guild out there. Would be kinda funny if that happened. Still though, man, how does Diane Warren keep losing this; she should've won at least one by now. Like, "Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now", that's one of the great songs of the '80s, what did that lose too. (Google search) Oh, "(I've Had) the Time of My Life" and Bob Seger's "Shakedown" was nominated too that year.... (Long pause) Yeah, she still should've won that. She should've also won for that Lady Gaga song too. And that Aerosmith song, even if it was from goddamn "Armageddon". She's been nominated for six of the last seven years too, Jees!!!

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Father-Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone

*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara and Diana Stoughton

*Mank-Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale

*News of the World: Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan

*Tenet-Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

Again, with "The Father" which I had underestimated, but the more I thought about it, again, this does make sense, although I'm still shocked that it beat out "The Trial of the Chicago 7" of all things. Also, I guess this is where "Tenet" shows up here. I suspect "Tenet", despite all the Christopher Nolan fanboys that can't believe anybody out there woouldn't be licking his metaphorical ass 24/7, is kinda this year's "Passengers" with the Academy. Like, they know the technical stuff is good, but... well, I gotta see the movie for myself to be sure, but it's telling how little this has shown up. (Also, I apparently am an enemy of some of them, 'cause I think "Interstellar" was just his dumb version of "A Wrinkle in Time" [The book, I haven't seen the new movie version yet; don't worry I will eventually... but no, I never cared for the book to begin so,... eh, we'll see....]) Anyway, this is probably where "Mank" is the heavy favorite and despite me not loving the film, I kinda have to agree on this one, the Production Design is amazing, which is something I'm surprised more David Fincher movies don't get more acclaim over; he's always been insisting on having some amazing production design. 

SOUND

*Greyhound-Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman

Mank-Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Dre Kunin

*News of the World-Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett

*Soul-Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker

*Sound of Metal-Nicholas Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes and Philip Bladh

I am so, giving myself extra bonus points for calling "Greyhound" in this category. The one I missed was "Tenet", and, honestly I'm not terribly sure why "Mank" got in, unless they just wanted to give Ren Klyce another nomination; he's up to nine now including these two, but he's yet to win. I think "Soul" could play spoiler here, but this seems the most likely spot for "Sound of Metal" to win something, and with it getting into Best Picture, it almost seems like a shoe-in for them at the moment. Also, I hate that they shoved the two sound categories together; I know nobody knows the exact difference, even I get them confused sometimes, but they are two different skills....

VISUAL EFFECTS

Love and Monsters-Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox

*The Midnight Sky-Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins

*Mulan-Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram

The One and Only Ivan-Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez

*Tenet-Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

Dammit, I knew I should've put "The One and Only Ivan" in there; I just played it safe. Boy , the Oscars did not like the superhero movies this year. Anyway, I think this is where "Tenet" will finally win something, that and "Mulan" are probably the closest to seeming like Best Picture nominees in the categories, which is usually the best sign. 

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

*Burrow-Madeline Sharfian and Michael Capbarat

Genius Loci-Adrien Merigeau and Amaury Ovise

*If Anything Happens I Love You-Will McCormack and Michael Govier

Opera-Erick Oh

Yes-People-Gisli Darri Halldorsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

Well, two of the ones I saw got nominated. I had a suspicion about the other three, but still I'm surprised that "The Snail and the Whale" with all the big people behind that one got left out. Eh, I suspect "If Anything Happens I Love You" is a slight favorite, but god, that's a depressing short. 

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

Feeling Through-Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski

*The Letter Room-Elvira Lind and Sofia Sandervan

*The Present-Farah Nabulsi and Ossama Bawardi

*Two Distant Strangers-Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe

White Eye-Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

I knew it was a bad idea to go with the top 5 from Gold Derby. Anyway, I did see "Feeling Through" which, I'm kinda surprised got in, but I get it. 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Colette-Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard

A Concerto is a Conversation-Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

*Do Not Split-Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook

Hunger Ward-Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheueman

*A Love Song for Latasha-Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

Jesus! I saw all these and I got this category way off! Like, I didn't like "Colette" at all, but I guess it's the Holocaust quota. (Sigh) And I guess "A Concerto is a Conversation" got in for being the most delightful one, although I would've rather seen "The Speed Cubers". "Hunger Ward" is just depressing but fine. I guess this isn't a bad list, but I found it disappointing. That said, I think "A Love Song for Latasha" is the favorite at the moment; that's probably the most poignant one for the modern time, but I could see some spoilers here, most notably, "Do Not Split" and "Hunger Ward". 

Alright, now that that's finally done, time to copy and paste, so that I can prepare for my predictions in a few weeks. As to these Oscars, well, it's, it's gonna be interesting to say the least. Who knows what the show's gonna actually be. People are gonna be trying to analyze these Oscars for years, because of how unusual and the situation is, and how the movies that did come out came at odd angles and barely got released. I know, in the future, streaming's gonna become more prominent and the typical movie theaters are gonna slowly die out except for the uber-tentpole blockbusters and will cost twice the price they do now, and whoever survives the streaming wars will inevitably own Hollywood, but this Oscars makes no sense, now. These are Oscars that we're gonna look at five years from now and see if this was just a weird anomaly year or if they become a a constant new trend. As for now, I think it would be best to hold back on full analyses of what these Oscars say or mean about the industry or the Academy until much, much later.

MY ANNUAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS! 2020 EDITION!

Well, we're well on our way to the most unusual Oscars of all-time, hopefully, and a particularly strange but eclectic group of potential nominees. Honestly, there's a decent debate on whether to even have an Oscars this year. Hell, they all the debates from past years about whether streaming movies count as movies seem particularly ridiculous now. Frankly, these are an Oscars that I also think are harder to predict then ever before, and I've actually seen a good deal of these movies ahead of time, an exceptional rarity for me. Still though, this feels like the Oscars could be going shockingly rogue this year. I'm expecting some unexpectedness this year. Will I predict though. Well, let's see. 

BEST PICTURE (Possibles, longlist)

"Another Round"

"American Skin"

"Ammonite"

"Antebellum"

"The Assistant"

"Athlete A"

"Bacurau"

"Bad Boys for Life"

"Bill and Ted Face the Music"

"Black Bear"

"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"

"The Boys in the Band"

"Cherry"

"Collective"

"Crip Camp..."

"Da 5 Bloods"

"The Devil All the Time"

"Dick Johnson is Dead"

"The Dig"

"Driveways"

"Emma."

"Falling"

"The Father"

"First Cow"

"The Forty-Year-Old Version"

"French Exit"

"The Glorias"

"Greyhound"

"Happiest Season"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"His House"

"Horse Girl"

"I Care a Lot"

"I Carry You With Me"

"I'm No Longer Here"

"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"

"I'm Your Woman"

"The Invisible Man"

"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story"

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Kajillionaire"

"The King of Staten Island"

"La Llorona"

"Land"

"Let Him Go"

"Let Them All Talk"

"The Life Ahead"

"Lingua Franca"

"The Little Things"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Malcolm and Marie"

"Mank"

"Martin Eden"

"The Mauritanian"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Minari"

"Miss Juneteenth"

"Mulan"

"Music"

"The Nest"

"Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

"News of the World"

"Night of the Kings"

"Nomadland"

"On the Rocks"

"One Night in Miami"

"Ordinary Love"

"The Outpost"

"Palm Springs"

"Palmer"

"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

"Pieces of a Woman"

"Possessor"

"The Prom"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Radioactive"

"Saint Maud"

"Shirley"

"Soul"

"Sound of Metal"

"Standing Up, Falling Down"

"Supernova"

"Tenet"

"Time"

"Tommaso"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"The Twentieth Century"

"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

"Wander Darkly"

"The Way Back"

"The White Tiger"

"Wild Mountain Thyme"

"Wolfwalkers"

"Wonder Woman 1984"

"The World to Come"

"Yellow Rose"

For those unfamiliar with my tradition, yeah, the "longlists" are the long list of potential nominees that I gather through several sources, awards mostly, occasionally a personal choice or perhaps some 100-1 shot still straggling on Gold Derby. Also I do it just to showcase films that some might not know about. Basically, anything that I think can possibly in some obscure scenario actually get nominated. Don't think I've overdoing it either, I'm actually missed films that got nominated doing this so, you never know. Anyway, the Academy, despite all other changes are still doing their no fewer then five, no more then ten thing with this category. They've had a longer time to watch and for new films to come up so this'll be interesting. I'm personally stunned for instance, how well a neorealist film like "Nomadland" is doing, but this is the year we got. Anyway, I think the five surefire ones are "Nomadland", "Promising Young Woman", "Minari", "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" and "The Trial of the Chicago 7", the rest I think are up for grabs. Gold Derby has "Mank" in the top 5, but I'm not buying that one; that movie didn't do well with most of the critics groups and missed SAG ensemble, was not liked by BAFTA; I think that's the big snub. 

BEST PICTURE (PREDICTIONS) 

*Da 5 Bloods

*The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Minari

News of the World

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Promising Young Woman

The Trial of the Chicago 7

I'm predicting eight nominations with "Da 5 Bloods" and "The Father" being the possible ninth and tenth nominees, just ahead of "Sound of Metal" being my 11th. I haven't seen "Judas..." yet, but I feel like that's the big one that everyone is underestimating. It came out late, so some predictors like SAG didn't have time to nominate it, but along with Daniel Kaluuya's recent run of Supporting Actor wins as well as it's overperformanc at SAG, I'm thinking it can get in. "News of the World" I'm tempted to take out for "Da 5 Bloods", but I feel like something gonna represent classic Hollywood in this collecting and this one makes the most sense and "Da 5 Bloods" has been trending downward for awhile now. A month ago, I would've had it easily in, but now....

BEST DIRECTING (Possibles, longlist) 

Judd Apatow-"The King of Staten Island"

Ramin Bahrani-"The White Tiger"

Radha Blank-"The Forty-Year-Old Version"

Garrett Bradley-"Time"

Jayro Bustamante-"La Llorona"

Remi Chaye-"Calamity Jane"

Lee Isaac Chung-"Minari"

George Clooney-"The Midnight Sky"

Bonnie Cohen, Jon Shenk-"Athlete A"

Sofia Coppola-"On the Rocks"

Brandon Cronenberg-"Possessor"

Lee Daniels-"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

Josephine Decker-"Shirley"

Pete Doctor-"Soul"

Sean Durkin-"The Nest"

Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw-"The Truffle Hunters"

Pippa Ehrlich & James Reed-"My Octopus Teacher"

Emerald Fennel-"Promising Young Woman"

David Fincher-"Mank"

Fernando Frais de la Parra-"I'm No Longer Here"

David France-"Welcome to Chechnya"

Rose Glass-"Saint Maud"

Channing Godfrey Peoples-"Miss Juneteenth"

Kitty Green-"The Assistant"

Paul Greengrass-"News of the World"

Julia Hart-"I'm Your Woman"

Eliza Hittman-"Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

Ron Howard-"Hillbilly Elegy"

Armando Iannucci-"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

Azazel Jacobs-"French Exit"

Patty Jenkins-"Wonder Woman 1984"

Kristen Johnson-"Dick Johnson is Dead"

Miranda July-"Kajillionaire"

Robert Jury-"Working Man"

Charlie Kaufman-"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"

Glen Keane-"Over the Moon"

Regina King-"One Night in Miami..."

Shaka King-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

Viktor Kosakovsky-"Gunda"

James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham-"Crip Camp"

Francis Lee-"Ammonite"

Spike Lee-"Da 5 Bloods"

Sam Levinson-"Malcolm & Marie"

Rod Lurie-"The Outpost"

Kevin MacDonald-"The Mauritanian"

Joe Mantello-"The Boys in the Band"

Darius Marder-"Sound of Metal"

Amanda McBaine & Jesse Moss-"Boys State"

Tara Miele-"Wander Darkly"

Kornel Mundruczo-"Pieces of a Woman"

Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart-"Wolfwalkers"

Ryan Murphy-"The Prom"

Shannon Murphy-"Babyteeth"

Alexander Nanau-"Collective"

Christopher Nolan-"Tenet"

Gavin O'Connor-"The Way Back"

Sam Pollard-"MLK/FBI"

Edorado Ponti-"The Life Ahead"

Dawn Porter-"John Lewis: Good Trouble"

Gina Prince-Bythewood-"The Old Guard"

Matthew Rankin-"Twentieth Century"

Benjamin Ree-"The Painter and the Thief"

Kelly Reichardt-"First Cow"

Gianfranco Rosi-"Notturno"

Anthony Russo & Joe Russo-"Cherry"

Marjane Satrapi-"Radioactive"

Aaron Schneider-"Greyhound"

John Patrick Shanley-"Wild Mountain Thyme"

Steven Soderbergh-"Let Them All Talk"

Aaron Sorkin-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Simon Stone-"The Dig"

David E. Talbert-"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

Julie Taymor-"The Glorias"

Thomas Vinterberg-"Another Round"

Remi Weekes-"His House"

George C. Wolfe-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Robin Wright-"Land"

Alice Wu-"The Half of It"

Masaaki Yuasa-"Ride Your Wave"

Florian Zeller-"The Father"

Chloe Zhao-"Nomadland"

Seemingly everybody agrees that this year's going to be a major year for women in the category, and I think I have to agree. Chloe Zhao is the heavy favorite to win the Oscar and many of the biggest films this year are from female filmmakers. Two of them were nominated by the DGA, Zhao and Emerald Fennell along with Fincher, Sorkin and Chung. Again, I'm skeptical of Fincher and he's been a nominee before from DGA and missed an Oscar nomination. Another oddity is that there's a lot of big first-time directors out there that could sneak in like Regina King, Darius Marder or Florian Zeller, to name a few. Not to mention a name or two like George C. Wolfe or Eliza Hittman, directors who broke through this year after some other years.

BEST DIRECTING (PREDICTING)

Lee Isaac Chung-"Minari"

Emerald Fennell-"Promising Young Woman"

Regina King-"One Night in Miami"

Aaron Sorkin-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Chloe Zhao-"Nomadland"

I left out "Mank" in Picture, so I'm leaving out Fincher here, replaced him with Regina King who got a DGA nomination for Debut Feature. The only nominee here I'm kinda iffy on is Aaron Sorkin, who is more of a writer then a director. His DGA nomination surprised me the most. I debated between a few other names, Paul Greengrass I think can play a spoiler, so to Spike Lee, or actually, the big name I'm wondering about Thomas Vinterberg for "Another Round"; the Academy's been liking him lately and this seems like a weird year where a Foreign Film can into a category like this but I couldn't imagine them taking out two names from the DGA list and I'm already gambling by leaving Fincher out.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (Possibles, longlist)

Christopher Abbott-"Possessor"

Ben Affleck-"The Way Back"

Casey Affleck-"Our Friend"

Riz Ahmed-"Sound of Metal"

Gabriel Basso-"Hillbilly Elegy"

Kingsley Ben-Adir-"One Night in Miami"

Sacha Baron Cohen-"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"

Chadwick Boseman-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Jim Carrey-"Sonic the Hedgehog"

George Clooney-"The Midnight Sky"

James Corden-"The Prom"

Kevin Costner-"Let Him Go"

Pete Davidson-"The King of Staten Island"

Brian Dennehy-"Driveways"

Sope Dirisu-"His Horse"

Jamie Dornan-"Wild Mountain Thyme"

Chiwetel Ejiofor-"The Old Guard"

Armando Espitia-"I Carry You With Me"

Ralph Fiennes-"The Dig"

Colin Firth-"Supernova"

Peter Gerety-"Working Man"

Eli Goree-"One Night in Miami..."

Adarsh Gourav-"The White Tiger"

Tom Hanks-"Greyhound"

Tom Hanks-"News of the World"

Chris Hemsworth-"Extraction"

Tom Holland-"Cherry"

Tom Holland-"The Devil All the Time"

Anthony Hopkins-"The Father"

Michiel Hulsman-"The Other Lamb"

Shia LaBeouf-"Pieces of a Woman"

Caleb Landry Jones-"The Outpost"

Jude Law-"The Nest"

Delroy Lindo-"Da 5 Bloods"

Diego Luna-"Wander Darkly"

Anthony Mackie-"The Banker"

John Magaro-"First Cow"

Luca Marinelli-"Martin Eden"

Mads Mikkelsen-"Another Round"

Liam Neeson-"Ordinary Love"

Gary Oldman-"Mank"

Jim Parsons-"The Boys in the Band"

Dev Patel-"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

Jesse Plemons-"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"

Tahar Rahim-"The Mauritanian"

Eddie Redmayne-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Trevonte Rhodes-"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

Andy Samberg-"Palm Springs"

Ben Schwartz-"Sonic the Hedgehog

Will Smith-"Bad Boys for Life"

LaKeith Stansfield-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

Dan Stevens-"The Rental"

Justin Timberlake-"Palmer"

Vince Vaughn-"Freaky"

John David Washington-"Malcolm and Marie"

John David Washington-"Tenet"

Forest Whitaker-"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

Steven Yeun-"Minari"

Going by SAG, I think there's four obvious ones that are in, Riz Ahmed, Chadwick Boseman, the sentimental favorite, Anthony Hopkins and Steven Yeun. Gary Oldman got the fifth nomination and the actor do like Gary Oldman. The other big names out there are Delroy Lindo for "Da 5 Bloods" which I'm not sure how much the Academy likes, but it did get into SAG Ensemble, but it really underperformed at BAFTA, only getting a Supporting nomination for Clark Peters somewhat surprisingly. The PGA didn't care for it much, but it is actors who vote here. There's other spoilers out there though, Tahar Rahim, Adarsh Gourav and Mads Mikkelsen snuck in at BAFTA as they decided to go way off the script this year. Maybe "The White Tiger" hit at the right time, but I'm skeptical on that one, but Rahim and Mikkelsen I think could play spoilers here, especially Mikkelsen. I don't know if the Academy likes "The Mauritanian"; it's definitely way more popular in England then in America where the film has barely shown at any awards at all. (Also he's not even listed on Gold Derby, but I wouldn't completely discount Mark Rylance for "The Trial of the Chicago 7" getting in here; I'd argue if he's in supporting it might be category fraud). Also taking clues from BAFTA, if "Judas and the Black Messiah" is on the rise as it looks like, then LaKeith Stansfield makes a lot of sense here as well. 

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (PREDICTIONS) 

Riz Ahmed-"Sound of Metal"

Chadwick Boseman-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Anthony Hopkins-"The Father"

Delroy Lindo-"Da 5 Bloods"

Steven YEUN-"Minari"

I'm gonna stick close to SAG here, only switching out Oldman for Lindo because Oldman has already got an Oscar and are in no need to honor him again and that Lindo is long overdue for a nomination and I gotta imagine the Academy likes "Da 5 Bloods" and him enough to honor him. Look out for Mikkelsen

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (Possible, longlist) 

Amy Adams-"Hillbilly Elegy"

Nicole Beharie-"Miss Juneteenth"

Maria Bakalova-"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"

Haley Bennett-"Swallow"

Radha Blank-"The Forty-Year-Old Version"

Emily Blunt-"Wild Mountain Thyme"

Rachel Brosnahan-"I'm Your Woman"

Jessie Buckley-"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"

Morfydd Clark-"Saint Maud"

Hong Chau-"Driveways"

Carrie Coon-"The Nest"

Viola Davis-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Andra Day-"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

Clare Dunne-"Herself"

Tracee Ellis Ross-"The High Note"

Sidney Flanigan-"Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

Gal Gadot-"Wonder Woman 1984"

Julia Garner-"The Assistant"

Betty Gilpin-"The Hunt"

HAN Ye-Ri-"Minari"

Kate Hudson-"Music"

Felicity Jones-"The Midnight Sky"

Rashida Jones-"On the Rocks"

Vanessa Kirby-"Pieces of a Woman"

Diane Lane-"Let Him Go"

Yifei Liu-"Mulan"

Blake Lively-"The Rhythm Section"

Sophia Loren-"The Life Ahead"

Julia Louis-Dreyfus-"Downhill"

Lesley Manville-"Ordinary Love"

Rachel McAdams-"Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"

Frances McDormand-"Nomadland"

Cristin Milioti-"Palm Springs"

Sienna Miller-"Wander Darkly"

Madalen Mills-"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

Janelle Monae-"Antebellum"

Julianne Moore-"The Glorias"

Wunmi Mosaka-"His House"

Elisabeth Moss-"The Invisible Man"

Elisabeth Moss-"Shirley"

Carey Mulligan-"The Dig"

Carey Mulligan-"Promising Young Woman"

Kathryn Newton-"Freaky"

Jo Ellen Pellman-"The Prom"

Michelle Pfeiffer-"French Exit"

Rosamund Pike-"I Care A Lot"

Rosamund Pike-"Radioactive"

Aubrey Plaza-"Black Bear"

Issa Rae-"The Photograph"

Andrea Riseborough-"Luxor"

Andrea Riseborough-"Possessor"

Margot Robbie-"Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn"

Isabel Sandoval-"Lingua Franca"

Eliza Scanlen-"Babyteeth"

Meryl Streep-"Let Them All Talk"

Meryl Streep-"The Prom"

Anya Taylor-Joy-"Emma."

Sheila Vand-"The Rental"

Katherine Waterston-"The World to Come"

Kate Winslet-"Ammonite"

Evan Rachel Wood-"Kajillionaire"

Robin Wright-"Land"

Yuh-Jung Youn-"Minari"

Zendaya-"Malcolm and Marie"

BAFTA through a few weird curveballs in this category this year, including nominating Alfre Woodard for "Clemency", which came out in 2019 here so isn't eligible. They also completely ignored Carey Mulligan despite "Promising Young Woman" getting into Picture with them. Other then that though, Gold Derby has really narrowed this down to Mulligan, Vanessa Kirby, Viola Davis, Andra Day and Frances McDormand. The only two women outside of that five that have a better then 100-1 odds of a nomination are Sophia Loren for "The Life Ahead" and Zendaya for "Malcolm and Marie". I'm not buying any of the hype into Malcolm and Marie"; that's shown up almost nowhere even after it came out. The Life Ahead", ehh, maybe, if the older Academy voters want to give it a block, Loren did once win an Oscar for a foreign film, and was the only nominee from se film, but that was also over sixty years ago. That said, I can see a couple spoilers here, most notably Amy Adams, who did get into SAG. Kate Winslet, could also be a latecomer here, so can Rosamund Pike for "I Care a Lot" and Yeri Han for "Minari" and I don't want to rule out Elisabeth Moss for "The Invisible Man" so easily either. There's nothing in the tea leaves for Sidney Flanigan for "Never Rarely Sometimes Always" unfortunately but there could also be some category jumping with Maria Bakalova if the Academy decides she's more of a co-lead, but I think that's a stretch. 

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (PREDICTIONS)

Viola Davis-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Andra Day-"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

Vanessa Kirby-"Pieces of a Woman"

Frances McDormand-"Nomadland"

Carey Mulligan-"Promising Young Woman"

I'm not gonna stretch too much here thouhg, I don't see Sophia Loren getting in, and with five obvious ones from universally accepted better movies I can't imagine Amy Adams sneaking in either, despite the SAG. I suspect the Guild hadn't seen "The United States vs. Billie Holiday" yet.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (Possibles, longlist)

Christopher Abbott-"Possessor"

Yayha Abdul-Mateen II-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Demian Bichir-"Land"

Matt Bomer-"The Boys in the Band"

Bill Burr-"The King of Staten Island"

Sacha Baron Cohen-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Kingsley Ben-Adir-"One Night in Miami"

Chadwick Boseman-"Da 5 Bloods"

Bo Burnham-"Promising Young Woman"

Peter Capaldi-"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

Jim Carrey-"Sonic the Hedgehog"

Kyle Chandler-"The Midnight Sky"

Billy Crystal-"Standing Up, Falling Down"

Benedict Cumberbatch-"The Mauritanian"

Charles Dance-"Mank"

Robin De Jesus-"The Boys in the Band"

Brian Dennehy-"Driveways"

Colman Domingo-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Joseph Gordon-Levitt-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Lucas Hedges-"French Exit"

Lucas Hedges-"Let Them All Talk"

Lance Henriksen-"Falling"

Aldis Hodge-"One Night in Miami"

Arliss Howard-"Mank"

Timothy Hutton-"The Glorias"

Richard Jenkins-"Kajillionaire"

Daniel Kaluuya-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

Alan Kim-"Minari"

Shia Labeouf-"Pieces of a Woman"

Caleb Landry Jones-"The Outpost"

Frank Langella-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Hugh Laurie-"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

Orion Lee-"First Cow"

Jared Leto-"The Little Things"

Tracy Letts-"French Exit"

Dan Levy-"Happiest Season"

Matthew Macfayden-"The Assistant"

Jonathan Majors-"Da 5 Bloods"

Rami Malek-"The Little Things"

Ewan McGregor-"Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One harley Quinn"

Ben Mendelsohn-"Babyteeth"

Bill Murray-"On the Rocks"

Leslie Odom Jr.-"One Night in Miami"

David Oyelowo-"The Midnight Sky"

Robert Pattinson-"Tenet"

Tom Pelphrey-"Mank"

Clarke Peters-"Da 5 Bloods"

Jesse Plemons-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

Zachary Quinto-"The Boys in the Band"

Paul Raci-"Sound of Metal"

Andrew Rannells-"The Boys in the Band"

Andrew Rannells-"The Prom"

Mark Rylance-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Jason Segal-"Our Friend"

Martin Sheen-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

J.K. Simmons-"Palm Springs"

Dan Stevens-"Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"

David Straitharn-"Nomadland"

Jeremy Strong-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Charlize Theron-"The Old Guard"

David Thewlis-"I"m Thinking of Ending Things"

Stanley Tucci-"Supernova"

Glynn Turman-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Man, the Academy really needs an Ensemble category. It's very possible that nobody from "The Trial of the Chicago 7" or "The Boys in the Band" or "The Personal History of David Copperfield" or even "Mank" or any of these other movies that are just loaded with great actors and incredible performances get in anywhere. Anyway, the really late-riser to the category is Jared Leto who got both surprise Globe and SAG nominations. Gold Derby has him listed as a longshot at just over 50-1 at the moment despite that, and it sure doesn't seem like "The Little Things" caught on, but I do tend to err on the side of SAG, however they did miss Paul Raci who seemed like a shoe-in nomination. Bill Murray also seemed like an obvious pick here for a long time but "On the Rocks" only seems to be getting credit for him, not a great sign in a year where there's a logjam at the top. I'm not certain that Chadwick Boseman is getting in for both "Da 5 Bloods" and "Ma Rainey...", especially since he's rarely barely in the former and is more presence then performance but there's a sentimental vote out there. Not at BAFTA though. This feels like a category where there's some wild cards at play.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (PREDICTIONS)

Sacha Baron Cohen-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Daniel Kaluuya-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

Bill Murray-"On the Rocks"

Leslie Odom, Jr.-"One Night in Miami..."

Paul Raci-"Sound of Metal"

Here's the thing with Jared Leto, while he got the SAG and Globe nominations, he literally didn't get anything else. Not a critics award nomination, not anything, and even for a late-comer, that's not too good. It's possible the actor community likes him more then the critics, but I'm not seeing it. I'm also not seeing Boseman getting in, but that last spot was tricky. I think Alan Kim could be a surprise possibility, I think if "Nomadland" is as dominant as it seems that David Straitharn makes a lot of sense, eventually, I thought maybe another of the "Chicago 7" troop like Rylance or Langella might sneak in; that's a possibility, but  I just decided to go with who I saw getting mentioned or honored the most from the rest of the Awards, and that's where Bill Murray I think makes the most real sense here. Sacha Baron Cohen's basically getting in for a great year with this and "Borat...", and Paul Raci seems like as much a lock as Ahmed is for "Sound of Metal"; I think even those who didn't like the movie admired both the performances and we have a two-way race between Kaluuya and Odom for the win, and Kaluuya's ahead right now, but it's close.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Possibles, longlist)

Jane Adams-"She Dies Tomorrow"

Maria Bakalova-"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"

Candice Bergen-"Let Them All Talk"

Marsha Stephanie Blake-"I'm Your Woman"

Sonia Braga-"Bacurau"

Ellen Burstyn-"Pieces of a Woman"

Alexis Chikaeze-"Miss Juneteenth"

Priyanka Chopra Jonas-"The White Tiger"

Glenn Close-"Hillbilly Elegy"

Lynn Cohen-"Lingua Franca"

Toni Collette-"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"

Lily Collins-"Mank"

Olivia Colman-"The Father"

Olivia Cooke-"Sound of Metal"

Laverne Cox-"Promising Young Woman"

Essie Davis-"Babyteeth"

MacKenzie Davis-"Happiest Season"

Elizabeth Debicki-"Tenet"

Jennifer Ehle-"Saint Maud"

Dominique Fishback-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

Caitlin FitzGerald-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Jodie Foster-"The Mauritanian"

Ibrahima Gueye-"The Life Ahead"

Dakota Johnson-"Our Friend"

Nicole Kidman-"The Prom"

Vanessa Kirby-"The World to Come"

Kiki Layne-"The Old Guard"

Laura Linney-"Falling"

Nia Long-"The Banker"

Valerie Mahaffey-"French Exit"

Lesley Manville-"Let Him Go"

Bette Midler-"The Glorias"

Janelle Monae-"The Glorias"

Taylor Paige-"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Phylicia Rashad-"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

Saoirse Ronan-"Ammonite"

Anika Noni Rose-"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

Talia Ryder-"Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

Fiona Shaw-"Ammonite"

Gabourey Sidibe-"Antebellum"

Amanda Seyfried-"Mank"

Talia Shire-"Working Man"

Jurnee Smollett-"Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn"

Caoilinn Springall-"The Midnight Sky"

Hilary Swank-"The Hunt"

Swankie-"Nomadland"

Marisa Tomei-"The King of Staten Island"

Alicia Vikander-"The Glorias"

Kerry Washington-"The Prom"

Dianne Wiest-"I Care a Lot"

Dianne Wiest-"Let Them All Talk"

Debra Winger-"Kajillionaire"

Shailene Woodley-"The Mauritanian"

You-Jung YOUN-"Minari"

Helena Zengel-"News of the World"

So the only person to get all three, a SAG nomination, a BAFTA nomination and a Globes nomination out of this group, is Maria Bakalova for "Borat...". Honestly, I get it, and I think she my might secretly be the favorite in the category. Now the Globes actually nominated her in Lead, so it's a little deceiving but still. Actually, the real oddity at BAFTA was that Olivia Colman of all people wasn't nominated there, which makes me concerned about "The Father" as a BP possibility. I loved it, but I can see how it would annoy some, but I think the SAG nomination puts her in. Amanda Seyfried was the person who I thought was the most likely to get an acting nomination for "Mank", but she only got a Golden Globe nomination. And this was a snub, because SAG did nominate Oldman. SAG also nominated Helena Zengel, who got the Globe, which was won by Jodie Foster for "The Mauritanian" which overperformed at BAFTA. However, that overperformance, did not come with a Jodie Foster nomination. Instead Dominique Fishback snuck in. This category is all over the map. 

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (PREDICTIONS)

Maria Bakalova-"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"

Glenn Close-"Hillbilly Elegy"

Olivia Colman-"The Father"

Yuh-jung YOUN-"Minari"

Helena Zengel-"News of the World"

There's a few other possibilities here, Seyfried being the big one, but not getting a SAG seems foreboding to me. Ellen Bustryn's snub is also odd, and frankly I just don't know if the American audience has been captivated by "The Mauritanian" to nominate Foster this year, even with a Globes win. It's not unusual for a Globes winner in Supporting doesn't get nominated at the Oscars either. Dominique Fishback getting into BAFTA is a little interesting too, 'cause I am predicting "Judas..." ot overperform here, but I'm gonna play it safe and go paint from SAG which means, that Helena Zengel gets the final spot for "News of the World" which I also think has a shot of over-performing and getting into Picture, so an acting nomination makes sense here. 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (Possibles, longlist)

"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"

"The Boys in the Band"

"Cherry"

"The Devil All the Time"

"The Dig"

"Emma."

"The Father"

"First Cow"

"French Exit"

"The Glorias"

"Greyhound"

"Happiest Season"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"His House"

"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"

"The Invisible Man"

"Let Him Go"

"The Life Ahead'

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Martin Eden"

"The Mauritanian"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Mulan"

"Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

"News of the World"

"Nomadland"

"One Night in Miami"

"Our Friend"

"The Outpost"

"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

"The Prom"

"Radioactive"

"Shirley"

"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

"The White Tiger"

"Wild Mountain Thyme"

"Wonder Woman 1984"

"The World to Come"

Oooh, tough category to predict this year. The awards have been all over the map, and the WGA is notoriously unreliable as a predictor. For instance, "Nomadland" and "The Father" missed WGA because they were ineligible according to their rules. That doesn't necessarily mean that they'll get nominated; I can think of some knocks for both of them, "Nomadland" doesn't really have a well-crafted script and "The Father" is basically a very direct adaptation of a play, but I can argue the same for "Ma Rainey..." and "One Night in Miami". WGA did nominate "Borat..." which was nominated before, so the writers like it, despite the movie being heavily improvised. There's some other films out there though, like "The White Tiger" and "First Cow" that might only get one nomination and this feels like the best place for them. "First Cow" didn't get the WGA and I think it was eligible. 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (PREDICTIONS)

The Father-Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-Ruben Santiago-Hudson

One Night in Miami-Kemp Powers

Nomadland-Chloe Zhao

The White Tiger-Ramin Bahrani

I came close to taking "Nomadland" out for a minute. I thought about "First Cow", which has the NYFCC prize for Best Picture, which usually gets something, but I don't know if enough writers saw it. They did nominate "News of the World" and "The White Tiger" which got in to WGA, and BAFTA, and "News of the World" got into Critics, but "The White Tiger" came out too late for them. I think it's a coin toss but looking through the likely Original nominees, there's nothing there that looks like it wouldn't only get one nomination and usually the Oscars have one film that gets only a Writing nomination, and I'm predicting "News..." for other categories. 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (Possibles, longlist)

"All In: the Fight for Democracy"

"Ammonite"

"Another Round"

"The Assistant"

"Bacurau"

"Da 5 Bloods"

"The Dissident"

"Driveways"

"Falling"

"The Forty-Year-Old Version"

"The Half of It"

"I Care a Lot"

"I'm No Longer Here"

"I'm Your Wonder"

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Kajillionaire"

"The King of Staten Island"

"La Llorona"

"Land"

"Let Them All Talk"

"Lingua Franca"

"The Little Things"

"Malcolm and Marie"

"Mank"

"Minari"

"Miss Juneteenth"

"The Nest"

"Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

"On the Rocks"

"Ordinary Love"

"Palm Springs"

"Palmer"

"Pieces of a Woman"

"Possessor"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Saint Maud"

"Soul"

"Sound of Metal"

"Standing Up, Falling Down"

"Supernova"

"Tenet"

"Totally Under Control"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"Twentieth Century"

"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

"Wander Darkly"

"Working Man"

"The Way Back"

Original Screenplay is slightly less of a logjam then Adapted this year, but that doesn't mean it isn't just as difficult to predict. "Promising Young Woman", "The Trial of the Chicago 7" and probably "Minari" seem like locks, despite the latter missing out on BAFTA and not WGA eligible. It's the last two that are trickier to call. "Da 5 Bloods" missing WGA feels like a particularly bad sign for me. "Mank" and "Minari" Were WGA ineligible with "Palm Springs" surprisingly beating out such potentials as "Never Rarely Sometimes Always", "Another Round" got into BAFTA, but I'm not sure there's a weak enough field for a foreign nominee this year. "Judas..." got into WGA too, and I think they will probably squeak by over "Soul". 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (PREDICTIONS)

Judas and the Black Messiah-Will Berson & Shaka King

Minari-Lee Isaac Chung

Promising Young Woman-Emerald Fennell

Sound of Metal-Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance

The Trial of the Chicago 7-Aaron Sorkin

I'm still not sold on "Mank" even here; in fact I thought the script to that film was the weakest part of that film, so I think "Judas..." will come in late here and squeak by "Soul" for the last spot. If there's an out-of-nowhere spoiler, eh, probably "Another Round". 

ANIMATED FEATURE (Eligible list) 

"Accidental Luxuriance of the Translucent Watery Rebus"

"Bombay Rose"

"Calamity"

"The Croods: A New Age"

"Demon Slayer-Kimetsu No Yaiba-The Movie: Mugen Train"

"Dreambbuilders"

"Earwig and the Witch"

"Lupin III: The First"

"Mosley"

"My Favorite War"
"Nos III Zagovor Ne Takikh"

"No. 7 Cherry Lane"

"On-Gaku: Our Sound"

"Onward"

"Over the Moon"

"Red Shoes and the Seven Dwarfs"

"Ride Your Wave"

"Scoob!"

"A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon"

"Soul"

"The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run"

"Terra Willy"

"Trolls World Tour"

"A Whisker Away"

"The Willoughbys"

"Wolfwalkers"

Damn that's a lot of animated movies. Trying to sort out the Annies is interesting, 'cause you basically know the big nominees, but you're still searching around for a surprise or two here. "Soul", "Wolfwalkers" and "Onward" are obviously in, but after that, it gets a little tricky to sort out, especially knowing that there's at least one unexpected nomination out there. 

ANIMATED FEATURE (PREDICTIONS)

Onward

Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Soul

The Willoughbys

Wolfwalkers

I'm leaving out "Trolls World Tour", which I never bought as being popular, remembed the first one got only a Song nomination, not an Animation nomination, and I went with "Shaun the Sheep..." as the odd one there, 'cause I think that one's got a fanbase. After that, I went with "The Willoughbys" over the "Croods" sequel as well as something like "Over the Moon" and "Ride your Wave" or even an anime like "Earwig and the Witch" or "No. 7 Cherry Lane" 'cause it really over-performed at the Annie and it's done decently well elsewise too.

DOCUMENTARY (Shortlist)

"All In: The Fight for Democracy"

"Boys State"

"Collective"

"Crip Camp"

"Dick Johnson is Dead"

"Gunda"

"MLK/FBI"

"The Mole Agent"

"My Octopus Teacher"

"Notturno"

"The Painter and the Thief"

"76 Days"

"Time"

"The Truffle Hunters"

"Welcome to Chechnya"

I've seen a decent amount of these, not all of them though. From what I can tell here though, nothing here that's an obvious dud, but it's gonna take some research to see what's in or not. It doesn't help either that the Academy is notoriously unreliable at sticking to the script either. Hmm....

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (PREDICTIONS)

All In: The Fight for Democracy

Collective

Dick Johnson is Dead

My Octopus Teacher

Welcome to Chechnya

I'm going on instincts here, I basically went with the movies I thought they would enjoy the most, and just took some educated guesses based on some of the Guild awards and other shortlists. So, I'm leaving off "Time" and "Collective" two of the favorites, but, eh, it's the documentary branch, they're gonna surprise us somehow. 

ANDENDUM: I switched "Collective" back in later, taking out "Boys State"

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (Shortlist)

"Another Round (Denmark)

"Better Days (Hong Kong)

"Charlatan" (Czech Republic)

"Collective (Romania)

"Dear Comrades!" (Russia)

"Hope" (Norway)

"I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)

"La Llorona" (Guatemala)

"The Man Who Sold His Skin" (Tunisia)

"The Mole Agent" (Chile)

"Night of the Kings (Cote D'Ivorie [Ivory Coast])

"Quo Vadis Aida?" (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

"Sun Children (Iran)

"A Sun" (Taiwan)

"Two of Us" (France)

Hmm..., well, they made this a 15-film shortlist instead of the traditional nine, makes it a little harder for me. I'm fairly certain "Another Round" is in, nothing else looks obvious. "Collective" and "The Mole Agent" made the documentary shortlists; it's possibly they can get into both, but I thought that was a fluke last year. Other then that, eh, I guess there could be a surprised like "A Sun" or the Tunisian film "The Man Who Sold his Skin" although that seems a little out there even for a liberal academy.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (PREDICTIONS)

Another Round (Denmark)

Dear Comrades! (Russia)

I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)

La Llorona (Guatemala)

Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Mostly here, I looked through my award sheets and looked through what movies popped up the most and in the most important places. Little concerned I'm underestimating "Collective", and "Two of Us' looks like that could be popular but other then that, I'll stick with ths. 

CINEMATOGRAPHY (Possibles, longlist)

"Ammonite"

"Another Round"

"The Assistant"

"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"

"The Boys in the Band"

"Boys State"

"Cherry"

"Da 5 Bloods'

"Dear Comrades"

"The Devil All the Time"

"Dick Johnson is Dead"

"The Dig"

"Emma."

"Falling"

"The Father"

"First Cow"

"French Exit"

"The Glorias"

"Greyhound"

"Gunda"

"Happiest Season"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"His House"

"I'm No Longer Here"

"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"

"I'm Your Woman"

"The Invisible Man"

"Jingle Jange: A Christmas Journey"

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Kajillionaire"

"The King of Staten Island"

"La Llorona"

"Land"

"Let Them All Talk"

"The Life Ahead"

"The Little Things"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Malcolm and Marie"

"Mank"

"The Mauritanian"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Minari"

"Miss Juneteenth"

"Mulan"

"My Octopus Teacher"

"The Nest"

"Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

"News of the World"

"Nomadland"

"Notturno"

"On the Rocks"

"One Night in Miami"

"Ordinary Love"

"The Outpost"

"Palm Springs"

"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

"Pieces of a Woman"

"Pinocchio"

"The Prom"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Radioactive"

"Saint Maud"

"She Dies Tomorrow"

"Shirley"

"Soul"

"Sound of Metal"

"Supernova"

"Swallow"

"Tenet"

"Time"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"The Truffle Hunters"

"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

"Wander Darkly"

"The Way Back"

"Welcome to Chechnya"

"The White Tiger"

"Wild Mountain Thyme"

"Wonder Woman 1984"

"Working Man"

One of the Guild surprises was "Cherry" sneaking into the ASC nominations kinda outta nowhere. It's a very late comer onto this award season, over "Tenet" of all films. You know, there usually is one weird one in the category. This group also loves foreign films as well and "Dear Comrades!" and "Swallow" got into their foreign "Spotlight" category.

CINEMATOGRAPHY (PREDICTIONS)

Mank-Erik Messerschmidt

News of the World-Dariusz Wolski

Nomadland-Joshua James Richards

Tenet-Hoyte Van Hoytema

The Trial of the Chicago 7-Phedon Papmichael

I thought about going completely off the board and taking "Dear Comrades" as a spoiler, but "Mank" is already a black and white film in the list and I suspect "Swallow" is a little too much for the Cinematographers to, well, swallow, so I'm sticking with paint from the ASC Awards, with the exception of "Tenet" getting in instead of "Cherry". 

COSTUME DESIGN (Possibles, longlist) 

"Ammonite"

"Another Round"

"The Assistant"

"Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar"

"Birds of Prey: And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn"

"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"

"The Boys in the Band"

"Cherry"

"Da 5 Bloods"

"The Dig"

"Dolittle"

"Emma."

"Enola Holmes"

"Falling"

"The Father"

"First Cow"

"French Exit"

"The Glorias"

"Greyhound"

"Happiest Season"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"

"I'm Your Woman"

"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Kajillionaire"

"The King of Staten Island"

"Land"

"Let Them All Talk"

"The Life Ahead"

"The Little Things"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Malcolm and Marie"

"Mank"

"The Mauritanian"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Minari"

"Nomadland"

"Mulan"

"Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

"News of the World"

"On the Rocks"

"One Night in Miami"

"Ordinary Love"

"The Outpost"

"Palm Springs"

"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

"Pieces of a Woman"

"Pinocchio"

"The Prom"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Radioactive"

"Roald Dahl's The Witches"

"Saint Maud"

"The Secret Garden"

"Shirley"

"Sound of Metal"

"Supernova"

"Tenet"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

"The Way Back"

"Wander Darkly"

"The White Tiger"

"Wild Mountain Thyme"

"Wonder Woman 1984"

"Working Man"

I tend to trust the Costume Designers Guild with this category, but they have several categories and they've been off recently. That said, I think it's safe to say "Mank", "Emma." and "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom". are in. The last two spot, a little up in the air. I thought "The Personal History of David Copperfield" would be in, but that missed the Guild completely. So did "News of the World" which is in Gold Derby's top 5 along with "Mulan" which did get in at the CDG. One of the superhero movies like "Wonder Woman 1984" or "Birds of Prey..." would make sense here; they both got into the Guilds, but which one. "Judas also got in late; that's a period piece. Hell, it got in over "The Trial of the Chicago 7" and that's basically the same time period. 

COSTUME DESIGN (PREDICTIONS) 

Emma.-Alexandra Byrne

Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey-Michael Wilkinson

Judas and the Black Messiah-Charlese Antoinette Jones

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-Ann Roth

Mank-Trish Summerville

I'm gonna take a shot with sticking with the Guild. "...David Copperfield" should've gotten in, certainly over something like "One Night in Miami" which has mainly four characters in the same costumes for most of the film. So, going with "Judas..." instead makes sense there. "Mulan" I'm a little iffy on, if there's something else that sneaks in, I guess "Wonder Woman 1984" makes the most sense to me. They might go with something weird here like "Jingle Jangle..." but that's usually the Makeup peoples' objective. 

ADENDUM: Yeah, I took "Mulan" out and put in "Jingle Jangle...". I suspect that's more well-liked anyway.

FILM EDITING (Possibles, longlists)

"All In: The Fight for Democracy"

"Ammonite"

"Another Round"

"The Assistant"

"Beastie Boys Story"

"Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn"

"Black Bear"

"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"

"The Boys in the Band"

"Boys State"

"Cherry"

"Collective"

"The Croods: A New Age"

"Crip Camp..."

"Da 5 Bloods"

"The Devil All the Time"

"Dick Johnson is Dead"

"The Dig"

"Disclosure"

"The Dissident"

"Emma."

"Falling"

"The Father"

"First Cow"

"French Exit"

"The Glorias"

"Gunda"

"Greyhound"

"Happiest Season"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"His House"

"I Care a Lot"

"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"

"I'm Your Woman"

"The Invisible Man"

"Kajillionaire"

"The King of Staten Island"

"Land"

"Let Them All Talk"

"The Life Ahead"

"The Little Things"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Malcolm and Marie"

"Mank"

"The Mauritanian"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Minari"

"MLK/FBI"

"The Mole Agent"

"Mulan"

"My Octopus Teacher"

"The Nest"
"Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

"News of the World"

"Nomadland"

"On the Rocks"

"One Night in Miami"

"Onward"

"Ordinary Love"

"The Outpost"

"Over the Moon"

"Palm Springs"

"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

"Pieces of a Woman"

"Pinocchio"

"The Prom"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Radioactive"

"Saint Maud"

"Shirley"

"The Social Dilemma"

"Soul"

"Sound of Metal"

"Supernova"

"Tenet"

"Time"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

"Wander Darkly"

"The Way Back"

"Welcome to Chechnya"

"The White Tiger"

"Wild Mountain Thyme"

"Wolfwalkers"

"Wonder Woman 1984"

"Working Man"

Huh, The Eddie Awards listed "Promising Young Woman" as a comedy. Uhhhh, ohhhh-kay. You know, I'm usually the one who will defend movies that, might not traditionally "make you laugh" as comedies; I still contend "Lost in Translation" is a comedy, and a truly all-time great one at that, but-eh, I saw "Promising Young Woman" and-eh, I gotta disagree with the American Cinema Editors here on this one. I do think that that's a clue that that's getting in, along with, probably four of the five dramatic nominees they had, which were "Minari", "Mank", "Nomadland", "Sound of Metal" and "The Trial oft he Chicago 7" although there's a couple interesting comedy ones that I suspect we're underrated. "Borat..." had to be cobbled together from improvised scenes, that's a movie that was built practically in the editing room, and "Palm Springs", using that "Groundhog Day" dynamic is also a tricky edit. That said, there's nothing obvious in terms of action or chase movies that could sneak in here. I'm a little concerned about "Nomadland" myself, 'cause that wasn't the most edited work, but it's the director who edited the film so I think it's getting in.

FILM EDITING (PREDICTIONS)

Mank-Kirk Baxter
Nomadland-Chloe Zhao

Promising Young Woman-Frederic Thoraval

Sound of Metal-Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

The Trial of the Chicago 7-Alan Baumgarten

I'm gonna leave out "Minari" from the ACE's precursors, replacing it with "Promising Young Woman". I thought about taking out "Mank", but the movie does cobble together a decent editing job and there was nothing obvious that I thought would replace it. I would've thought something like "Tenet" or "The Invisible Man" would've gotten in somewhere at the Eddies if they were real competition and i don't see the superhero movies sneaking in this year.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING(Shortlist)

"Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn"

"Emma."

"The Glorias"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

"The Little Things"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Mank"

"One Night in Miami"

"Pinocchio"

The Makeup and Hairstylists Guilds or, the MUAHs, (as in a kiss, MUAH!) are notoriously unreliable as predictors, however I'm a little more willing to trust them since the Academy extended the category to five nominees last year, and fucking finally. Still, if you looked at them alone, you'd think "Bill and Ted Face the Music" was the heavy favorite. (Seriously, it got into all the film categories.) So, okay, what else got in. Well, "Birds of Prey..." got two nominations, they should be in. "Hillbilly Elegy" got a couple here, that makes sense, and one nomination each for "Mank", "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" and "Pinocchio". I'll check the trailers for the rest of the films just to see if there's something hugely obvious afterwards and-eh, "Jingle Jangle..." looks like the kind of strange thing they might nominate just to be weird. (I'm honestly also rethinking my Costume Designer predictions too on that one. I don't see much else, I guess I should watch the "Pinocchio" trailer just in case, so I know what that make-up looks like...-AGHHHHHHHHH!!! 

(Pause)

Excuse me, I need a minute on that. 

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (PREDICTIONS)

Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emacipation of One Harley Quinn

Emma.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Hillbilly Elegy

Jingle Jange: A Christmas Journey

Yikes, that "Pinocchio" is scary in that I genuinely can't tell if it's makeup is so good they'll nominate it or so horrific they'll nominate it. Anyway, I'm playing it mostly safe here. "Suicide Squad" won this category, so I think "Birds of Prey" is safe, and I'm only putting in "Emma." and "Jingle Jangle..." as outside surprise nominees. "Ma Rainey..." I'm a little worried about, but I think there's enough makeup in it to get in.

PRODUCTION DESIGN (Possibles, longlist)

"Ammonite"

"Another Round"

"The Assistant"

"Birds of Prey: and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn"

"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"

"The Boys in the Band"

"Cherry"

"Da 5 Bloods"

"The Devil All the Time"

"The Dig"

"Dolittle"

"Emma."

"Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"

"Falling"

"The Father"

"First Cow"

"French Exit"

"The Glorias"

"Greyhound"

"Happiest Season"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"His House"

"I'm Thinking of Ending Things"

"I'm Your Woman"

"The Invisible Man"

"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Kajillionaire"

"The King of Staten Island"

"Land"

"Let Them All Talk"

"The Life Ahead"

"The Little Things"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Malcolm and Marie"

"Mank"

"The Mauritanian"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Minari"

"Miss Juneteenth"

"Mulan"

"The Nest"

"Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

"News of the World"

"Nomadland"

"On the Rocks"

"Onward"

"Ordinary Love"

"The Outpost"

"Palm Springs"

"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

"Pieces of a Woman"

"Pinocchio"

"The Prom"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Radioactive"

"Rebecca"

"Roald Dahl's The Witches"

"Saint Maud"

"A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon"

"Shirley"

"Soul"

"Sound of Metal"

"Supernova"

"Tenet"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"Trolls World Tour"

"Twentieth Century"

"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

"Wander Darkly"

"The Way Back"

"The White Tiger"

"Wild Mountain Thyme"

"The Willoughbys"

"Wolfwalkers"

"Wonder Woman 1984"

"Working Man"

Okay, this is interesting, because now there's two Guilds for this category, one for the Art Directors and another for Set Decorators, who are giving out their awards for the first time this year. So, I'm thinking to narrow down tot he films that got both Guilds, and that's "Da 5 Bloods", "I'm Thinking of Ending Things", "Ma Rainey...", "News of the World", "The Trial of the Chicago 7", "Tenet", "Palm Springs", "The Prom" and "Promising Young Woman" over several categories of course. Uh, let's see...  "Palm Springs" and "The Prom" are probably unlikely, and I'm taking a shot and say that they're not particularly fond of "I'm Thinking of Ending Things". There's a couple others like "Emma." that could sneak in, but I think that's got a better shot at Costumes. I'm a little skeptical of "Ma Rainey...", but I think there's enough there, and they had to recreate that from scratch. "Da 5 Bloods", maybe, but I think that might be sixth. 

PRODUCTION DESIGN (PREDICTIONS) 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank

News of the World

Tenet

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Gold Derby has "Mulan" and "The Father" having decent odd. "Mulan", maybe, but "The Father" confuses me a bit. I mean the set decoration is strong, but that movie mostly takes place in the same room and it's a modern room, not like "Ma Rainey...", which had to recreate a period era recording studio. 

ORIGINAL SCORE (Shortlist)

"Ammonite"

"Blizzard of Souls"

"Da 5 Bloods"

"The Invisible Man"

"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

"The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)

"The Little Things"

"Mank"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Minari"

"Mulan"

"News of the World"

"Soul"

"Tenet"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

There's a few awards for the Score category these days, and even a Guild now the SCL, the Society of Composers and Lyricists. That said, main awards have basically kept to the same few films this year. "Mank" and "Soul" are guarantees for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, two newest members of the rare duo of being an Oscar winner and a Rock & Roll Hall of Famer (There's only eleven others that have that honor, although now that I'm thinking about it, not sure how Bernie Taupin isn't one of them right now. R&RHOF, get on that!!!!) Other then that, eh, "Blizzard of Souls" could be a spoiler, I guess. "The Midnight Sky" got a Globe nomination, although I know people who hate that Score, for some reason; I'm not really sure why. (Shrugs) We'll see. 

ORIGINAL SCORE (PREDICTIONS)

Mank-Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross

Minari-Emile Mosseri

News of the World-James Newton Howard

Soul-Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

Tenet-Ludvig Goransson

I think if there's something else that can get in here, "Da 5 Bloods" makes sense, although they honored Terence Blanchard finally a couple years ago for "Black Panther", so they don't need to here, although it'd be nice to see him get in for a Spike lee film, but I do know if it matters; it feels like "Soul"'s Oscar anyway, with perhaps "News of the World" playing spoiler. 

ORIGINAL SONG (Shortlist)

"Turntables"-"All In: The Fight for Democracy"

"See What You've Done"-"Belly of the Beast"

"Wuhan Flu"-"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazahkstan"

"Husavik"-"Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"

"Never Break"-"Giving Voice"

"Make It Work"-"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

"Fight for You"-"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Io Si (Seen)"-"The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)"

"Rain Song"-"Minari"

"Show me Your Soul"-"Mr. Soul!"

"Loyal Brave True"-"Mulan"

"Free"-"The One and Only Ivan"

"Speak Now"-"One Night in Miami..."

"Green"-"Sound of Metal"

"Hear My Voice"-"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

There's a few award for this category, but I tend to actually just listen to as many of the songs as I can find and make my mind up that way. It's not always accurate but I like that strategy. Now, normally I'd complain that they do shortlists for this and the Score categories, but  I did find a list this year of all the eligible songs and scores, and besides I really need that for my own awards, not for this, and yeah, I prefer only listening to fifteen songs. Still, there's a few favorite here. "Speak Now" from "One Night in Miami..." seems like the heavy favorite, with a couple comedy songs in "Husavik" and "Wuhan Flu" seeming to be the second choices. I really hope the latter doesn't get in. I mean, it's hilarious, but so disturbing. I also have to say that its nice to see a lot of big music stars in this category again. We had a long run where we didn't see that, but we're getting back to it now, and I think that's a good thing. Although I think overall, eh, this is an okay group of song. Not quite bad, better then mediocre, but not great. 

ORIGINAL SONG (PREDICTIONS)

"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"

"Never Break"-Giving Voice

"Make It Work"-Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

"Io Si (Seen)"-The Life Ahead

"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami

I'm not paying too much attention to the awards here, although I think "Husavik" winning Song from the CSL probably helps it more then others think, but I liked these songs the best and I tend to just trust my ear on this category. 

SOUND (Possible, longlist)

"Ammonite"

"Bacurau"

"Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn"

"Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to Make Benefit Once Glorious nation of Kazahkstan"

"The Boys in the Band"

"Cherry"

"Crip Camp"

"The Croods: A New Age"

"Da 5 Bloods"

"David Attenborough: A Life On Our Planet"

"The Devil All the Time"

"The Dig"

"The Disciple"

"Emma"

"Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"

"First Cow"

"The Forty-Year-Old Version"

"The Father"

"French Exit"

"The Glorias"

"Greyhound"

"The High Note"

"Hillbilly Elegy"

"His House"

"I Am Woman"

"I'm No Longer Here"

"I'm Your Woman"

"The Invisible Man"

"Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey"

"John Lewis: Good Trouble"

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Kajillionaire"

"The King of Staten Island"

"La Llorona"

"Land"

"The Life Ahead" 

"The Little Things"

"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

"Malcolm and Marie"

"Mank"

"The Mauritanian"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Minari"

"Mulan"

"My Octopus Teacher"

"The Nest"

"News of the World"

"Nomadland"

"On the Rocks"

"One Night in Miami"

"Onward"

"The Outpost"

"Over the Moon"

"Palm Springs"

"The Personal History of David Copperfield"

"Pieces of a Woman"

"Possessor"

"The Prom"

"Promising Young Woman"

"Radioactive"

"Rebuilding Paradise"

"Roald Dahl's The Witches"

"Saint Maud"

"Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon"

"The Social Dilemma"

"Soul"

"Sound of Metal"

"Supernova"

"Tenet"

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"Trolls World Tour"

"The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

"Wander Darkly"

"The White Tiger"

"Wild Mountain Thyme"

"Wolfwalkers"

"Wonder Woman 1984"

Unlike the Production Design category where we added a Guild, the Sound category, took away an award. No more separating the category into Sound Design and Sound Mixing, which I know nobody in the real world knows the difference, but honestly they are separate skills, they are different, and I don't like the change. I get why they did it, but I hope in the future when we get back to normal they rethink that, or maybe add a Casting category like they should've a long-ass time ago. Anyway, as to those Guilds,  well "Sound of Metal" is the obvious favorite and likely winner. Everything else, kinda up in the air. The Sound Mixers went with that along with "News of the World', "The Trial of the Chicago 7", "Mank" and somewhat surprisingly "Greyhound" in their main category, and I don't want to overlook "Soul" in the animated category either. All those films got nominations from the Editors too, but they have a shitton of other nominees to sort through. "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" got two nominations, and that's a music film, something the Sound categories tend to like. They also like war and battle and action stuff. "Greyhound" fits there, so does "Wonder Woman 1984" which got a couple nominations. 

SOUND (PREDICTIONS) 

Greyhound

News of the World

Soul

Sound of Metal

Tenet

Ehh, I suspect "Ma Rainey's..." gonna get snubbed somewhere and this seems like the place. There's two music nominees in here already and we really don't know yet how the combination vote changes. The Mixers tended to be more music based, while the Editors tended to be more action based, even though that really should've been the other way around. The both liked "Greyhound" a lot, I through "Soul" in, we'll see. This is the most intriguing category this year, although this really should be two categories, at least.

VISUAL EFFECTS (Shortlist)

"Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn"

"Bloodshot"

"Love and Monsters"

"Mank"

"The Midnight Sky"

"Mulan"

"The One and Only Ivan"

"Soul"

"Tenet"

"Welcome to Chechnya"

A tricky category here strangely doesn't add up compared to the VES Awards. "Welcome to Chechnya" is particularly odd here since that's a documentary feature; particularly unusual to see that pop up in Visual Effects. "Birds of Prey..." and "Love and Monsters" didn't show up anywhere at the Guild awards, so I'm gonna eliminate them offhand for now, but sorting through the awards

VISUAL EFFECTS (PREDICTIONS)

Bloodshot

The Midnight Sky

Mulan

Soul

Tenet

Tough categary this year. I decided to just trust the VES and went with movies that got multiple nominations except for "Tenet" which only got one, but it was in the main category. Don't be surprised if the much-maligned "The Midnight Sky" ends up winning this btw. 

ANIMATED SHORT FILM (Shortlist)

"Burrow"

"Genius Loci"

"If Anything Happens I Love You"

"Kapaemahu"

"Opera"

"Out"

"The Snail and the Whale"

"To Gerard"

"Traces"

"Yes-People"

Believe it or not, I do try to watch as many fo the shorts as I can and I check out the trailers of all these if I can't see them. I managed to watch a few of these. "Burrow" was cute, "If Anything Happens I Love You" was, just horribly sad; holy god, that one's depressing. "Kapaemahu" and "Traces" were pretty cool, and "Out" was my favorite of these. Among the rest, "The Snail and the Whale" seems pretty locked in; there's a lot of big names attached to that one. 

ANIMATED SHORT FILM (PREDICTIONS)

Burrow

If Anything Happens I Love You

Kapaemahu

Out

The Snail and the Whale

I know it's a little lazy to just go with most of the ones I saw, but I find that's usually not a terrible approach, since, if I could find them, then the voters definitely could. I'm a little concerned for "Yes-People" and possibly "Opera", that got a pretty good odds on Gold Derby, but I didn't really get it from the trailer I saw.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM (Shortlist)

"Bittu"

"Da Yie"

"Feeling Through"

"The Human Voice"

"The Kicksled Choir"

"The Letter Room"

"The Present"

"Two Distant Strangers"

"The Van"

"White Eye"

As with the animated shorts, I try to watch any of the Live Action shorts as I can. I watched "Feeling Through", which, I thought was okay, I didn't love it though. I liked "The Human Voice" a little more, but I didn't love it, despte some big names behind that one. "The Letter Room" also has some big stars and names behind it. That usually helps in this category, but not always. "The Van" is a little bit more obscure and obtuse, but I enjoyed that one as well. Other then that, I ran through the trailers see what I thought look good and/or would appeal to the Academy.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM (PREDICTIONS)

Da Yie

The Human Voice

The Letter Room

The Present

Two Distant Strangers

I ended up ironically going with the top 5 ranked by Gold Derby; I didn't intend that, and it has me nervous since this category goes with the oddds, but I'm gonna stick to my gut here. 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT (Shortlist)

"Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa"

"Call Center Blues"

"Colette"

"A Concerto is a Conversation"

"Do Not Split"

"Hunger Ward"

"Hysterical Girl"

"A Love Song for Latasha"

"The Speed Cubers"

"What Would Sophia Loren Do"

I'm actually able to find quite all of the Documentary Short Subjects to watch; they're pretty readily available. Although fair warning, a lot of these are difficult to watch. Sometimes the issue with this category, as well as the issue with the Featur documentary category is that ist seems we're judging the films based on what societal ill do we think is the worst sin against humanity as opposed to finding the best documentary, whatever that may entail. I don't think that's particularly great to be honest; these are movies, they should amung all else, be entertaining, however, and thankfully, most of these are. That doesn't make them positive or fun movies, I don't need to be happy to be entertained. 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT (PREDICTIONS)

Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa

Do Not Split

Hysterical Girl

A Love Song for Latasha

The Speed Cubers

I actually preferred "Call Center Blues" over "Abortion Helpline..." although I liked both of them a lot; they're actually fairly similar subject matters, both dealing with call centers employees, but I suspect "Abortion Helpline...", is gonna be the more prominent title. (Sometimes it's simply the more interesting title as opposed to the best film.) I can see others getting in; actually there's no real dud here, the only ones I thought were just, not entertaining enough were "Colette", which was a good Holocaust short, and "Hunger Ward", which was about the Civil War famine in Yemen, and I wouldn't call either of these shorts bad, but I had trouble watching them. I also admit to enjoying "What Would Sophia Loren Do", that's a fun little, delightful short, and Sophia could be an outside nominee this year for "The Life Ahead", and I think it could get nominated especially since it's film people voting, but I can't take it too seriously as a contender, but it's fun. 

Alright, that's my predictions, not preference, predictions for the nominees. I got about three hours of sleep to get before the nominees are announced, so I'll wake up in about seven hours and I'll write and post my analyses of the nominees in, eh, a few days or so from now. I'm not in a rush this year and I got things to do but they'll be done later.